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Thinking about Nigeria. Poverty Colonialism Oil curse Corruption Ethnic/religious cleavages Federalism Legitimacy. Ethnic/ Religious Cleavages. Ethnic groups : Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), and Igbo(Ibo) (18%) Ijaw (10%) reside in the Niger delta area. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Thinking about Nigeria
• Poverty• Colonialism• Oil curse• Corruption• Ethnic/religious cleavages• Federalism• Legitimacy
Yr 2006
Population, total (millions) 144.7
Population growth (annual %) 2.4
HDICPI
.466 (151/177)1.6 (144/146)
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 46.6
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 100.0
Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) 81.3
GNI (current US$) (billions) 103.3
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 640.0
Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 3.9
Ethnic groups: Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), and Igbo(Ibo) (18%)Ijaw (10%) reside in the Niger delta area
Ethnic/ Religious Cleavages
Religious Cleavages: 50% Muslim (mainly in the north); 40% Christian (Anglicans, Baptists, Pentecostal), 10% other traditional.
Importantly – some tribes, such as Yoruba, while majority Christian, have sizeable non-Christian minorities
Regional differences: North – Muslim and underdeveloped; South – Christian modern; Middle zone – mixed religion
Nigeria is a rentier state95% export revenues from oilSignificant foreign company Involvement (e.g., Shell, Chevron)Member of OPEC
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) manages the state-owned oil industry.
Thinking about Nigeria - again
• Key questions– How is the legacy of colonialism reflected in
Nigerian politics?– How has oil helped and hurt Nigeria?– What role does ethnicity play in reinforcing the
country’s difficulties?– Why does Nigeria remain so poor?– How have alternations between civilian and
military regimes exacerbated Nigeria’s problems?
Nigeria History
• Sokoto Caliphate 1800 – 1900 north Islamic• Yoruba, Oyo, Ifo and Benin kingdoms in south• 1860 – 1945 British Colonial rule– Indirect rule/ warrant chiefs
• 1945 – 1960 move to independence– Increased inter-ethnic tensions– Anti-state sentiment
History since Independence 1960• First Republic parliament dominated by North• 1966 Military coup• 1967 – 1970 Biafran Civil War• 1975 another coup General Obasanjo sizes power• 1978-9 Second Republic new const. Federalism.
Elections – President Shagari• 1983 - 1993 Military Coup/1993 return to civilian
rule Third Republic/ another coup!!• 1993 – 1998 General Abacha
Biafran War – 1967 – 1970• 1 million died•Secessionist attempt by southeastern tribes
Nigeria since Abacha
• 1998 Abacha dies; General Adubakar brings back civilian rule; parties allowed to form again
• 1999 Fourth Republic Obasanjo wins presidency; his party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) wins assembly as well
• 2003 Pres. Obansanjo wins reelection• 2007 April President Umara Yar’Adua (Adua)
elected. PDP.
Political Culture
• Mass political culture• Elite culture• Non-electoral participation• Political parties and elections– The elections of 1999– The elections of 2003– The elections of 2007- The Elections of 2011 April
Political Culture
• Urban v. Rural; English v. non-English• Ethnic/ religious• Military rule, corruption create apathy• Democratic value at odds with traditional views
(esp. rural)• Elite depend on government largess– Interventionist state– Prebendalism (ethnic-based clients)– But more western democratic
Political Activity
• Lively press – esp. in Fourth Republic– Radio, TV important
• Youth movements• Some IGs – Transition Monitoring Group –
monitored 2003 elections• Currently press in anti-corruption mode• AIDS a major challenge
Elections – 4 since 1999
• Political Parties – multi-party 2 major– People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Obasanjo, • Liberalization of economy, e.g., privatized telephone
company; conservative on social values• In power since 1999
– All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)• Northern/ conservative associated with Abacha years
– Alliance for Democracy (AD)• progressive
Executive
• American style president 4 y term
• 2 term limit• National popular vote• President Umara
Yar’Adua (PDP)– April 2007 -2010 died
• Tradition of strong executive
YarAduaFulani, MuslimBusinessman
ObasanjoYoruba, Christian,Former military
President Goodluck Jonathan
• Takes over after Yar Adua’s death, May 2010• Wins presidential election April 2011
National Assembly of Nigeria
House of Representatives• 360 members/ 4 y terms• Last election April 2011• First past the post• Single-member districts• PDP 223; ANPP 96
Senate• 109 members/ 4 y terms• 3 senators represent each
of 36 states (plus one for capital Abuja)
• First past the post• PDP 76; ANPP 27
1996 – 37 States
1987 – 21 states
1963 - 4 regions
Nigerian States - present
Public Policy - Challenges• Democratization
– History of strong executive: Obasanjo’s bid for 3rd term. Legislature challenging executive
– Creation of INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) 2002
– Since 1999 tradition of elections. How free??– Relatively free press – Active though restricted judiciary
• Economic development and structural adjustment policies– Oil revenues Rentier state– Debt relief – see Obasanjo’s 8/2000 letter– Population growth– Poverty and AIDS
Challenges cont.
• Legitimacy of government– North v. South– National identity??– Sharia law in the north– Niger Delta violence– Evolving nature of federalism– Addressing corruption– Prebendalism (client/patron networks/ ethnic
based)
Describe two features of the Nigerian political system that keep it from being considered fully democratic.