TRACKING THE DRAMATIC PIVOT OF U.S. CONSUMER AND … · 4/3/2020 · • Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™Panel • IRI Surveys Analyzed by: IRI Proprietary Self

April 3, 2020

TRACKING THE DRAMATIC PIVOT OF U.S. CONSUMER AND SHOPPER BEHAVIOR

COVID-19 and the Economy

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Executive Summary

• F&B stock up continued as non-food stockpiling across health and home care showed signs of easing.• Consumers are purchasing more fresh foods to offset shelf stable pantry items.• Sales of beverage alcohol and tobacco are also now rising in large format channels.• While pantry stocking trips are driving the strongest growth, all trip types ― fill-in, special purpose

and quick trips have increased substantially as shoppers work to get all of their needs met.• E-commerce sales continue strong growth, but lost share of total omnichannel in the past few weeks

as shoppers relied on brick & mortar stores for panic stock-up.

• Self care is becoming even more mainstream during this pandemic, with leading self care categories

such as thermometers, sanitizing wipes, immunity products, disposable gloves, and hand sanitizers

boosting buyers by more than 100%.

• Increased focus on self care may become the “new normal” as we emerge from the pandemic.

• Financially vulnerable consumer segments, such as “downtrodden” and “start-ups,” are even

more concerned about COVID-19 and the potential health and economic impact than the

average consumer.

• This concern is driving intense focus on preparedness, including stock up on food, OTC medications

and immunity support, even as these consumers struggle to afford groceries.


F&B, Nonedibles Spiked in MULO When Reported Cases Spread to Most States;

F&B Continued to Accelerate Slightly in Latest Week, While Nonedibles Slowed

Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 F&B

01-19-2001-05-20 03-22-2002-16-2001-12-20 02-09-20 03-15-2001-26-20 02-23-2002-02-20 03-01-20 03-08-20

Total Store

Nonedibles

6 month F&B growth benchmark (+2.2%)

Fresh

Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total E-commerce

• March 25 – U.S. becomes new epicenter of COVID-19,

surpassing China and Italy in cases

• March 27 – U.S. passes CARES Act, injecting $2T into economy

• March 31 – U.S. reports >165,000 cases of COVID-19Jan 2020 lapping double SNAP payments in Jan 2019

Feb 2020 lapping no SNAP payment in Feb 2019

% Change vs. Prior

Week

Total Store: -4.9%

F&B ex Fresh: -1.4%

Fresh: -3.4%

Nonedibles: -11.7%


Convenience & Gas F&B Sales Slipped into Decline

in the Latest Week, While MULO Continued to Accelerate

Dollar % Change vs. YA // F&B // Total U.S. MULO vs. C&G // TSV Model

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

02-16-20 3/22/202001-05-20 01-19-2001-12-20 02-02-2001-26-20 02-09-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 3/15/2020

6 month MULO F&B benchmark (+2.2%)

6 month C&G F&B benchmark (+4.3%)

F&B C&G

F&B MULO


• March 23 – 9 states impose stay-at-home restrictions: CA,

OR, WA, LA, IL, OH, NY, MA, CT

• March 26 – 12 additional states have stay-at-home

restrictions: ID, CO, NM, WI, MI, IN, KY, WV, VT, RI, NJ, HI

• March 30 – 9 additional states have stay-at-home restrictions

for a total of 30 states: MT, AK, MN, NC, NH, VA, MD, KS, DEJan 2020 lapping double SNAP payments in Jan 2019

Feb 2020 lapping no SNAP payment in Feb 2019


COVID-19 Impact on People and Policy Continues to Evolve,

Driving Massive Shifts in Purchase and Shopping Behavior

People Policy

The U.S. Passed $2.2T

Source: *https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus; **https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

COVID-19 cases every in the U.S.DOUBLE 3 DAYS

Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security

CARES Stimulus Act

30 13 7stay at home partial restrictions no directives

# of States / Directives

to Refrain from Non-Essential Domestic Travel thru Mid-April

CDC Urges Residents of

NYNJ

CT

>200,000U.S. COVID-19 Cases

with nearly 5,000 deaths, more than mainland China

because of COVID-19, as of April 2

~10MMFiled for Unemployment

People

~900,000Global COVID-19 Cases

as of April 1


In This Issue of IRI’s COVID-19 Report

Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal and

COVID-19 Dashboard for more reports and updates.

