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Making Leaders Successful Every Day October 14, 2010 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 by Gene Leganza for Enterprise Architecture Professionals

Top 15 Technology Trends Ea Should Watch

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Making Leaders Successful Every Day

October 14, 2010

The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013by Gene Leganzafor Enterprise Architecture Professionals

Page 2: Top 15 Technology Trends Ea Should Watch

© 2010, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please email [email protected]. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com.

For Enterprise Architecture Professionals

ExEcuTivE SummAryForrester began summarizing technology trends last year to help enterprise architects create their organizations’ technology watch lists. For this year’s list of top trends, we’ve used the same criteria — impact, newness, and complexity — but we’ve modified the categories, merged related topics, added five new trends, and updated all the entries with this year’s perspective. This year’s categories? “Empowered” technologies, process-centric data and intelligence, agile and fit-to-purpose applications, and smart technology management. Also new this year are the results from a survey we ran as input to this report that asked respondents to rate more than 40 technologies for impact to their organization in the next three years.

TAbLE OF cOnTEnTSTechnology Evolves Quickly; EAs Should Be On Their Toes

Formalize your Technology Watch List To Stay On Top Of High-impact Trends

Where Our Survey respondents Are Placing Their bets

Forrester’s Top 15 Technology Trends For Enterprise Architects To Watch

Theme no. 1: “Empowered” Technologies

Theme no. 2: Process-centric Data And intelligence

Theme no. 3: Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications

Theme no. 4: Smart Technology management

rEcOmmEnDATiOnS

Empowered Organizations Are More Than The Sum Of Their Empowered Parts

Supplemental Material

nOTES & rESOurcESForrester analysts from across teams collaborated to identify and rank technologies that are new or changing, have the potential for significant impact, and require an iT-led strategy to exploit.

Related Research Documents“Smart computing Drives The new Era Of iT Growth”December 4, 2009

“The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch”October 6, 2009

October 14, 2010

The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013An Empowered report: High-impact Technologies That you Should Trackby Gene Leganzawith Alex cullen and mimi An

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TEchnOLOGy EvOLvES QuickLy; EAS ShOuLD BE On ThEiR TOES

In the year that has passed since Forrester published its last “top trends” research report, the technology landscape has continued to change.1 Forrester has seen IT strategy documents with formal plans for diverse areas ranging from cloud-based deployments, which didn’t exist as an option five years ago, to strategies for tablet PCs — which didn’t exist as an option before Apple’s iPad launch in the spring of this year! Those who doubt that the changing technology landscape can have dramatic business impact need only to check out the real-world examples in Forrester’s book Empowered; the authors contrast the positive impact of innovative use of social media along with mobile and cloud technologies against the sometimes dire results of ignoring these same technologies.2 As for what continues to emerge, public Webinars from vendors this year covered big data, NoSQL, social media analytics, green IT, security in the cloud — the list goes on and on.

Formalize your Technology Watch List To Stay On Top Of high-impact Trends

In last year’s document, Forrester recommended that architects gain control of this runaway train by keeping track of the trends in a formal watch list that highlights their potential value to IT or the business. We’ve seen some examples of these watch lists in use, and the most effective approach shows the value to the enterprise, the potential deployment risk, and the time frame in an easy-to-grasp graphic (see Figure 1). While architects typically use these new technology road maps as planning documents, they can also be ideal tools for socializing technology plans and generating dialogue with business stakeholders — but only if you can connect the technologies to specific business needs and desired business capabilities. Defining your own custom criteria and filtering Forrester’s list of technologies can help you focus on the trends that are likely to have high impact in your organization.

Where Our Survey Respondents Are Placing Their Bets

We received 65 responses to the online survey we posted. This survey listed 46 technologies or technology areas and asked people to rate what they thought would have impact in their organizations over the next three years. The results? Forty-five of the items on the list got at least one vote of confidence, but the technologies that respondents expected to have the most impact on their organizations were mobile technologies, collaboration and social media, business intelligence, and infrastructure virtualization (see Figure 2).

We found some interesting differences in the technologies of interest for organizations with fewer than 5,000 employees versus those for organizations with more than 5,000 employees. Technologies that made the top 10 for expected impact in larger organizations that did not appear on the smaller organizations’ shortlist were master data management, portfolio management tools, telepresence, business rules processing, and human-centric business process management (BPM). Technologies included in the smaller organizations’ top 10 that were not on the larger organizations’ shortlist were security for wireless and mobile devices, social network and social media analysis, security technology in general, and customer community platforms.

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Figure 1 Tailor your Organization’s new Tech road map

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

2013

2012

2011

Event-drivenpatterns

Mobile apps

MDM

Collaborationplatform

Real-time BI

APM

BPM

Social networkanalysis

IaaS

Businessrules

Clientvirtualization

System managementautomation

Low risk

Medium risk

High risk

Low

val

ueM

ediu

m v

alue

Hig

h va

lue

Very

hig

h va

lue

Dep

loym

ent r

isk

Enterprisevalue

“Em

powered” t

echnologies

Agile and fit-t

o-purp

ose

applicatio

ns

Process-centric data

and intelligence

Smart technology

managem

ent

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Figure 2 Our Survey respondents Place Their bets On mobility, collaboration, bi, And virtualization

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

“How much impact will the follow technology areas have in the next two years?”

