TIME’SPOLLING GUIDE

“What I want to get done is what

the people desire to have done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.” —

Abraham Lincoln π Perhaps it is no surprise that polling developed in a nation where

government derives its power from “the consent of the governed.” From the start, political

leaders in the United States recognized the need for some means to determine what the people

were thinking and saying. So did the many businesses that flourished under the nation’s free-

market system. π From the United States, the practice of polling reached

around the world. However, polling, like public opinion itself, is usually

most powerful in democratic societies that protect freedom of commu-

nication and expression. π Today polls are very much a part of our

everyday life, but quantity does not necessarily mean quality. In a free

market, nearly anybody can sell polling services at a competitive price.

And because of constitutional safeguards of freedom of speech and the

press, there are few restrictions on the wording of questions or the release

of survey data. π As a result, you

need to learn to become an informed

reader, user and participant in polls.

Some polls result in meaningful data;

others mean nothing at all. In this polling guide,

you’ll find the tools to distinguish valid from invalid

survey data and to conduct polls yourself. As you’ll

discover, its use extends far beyond analyzing the

political polls published during elections. Pick up

this guide the next time you click your mouse in an

“instant” Internet poll. π

AN EVERYDAY REFERENCE � � �

Polls: It’s a Matter of Opinion..................2Polling: An Insider’s View..........................6Poll-Driven News......................................7Pollsters.com..........................................8Political Poll Vaulting............................10Measuring Public Opinion......................11

CONTENTS

TIME’S POLLING GUIDE

Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

re you between the ages of 6 and 21?Then there’s a good chance that you use acomputer, shop on the Web and talk to yourfriends by cell phone or Instant Messaging.You probably love hip-hop, extreme sports,

Cuban shirts and anything with polka dots. Like mostof your friends, you listen to your parents, dream ofowning your own business, and think your gener-ation just might change the world.

Who says? The pollsters who have made it theirbusiness to survey the more than 77.6 million kids,teenagers and young adults who make up GenerationY—people born between 1979 and 1994. In the yearsahead, the “Gen-Yers” will have the numbers toinfluence everything from the marketplace to theballot box. Pollsters—and the businesses and politi-cians who hire them—are already looking for cluesabout how you and your friends might flex youreconomic and political muscle.

In this article and the rest of Time’s polling guide,you will get a chance to meet the pollsters—theprofessionals who earn a living by finding out whatpeople think or do. You will also have the opportunityto act as a pollster yourself, conducting a survey inyour own school or community.

How do you feel?Pollsters have their fingers on the popular pulse. They measurepublic opinion—the attitudes or ideas held by a

significant number of people about aspecific subject or issue. Because oftheir work, many pollsters refer to themselves as“public opinion analysts.”

Through the use of numerical surveys, pollstersidentify the way people feel or act at a particularpoint in time. However, they know better than mostof us that people change their minds. So they viewany poll as a snapshot of public opinion at themoment the poll was taken. A new poll, taken later,can present an entirely different picture.

Why are you asking me? As anypollster would tell you, “You can’t survey the wholeuniverse.” In poll-talk, a universe is all the peoplewho make up the group that is to be studied, such asteenagers in Generation Y. So how did pollstersdiscover that most Gen-Y teens like e-mail betterthan snail mail? They selected what is known as arepresentative sample—a group small enough tosurvey but similar in makeup to the larger group(universe) to which they belong.

Pollsters pick members of a representative samplethrough a process known as random sampling, atechnique in which everyone in a universe has anequal chance of being selected. In the past, pollsterschose addresses at random, mailed out surveys, oreven sent pollsters to interview people in person.Today, however, 95 percent of all households havetelephones. So most pollsters use “random-digit

TIME’SPOLLINGGUIDE� � � � � �

Polls:It’s a Matter of OpinionA

“RIGOROUS SAMPLING IS THESCIENCE OF POLLING; THE CRAFTING OF MEANINGFUL QUESTIONS IS ITS ART.”