To create this report, IRI leveraged data and analytics from various

proprietary retail, market, consumer and shopper assets, including:

• IRI Point of Sale Data, including Fresh data

• IRI E-Market Insights®

• Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™ Panel

• IRI Surveys Analyzed by: IRI Proprietary Self Care Segmentation

and IRI EconoLink® Segmentation

IRI conducts weekly consumer surveys among primary grocery shoppers aged 18+, representative of the U.S. population.

PURCHASE & SHOPPING BEHAVIOR

SELF-CARE

CONSUMER ATTITUDES

WHAT TO EXPECT

IRI COVID-19

COVID-19 dashboard



Panic

Buying

Tipping

Point

Non-Foods Stock-Up Eases After Initial Spike During the Week of March 8,

But Consumers Are Still Buying More than They Did Pre-COVID-19

Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

After spiking mid-March, growth rates decelerated for

health, home and beauty in the latest week, suggesting

some slowing of non-foods stock-up; frozen drove food

gains as both beverage alcohol and tobacco surged.

03-01-2002-02-2001-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-09-20 02-16-20

TOBACCO

02-23-20 3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020

FROZEN

BEVERAGE ALCOHOL

BEV

GENERAL FOOD

REFRIG

GENERAL MERCH

BEAUTY

HEALTH

HOME CARE



Perishables Like Meat Drove Growth Similar to

Center-Store / Frozen as Meals Turned to At-Home

Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh

GENERAL FOOD

FRESH & PROCESSED MEAT

FROZEN

BEVERAGES

DAIRY

FRESH PRODUCE

REFRIGERATED

LIQUOR

FRESH & PACKAGE BAKERY

*FRESH DELI

FRESH SEAFOOD

87.0%

94.0%

94.0%

49.0%

60.0%

30.0%

73.0%

57.0%

37.0%

1.0%

21.0%

16.0%

15.0%

16.0%

12.0%

11.0%

6.0%

13.0%

12.0%

6.0%

2.0%

7.0%

23%

9%

8%

8%

7%

6%

6%

4%

3%

2%

1%

$ Sales % ChgWE 3-22-20

Share of Total Store Sales WE 3-22-20

YTD 2020

Source: IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Including Random-Weight; IRI Survey fielded 3/13-3/15 and 3/20-3/22, 2020, among NCP representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery

As the data in

the chart

confirms, 15%

of survey

respondents

report they’re

purchasing

more fresh

foods; up 7

percentage

points from a

week prior.

*Fresh Deli includes random weight lunch meat,

deli cheese and deli prepared foods only.


U.S. E-commerce Growth Rates Accelerated Significantly in Past Weeks

Dollar % Change vs. YA, Total E-commerce

Non Edible

Edible

Total Store

33% 33% 33%

38%

29% 25% 28%25%

33%

39%

75%

44% 43%

36%

37% 34%31%

37%

33%

34%38%

95%

28% 29% 31%

38%

26% 22% 24%21%

32%

39%

67%

01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, Total Store is an aggregate of the 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Baseline is based on L26 Weeks Ending 3/22/2020


Panic Buying in

Brick & Mortar

While E-commerce Sales Have Grown Over the Past Few Weeks,

E-commerce’s Share of Omni-Channel Sales is Slightly Decreasing

Total E-commerce Share of Omni-Channel

16.2 16.217.2 17.5

16.816.0 15.7

16.7 17.315.9

14.1

8.8 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.98.8 8.6 8.2

7.3

28.3 28.7

31.5 31.330.5

29.3 29.6 29.9 30.3

27.4

25.4

01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20

Non

Edible

Edible

Total

Store

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Omni-Channel = Total U.S. Multi Outlet + Total E-commerce


0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20

Beverages Department General Food Department General Merchandise Department

Health Department Home Care Department

E-commerce: General Food, Home Care, General

Merchandise Have the Strongest Growth

Dollar % Change vs. YA, Total E-commerce

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, Departments are aggregates of the 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories based on IRIs Syndicated Departments

Health

Home Care

General Food

General Merch

Beverages


Edible Continues to Have a Much Higher Proportion of Pick-Up and Delivery

Share of E-commerce Dollar Sales by Fulfillment Type

39% 42% 45% 43% 40% 41% 42% 42% 43% 40% 38%

39% 39% 38% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 43%

22% 19% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19%

1/5/2020 1/12/2020

Pickup

3/1/20201/19/2020 2/9/2020

Delivery

3/8/2020

Home

Shipment

1/26/2020 2/2/2020 2/16/2020 2/23/2020 3/15/2020

91% 92% 93% 93% 93% 92% 92% 93% 92% 91% 89%

8%

1/12/20201/5/2020 2/2/20201/19/2020 2/9/2020

7%

2/23/2020 3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/15/2020

Delivery

Pickup

2% 6%

Home

Shipment

6% 6%6%2%5% 6% 2%

2/16/2020

6%5%

1/26/2020

3%2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%5%

Nonedible

Edible

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories and retailers where fulfillment can be determined.