Portal software

Metadata management/business metadata

Client virtualization

Information-as-a-service

Network intrusion prevention

Telepresence or enhanced use of videocommunication in general

Customer community platforms

Systems management and automation

Business rules processing

Data- and content-based security

Platform-as-a-service

Content management

Social network analysis and socialmedia analytics

Real-time business intelligence

Master data management

Application portfolio managementand project portfolio management tools

Security technology in general

Data integration

Data quality services

Software-as-a-service

Security related to wirelessand mobile devices

Virtualized servers, storage,and/or networks

Business intelligence

Collaboration/Web 2.0/social media

Mobile devices and/or apps

Technology or technology area

Don’t know Little or no impact Some impact Strong impact

Source: August 2010 Global Technology Trends Online Survey

Base: 65 IT professionals(percentages may not total 100 because of rounding)

5%19% 72%

11% 22% 63%

6% 12% 20% 62%

8% 9% 23% 60%

8% 12% 26% 54%

6% 9% 32% 52%

6% 22% 22% 51%

8% 15% 26% 51%

8% 37% 51%

11% 17% 22% 51%

12% 17% 22% 49%

20% 28% 48%

8% 26% 19% 48%

15% 11% 28% 46%

9% 23% 23% 45%

9% 19% 28% 45%

12% 14% 31% 43%

14% 17% 26% 43%

11% 25% 23% 42%

8% 22% 29% 42%

11% 17% 31% 42%

11% 20% 31% 39%

12% 23% 26% 39%

12% 26% 23% 38%

8% 20% 34% 38%

5%

5%

5%

5%

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The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals

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FORRESTER’S TOP 15 TEchnOLOGy TREnDS FOR EnTERPRiSE ARchiTEcTS TO WATch

While none of the trends we listed last year have faded into obscurity or become so absorbed into the mainstream that they have lost their “new” feel, this year’s list is fresh because we:

· Revamped the categories. We merged the categories for social, mobile, and cloud technologies into a single “‘empowered’ technologies” category to align with the use cases in our latest book. We added a category for “smart technology management” to showcase the trends that can help IT create order from the technology complexity that continues to unfold. We carried over our two categories for “process-centric data and intelligence” and “agile and fit-to-purpose applications” from last year’s list.

· Merged related smaller trends into broader trends reflecting business use cases. We noted four instances where we could express individual trends as part of a broader trend: Real-time data quality services is an inextricable part of real-time BI; cloud-based platforms and software-as-a-service are part of the broad and evolving trend of cloud deployments in general; mobile devices, networks, and applications are all part of business processes going mobile; and business rules and policy-based SOA are both part of the trend to externalize rules to make applications — and enterprises — more flexible and agile.

· Dropped lower-impact trends . . . Following the process we defined last year, we compiled the list of competing technology trends and scored them according to our criteria (see Figure 3). To keep the list a manageable size, we sorted them by impact and took only the top 15.

· . . . to make room for new high-impact entries. Five new high-impact trends hit our radar screen for enterprise impact in the next three years: 1) event-driven patterns demand attention; 2) information-as-a-service (IaaS) finds a broader audience; 3) analytics target text and social networks; 4) system management enables continued virtualization; and 5) IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future (see Figure 4).

Figure 3 criteria used To Select Technologies

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

DefinitionCriteria

Business Capabilities that will have an impact on operating model and externalrelationships compared with what the business is likely to have today

IT Positive or negative impact on major cost areas, or responsiveness ordelivery quality for a major IT function, or IT external relationships

Technology area where firms are likely to have little or no knowledgeor experience

Complexity in terms of areas affected or uncertain strategy

Business/IT impact

“Newness”

Complexity

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Figure 4 The Top 15 Technology Trends Scored by criteria

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Technology trend Impact “Newness” Complexity

Next-gen BI takes shape, combining real-time access withpervasiveness, agility, and self-service. Very high High High

Business rules processing and policy-based SOA move to themainstream. Very high High High

SaaS and cloud-based platforms become standard. Very high High Very high

System management enables continued virtualization. Very high Moderate Low

Collaboration platforms become people-centric. Very high Moderate High

Event-driven patterns demand attention. High Very high High

Customer community platforms integrate with business apps. High Very high High

Apps and business processes go mobile on powerful devices andfaster networks. High Very high High

Analytics target text and social networks. High Very high High

IaaS finds a broader audience. High Very high Low to high

IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future. High Moderate Moderate

BPM will be Web-2.0-enabled. High Moderate Moderate

Client virtualization is ubiquitous. High Moderate Moderate

Master data management matures. High Moderate Very high

Telepresence gains widespread use. Moderate High Low

New for 2011 to 2013

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Theme no. 1: “Empowered” Technologies

Forrester’s book Empowered shows the dramatic impact possible from combining Social Computing, mobile technologies, collaboration platforms, and cloud-based capabilities for rapid deployment of innovative new ideas. And anyone who thinks that the big impact is limited to social-network-based consumer marketing is missing the major benefits coming from enabling innovation by an increasingly tech-savvy workforce. Think outside the box — and enable the individuals in your enterprise to do so — by evaluating the key technology trends driving empowered technologies (see Figure 5).

Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s October 2, 2009, ”TechRadar™ For Infrastructure & Operations Professionals: Cloud Computing,Q3 2009” report by James Staten, and Forrester’s February 22, 2010, ”SaaS Valuation Criteria” report by LizHerbert

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Very high business impact: SaaS-based applications willenable business execs to address application functionality,scalability, and deployment needs more rapidly. Even if ITmostly uses IaaS and PaaS options, the business willbenefit from rapid deployment.

Very high IT impact: IT execs must triage where theyinvest their resources as well adopt new applicationsupport practices for SaaS, while completely re-evaluatingcapacity issues as well as architecture standards forapplications developed or hosted in the cloud.

High: SaaS options expand as new IaaS and PaaS optionscontinue to evolve.

Very high: IT-business relationships will change withrespect to SaaS, and IaaS and PaaS options require a re-examination of financial models, risk, and operationsprocesses.

If you still think the best answer whendeploying any new application is to buy aserver and rack it in your data center, you arewoefully behind the times and may just bemaking the most expensive and slowestdecision possible. Cloud computing is here tostay, with SaaS-based applications continuingas its most prevalent form as concerns such assecurity and availability recede. As SaaS’smomentum continues, organizations will needto expand the range of requirements for whicha SaaS-based solution is appropriate and definenew roles for business-side application andvendor management. Virtualized data centerservices — both raw computing infrastructureand platforms for application development —are viable alternatives for some customapplication needs. Initially, organizations willuse cloud platforms for new applicationworkloads where rapid deployment andscalability are required, but savvy IT shops willlook to cloud options for IT deployment costoptimization and strategic rightsourcing.

SaaS and cloud-based platforms become standard5-1

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Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s April 22, 2010, “Enterprise Social Networking 2010 Market Overview” report by Rob Koplowitz,and Forrester’s April 30, 2008, “Social Computing Changes The Enterprise Collaboration Landscape”report by Rob Koplowitz

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Very high business impact: Communication andcollaboration technologies converge, leading to greaterorganizational responsiveness to business changes.

Moderate IT impact: These technologies are integratedinto the vendor products IT uses now.

Medium: Although a minority of firms are exploring thesetechnologies today, Forrester is seeing a substantial rampin interest, including from “mainstream” industries such asgovernment and financial services.

High: The technologies are somewhat straightforward, butthe organizational change to gain benefits whilemaintaining controls is substantial.

Collaboration platforms will shift fromdocument-centric to people-centric. People-centric collaboration platforms will takeadvantage of Web 2.0 capabilities such asprofiling, tagging, and communities and willshift the emphasis from documentcollaboration to facilitating the interactions ofpeople in the organization. These collaborationplatforms will surface expertise and interest aswell as availability, fostering the creation ofnetworks that help people be more effectivewith their jobs and challenges. One-to-onecommunications such as email will take asmaller share of individuals’ time as the centerof collaboration moves to these new platforms.Meanwhile, social networking in the enterprisewill accelerate collaboration in general asorganizations rush to establish their strategiesand vendors move aggressively to claim somedifferentiated space in the Web 2.0 market.Enterprises will look to attain critical massusing tools with broad appeal, and architectsmust move quickly to define requirements andestablish standards before multipledisconnected solutions take root.

Collaboration platforms become people-centric5-2

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Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s January 5, 2010, “Topic Overview: Social CRM Goes Mainstream” report by William Band andNatalie L. Petouhoff, Ph.D., and Forrester’s upcoming “Zero In On Customer RelationshipManagement HEROes — The Role Of Advanced Analytics” report by James Kobielus

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: Some firms and functions withinthe firms will take advantage of this and learn how to usethe insights from customer communities to produce betterproducts and services, heighten market visibility, andlower costs.

Low IT impact: These platforms will be acquired asstandalone products or cloud-based services; informationintegration will be their primary impact.

Very high: While many firms are pursuing customercommunities, only the most leading-edge firms havethought about how to combine them with theirinternal systems.

High: The challenge will be to build business consensuson a strategy and what this integration means for platforms.

Businesses will integrate external customercommunities with their internal business apps.Businesses are building or connecting withcustomer communities to gain better insightsinto customer behaviors and to monitorreactions to business actions. Organizationscan use customer communities to supportmarket research and product development,accelerate distribution of marketing messages,provide deeper insights about individuals andaccounts for sales, and promote customerself-service to drive down support costs. Thesecustomer communities are quite separate fromthe internal systems businesses use to run theiroperations. Over the next three years, Forresterexpects a shift from standalone communitiesto communities integrated with internalsystems such as customer relationshipmanagement systems.

Customer community platforms integrate with business apps5-3

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Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s August 24, 2010, ”Define Your Mobile Development Strategy” report by Jeffrey S. Hammondand Forrester’s July 14, 2009, “Netbooks Remain Adjunct PCs . . . For Now” report by Paul Jackson

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: Business processes will beextended to the mobile workforce, bringing greaterefficiency and compliance.

High IT impact: IT must add mobile support toapplications and will be challenged to manage and securemobile devices and networks.

