The UKs Second Grocery Discount Boom - fbicgroup.com Second Grocery... · UK’s Second Grocery Discount Boom DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology

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December 2015

DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

• Mixed-‐goods discounters have grown fast in the UK, and have rapidly grown share in grocery categories.

• The six biggest mixed-‐goods discounters, in total, generate the majority of their sales from grocery categories, we estimate. Around £3.6 billion of food and beverages, health and beauty products, and household FMCGs will be sold through these retailers in 2015, we estimate, up by approximately £2.1 billion, or more than 140%, in five years.

• As a result, we estimate the six big mixed-‐goods discounters will hold an approximate 13% share in household FMCGs, a 6% share in beauty and personal care products, and a 2% share in food and nonalcoholic beverages in 2015.

• The growth in mixed-‐goods discounters is one element in the fragmentation of grocery spend—other strands include more shopping at convenience stores and at grocery discounters.

UK’s Second Grocery

Discount Boom

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r –

H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9 C H N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6

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THE UK’S SECOND GROCERY DISCOUNT BOOM Discount has been the big theme in UK grocery retail for the last couple of years. The growth of no-‐frills grocery discounters Aldi and Lidl has prompted price wars, deflation and negative comps among the biggest nondiscount grocery retailers.

Alongside the rise of Aldi and Lidl has been strong growth in mixed-‐goods discount stores such as B&M, Home Bargains, Poundland and 99p Stores. Similar to the dollar chains Dollar General and Family Dollar in the US, these retailers sell a range of goods, from homewares to pet care—but they are carving a significant niche in grocery. As we show in this report, nearly 60% of this sector’s sales are estimated to be in grocery categories, meaning that, in 2015, the top mixed-‐goods discounters will sell around £3.6 billion in grocery categories.

DEFINING A DISCOUNTER This report focuses on six big retailers that may variously be termed “nongrocery discounters,” “discount general merchandisers” and “pound stores.” None of these titles is fully accurate, given that these retailers generate a high proportion of sales from grocery categories and that several of the pound stores do not sell goods at a fixed price of £1. Therefore, we refer to these types of retailers as “mixed-‐goods discounters” in this report.

Inclusions and Exclusions We include the following six retailers in our discussion (in descending order of sales in 2014): B&M (UK only; we strip out the company’s German revenues), Home Bargains, Poundland, Poundworld, Poundstretcher and 99p Stores.

We exclude two similar retailers that are often grouped with the six named above: The Original Factory Shop and Wilko. The Original Factory Shop has a very different product mix, with a much more limited presence in grocery categories (it does not sell food or beverages) and a strong skew toward higher-‐value items such as homewares and apparel. Wilko, on the other hand, is much more of a value-‐positioned general merchandiser, with a softer positioning than the stores listed above; it also has a negligible food/beverage offering.

In 2015, the top mixed-‐goods discounters will sell around £3.6 billion in grocery categories.

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For the purposes of this report, we consider Poundland and 99p Stores as separate retailers, although the former acquired the latter in September 2015.

A £6 BILLION–PLUS CHANNEL The six biggest mixed-‐goods discounters have turned in exceptionally strong growth over the past five years, helped by major expansion of store networks. The chains have tapped shoppers’ increased willingness to buy from discount stores, but they have also gained from consolidating the previously fragmented discount mixed-‐goods sector.

The big six will turn over around £6.15 billion in sales in 2015, we estimate. This is an increase of about 135% from the £2.62 billion aggregate annual sales figure seen five years earlier, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6%.

Figure 1. Big Six Mixed-‐Goods Discounters: Total Sales

Source: S&P Capital IQ/company reports/FBIC Global Retail & Technology

B&M overtook Home Bargains to capture the first position in 2014. Poundland’s acquisition of 99p Stores, completed in September 2015, will immediately boost the former’s revenue by around 36%, we calculate. Here are the top six ranked by revenue:

Figure 2. Big Six Mixed-‐Goods Discounters: Revenues (£ Mil., Excl. VAT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

B&M UK 538* 764 989 1,247 1,526 Home Bargains 721 915 1,058 1,277 1,472 Poundland 691 780 880 998 1,117 Poundstretcher 308 348 368 395 421E Poundworld 133 207 294 345 422 99p Stores 231 270 342 370 402E Total 2,622 3,284 3,931 4,632 5,360 *2010 data are for B&M Retail Ltd. All other years are for B&M European Value Retail. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Source: S&P Capital IQ/company reports/FBIC Global Retail & Technology

2.62

3.28

3.93

4.63

5.36

6.15

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015E

£ Billion

99p Stores

Poundstretcher

Poundworld

Poundland

Home Bargains

B&M

The big six will turn over around £6.15 billion in sales in 2015, we estimate. This is an increase of about 135% from the £2.62 billion aggregate annual sales figure seen five years earlier.