— Michael Kagay, editor of News Surveys, The New York Times

2

3

Harry S Truman had the last laugh in the 1948election. Ever since the 1930s, before every presi-dential and congressional election, Newsweekmagazine had taken a poll of 50 of the nation’s toppolitical reporters. The group had correctly predictedthe winner every single year and had come even closer than the national polls in predicting the percentages ofvictories. In 1948, the journalists handed the electionto Thomas E. Dewey by a margin of 50 to 0.

When an aide handed the results of the poll toPresident Truman, he grinned and said: “Forget it,they’re always wrong.” Truman knew what pollstersknow today—you have to get a representative samplefor accuracy. The magazine had polled journalists, not registered voters. As the embarrassing headlineabove shows, Truman was right. The blunderconvinced political pollsters to adopt the randomsampling methods widely used today. π

Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

dialing,” a method in which computers generate calllists based upon household exchanges (the first threedigits in a phone number).

A sample does not have to be as big as you mightimagine. As pollsters are quick to point out, a chef doesnot have to drink a whole pot of soup to find out if it’ssalty. A taste, or sample, will do. The same holds truefor a poll. In fact, the larger a universe, the better thechance for picking a small but representative group ofpeople. In national surveys, for example, pollsters aimfor 1,200 to 1,500 successful responses. In statewidepolls, they look for 600 to 1,200 responses.

Of course, sampling isn’t perfect. Answeringmachines can complicate the sampling process. So

can popular resentment of telemar-keting, or use of the telephone to selleverything from car insurance to creditcards to political candidates.

To estimate how much sampleresults may differ from the opinions ofthe population under study, pollstersuse a statistical formula to calculate a margin oferror (MoE). In most carefully conducted nationalsurveys, the margin of error, or “sampling error,” isusually plus or minus 3 percentage points. If a pollshows that 77 percent of teens value “having people’srespect,” with an MoE of 3 percent, then between 74and 80 percent of teens hold this value.


WHOOPS!In 1948, Harry Trumandefied pollsters’predictions

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4 Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

That’s a good question When it comesto questions, pollsters pick their words as carefully asthey pick their sample. Poorly worded questions, theuse of loaded words, or even the order in which ques-tions are asked can influence the responses peoplegive. To get accurate answers, pollsters must writequestions in a neutral, balanced and fair way.

Pollsters give similar thought to the responsesoffered in multi-choice questions. They not onlyword answers carefully, but they often vary the orderof answers from caller to caller. Research indicatesthat people may give special meaning to whateveroption comes first and that they may remember thelast option more clearly. To prevent a pattern fromdeveloping, pollsters present the options randomly.

Accurate responses also depend upon the abilityand willingness of people to answer the questions inthe first place. Interviewers use screening questionsto ensure that respondents belong to their sample. In polling Gen-Y teens, for example, they might say:“Hello. I’m conducting a survey of teenagers for Time Magazine. Could I speak with someone in yourhome between the ages of 13 to 19?”

If no teenagers live at the home or if the answer is “no,” the interviewer tries another random number.Once a respondent does agree to take the survey, the work of polling begins. The interviewer asks the questions in a pleasant but neutral tone, recordsthe answers, and, last but not least, thanks therespondent. If that respondent is you, don’t besurprised if you see your answers or opinionsrepeated in descriptions of Gen-Y teens like the onesat the start of this article.

Just the FAQs Thefollowing are some frequently askedquestions (faqs) about polls. For morequestions and answers, see theinterview with pollster John Zogby on page 6.

How did polls get their start?The earliest counterparts to modern opinion polls aretraced back to 1824. At that time, many states left theselection of presidential electors up to state legis-lators. To prove how out of touch legislators werewith the voters, several newspapers and magazinesconducted “straw polls.” (The name “straw polls” mayhave come from the phrase “tossing straws to thewind.”) By asking people to clip out “straw ballots”and mail them in, journalists were tossing theelection to the people. The straw polls showed whatstate legislators did not yet realize in 1824—thepeople wanted Andrew Jackson as President.