Consumers are Making Both More Trips and Larger Baskets in Recent Weeks

Total U.S. All Outlets Consumer Purchasing Dynamics

3%

13%

64%

61%

3/1

3/8

3/15

3/22

4%

10%

39%

39%

3/1

3/15

3/8

3/22

-3%

-1%

14%

12%

3/1

3/15

3/8

3/22

1%

2%

4%

2%

3/1

3/8

3/15

3/22

1%

2%

1%3/22

3/1

3/8

3/15 0%

Dollar Sales

% Change vs. YA

Trips per Household

% chg. vs. YA

Household Buyers

% chg. vs. YA

Units per Trip

% chg. vs. YA

Price per Unit

% chg. vs. YAWe

ek e

nd

ing

$16.4 B

$17.9 B

$25.2 B

$24.3 B

Actuals

4.3

4.6

5.9

5.9

Actuals

115.1M

115.6M

117.4M

114.5M

Actuals

9.5

9.7

10.7

10.4

Actuals

$3.48

$3.45

$3.42

$3.47

Actuals

Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.


Pantry Stocking Trips Grew Most, but Smaller Trips

Are Also Growing Significantly vs. Last Year

354

(51%)

W/e 1

Mar 2020

Special Purpose

262

(53%)

111

(17%)

88

(16%)

79

(15%)

346

(52%)

72

(15%)

283

(53%)

77

(16%)

82

(17%)

110

(16%)

108

(16%)84

(16%)

W/e 8

Mar 2020

116

(17%)

W/e 15

Mar 2020

107

(16%)

107

(16%)

W/e 22

Mar 2020

Pantry Stocking

Fill In

Quick Trip

493

533

688670

Pantry

Stocking

trips grew

+65 vs. YA

Smaller

trips grew

38% vs. YA

6.5

(40%)

3.8

(21%)

3.8

(21%)3.4

(21%)

3.2

(18%)3.0

(18%)

4.8

(20%)

7.1

(40%)

4.3

(18%)

3.4

(21%)

4.9

(19%)

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

11.2

(45%)

4.9

(19%)

4.2

(17%)

W/e 15

Mar 2020

10.4

(43%)

4.8

(20%)

W/e 22

Mar 2020

Pantry Stocking

Fill In

25.2

Special Purpose

Quick Trip

16.4

17.9

24.3

Spend in

Pantry

Stocking trips

grew +78

vs. YA

Spend in

smaller trips

grew 50%

vs. YA

DOLLAR SALES ($B) BY TRIP TYPE


TRIP COUNT BY TYPE (M)


Consumers Increased Nonedible Purchases Initially,

Followed by More Edible Spend in Recent Weeks

BUYERS (M HH’S) TRIPS PER BUYER DOLLARS PER TRIP UNITS PER TRIP

108

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

103

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

106 104

2.93.2

4.0 3.8

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

$21.77 $21.57 $21.68 $21.19

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

Nonedible

Edible

% Change vs. YA

3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 0.5%

% Change vs. YA

W/e 8

Mar 2020

113

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

112 115 112

3.4 3.6

4.7 4.8

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

$26.18 $26.48$29.78 $29.81

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

1.6% 2.0% 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% 8.2% 40.3% 42.4%

9.1 9.410.4 10.2

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

-2.5% -0.4% 15.2% 17.9% -3.6% -1.1% 14.5% 14.0%

0.4% 3.6% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 10.3% 38.4% 34.2% 0.7% 3.9% 5.3% 2.8%0.7% 3.9% 5.3% 2.8%

$26.18 $26.48$29.78 $29.81

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

-2.5% -0.4% 15.2% 17.9%



Packaged Food & Frozen Accounted for a Greater Share of Baskets Post COVID

Average Basket | Week Ending March 22, 2020

0.8

(3%)