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Carving Share in Grocery The real story, we think, is how much share these discount stores have carved in core grocery categories—food and beverages; health, beauty and personal care; and household fast-‐moving consumer goods (FMCGs). In 2015, we estimate the big six mixed-‐goods discounters will sell approximately £3.6 billion worth of goods across these categories.

This represents around 59% of the total sales of these six chains in 2015. By this measure, these retailers should perhaps be categorized as grocery retailers, even though the contribution from food and beverages is below what a regular grocer would see.

Based on company filings and FBIC store visits, this is how we think the big six chains’ estimated £6.15 billion of total revenues for calendar year 2015 will be split:

Figure 3. Big Six Mixed-‐Goods Discounters: Estimated Aggregate Sales Mix, 2015

Totals do not sum due to rounding. Source: Company reports/FBIC Global Retail & Technology

Grocery’s share of sales varies between the big six mixed-‐goods discounters. We estimate grocery categories contribute the greatest share of sales at Poundland (approximately 64%), Poundworld (64%) and 99p Stores (64%) and the smallest share at Poundstretcher (48%) and B&M (54%).

Food and Beverages

£1.9 Bil. (32%)

Health and Beauty

£1.0 Bil. (17%) Household FMCGs

£0.65 Bil. (11%)

Other, Incl. General

Merchandise £2.5 Bil. (41%)

In 2015, we estimate the big six mixed-‐goods discounters will sell approximately £3.6 billion worth of goods across grocery categories.

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Discounters’ Market Shares in Grocery Categories Below, we show the approximate estimated market share of the big six mixed-‐goods discount stores in grocery categories, based on market-‐size data from Mintel and Statista. Across the three grocery categories we focus on here, these stores took a near-‐3% share last year, we estimate.

This grocery total was depressed by the minor (<2%) share of spending on food and nonalcoholic beverages, due to discounters’ mainly ambient food offering. These retailers’ total share of household FMCGs and beauty was much more significant, we estimate.

Figure 4. Big Six Mixed-‐Goods Discounters: Estimated Aggregate Share of Selected Market Sizes (%)

*Market size used is for beauty and personal care products, excluding over-‐the-‐counter (OTC) healthcare. Discounters’ sales include a very small element of OTC healthcare, such as painkillers. **Total of food and nonalcoholic beverages, health and beauty and household FMCGs. Source: Company reports/Mintel/Statista/FBIC Global Retail & Technology

Selling £2 Billion More in Groceries than Five Years Ago We estimate the big six mixed-‐goods discounters will sell approximately £2.1 billion more per year in grocery categories in 2015 than they did in 2010. This is an increase of well over 140% in annual grocery sales over five years—above the 135% increase in total sales and reflecting an outperformance of categories such as food and beverages and beauty and personal care at these stores.

Of that approximate £2.1 billion projected increase, we estimate that more than £1 billion will be in food and beverages, and approximately £600 million will be in beauty and personal care. We believe these categories have outperformed due to a virtuous circle: rising sales have made the discount channel a more attractive prospect for major brand owners; in turn, as more recognized, big-‐name brands appear on shelves, the discount stores have proven more attractive to shoppers. Consequently, our estimates assume that the sales mix of these retailers has changed slightly over the five years through 2015, away from general merchandise in favor of food and beverages and health and beauty.

2.9

1.9

6.4

12.7

0 5 10 15

Grocery Categories in Aggregate**

Food and Nonalcoholic Beverages

Health and Beauty*

Household FMCGs

%

We estimate the big six mixed-‐goods discounters will sell approximately £2.1 billion more per year in grocery categories in 2015 than they did in 2010.

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Backing up our estimates are figures published by B&M when it launched its IPO in June 2014. The company said that, between fiscal year 2011 and fiscal year 2014:

• Procter & Gamble (P&G) increased sales to B&M by a CAGR of 58%. • Unilever grew sales to B&M by a CAGR of 169%. • PepsiCo increased sales to B&M by a CAGR of 33%. • Mondelez grew its sales to B&M by a CAGR of 15%.

These figures suggest, at B&M at least, that sales of big-‐name health and beauty brands (the cornerstone of P&G and Unilever) have likely grown more strongly than sales of branded food and beverage products have (reflected by PepsiCo and Mondelez).

