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Transportation Vision and Challenges for the FutureTransportation Vision and Challenges for the FutureChallenges for the Future

– Industry PerspectiveChallenges for the Future

– Industry Perspective

C Mi h l W lt Ph D P EC Mi h l W lt Ph D P EC. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E.C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E.The University of Texas at AustinThe University of Texas at Austin

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“We have two classes of “We have two classes of forecasters: forecasters: Those who don’t know Those who don’t know –– and and those who don’t know they those who don’t know they d ’t k ”d ’t k ”don’t know”don’t know”

John Kenneth GalbraithJohn Kenneth Galbraith

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Transportation Trends 2030

Transportation Trends 2030

World population will grow ~40 percentWorld population will grow ~40 percent60 t ill li i iti ith th 1060 t ill li i iti ith th 1060 percent will live in cities with more than 10 60 percent will live in cities with more than 10 million people or moremillion people or more20 percent of the population in the industrialized 20 percent of the population in the industrialized world will be over 65world will be over 65Number of vehicles in world will increase from Number of vehicles in world will increase from 730 million to ~ 1+ billion730 million to ~ 1+ billion730 million to 1 billion730 million to 1 billionDomestic and international marine trade will Domestic and international marine trade will more than doublemore than doubleNumber of airline passengers will triple and air Number of airline passengers will triple and air carriercarrier operations will doubleoperations will double

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Growth is not uniform: Market shifts are coming and will affect U.S. trade and transportation

(Country GDP Rank in Billions of Real (2003) U.S. Dollars)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. China

Japan Japan China China China U.S.Germany Germany Japan Japan India India

U.K. U.K. Germany India Japan Japan

France China U.K. Russia Russia Brazil

Italy France India U.K. Brazil Russia

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc

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China Italy France Germany U.K. U.K.

Brazil India Russia France Germany Germany

India Russia Italy Brazil France France

Russia Brazil Brazil Italy Italy ItalySource: Global Insight World Service and Goldman Sachs

Miles of New “Interstate” Quality Highways to Be Constructed, 2000-2020

Miles of New “Interstate” Quality Highways to Be Constructed, 2000-2020

42 00042,000

25,000

20,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

2,980 1,130

05,000

10,00015,00020,000

China India Europe U.S.Source: The World Bank, India's Ministry of Finance, The European Commission, and ARTBA calculations

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The Competitive ChallengeThe Competitive Challenge

CHINACHINA

““N ti l T t ti Hi h S t ” $150BN ti l T t ti Hi h S t ” $150B““National Transportation Highway System”: $150B National Transportation Highway System”: $150B investmentinvestment

1989: 168 miles of expressway1989: 168 miles of expressway2001: 10,000 miles of expressway2001: 10,000 miles of expressway2005: 25,480 miles of expressway2005: 25,480 miles of expressway

12/04 announcement: “7918 Highway Network” 12/04 announcement: “7918 Highway Network” expansion to NTHSexpansion to NTHS

Goal 52 000 e press a miles b 2020 connect all citiesGoal 52 000 e press a miles b 2020 connect all citiesGoal: 52,000 expressway miles by 2020, connect all cities Goal: 52,000 expressway miles by 2020, connect all cities with population over 200,000with population over 200,000

China highway investment in 2001: 2.5% of GDPChina highway investment in 2001: 2.5% of GDP(0.3% average through 1980s)

Today: 9% of GDPToday: 9% of GDP

US highway investment: ~1% of GDPUS highway investment: ~1% of GDP

The Competitive ChallengeThe Competitive Challenge

INDIAINDIANational Highway Development Project: $50B National Highway Development Project: $50B g y p j $g y p j $investmentinvestment

Improve 40,000 miles of expresswayImprove 40,000 miles of expressway1999: Enacted national gas & diesel tax; created Central 1999: Enacted national gas & diesel tax; created Central Road Fund trust fundRoad Fund trust fund

EUROPEAN UNIONEUROPEAN UNION““30 Priority Axes”:30 Priority Axes”: 2005 European Commission identified 30 2005 European Commission identified 30

i i l i l l ii i l i l l i d l i id l i icritical transnational multicritical transnational multi--modal transportation improvement modal transportation improvement projectsprojects

$300B investment from EU and member states$300B investment from EU and member statesMore than 1/3 of projects ALREADY UNDERWAYMore than 1/3 of projects ALREADY UNDERWAY

TENTEN--T Plan:T Plan: By 2020 expanding existing road network by 2,976 By 2020 expanding existing road network by 2,976 miles, rail by 7,750 miles + substantial additional highway, rail and miles, rail by 7,750 miles + substantial additional highway, rail and inland waterway improvementsinland waterway improvements

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1000

Energy and GDP Growth Closely LinkedEnergy and GDP Growth Closely Linked

N AmericaN America

1970-202000

Peo

ple

10

100

W EuropeW Europe

LALA

E EuropeE Europe

N AmericaN America

APAP

AF/MEAF/ME

sing

Ene

rgy

-BD

OE

Per 1

00

Corporate Planning

11 10 100

Increasing Income - $K GDP/Capita

Incr

eas

1000

Vehicle Penetration Follows a PatternVehicle Penetration Follows a PatternHistorical data through 2002Historical data through 2002

U.SU.S

West EuropeWest EuropeEast EuropeEast EuropeN. E. AsiaN. E. Asia

1

10

100

Vehi

cles

per

100

0 pe

ople SingaporeSingapore

IndiaIndiaSouth KoreaSouth Korea

L AmericaL AmericaHong KongHong Kong

Corporate Planning

0100 1000 10000 100000

Income per Capita (Purchasing Power Parity - 1993)