Who was the first President to use a pollster?Because we live in a democracy, politicians havealways been interested in the moods and opinions ofthe people. After all, they’re the ones who elect politi-cians. Probably the first President to hire an informalpollster was George Washington. He paid a friend tomingle among the “ordinary folks” to find out whatthey thought of his presidency. However, FranklinRoosevelt was the first President to use a “scientific”pollster. He choose Elmo Roper, a pioneer in statis-tical surveys, to use modern techniques to find outwhat people thought.


“AS I SEE IT, THE TECHNIQUE OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH MAY BE CAPABLE OF BEINGUSED TO EFFECT THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTION TO THEDEMOCRATIC PROCESS SINCE THE SECRET BALLOT.”—Elmo Roper, research director of Fortune’s Surveys of Public Opinion

5Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

Who conducts most of the polls today?Almost anyone can conduct a straw poll. Opinionscan be registered by call-ins, write-ins, or even theclick of a mouse. However, these “self-selected” pollsare not very accurate. They measure the opinion ofpeople who choose to respond. As a result, theyalways have what is referred to as a “biased sample.”

The work of scientific polling belongs to profes-sional polling organizations or to academic and non-profit research centers such as the Pew ResearchCenter for the People and the Press. Major newspapers and networks—for example, Time/cnn, The New York Times/cbs, and abc News/WashingtonPost—constantly conduct polls so that they can report the latest findings revealed in responses to questionsabout current issues.

Do people lie to pollsters?Most pollsters say a majority of people do not lie onsurveys because there is no clear incentive to do so.Nonetheless, some pollsters suspect that respondentshesitate to give answers that they think may be castin a bad light. For example, in the New York Citymayoral campaign of 1989 involving African-American candidate David Dinkins, and in theVirginia gubernatorial race of the same year involvingAfrican-American candidate Douglas Wilder, therewas evidence that voters were less likely than usual tobe candid in reporting their choices because theyrisked the appearance of voting based on racial preferences.

Who pays for most of the polling that is done in the United States?When people hear the word “polls,” theytend to think of political surveys. But by far thebiggest users of public opinion research are businessand industry. Companies attempt to measure every-thing from the effects of advertising, to controlledtests of new products, to efforts to improve theirpublic image.

Can pollsters be trusted? Generally, yes. An organization’s credibility dependsupon the accuracy of its results. Clients pay profes-sional pollsters to supply them with reliable infor-mation so that they can make informed decisions.That does not mean, however, that polls do not havetheir flaws or that people should not study them care-fully. Readers owe it to themselves to look at pollswith a critical eye. They should ask questions:π What is the purpose of this poll?π Who sponsored the study?π Who was interviewed?π How large was the sample?π How was the sample chosen?π What is the margin of error?π What questions did interviewers ask and in what

order did they ask them?π How was the survey conducted?π What is the track record of the group conducting

the survey?π Was anything going on in the nation or world that

might have influenced results?


“MORE AMERICANS AREFOOLED BY POLL RESULTSTHAN GET TRICKED BY INTEREST RATES.”—Christopher Matthews, syndicated columnist and author of Hardball: How Politics Is Played


An Interview with John ZogbyJohn Zogby, an independent pollster based in Utica, NewYork, had been in the polling business only since 1985 whenhe bewildered other pollsters with his dead-on forecasts inthe 1996 presidential race. Since that time, the firm of ZogbyInternational has gone on to forecast correctly the outcomesin more than a dozen elections, including the 2000 presi-dential race in Mexico. To get an insider’s view of polling, we invited John Zogby to talk with Time Classroom. Hereare some excerpts from the interview.

TC: You were once a high school and college teacher. What ledyou to become a pollster?JZ: I have always been fascinated by the whole concept ofpublic opinion and the fact that whether we live in ademocracy or the most despotic tyranny, public opinionstill plays a role. Even the worst tyrant can’t afford to becontemptuous of the public.