Very high: Mobile-aware business processes are very new,with few vendors directly addressing them. Managementof mobile infrastructure and devices is not new, but willcontinue to face new challenges.

High: IT and business managers must decide on whichapplications to mobile-enable while telecom sourcing willneed to be revisited and device standards, provisioning,and management will need to mature.

As users become more mobile, the applicationsthey use will become mobile-enabled. Somepackaged apps vendors are providing mobileinterfaces that allow people to see pendingwork and complete tasks on their mobilephone. As for custom development, Moore’slaw, fixed-rate data plans, and dramaticallyimproved browsers have made developingmobile applications an approachable activityfor mainstream development shops. Andmainstream enterprise IT is interested: Drivenby visions of fully mobile, always reachable,more productive employees, firms aregrappling with the best way to turn mobiledevelopment into a core extension of existingcustom development processes. Meanwhile,Wi-Fi and cellular networks will becomeincreasingly capable of serving as the user’sprimary network. Mobile devices —smartphones, tablets, and netbooks — areconverging around OS-based camps. Firms willstandardize devices less and focus devicemanagement and security with a multiplatformstrategy. Netbooks and tablets will be moreattractive to support employees who areprimarily mobile.

Apps and business processes go mobile on powerful devices and faster networks5-4

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Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont.)

Theme no. 2: Process-centric Data And intelligence

Use of your business’ information assets is hampered by quality and trust issues, and this use is largely offline, where analytics are used in batch mode to generate reports that will later guide management decisions. During the next three years, real-time information on customer behaviors and market conditions will become more prevalent, allowing frontline operational staff and applications to detect and respond to opportunities — such as adjusting pricing and product offers as demand changes — thereby squeezing more pennies of profit out of each customer touchpoint. Increasingly, understanding unstructured data plays a critical part in daily operations. Today’s unmanaged information environments and batch-oriented technologies won’t suffice. Key technologies that you should evaluate in this category range from real-time business analytics and real-time data quality services to text analytics and social network analysis (see Figure 6).

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s April 1, 2010, “How Tech Strategists Can Ride The Coming Tidal Wave Of Business Video” reportby Henry Dewing, and Forrester’s February 25, 2009, “The ROI Of Telepresence” report, by Claire Schooley

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Medium business impact: Businesses will add “virtualmeetings” to their current mix of travel and telephoneconference calls and even to client networking events.

Very low IT impact: Organizations will for the most partoutsource this capability to telepresence room operators.HD videoconferencing, as it becomes more widespread,will require network infrastructure adjustments.

High: Although there has been recent buzz abouttelepresence, few business leaders are familiar with it.

Low: Because telepresence will be implemented as aservice, there will be little need for investment, and costswill track business adoption.

Telepresence will make videoconferencingmuch more accepted in business by providinghigh-definition, life-size images and realisticlighting and sound. Telepresence bringstogether globally distributed people insituations where travel never could have beenjustified. Telcos including AT&T, BT, Orange, andTata have entered the fray and have been joinedby systems integrators including IBM and new-generation managed service providers such asGlowpoint to provide end-to-end solutionsthat range from build-only to hands-free white-glove service. And the improved experience issteadily moving from the fit-for-purposeconference room all the way down to thedesktop. Cisco’s acquisition of Tandberg hastriggered a scramble to provide solutions forthe board room, team room, video unit onwheels, desktop, and even smartphone. Butvideo conferencing won’t really explode untilwe have true standards and interoperability.The path is surveyed with suppliers like TataCommunications and AT&T providing bridgingservices between firms and video conferencingvendors providing gateways, but the path won’tbe paved until emerging standards efforts gaincritical mass.

Telepresence gains widespread use5-5

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Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s April 22, 2010, “Agile BI Out Of The Box ” report by Boris Evelson, and Forrester’s October 23,2009, “Trends In Data Quality” report by Rob Karel

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Very high business impact: Firms will increase their useof analytics to improve their speed of response tochanging market conditions.

High IT impact: IT needs to enable successful end user BIself-service to keep runaway BI costs in check.

High: Although traditional BI has been around for manyyears, operational BI, end user self-service, and free-formexploration are still leading-edge technologies.

High: The complexity challenge will not be around thetechnologies per se but rather in the continued effort ofgaining business consensus on data governance so thatbad data is not driving strategic and operationaldecisions.

The information economy is here, and BI ishotter than ever. Firms compete based oninsights from analytics, and next-gen BI willpave the way for a significant increase in BI’simpact on the enterprise. The shift fromhistorical to real-time analytics will require thatrelated processes such as data quality servicesalso move to real time. Additionally, six keytrends will characterize next-gen BI: 1)automation to keep the many independentcomponents, including automated discovery,in sync; 2) pervasiveness, integrating BI withprocesses, apps, and the InformationWorkplace; 3) unification — of batch andreal-time, historical and predictive, disk andin-memory, data and content; 4) “no borders,”providing model-less exploration and analysisand on-demand “post-discovery” analysis; 5)agility, moving BI architecture towardintegrated metadata and alternatives for theDW/DBMS and exploration technologies; and 6)self-service for both casual and power users,which will in turn drive both pervasiveness andagility.