ChinaChinaTypical saturation profileTypical saturation profile

0.10.1

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1000

Vehicle Penetration Follows a PatternVehicle Penetration Follows a PatternHistory plus View to 2050History plus View to 2050

1

10

100

Vehi

cles

per

100

0 pe

ople

JapanJapan 610610South KoreaSouth Korea 550550SingaporeSingapore 150150

Saturation LevelSaturation LevelU.S.U.S. 890890W. EuropeW. Europe 470-630470-630

Corporate Planning

0100 1000 10000 100000

Income per Capita (Purchasing Power Parity - 1993)

ChinaChina 150150IndiaIndia 140140

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GlobalTransportation System

ChallengesChallenges

1 of 2

Human and social costs (e.g., fatalities, Human and social costs (e.g., fatalities, injuries)injuries)Exploding global population and congestionExploding global population and congestionAging populationAging populationEnergyEnergyExpanding trade and tourismExpanding trade and tourismggGlobalization and economic competitivenessGlobalization and economic competitivenessEnvironmental concerns / sustainabilityEnvironmental concerns / sustainabilityTerrorist threatsTerrorist threatsAdvanced technologyAdvanced technologyMassive InfrastructureMassive Infrastructure

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GlobalTransportation System

OpportunitiesOpportunities

2 of 2

Eliminate transportationEliminate transportation--related deaths, injuries related deaths, injuries and crashesand crashesProvide access and mobilityProvide access and mobilityReduce travel time, cost and increase reliability Reduce travel time, cost and increase reliability of travelof travelIncrease throughput of people and freightIncrease throughput of people and freightIncrease throughput of people and freight Increase throughput of people and freight regardless of weather conditionsregardless of weather conditionsEliminate environmental emissions, noise, and Eliminate environmental emissions, noise, and carbon footprintcarbon footprintEnhance system securityEnhance system securityAdvanced technology (e.g., information, nano)Advanced technology (e.g., information, nano)

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The Vehicle is the SensorThe Vehicle is the Sensor

Maybach 57Maybach 57

Vehicle location

Maybach 57Maybach 57

Vehicle locationDestinationTrafficSpeedRoad surfaceWeather…

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VII Can Enable a Wide Range of ApplicationsVII Can Enable a Wide Range of Applications

VehicleInfrastructureIntegration

Work Zone ManagementWork Zone ManagementWork Zone ManagementWork Zone Management Traveler Traveler InformationInformation

Traveler Traveler InformationInformation

Weather SensingWeather Sensing

Intersection Collision Intersection Collision AvoidanceAvoidance

Commercial Commercial ApplicationsApplicationsCommercial Commercial ApplicationsApplications

…for example

VII ConceptVII ConceptPrivate Sector UsesVII

Infrastructure

Signal Phase d Ti i

Real Time Network Data

Situation Relevant Information

E-payment

Infrastructure Network

Probe Data

and TimingSafety

Communications

Instrumented Roadside

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Vision for the FutureVision for the Future

The ultimate vision for theThe ultimate vision for the

Conclusion

The ultimate vision for the The ultimate vision for the future is the transformation of future is the transformation of surface transportation into an surface transportation into an effectively managed, welleffectively managed, well--integrated universally availableintegrated universally availableintegrated, universally available integrated, universally available and affordable systemand affordable system

Themes

As a result of technological change and As a result of technological change and globalization, the mix of jobs in the U.S. is globalization, the mix of jobs in the U.S. is g jg jchanging rapidly.changing rapidly.

Jobs that can be described as following a Jobs that can be described as following a sequence of rules are disappearing, either through sequence of rules are disappearing, either through automation or by moving to lowerautomation or by moving to lower--wage countries.wage countries.

Increasingly important are jobs that require expert Increasingly important are jobs that require expert thinking and/or complex communicationthinking and/or complex communicationthinking and/or complex communication.thinking and/or complex communication.

The problem created by technical change is not an The problem created by technical change is not an insufficient number of jobs, but a mismatch insufficient number of jobs, but a mismatch between skill demands and skill supply, with between skill demands and skill supply, with dramatic consequences for the distribution of dramatic consequences for the distribution of earnings.earnings.

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Prospects for the FutureProspects for the Future

Investment in all infrastructure areas is critical to the future of the U.S.critical to the future of the U.S.Case will not be made on engineering criteria / studiesBroader implications and economics are key (i.e., the business case)Stakeholders and the business community ymust be educated and involvedEvaluation of system performance versus funding scenarios may helpNew financing mechanisms may be needed

Strategies

Utilization of Existing Infrastructure Encourage Technologyg

Add Physical Infrastructure

Increase Operating Throughput

Corridor Approach for Investing

Develop Agile Freight Operations

Improve Clearance at Gateways

g gy

Integration of Information

ITS Applications

Increase Public Awareness

Improve Institutional Relationships

Improve Freight ProfileImprove Clearance at Gateways

Attention to Connectors

Improve Freight Profile

Partnerships

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“Trucks of the future will have only a “Trucks of the future will have only a d d t b dd d t b dman, a dog and a computer on board. man, a dog and a computer on board.

The computer will be there to control The computer will be there to control the truck, the man will be there to the truck, the man will be there to watch the gauges, and the dog will be watch the gauges, and the dog will be there to bite the man if he attempts tothere to bite the man if he attempts tothere to bite the man if he attempts to there to bite the man if he attempts to touch anything”touch anything”

Allan Kirson, MotorolaAllan Kirson, Motorola

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C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E.C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E., ,Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering

Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental EngineeringThe University of Texas at Austin

1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712

512-471-1414cmwalton@mail.utexas.edu

, ,Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering

Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental EngineeringThe University of Texas at Austin

1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712

512-471-1414cmwalton@mail.utexas.edu