1.3

(4%) 1.5

(5%)

9.3

(26%)

1.9

(6%)

2.5

(7%)

7.1

(23%)

2.1

(7%)

2.7

(7%)

1.5

(4%)

0.5

(2%)

2.7

(8%)

2.3

(8%)

2.4

(8%)

3.0

(10%)2019

1.1

(3%)

0.5

(1%)

1.6

(5%)

1.7

(5%)

1.7

(5%)

0.6

(2%)

3.2

(9%)

3.3

(9%)

3.4

(9%)2020

31.12.4

(8%)

1.0

(3%)

2.1

(7%)

35.7

2.9

(9%)

+15%

Frozen Foods

Cosmetics

OTC Healthcare

Baby Food + Care

Home Care

Paper Products

Pet Food + Care

Personal Care

Dairy

General Merchandise

Beverage

Packaged Food

Alcohol

Fresh Foods

Only Personal Care, Cosmetics and General

Merchandise declined vs. YA in average basket sales

Packaged Food accounted for greatest portion of the growth

in average basket size

Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel All Outlets data Week Ending 22 Mar 2020 vs. year ago

Nonedible Edible


Edible: Packaged Food, Beverages, Frozen Food Grew Buyers, Trips and Baskets

Latest Week Ending March 22, 2020

82

Frozen Foods Packaged Food

85

66

Beverage

10510091

Household Buyers (M) Basket Size ($)

Avg. Units per TripTrips per Buyer

11.512.8

8.4

13.1

15.6

8.9

Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage

3.2

5.4

3.03.4

6.6

3.1

Packaged FoodFrozen Foods Beverage

1.5

2.6

2.02.0

3.8

2.6

Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage

2019 2020

Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel All Outlets Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 vs. Year Ago


2019 2020

Nonedible: Paper Products and Home Care Grew Buyers and Trips,

While OTC Healthcare Drove Sizable Growth in Buyers, Trips and Baskets

Latest Week Ending March 22, 2020

Paper Products Home Care

47

OTC Healthcare

34

4745

6057

Avg. Units per TripTrips per Buyer

9.4 9.3

16.3

9.6 9.3

18.5

Paper Products OTC HealthcareHome Care

1.6

2.01.81.8

2.0 2.0

OTC HealthcarePaper Products Home Care

1.21.4 1.5

1.71.9

1.7

Paper Products OTC HealthcareHome Care

Household Buyers (M) Basket Size ($)

Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel All Outlets Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 vs. Year Ago


Spending During, After Recession Shows Consumers Gravitate to Comfort and

Personal Indulgence; Likely to Repeat in COVID-19-Induced Recession and After

Categories Performance During and Post-Recession | Volume Sales Impact (Percentage Points)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2.0-1.0-5.0 -2.0-3.0 5.0-8.0 0.0 1.0-4.0 3.0-15.0 7.04.0 6.0-7.0 8.0-6.0

Cold Cereal

Cookies

Chocolate Candy

Ice Cream/Sherbet

Soup

Crackers

Hand & Body Lotion

Yogurt

Lunch Meats

Coffee

Fresh Eggs

Baby Formula

Breakfast Meats

Vegetables - SS

Shortening & Oil

Spices/Seasonings

Canned/Bottled Fruit

Snack Bars/Granola Bars

Cigarettes

Toilet Tissue

Laundry Detergent

Dog Food

Vitamins

Diapers

Internal Analgesics

Dish Detergent

BladesSports Drinks

Skin Care

Food & Trash Bags

Soap

Batteries

Household Cleaner

Toothpaste

Carbonated Beverages

Sanitary Napkins/Tampons

Cups & Plates

Paper Towels

Deodorant

Air Fresheners

First Aid Accessories

Hair Coloring

Facial Tissue

MilkBeer/Cider

Fresh Bread & Rolls

Salty Snacks

Natural CheeseFrozen Entrees

Shampoo

Resu

rge

nce

Decli

ne

F&B

Non F&B

Source: IRI POS archived data FDMx (Food, Drug, Mass excluding Walmart). CY 2006-2011. IRI Consulting analysis.

Performance During Recession(Recession CAGR 2007-2009) – (Pre-Recession Growth Rate 2006-2007)

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e P

os

t R

ec

es

sio

n(P

ost-

Recessio

n G

row

th R

ate

2010

-2011)

–(P

re-R

ecessio

n G

row

th R

ate

2006

-2007)

Weak Strong



Social media has put a spotlight on

showing up at your best – and self

care helps many people achieve that.