Next-gen BI takes shape combining real-time access with pervasiveness, agility, and self-service6-1

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Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s October 22, 2009, “Text Analytics Takes Business Insight To New Depths” report by LeslieOwens, and Forrester’s upcoming “Zero In On CRM HEROes By Using Social Network Analysis ToMine Influence” report by James Kobielus

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: These new technologies bringpowerful analytics to bear on rich areas as yet untappedfor intelligence about customers and products.

Medium IT impact: They will provide a challenge forinformation architects and tax the semantic capabilities ofexisting investments.

Very high: Until recently, text analytics software wasobscure and academic, used primarily by early adopters inthe life sciences field. Social network analysis is alsojust emerging.

High: Exploiting these technologies will require the kindof IT-business collaboration needed for areas like BI andMDM.

Enterprises have lots of unstructured content ininternal apps such as email and call centernotes, and there is a rapidly growing amount oftext that enterprises care about in social mediasuch as Twitter and other social forums. To makesense of this cacophony, business leaders arepioneering text analytics tools. This technologyhas a compelling value proposition: extractingmeaning out of large quantities of text bymining, interpreting, and structuringinformation to reveal hidden patterns andrelationships. When text analytics tools areincorporated with other systems such asenterprise content management (ECM) orbusiness intelligence (BI), they are especiallypowerful, because instead of just reporting orvisualizing these patterns or trends, theintegrated systems can act on the information.Enterprises are also turning to analytics for socialnetworks to mine for expertise and influenceamong customers, employees, and other keystakeholders. Social network analysis involvesdiscovering, mapping, and visualizingrelationships among people, groups,companies, and the entities with which theyinteract. This will be a key technology as socialmedia continues to grow in influence.

Analytics target text and social networks6-2

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Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s February 10, 2010, “The Forrester Wave™: Information-As-A-Service, Q1 2010” report by NoelYuhanna and Mike Gilpin

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: IaaS provides agility and flexibilityfor enabling high-impact areas such as MDM and BI.

High IT impact: IaaS can significantly alter IT’s approachto its data management strategy.

Very high: IaaS presents an approach to data integrationthat is significantly different from the traditional EII, ETL,and replication approaches.

Low to high: The complexity depends on the scope of thedeployment. Small projects focusing on two to three datasources can leverage IaaS with minimal effort, but larger,more-complex, enterprisewide data integration projectsintegrating hundreds of sources or requiring additionaldata quality and data governance initiatives will add tothe complexity.

Organizations continue to show strong interestin IaaS to help them with the increasing dataintegration challenges they face. IaaS offers avirtualized data services layer that integratesheterogeneous mashups of data and contentto service any application in real time or batch.IaaS provides a flexible data integrationplatform based on a newer generation ofservice-oriented standards that enablesubiquitous access to any type of data, on anyplatform, using a wide range of interface anddata access standards. In addition, IaaS goesbeyond data integration: It can supportmultiple requirements, including “singleversion of the truth,” real-time businessintelligence (BI), enterprisewide search, high-performance transactional applications,federated views across multiple lines ofbusiness (LOBs), and improved security foraccess to sensitive data. Originally used inlimited scenarios focusing on real-time dataaccess, IaaS is finding new audiences byfocusing beyond read-only use cases, satisfyingan increasing need for agility and automationwith quicker ROI for data-driven initiatives, andleveraging existing technology to the extentpossible. Forrester is also seeing increasedinterest in integrating semistructured andunstructured data with IaaS.

IaaS finds a broader audience6-3

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Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence (cont.)

Theme no. 3: Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications

Along with IT’s service infrastructure, the structure of business applications is a major impediment to IT responsiveness. There are a number of technologies that will improve application flexibility, and while some are not new, what is new is how they are evolving to become easier to leverage and use. The three technologies described in Figure 7 will have the largest impact on applications’ ability to change (see Figure 7). Make sure your application strategies are lined up to take advantage of them.

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s October 23, 2009, “Trends 2009: Master Data Management” report by Rob Karel, andForrester’s February 4, 2010 “Forrester TechRadar™: Enterprise Data Integration, Q1 2010” report by NoelYuhanna and Rob Karel

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: MDM will enable operationalimprovements as well as improved business intelligenceand compliance.

High IT impact: MDM’s IT impact will be high due to thecomplexity of MDM tools as well as MDM’s span ofintegration, need for an information architecture, andradically improved data governance.

Medium: Technologies are becoming embedded in majorvendor offerings, but IT must still ramp up on effectiveapplication.

Very high: This technology requires an informationarchitecture synchronized with data governance andquality.

Master data management (MDM) will continueto become more mature and effective. MDM isa business capability leveraging multipleenabling technologies. The key business issueis having a standardized, trusted source of dataacross function and application silos. Today,MDM is immature even with significantspending in this area, mostly due to a lack ofbusiness involvement that leads to businessstakeholders not embracing IT-drivenrequirements. Key issues in this space include:how to move from managing multiple siloedmaster domains such as customer or product tosupporting a data model, MDM solution, andarchitecture that can actively support therelationships between these domains; how toselect the optimal MDM architecture (e.g., hub,federated, SOA/IaaS, analytical, registry,index — or, more realistically, a hybridapproach); and how to support businesspartners in driving and enabling the necessarydata governance infrastructure, includingsetting up the necessary organizational roles,responsibilities, and accountabilities as well asthe policies and processes that will benecessary to ensure that the MDM strategycan succeed.