TC: Suppose you were still a teacher. What kind of training wouldyou tell students to get if they wanted to be a pollster?JZ: I love to tell kids this, because I’m fairly successful now, but I got a D in statistics! So it’s not the ultimateprerequisite, although it certainly doesn’t hurt. I knowstatistics, and I’m pretty good at it—and smart enough tohire people who are even better.

Here’s what I recommend to students all the time.Number one, get a solid social science background, any mix of sociology, psychology, economics and politicalscience. Number two, read novels. Novels give you theinsight into the depths of human character and emotionsbetter than anything else. Ultimately, [a pollster] measurespeople. So you must understand people to know just what all those statistics mean.

TC: When students see an ad on TV or in a magazine, is pollingusually attached to it?JZ: You can be absolutely certain that polling is behind it.Although we do traditional political surveys, the bulk of ourbusiness is really consumer market research.

TC: Here’s a popular caricature: Political candidates use polls todecide their position on issues. Do polls have that kind of influence?JZ: I know that’s what many people think. But I believethey would be surprised to learn that most politicians reallyuse polls for what they were designed to do—indicate

popular feeling on an issue or policy. Polls generally confirm what the politiciansalready know or lead them to do more research before acting.

TC: What are the most important technological changes sincethe development of scientific polling in the 1930s?JZ: What revolutionized the business were two inventions.One was the telephone and its proliferation so that 95-96%of all households have them. The other was the homecomputer. The computer allowed us to do polls faster, efficiently, and, in many ways, more accurately.

TC: How do you feel about the current debate over the use of theInternet to poll?JZ: We are among the polling firms that are heavily intoresearch and development on the use of the Internet. We are collecting a database of pre-screened respondentsand creating a large enough database so that we can drawrepresentative panels from the larger database. And then wee-mail surveys to this group. But, as I said, we are still in theresearch and development phase, so we use a telephone-based survey to confirm the results.

TC: Are the critics of Internet polls right when they say that thisform of surveying might produce headlines similar to the “DeweyDefeats Truman” headlines of the 1948 election?JZ: That’s a good question. Let me put it this way. TheInternet will dominate our field [public opinion research]sooner rather than later. So we want to be prepared. . . . I believe we will be able to work out the kinks—ensureprivacy, prevent people from voting twice, and otherobstacles to good research. I’m also of the belief that theInternet, starting in the United States and then spreadingto other parts of the world, will one day be as universal asthe telephone. We’re not there yet, but we need to go theextra mile and be ready when that day comes. Here’ssomething else. I foresee the blending of history with thefuture, when people’s faces appear on computer screens asthey talk to each other. Maybe we’re actually bringing backthe traditional face-to-face interview.

TC: One last question. You’re earning a great deal of fame forthe accuracy of your political predictions. Do you have somesecret ingredient for your success or you’re not telling?JZ: (Laughter) I’m not telling. But here’s a clue: samplingis everything.


Polling: An Insider’s View


Statistics from pollsshow up in the newsmedia all the time. But what dothey mean? Maybe nothing if thesurvey was not conducted correctly.As a result, you need to evaluate thepoll data found in news reports andadvertisements carefully todetermine whether or not it’sreliable. To practice interpretingpoll-driven news, read the pressrelease on this page. Then answerthe questions that follow.

Questions1. What is the subject of the pressrelease?

2. What poll data are used to supportthe claim made in the headline?

3. Who conducted the poll?

4. What was the universe surveyed?

5. How many people were interviewed, and how were theyselected?

6. Based on the margin of error,how many people in the populationstudied prefer suvs?

7. Why do you think the telephoneinterviewers did not offer respon-dents “not sure” as a choice?

8. Suppose these figures had comefrom a self-selected Internet poll.Would they be as reliable? Explain.


Poll-Driven News: It’s Worth EvaluatingP U B L I C O P I N I O N H E A D L I N E S

Wednesday July 5, 2000, 3:29 PM ET

Sport Utility Vehicles Are Today’s Rage for the RoadUTICA, N.Y. (Reuters/Zogby) — A red-hot convertible or a

pristine luxury car no longer is the dream vehicle for most Amer-

icans. A recent Zogby America survey of 1,264 adults nationwide*

reveals that sports utility vehicles (SUVs) have become the

favorite driving choice.