SELF-IMAGE

With health care costs increasing, many are

taking extra steps to prevent and/or lessen

the severity of illness through self care.

LOWER HEALTHCARE COSTS

With the oldest Millennials approaching 40,

and the youngest Baby Boomers now in their

late 50’s, aging is a widespread motivator.

AGING

As the detrimental effects of stress

are better and more widely

understood, self care offers useful

tools and approaches to mitigate it.

STRESS REDUCTION

From reducing healthcare costs, to

ensuring our ability to work and care for

others, to enhancing longevity, illness

prevention provides myriad benefits that

go beyond feeling good.

ILLNESS PREVENTIONAccess to OTC products, health care

information and other products, services and

tools makes self care a convenient option for

those seeking wellness. Retailers are also

leading the way in offering one-stop wellness.

CONVENIENCE

IRI’s Self Care Segmentation is Based on

Core Motivators Around Health Management

Key Drivers of Self Care Segmentation


IRI’s Eight Self Care Segments Span a Range of

Proactive and Reactive Attitudes and Behaviors

PROACTIVE REACTIVE

Active Health Managers 8% Unconcerned Realists 9% Doctor, Doctor! 12%

Proactive Naturalists 12% Healthy Passives 20% Advice Seekers 15%Awakened & Dedicated 11%

Preventative Moderates 13%


Proactive Consumers Prepared for the Spread of the Virus in

February, While Reactives Initially Changed Little in Buying Habits

Source: IRI Study “Harnessing the Power of Self Care to Drive Sustainable Growth 4 Weeks Ending February 23, 2020

PROACTIVE

Self Care Consumers

Younger consumers, who are all about

prevention and taking their health and

wellness into their own hands, will turn

to OTC as a first line of defense.

Preventative Products

• Hand Sanitizer

• Spray and Bottled Disinfectants

• Disposable Gloves

• Cleaning Wipes / Clothes

• Moist Towelettes

• Immunity-Related Vitamins / Minerals

• Bottled Water

• Juice and Energy Drinks

REACTIVE

Self Care Consumers

Older consumers with health

conditions and are taking Rx

regularly, struggle to cope with

their current medical status and

seek guidance and reassurance

from medical professionals. They

defer to doctors and consult

with a pharmacist.

Preventative Products

• Canned Fruit Juice

• Bottled Vegetable Juice

• 1 and 2 Letter Vitamins

Treatment Products

• Sleep Aid Tablets

Treatment Products

• Pediatric Internal Analgesics

• Sleep Aid Tablets

• Antacid Liquids / Powders

• Personal Thermometers

• Sore Throat Liquids


Self Care Behavior is Even More

Mainstream During the COVID-19 Pandemic

• Health and Home continue to benefit significantly across the store, as consumers take “self care” to new levels to protect themselves and their family.

• Preventive healthcare products, like Immunity, are trending higher than symptomatic products, as consumers look first to prevent Illness. Cleaning Products and Hand Sanitizers / Soap also important to consumer self care practices.

• Given the global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a blurring of lines between Self Care segments. This virus can affect anyone, and all consumers are reacting accordingly to protect their family.

• Proactive Self Care Consumers began quickly reacting to “stock-up” early when news reached the public in February. While Reactive Self Care Consumers, had no early shifts in buying behavior, waiting until the situation became a pandemic and are now treating more symptomatically.

• For the most part, an influx of “new” buyers is driving growth across Self Care. This is an opportunity for manufacturers to win consumers long-term.


Even Prior to COVID-19…Consumers Report Taking Greater Control of Their Health by Practicing Good Hygiene, Regularly Disinfecting their Homes

72% 71%66%

60%57% 56% 54%

50% 49%46%

Stay hydrated Practice goodpersonalhygiene

Practice goodoral hygiene

Get at least 7-8hours of sleep

each night

Take vitamins Regularlyclean/disinfect

your home

Eat healthyfoods

Take Rxdirected by

doctor

Wash/changeyour bed linensat least once a

week

Use OTCmedications

Q2. Which of the following do you, personally, consider ways to practice self care?

We want to know what you believe is self care, not what your friends, family or society overall may think is self care.

How do YOU practice Self Care?