Master data management matures6-4

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Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s October 3, 2008, “Best Practices In Implementing Business Rules” report by Mike Gualtieri andJohn R. Rymer, and Forrester’s August 26, 2008, “How To Get Started On SOA Policy Management” reportby Randy Heffner

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Very high business impact: Business rules processingautomates highly conditional transactions that staffmembers perform manually.

Very high IT impact: Both business rules and policy-based SOA will be important for applications that are“built for change.”

High: Rules processing technology will affect app designpractices and the division of responsibility for applicationchange between business and IT. Policy-based SOAarchitecture will be very new to most environments.

High: Business and IT will need to redesign theresponsibilities for application functionality design andsupport.

A key trend in application architectures is theexternalization of the policies and rules thatdrive key decision points in application logic.Externalization exposes rules to policysubject-matter experts for explicitdevelopment and maintenance. Business rulesprocessing enables rule management bybusiness-side experts, while policy-based SOAenables application developers to bettermanage SOA services to conform to policy andrules. Applications based on business rulesprocessing are moving from niche intomainstream as rules enable the creation ofmore-responsive, more-personalizedexperiences based on more-complexconditions. Rules engines with the appropriate.configuration management infrastructureenable business managers to maintain rulesand more quickly explore ways of optimizingbusiness processes. Policy-based SOAexternalizes decisions about the business,operational, and design characteristics of anSOA service to reduce the cost of developmentand maintenance and achieve better visibilityinto policies. Forrester expects a long digestionperiod for policy-based SOA.

Business rules processing and policy-based SOA move to the mainstream7-1

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Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s August 24, 2010, “The Forrester Wave™: Business Process Management Suites, Q3 2010” reportby Clay Richardson, and Forrester’s December 28, 2009, “Dynamic Case Management — An Old IdeaCatches New Fire” report by Connie Moore and Craig Le Clair

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: Process mashups allow businessleaders to automate processes that previously they couldn’tjustify. Process wikis will have a lower impact butwill bring operational savings through processimprovement.

High IT impact: IT staff members will have to undergotraining to learn model-driven development, andorganizations will have to integrate business staff membersinto system design and configuration. Lower barriers tobusiness involvement may reduce the need for low-costoffshore resources for application development andsupport.

Medium: BPM technologies are well established. BPMstandards are also established, but few IT shops arefamiliar with them. Web 2.0 extensions are very new.

Medium: Organizations will have to review their policiesand standards.

Business process management (BPM) will gainnew value as it becomes Web-2.0-enabled andcontinues to adapt to trends such as dynamiccase management and event processing. BPMis a hot technology within business due to itsfocus on efficiency. BPM-oriented standardssuch as BPEL, BPMN, and BPEL for People loweradoption barriers because they improvebusiness working with IT implementation. Web2.0 technologies such as wikis for processdocumentation will enable frontline businessmanagers to update knowledge about theprocesses they work with. Web 2.0 “processmashups” will empower savvy users to createquick end user interfaces to extend currentBPM implementations and build “lightweightBPM” for processes that IT isn’t engaged insupporting. While vertical-specific casemanagement tools exist for such areas as socialservices and law enforcement, Forresterexpects BPM tools to be the primarytechnology for generally applicable casemanagement functionality until dynamic casemanagement tools emerge as their ownmarket in the 2013 time frame.

BPM will be Web-2.0-enabled7-2

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Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s August 4, 2009, “The Forrester Wave™: Complex Event Processing (CEP) Platforms, Q3 2009”report by Mike Gualtieri and John R. Rymer, and Forrester’s January 21, 2009, ”Must You Choose BetweenBusiness Rules And Complex Event Processing Platforms?” report by Charles Brett and Mike Gualtieri

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

High business impact: Event processing has the potentialfor significant business impact; complexity and IT’s lack ofexperience in this area will somewhat limit progress.

High IT impact: Architects and developers will need tounderstand when to handle events with custom code,business rules, or CEP platforms and adapt eventprocessing mindsets to their SOA environments.

Very high: While this area has been hovering as an area ofinterest for several years, it is only beginning to affectmainstream organizations.

High: For most organizations, both the business scenariosand the IT solutions will require considerable analysis.

Forrester has been publishing research on theX-Internet — what is currently being referred toas ”the Internet of things” — since 2001: Smartdevices phone home or are polled for dataabout location, status, instrument readings, oranything that can be digitized. The resultingdata deluge has helped drive interest insystems for situational awareness and fortaking actions based on patterns of events.Access to information from smart devices aswell as from traditional sources of data such astransactional financial applications — but inreal time — has triggered a rising tide ofinterest in event processing systems for avariety of uses such as fraud detection,logistics, and law enforcement. Other trendsthat are feeding the real-time frenzy, such associal-media-based customer service (and thetext analytics needed to analyze social mediainformation), contribute to interest in event-processing architectures that take ruleprocessing to new heights. While business rulescan act on a single payload of data, event-based platforms can operate on multiplepayloads from different sources and respondwith low latency, providing unprecedentedcapabilities for responding in real time tocomplex patterns of events. As awareness ofand responding to events in real time becomeincreasingly typical business scenarios that ITmust handle, architects and developers willhave to take a hard look at the impact to theirapplication architecture road maps.