SUVs were chosen by 35% of Americans as the most popular

choice if they had the option of choosing any vehicle. Second on

the list were sedans with 24.3%. Another 20% wanted a sports car.

At the same time, 14.4% wanted a van, and 4.4% preferred a

station wagon.

Young adults between the ages of 18-29 overwhelmingly picked

sport utility vehicles (62%), while more than half (56%) of

Americans over the age of 65 preferred a sedan. Sedans were

also more popular among women (26%) than men (23%),

while 40% of men favored SUVs and 22% liked sports cars.

Thirty percent of women also wanted an SUV.

Married and single people agree that SUVs were the most desired

automobile, but they split on other favorite vehicles. Married

couples next preferred sedans at 26%, then vans (18%), and

sports cars (15%). Single Americans favored a sports car (30%)

and then sedans (18%).

What we asked: If you had the option to choose any type of car,

which of the following would you choose?

1. SUV 4. Van

2. Sports car 5. Station wagon

3. Sedan 6. Not sure (Do not read)

*Respondents randomly selected by region using CATI

(Computer Aided Telephone Interview) software; MoE ±3%.

# # # # # # # # # # # # # # #

Adapted and used with permission of Zogby International, Utica, NY.


Will online polling destroy the survey business? Are pollsters worried? Not yet. But most of them have plenty to say—pro and con—about the subject.Some pollsters believe accurate surveys can still beproduced, even though polls administered over theInternet admittedly only reach a select group ofpeople—those with computers. Others, like theGallup Organization, refuse to throw the telephonebook out the window until use of the Internetbecomes more widespread. Still others are taking await-and-see attitude, using a combination of tele-phone and Internet polls.

Explore the debate over Internet polls yourself byresearching the pros and cons of the three main typesof online surveys listed in the following table. Findout who’s using them (one name has already beenlisted) and how pollsters feel about each type of poll.Record information in the table or copy the tableonto a larger piece of paper. Add your own pro andcon arguments as well.

To find articles on this topic, use the words“polling,” “online polls,” or “Internet polls” to searchthe Web or the more traditional Reader’s Guide toPeriodical Literature. You might also check websites


Self-selected respondents reply to a survey posted on a website; an online straw poll.

1. Net Votes

Poll of known Internet usersrecruited through a variety ofInternet sources. “Demo-graphically balanced”samples,or panels, are chosen eachmonth and surveyed.

1. Harris Interactive

Samples chosen by randomdigital phone dialing, thenequipped with Internet-accessdevices so they can respond toWeb-based surveys.

1. InterSurvey

“Instant” Internet Polls

Online Survey Panels

Combination Telephone/Online Sample

POLLSTERS.COM<Polling the Mouse Potatoes*>

Description

WHO’S USING IT

PROS

CONS

*New slang for people who spend a lot of time at the computer; similar to “couch potato.”


maintained by polling organizations and/or the media. (A list of polling sites has been supplied.) When you have completed your research, compare your findings with those of your classmates.

Compile a complete list of pros and cons for each type of poll. Then answer these questions.

Questions1. Which of the three types of polls do you think produces the most accurate results? Explain.

2. Which of the three types of polls do you think produces the least accurate results? Explain.

3. Which would you trust more—a traditional poll conducted by telephone or one of the polls in the table? Explain.

4. Humphrey Taylor of Harris Interactive says, “We believe online research will be a huge part of the surveyresearch industry’s future.” Do you agree? If you were an investor, would you buy stock in Harris Interactive?Why or why not?