Source: IRI 2019 Self Care Study


Buyer Increases Accelerating Purchasing

Across Many Self Care Categories;

Hand Sanitizers Equally Benefiting from

New Buyer and Spend Growth

% Change in Buyers

% Change in Spend

Personal Thermometers 160.5 22.4

Cleaning Cloths / Wipes 136.2 36.9

Immunity Products 124.9 34.2

Disposable Gloves 109.1 42.0

Hand Sanitizers 107.3 103.3

Liquid Hand Soap 97.3 29.3

Bleach 79.7 14.3

Facial Tissue 58.3 26.4

First Aid Antiseptics 52.9 28.4

Household Cleaners 41.3 39.9

Internal Analgesics 40.4 27.7

Paper Towels 39.6 31.3

Toilet Tissue 32.7 45.6

Laundry Detergent 30.4 19.0

Cold / Cough / Allergy 29.3 27.1

Vitamins 27.4 14.9

Sports / Energy Drinks 23.6 10.6

Toothpaste 22.7 8.8

Refrigerated Orange Juice 20.5 8.4

Water 14.0 33.9

Source: IRI National Consumer Network; Total All Outlets * % Change in Buying Rate


Cleaning Products and Household

Essentials Are Being Stockpiled…

Dollar Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Week Ending March 22, 2020

48%

129%

98%92%

134%

224%

87%

115%121%

198%

Source: IRI Total U.S. - Multi Outlet + Convenience

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…While Consumers Fill Their Medicine Cabinets to Prepare for the Virus

Dollar Sales % Change vs. Year Ago | Week Ending March 22, 2020

48%

297%

184%

87%

199%

128%

77%55%

30%

Total Store PersonalThermometers

HandSanitizers

First AidAntiseptics

ImmunityProducts*

InternalAnalgesics

Vitamins Toothpaste GastrointestinalProducts

Source: IRI Total U.S. - Multi Outlet + Convenience * Immunity Products IRI Total U.S. – MULO Only


Conversations Have Been Positive, With People Discussing

Ways to Keep Up Self Care During Social Distancing

Top Topics Week Ending March 23, 2020

Source: IRI Social Pulse powered by Infegy



Down-trodden

9%

Cautious & Worried

32%

Start-Ups12%

Optimistics21%

Carefree18%

SavvyShoppers

8%

DOWNTRODDENTheir financial situations are markedly worse vs. YAG, and their go-to response is depravation; they try to cut back on everything. Purchases highly influenced by price, brand, and/or prior experience/trust.

SKEWS: Older Millennials/Younger Boomers | Blue Collar | Hispanic | Lower Income

CAUTIOUS & WORRIEDTheir financial situations are markedly worse vs. YAG, and they do not hold out a lot of hope for things to get better.

SKEWS:Baby Boomers | Live Alone

START-UPSTheir financial situations are largely the same as YAG, but they’re still struggling. They, too, are focused on cutting back, but with positive expectations for future improvement in their financial situations.

SKEWS: Gen Z/Millennials | African American, Asian | Blue Collar | Lower Income

CAREFREETheir financial situations are in a stable place; no real financial concerns. They’re willing to splurge on premium products, and brand preference is a greater driver than price for their buying decisions.

SKEWS: Older Boomers & Retirees | Male | Live Alone | Upper Income

OPTIMISTICSTheir financial situations are better vs. YAG, and they are optimistic about their financial future. Price is on their radar, but so are product experiences and brand trust.

SKEWS: Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X | 4+ Member HHs | African American | Mean HHI $72,000

SAVVY SHOPPERSTheir financial situations are improving vs. YAG, but they still look for value – although that doesn’t always mean the lowest price. They love to find coupons and good deals on groceries.

SKEWS: Younger Baby Boomers, Retirees | Mean HHI $75,600

EconoLink Provides View of Americans’ Response to COVID-19 Through a

Human Economic Lens That Goes Beyond Income; Not All Respond Alike

IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among National Consumer IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers


15% 18%

30% 21%

13%

8%

10%

12%

23%32%

9% 9%

2019 2020

Downtrodden

Cautious & Worried

Start-Ups

Savvy Shoppers

Optimistics

Carefree

More Than Four in 10 Americans Are Cautious & Worried or

Downtrodden, a Signal that Economic Downturn is Taking its Toll


More Than Half of Americans Are Extremely Concerned About COVID-19,

Including the Vast Majority of Downtrodden and Start-Ups Segments

Nearly Three-Quarters of People in These Segments Are More

Concerned About COVID-19 Than They Were a Week Ago

% EXTREMELY CONCERNED

58%

47% 48% 49%

63%67%

81%

37%

28% 29% 30%

44%41%

51%

Wave 2 TotalRespondents

Carefree Optimistics Savvy Shoppers Cautious andWorried

Start Ups Downtrodden

COVID-19 Economy

Segment as % of respondents

35% 22% 48% 28% 28% 45% 43%

% WITH CHILDREN LIVING AT HOME

IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers


45%

56%

80%


Start-Ups Downtrodden

My Household's Income is at Risk

Because of Restrictions Created

to Curb the Coronavirus

21%28%

35%



I’m Working Fewer Hours

Because of the

Coronavirus

37%

47%52%



My Household Includes

People Who Might Be Especially

Susceptible to the Coronavirus

The Growing Concern About COVID-19 Among Start-Ups and Downtrodden is

Well-Founded and Rooted in Harsh Economic and Health-Related Realities



28%

11%

16%

22%

31%

36%

68%


Carefree SavvyShoppers

Optimistics Cautious andWorried

Start Ups Downtrodden

Start-Ups and Downtrodden are Notably More Likely to be

Facing the Very Real Fear of Not Being Able to Afford Groceries

% Agreeing That My Household is Having

Difficulty Affording Needed Groceries



63%

26%

19%

15%

15%

13%

67%

42%

31%

28%

18%

23%

77%

43%

30%

19%

25%

23%

More stock-up trips

Buying more sanitizing products

Stocked up on OTC medications

Buying immune boosting products

Buying more fresh foods

Ordering online more

Wave 2 Total Respondents Start-Ups Downtrodden

Preparedness is a Priority for Start-Ups and Downtrodden;

Both Use Stocking Up to Achieve Maximum Readiness

Recent Changes in Shopping Choices Due to Coronavirus



% Expecting Health Crisis to Last 4+ Months Before Health Concerns Return to Normal

% Expecting Economic Impact to Last More Than 12 Months Before the Economy Recovers

Expectations for Both Length of the COVID-19 Crisis, as Well as the Time Frame

Needed for Economic Recovery, Are Longest for Cautious & Worried, Downtrodden

Start-Ups Are Notably More Optimistic


32% 29%38%

48%

Wave 2 Total Respondents Start-Ups Cautious & Worried Downtrodden

37%29%

52% 56%

Wave 2 Total Respondents Start-Ups Cautious & Worried Downtrodden


What to Expect

Likely Shifts Over the Next Three to Four Weeks

• F&B growth will begin to temper as shoppers move from stock-up to everyday meal preparation, with purchase behavior varying across consumer segments.

More than three-quarters of consumers already have two weeks of groceries or more on hand.*

Lower income and “downtrodden” households will pull back on spending, looking for value brands and deals and restricting non-essentials, at least until stimulus payments are received in roughly three weeks.

Middle and upper income consumers will begin looking for prepared foods and shortcuts that were not a focus during the pantry stocking phase, but may re-emerge as a priority, as the strain of “from scratch” meal preparation kicks in.

• Nonedible growth rates, including home, health and beauty, will continue to gradually decelerate as most consumers are now well-stocked, although hard to find items, such as toilet paper and hand sanitizer, will see a resurgence once back in stock.

*Source: IRI Survey fielded 3/13-3/15 and 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers; Base W-2: 1292, Base W-1: 963

• MULO channel demand growth for beverage alcohol and tobacco has likely not yet peaked, and will continue to see an acceleration for at least the next few weeks.

• Comfort categories, such as salty snacks, ice cream, carbonated beverages and cookies, generally see an uptick during recessionary periods, and are likely to see sustained growth, even after pantry stocking eases.

• Particularly in self care categories, there is an opportunity for manufacturers to win consumers over new category buyers for the long-term.

• As out of stocks take shape across many retailers on essential categories, and consumers experience more shelter-in-place directives, we’ll see continuing shifts to online purchases. This behavior is likely to extend beyond the COVID-19 episode.

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI).

Confidential and Proprietary. 40

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TRACKING THE DRAMATIC PIVOT OF U.S. CONSUMER AND … · 4/3/2020 · • Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™Panel • IRI Surveys Analyzed by: IRI Proprietary Self