Event-driven patterns demand attention7-3

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Theme no. 4: Smart Technology Management

The time for the cobbler’s children to remain shoeless is over. Virtualized infrastructure resources are now the rule rather than the exception, and facing pressure to deliver cloud-like ease-of-deployment internally, many architects will place system management automation tools high their list of must-have, high-impact technologies. Additionally, now that many EA teams are regularly engaging the business with business architecture efforts, EAs need a repository for planning artifacts to enable the advanced analysis that will help them understand exactly where business impact is going to come from. It’s high time IT tooled up, looking in particular at smart technology management technologies (see Figure 8).

Figure 8 Key Technology Trends Driving Smart Technology management

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s December 9, 2009, “Put DCIM Into Your Automation Plans” report by Galen Schreck, andForrester’s July 22, 2010, “The Future Of Configuration Management” report by Galen Schreck

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Medium business impact: As IT’s managementcapabilities improve, businesses will see the same orimproved service levels.

Very high IT impact: IT must acquire and deploycomprehensive management tools, obtain training, andgain some experience in these tools before cominganywhere near mastery. Utilization of vendors’ serviceofferings will spike.

Medium: System management and automated operationshave been around as long as data centers have, butvirtualization and potentially complex resource schedulingpresent new wrinkles.

Low: While some understanding of business workloadrequirements is necessary, most infrastructure andoperations environments already have a handle on these;this is really a matter of I&O gearing up.

Virtualized infrastructure resources havequickly become the norm as organizationssqueeze waste out of the IT budget. More appssharing fewer servers (as well as otherinfrastructure resources) means bettermanagement is necessary to maintain servicelevels. And as savvy IT shops look to providecloud-like ease of procurement of newresources and pay-as-you-use chargebackscenarios, the bar for system managementautomation is being raised rapidly. Over thenext three years, we will see the averageshop’s management tool set expand andexpertise levels rise to meet thesechallenges.

System management enables continued virtualization8-1

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Figure 8 Key Technology Trends Driving Smart Technology management (cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s January 7, 2009, “The Forrester Wave™: Business Process Analysis, EA Tools, And IT Planning,Q1 2009” report by Henry Peyret, and Forrester’s June 23, 2009, “Anatomy Of A Portfolio ManagementTool” report by Phil Murphy

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Medium business impact: Planning tools will helpconvert input from business architects and analysts intoexecution strategies that will boost the right businesscapabilities at the right times.

High IT impact: With detailed business information nowavailable to finally enable the kind of business-drivenarchitecture planning EA pundits have talked about foryears, analysis and planning tools will be able to laser-focus IT resources where they will matter the most.

Medium: Planning tools are not new, but vendors arelistening to IT customers and have turned from continuallyadding modeling functionality to adding analysisfunctions that directly address planners’ and architects’needs in significantly improved ways, with heat maps andthe promise of road mapping capabilities on the horizon.

Medium: To be effective, the tools require an increase inthe kind of business/IT collaboration that has markedincipient business architecture efforts.

For several years, vendors have offered variousplanning and analysis tools targeting suchareas as application portfolio management(APM), project portfolio management (PPM),and configuration management, whileenterprise architecture tool suite vendors haveadded increasingly comprehensive repositoryand analysis capabilities to their offerings. Still,past surveys examining tool usageconsistently show the most-used tool for manyof these functions to be Microsoft Office. But ITis becoming more process-driven, and IT’sadoption of ITIL, service management, andproject management best practices is drivingadoption of CMDB and PPM tools. EA toolvendors have turned from piling on modelingfunctionality to providing analysis capabilitiesto drive IT planning. Meanwhile, as businessarchitecture programs gain traction, architectsand business staff are using techniques such ascapability mapping to link business goals andactivities to their enabling IT components. Withthis detailed insight into business needs, thepotential for analysis tools to correlate andanalyze such items as IT spend, skilled technicalresources, risk exposures, and businesspriorities will elevate this nice-to-have area oftechnology to a must-have. In a trend Forrestercalls the ”industrialization of IT,” the increasinglyprocess-driven IT organization will employtools to manage portfolios of assets, services,applications, and projects, while using thelatest generation of EA tools to analyze needsand options and plan the road ahead.

IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future8-2

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Figure 8 Key Technology Trends Driving Smart Technology management (cont.)

r E c O m m E n D A T i O n S

EMPOWERED ORGAnizATiOnS ARE MORE ThAn ThE SuM OF ThEiR EMPOWERED PARTS

Forrester’s book Empowered presents the benefits of enabling “HErOes” — that is, individual “highly empowered and resourceful operatives” — but Forrester’s authors don’t present a future characterized by over-the-top Technology Populism accompanied by a complete loss of central coordination and planning.3 On the contrary, they paint a picture that will look quite familiar to savvy enterprise architects. The empowering iT organization enables innovation by maintaining a knowledge base of technologies that can have an impact on the business and by implementing a process for refreshing that knowledge base. it looks for base technologies that can support a broad array of business benefits and executes processes for cross-silo collaboration. These activities will map directly to the EA team in many organizations. What’s missing for some EA teams that are struggling to keep up with developing strategic artifacts while continuing to contribute to tactical projects is the development of regular processes to assess emerging technology and support innovation. Architects can enable a consistent stream of business value by:

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.56871

Further reading:Forrester’s January 25, 2010, “Predictions 2010: Client Virtualization” report by Benjamin Gray

Impact

“Newness”

Complexity

Low business impact: Ubiquitous client virtualization’sprimary impacts are increased security, increasedemployee productivity, and availability of applicationsfrom any and all devices, including those the firm does notown.

High IT impact: This will change desktop supportpractices and workloads.

Medium: Client virtualization technology is availabletoday, with the largest change being how widespread ITdecides to utilize it.

Medium: Client virtualization as a core strategy requiresrethinking everything from end user device support touser segmentation to tiered service levels.

Client virtualization will continue to expand asan architecture for supporting user applicationworkspaces. Enterprises are slowly movingfrom a “two-sizes-fit-all” scenario to a ”many-sizes-fit-one” scenario in which the corporatedesktop is not a specific machine. Typicalimplementation plans target 2012, and driversinclude lowering costs and improvingmanageability and security. Client virtualizationhas the ability to simplify the cost of managingand supporting end user environments while atthe same time offering the ability to support awider variety of end user devices, from user-provisioned laptops to netbooks and high-endsmartphones such as iPhones. Clientvirtualization, encompassing desktop andapplication virtualization technologies, providesa solution for improving desktop and applicationavailability both online and offline. Clientvirtualization can be used to improve applicationand data security by keeping applications anddata within a data center instead of distributingthem to the end user device.

Client virtualization is ubiquitous8-3

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· Engaging the extended virtual architecture team. With the exception of those in organizations that maintain large central EA teams, architects must make use of subject-matter experts (SmEs) wherever they find them. cultivate an extended network of technology-savvy practitioners, and encourage wiki-style contributions to emerging technology knowledge bases. Execute processes for the regular vetting and analysis of this material.

· Establishing forums for collaborative business-iT brainstorming. EA’s recent forays into business architecture have set the stage for more-active collaboration between iT and the business, providing architects with a much better opportunity to understand the business operating model and important business issues. move these exchanges from data collection exercises to dynamic discussions of opportunities for technology-enabled innovation. Establish formal processes for vetting ideas and shepherding new ideas through risk and opportunity assessment analyses and potentially forward to become pilots and implementation projects.4

· understanding the business impact of policies, standards, and guidelines. many architects have already learned the hard way that knee-jerk naysaying limits EA’s influence. While standards are important and can in fact be critical to maintaining an organization’s agility, most organizations don’t need one-size-fits-all standardization but rather a thoughtful understanding of when to restrict behavior and when flexibility can be beneficial. To standardize or not to standardize is a business decision — go beyond the standard advice of simply trying to speak about architecture in business terms: Think business thoughts about opportunity, risk, and risk mitigation.

SuPPLEMEnTAL MATERiAL

Methodology

Forrester fielded its August 2010 Global Technology Trends Online Survey to 65 IT professionals by posting the survey on our site and circulating it via Twitter. Forrester fielded the survey in August 2010 and did not provide incentives to respondents.

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Analysts interviewed For This Document

William Band

Ellen Daley

Henry Dewing

Boris Evelson

Richard Fichera

Benjamin Gray

Mike Gualtieri

Jeffrey S. Hammond

Randy Heffner

Liz Herbert

Andrew Jaquith

Rob Karel

James G. Kobielus

Rob Koplowitz

Craig Le Clair

Diego Lo Giudice

Phil Murphy

Eveline Oehrlich

Leslie Owens

Jonathan Penn

Henry Peyret

Clay Richardson

John R. Rymer

Ted Schadler

Claire Schooley

James Staten

Ken Vollmer

Doug Washburn

Noel Yuhanna

EnDnOTES1 In 2009, Forrester began an annual series to supply input to this process by providing a technology scan of

the most likely technologies to have an impact on business and IT organizations over the next three years. See the October 6, 2009, “The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch” report.

2 Source: Josh Bernoff and Ted Schadler, Empowered: Unleash your Employees, Energize your Customers, Transform your Business, Harvard Business Review Press, 2010 (http://www.forrester.com/empowered).

3 Thanks to an advancing technology-native workforce, ubiquitous broadband, and abundant collaboration and Social Computing tools, information workers can now provision their own software tools, information sources, and social networks via the Web to support their jobs. Individual people, not IT organizations, are fueling the next wave of IT adoption we’re calling Technology Populism. See the February 22, 2008,

“Embrace The Risks And Rewards Of Technology Populism” report.

4 Business leaders expect technology to help drive competitive differentiation, yet only a small number of IT organizations have established a formal approach to innovation with clear roles, responsibilities, and accountabilities. Even fewer are relying on their EA teams to lead innovation efforts, though architects are uniquely qualified for the role. With a small change in focus and a collaborative approach, architects have an opportunity to become their organization’s driving force for IT innovation. See the November 4, 2008,

“Establish Enterprise Architects As IT Innovation Champions” report.

Page 25: Top 15 Technology Trends Ea Should Watch

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