ABC News Poll Vaulthttp://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/pollvault/pollvault.html

Alliance for Better Campaignswww.bettercampaigns.org

American Association for Public Opinion Researchwww.aapor.org

CBS News Pollshttp://cbsnews.cbs.com/now/section/0,1636,215-412,00.shtml

Center on Policy Attitudeswww.policyattitudes.org

Eagleton Institute ofPolitics/Center for Public Interest Pollinghttp://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu

The Gallup Organizationwww.gallup.com

Harris Poll Onlinehttp://vr.harrispollonline.com

InterSurveywww.intersurvey.com

Los Angeles Times Pollswww.latimes.com/news/timespoll

Marist College Institute for Public Opinionwww.mipo.marist.edu

National Council on Public Pollswww.ncpp.org

NetVoteswww.netvotes.com

The New York Timeswww.nytimes.com

Opinion Dynamics Corporationwww.opiniondynamics.com

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Presswww.people-press.org

PollingReport.comwww.pollingreport.com

The Roper Center for Public Opinion Researchwww.ropercenter.uconn.edu

TIME Magazinewww.time.com

USA Today/CNN/Gallup Pollswww.usatoday.com/news/polldex.htm

The Washington Postwww.washingtonpost.com

Zogby Internationalwww.zogby.com

“If you want to survey people who do not have computers orwho are not online, you cannot do that online.” Warren J. Mitofsky, President

of Mitofsky International

“This is an unstoppable train. Those who don’t get on board run the risk of being left farbehind.” Humphrey Taylor, Chairman of Harris Interactive,

formerly Louis Harris & Associates


How high do politicians jumpwhen they read the polls?That depends on whom youask and the kind of poll thatyou are talking about (seebelow). Critics say that pollshave an undue influence onthe policies and positionsadopted by politicians, especially during elections.Supporters say polling allowselected officials to stay intouch with the people theyrepresent. Analyze this issuefor yourself by completing thefollowing exercises.

Questions1. What type of political poll forms the subject of this cartoon?2. What is the cartoonist’s opinion of how politicians use these polls?3. How does the cartoonist get this message across? 4. Suppose you wanted to poll people in your community to find out whether they agreed with the cartooniston this issue. How would you word your question and responses?

Bonus Activity: Have a classmate review your question and responses. Then use them to conduct a poll,following suggestions in this polling guide.

� � � � TYPES OF POLITICAL POLLS � � � �

π benchmark polls—polls taken at the beginning of a campaign to provide a baseline against which thecampaign’s effectiveness can be measured.

π tracking and brushfire polls—quick surveys done in the last few weeks of a campaign to determinehow voters are reacting to the positions and messages of candidates.

π push polls—polls designed specifically to influence the opinion of voters during the last few weeks of acampaign. Professional pollsters and the American Association for Public Opinion Research (aapor)consider push polls unethical.

π exit polls—polls designed to give an early indication of the results of an election by asking people howthey voted as they leave the election booth. Many critics claim exits polls influence voter behavior.


Political Poll Vaulting

By permission of Mike Luckovich and Creators Syndicate


One of the best ways to become an informeduser of polls is to design, conduct and evaluateyour own poll. You may not be able to produce a computer-generated sample like those used by professional polling

organizations. But you can still prepare a reasonably accurate survey based on suggested steps that have beentested by students all across the country.

Familiarize yourself with poll resultsfrom several different sources. A good place to start isPollingReport.com. This independent, nonpartisanorganization maintains an online journal of recentpolls conducted by a variety of organizations andmembers of the media. Its website can be found athttp://www.pollingreport.com

Set your standards high.Commit yourself to three basic polling principles:1. Generate the best sample possible.2. Word and sequence questions to eliminate asmuch bias as possible.3. Conduct the poll under conditions that maximizereliability. It may be easier to poll friends and rela-tives, but you will get richer and more accurateresults from a random, anonymous sampling of yourcommunity.