Ahead of its IPO, Poundland confirmed a shift away from general merchandise toward faster-‐moving consumer products. And filings from Poundland also show the increasing importance of branded products: third-‐party brands grew their share from 59% of total Poundland sales in fiscal year 2011 to 63% in fiscal year 2013.

A Part of the Discount Grocery Boom The grocery boom in the mixed-‐goods discounters has occurred alongside strong growth in the grocery hard discounters, Aldi and Lidl. Collectively, the mixed-‐goods discounters and Aldi and Lidl will account for around £14.5 billion in grocery sales in 2015, we estimate, up by more than 40% in just two years.

Figure 5. Estimated Grocery Category Sales by Major UK Discounters (£ Bil., Excl. VAT)

CY2013 CY2014 CY2015E

Big Six Mixed-‐Goods Discounters 2.7 3.1 3.6 Aldi and Lidl 7.5 9.4 10.9 Total Major Discounters 10.2 12.6 14.5 Grocery Retailers’ Sector Sales 127.6 128.9 128.4

Nongrocery sales stripped out of all retailers Source: Company reports/FBIC Global Retail & Technology

Collectively, the mixed-‐goods discounters and Aldi and Lidl will account for around £14.5 billion in grocery sales in 2015, we estimate, up by more than 40% in just two years.

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Why Does This Matter? For rival retail sectors, the effects are twofold: increased price competition and a splintering of grocery sales across different types of retailers. First, price-‐led competition has a depressing effect on grocery prices. In the UK, we have seen price wars among major supermarkets as they attempt, principally, to tackle the threat of Aldi and Lidl—but mixed-‐goods discounters are exerting a secondary pressure to compete on price, particularly in nonfood categories such as beauty and personal care and household FMCGs.

Second, the increased willingness of British shoppers to buy from mixed-‐goods discount stores as well as from grocery discounters contributes to a fragmentation of grocery spending. The switch to discount channels can encourage mix-‐and-‐match shopping, where shoppers use multiple types of stores and channels instead of making one trip to a big grocery store.

For supermarkets, this fragmentation can hit profitability at the store level: grocery retail is highly volume sensitive, with even a minor downturn in sales having the potential to hit store profitability disproportionately. And a sustained fragmentation of grocery spend poses a threat to retailers that have built their business on serving bigger baskets.

Figure 6. Potential Fragmentation of Grocery Spend

For brand owners, meanwhile, the rise of these stores means they have a new, highly price-‐sensitive channel to serve. And having to serve it means associating midmarket brands, from Cadbury to Pantene, with discount prices—something many brand owners would prefer to avoid.

The switch to discount channels can encourage mix-‐and-‐match shopping, where shoppers use multiple types of stores and channels instead of making one trip to a big grocery store.

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Key Takeaways A £6 billion–plus channel, the mixed-‐goods discount stores are a major part of the discount boom in the UK. British shoppers have become accustomed to cheap groceries and, in the case of the mixed-‐goods discounters, buying big-‐name brands at ultralow prices.

The mixed-‐goods discounters, in total, generate the majority of their sales from grocery categories, we estimate. Around £3.6 billion of food and beverages, health and beauty products, and household FMCGs will be sold through this channel in 2015, we estimate, up by approximately £2.1 billion, or more than 140%, in five years.

As a result, we estimate the six big mixed-‐goods discounters will hold an approximate 13% share in household FMCGs, a 6% share in beauty and personal care products, and a 2% share in food and nonalcoholic beverages in 2015.

The growth in mixed-‐goods discounters is one element in the fragmentation of grocery spend—other strands include more shopping at convenience stores and at grocery discounters. This poses challenges for brand owners, which must serve this channel without damaging their brand’s value. And it heaps yet more competitive pressures on established grocery retailers.

Around £3.6 billion of food and beverages, health and beauty products, and household FMCGs will be sold through this channel in 2015, we estimate, up by approximately £2.1 billion, or more than 140%, in five years.

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December 2015


Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director—Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852 6119 1779 China: 86 186 1420 3016 [email protected] Filippo Battaini [email protected] John Harmon, CFA [email protected] Aragorn Ho [email protected] John Mercer [email protected] Shoshana Pollack [email protected] Kiril Popov [email protected] Jing Wang [email protected] Steven Winnick [email protected] Eddie Wong [email protected] HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: 852 2300 2470 NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9th Floor New York, NY 10018 Tel: 646 839 7017 LONDON: 242-‐246 Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0)20 7616 8988 FBICGROUP.COM

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The UKs Second Grocery Discount Boom - fbicgroup.com Second Grocery... · UK’s Second Grocery Discount Boom DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology