Tropics Update (1)

7/31/2019 Tropics Update (1)

1/31

Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite Image


2/31

NHC track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?5-daynlhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?5-daynl


3/31

WATCHES AND WARNINGS NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?radiihttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?radii


4/31

Model Tracks


5/31

Steering Currents


6/31

Model Intensity


7/31

sst
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?swath


8/31

WIND FIELD
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?swathhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?swathhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?tswind120


9/31

TS Wind Probability
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?tswind120http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?tswind120http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?table


10/31

Wind Probability Chart
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?tablehttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?table


11/31

radar
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=tae&gc=2


12/31
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=tae&gc=2


13/31

ObservedRainfall Past 24Hours


14/31

Forecast Rainfall AmountsThrough Tomorrow Morning


15/31

Forecast Rainfall AmountsWednesday Morning through Thursday Morning


16/31

RiverForecast


17/31


18/31


19/31


20/31


21/31

Severe Weather Outlook Tuesday


22/31

Sustained Wind Forecast

11am Tuesday 5pm Tuesday


23/31

Wind Gust Forecast

11am Tuesday 5pm Tuesday


24/31

Sustained Wind Forecast

11pm Tuesday 5am Wednesday


25/31

Wind Gust Forecast

11pm Tuesday 5am Wednesday


26/31

Wave Forecast

Today Tonight


27/31

StormSurge

Probabilities

C l/S h l id i d


28/31

West Central/Southwest Florida Wind Impact

LowMinimum Action - Prepare for the possibility of minor to locally

moderate wind damage.

Potential Impact - If realized, expect a low but notable impact tocommunities in the specified area. Winds capable of causing minordamage to frame built homes, primarily due to loss of shingles orgutters. Mobile homes will experience minor to moderate damagewill loss of roof covering possible. Most weaker trees will beuprooted with large limbs likely breaking from larger trees.Scattered power outages will occur. Moderate

Threat - A significant threat to life and property; the reasonablechance for strong tropical storm force winds (58 to 73 mph).

W t C t l/S th t Fl id C t l Fl d I t


29/31

West Central/Southwest Florida Coastal Flood Impact

ModerateMinimum Action - Prepare for the possibility of moderate coastal flooddamage.

Potential Impact - If realized, expect a moderate impact to communities in thespecified area. Coastal flood waters capable of causing moderate inundation

likely. Non-elevated homes will likely become inundated in flood prone areas.Entire flood-prone coastal communities will be temporarily cutoff. In somesituations elevated water levels may extend a couple miles inland from thecoast, especially in the Florida Big Bend. Coastal residents of one story homeswho do not evacuate will face life-threatening consequences; those in multi-story or multi-unit facilities risk being cut off by the flooding. Parked vehicleswill be severely damaged or float away in the flood zone. Conditions will beworsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage.Beach erosion will be substantial, and require months to clean up.

Threat - A critical threat to life and property; the reasonable chance forcombined storm surge and tide resulting in sea water inundation of 6 to 7 feet.

LowMinimum Action - Prepare for the possibility of minor to locallymoderate coastal flood damage.

Potential Impact - If realized, expect a low but notable impact to communities

in the specified area. Coastal flood waters capable of causing minor flooding of coastal communities. All residents living on prone shorelines can expect somewater incursion near or into their homes. Those in typically flood prone areasmay have a foot or two of water in their homes, causing minor damage.Shoreline roads may briefly close or become cut off. Moderate beach erosion ispossible, becoming extensive if conditions extend through multiple high tidecycles. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves willincrease the likelihood of property damage, especially to structures on theshoreline.

Threat - A significant threat to life and property; the reasonable chance forcombined storm surge and tide resulting in sea water inundation of 4 to 5 feet.

W t C t l/S th t Fl id I l d Fl d I t


30/31

West Central/Southwest Florida Inland Flood Impact LowMinimum Action - Prepare for the possibility of minor inlandflooding.Potential Impact - If realized, expect a low but notable impact

to communities within the specified area. Several locationsmay experience minor inland flooding with highest floodwaters capable of causing minor property damage, primarilylimited to poorly draining areas. Known vulnerableintersections may flood.Threat - A significant threat to life and property; thereasonable chance for highest rainfall totals to exceedamounts conducive for (flash) flooding.

W t C t l/S th t Fl id T d I t


31/31

West Central/Southwest Florida Tornado Impact

LowThreat - An elevated threat to life and property;tornadoes and waterspouts are possible, but lesslikely to occur than to occur.

Minimum Action - Prepare for the chance of widelyscattered tornadoes.

Potential Impact - If realized, a low but notableimpact to communities within the specified area.Several locations may experience minor tomoderate tornado damage.

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Tropics Update (1)