Write forced-response questions(also known as closed-ended questions). Phrase ques-tions so respondents must make choices that are easyto tabulate. Do not slant the questions in any way, andmake sure you do not use any loaded words. Evendetails such as a person’s title can influence arespondent’s opinion. For example, using the word“Senator” for one candidate when no other candidateshave similar titles may create an unbalanced set ofresponses. Examples of questions that might be usedin polling opinion of political candidates include:

1. If the election were being held today, whom wouldyou vote for?

❍ Candidate X

❍ Candidate Y

2. How important is Candidate X’s wartime record inwinning your vote?

❍ very important

❍ somewhat important

❍ unimportant

3. How much has Candidate Y’s voting record on envi-ronmental issues influenced your opinion of him/her?

❍ strongly influenced

❍ somewhat influenced

❍ hardly influenced at all

❍ not influenced at all

Devise high-quality response sheets.Use the preceding models to word questions so thatanswers may be easily checked or circled. Produceenough copies so that you can record the answers ofeach respondent on a separate sheet.

Select a random sample. Take a localtelephone book and tear out all the white pages.Shuffle these pages, and highlight every 7th, 9th or11th name on the list. (If you come from a huge city,make the number higher.) Skip over any businessesthat turn up in the white pages. Divide the high-lighted numbers among class members, and makearrangements for telephone time either at home or atschool. (Be aware that your sample excludes unlistednumbers.)

Team up with someone else. You’llwork faster and have more fun if you pair up. Oneperson can read off numbers, while the other dials.Ten pairs of students with a three-minute survey canmake 100-120 successful contacts in one or two hours.

TIME’SPOLLINGGUIDE� � � � � �Try It Yourself

Measuring Public Opinion:

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6


Plan your call. You will be morecomfortable and consistent if you script an intro-duction, such as the one on the sample form below.Open every call by introducing yourself. End everycall by saying “thank you” and “good night.”

Conduct the survey. Choose the hoursand/or days of the week when respondents are mostavailable. Avoid interrupting meals or calling late inthe evening. If possible, call back unanswerednumbers or numbers connected to an answeringmachine. Do not be discouraged by non-participants.Be courteous and accept a person’s decision not totake part in the survey.

Add up the results. Give response sheetsto a committee of students who will do the tallies.The committee should record the data in bothabsolute numbers and percentages. (Absolutenumbers might be: 20 said “yes” and 60 said “no.”

The following math will show the samefigures as percentages: 20 + 60 = 80respondents; 20 ÷ 80 = 25% who said“yes”; 60 ÷ 80 = 75% who said “no.”)Decide if one method of presentationseems more meaningful than another.

Analyze the results. As a class, seewhat generalizations, conclusions and/or predictionsyou can make on the basis of your poll.

Math whizzes (Mathletes) canfigure out a margin of error (MoE) by using thisformula: 1 , with N equaling the sample size.

√ N The following math will show you how to estimatethe margin of error for a sample of 1,600. The squareroot of 1,600 = 40, and 1/40 = .025, or 2.5%. Thus, themargin of error for this survey is 2.5%.


SAMPLE SURVEY FORMDate Time Phone number called

_____ no answer_____ answered and participated_____ answered but did not participate_____ number not in service, business, other problems

Introduction: Hello. I’m a student at (name of your school). As a class project, we are conducting a poll todetermine public opinion on (subject of survey). We have only a few quick questions. Could I please speak with (type of respondent sought, such as voting-age member of the household or teenager aged 13-19)?

Tip: Alternate asking for male and female respondents to get a better gender balance. Studies have shown that women household members tend to answer the phone more often than male members.

Questions and Responses (Add questions and responses as needed.) Question 1

❍ response A ❍ response B ❍ response C ❍ response D

Closing: Thank you very much for your time. Have a good evening.

STEP 7

STEP 8

STEP 9

EXTRA CREDIT

STEP 10

Special Interviewer Instructions: Remain courteous and polite.Read questions and responses in a balanced and neutral voice.

Documents

TIME’SPOLLING GUIDE