The Suburban Chicago Residential Market -- An Overview --

The Suburban Chicago Residential Market-- An Overview --

Presented by G. Tracy CrossPresident, Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

September 20, 2012

New Home Sales

2004 1,203,00031,843Year-Over-Year +10.6%+13.1%

2005 1,283,00033,287Year-Over-Year +6.7%+4.5%

2006 1,052,00025,105Year-Over-Year -18.0%-24.6%

2007 776,00015,377Year-Over-Year -26.2%-38.7%

2008 485,0006,361Year-Over-Year -37.5%-58.6%

2009 374,0003,552Year-Over-Year -22.9%-44.2%

2010 322,0003,101Year-Over-Year -14.1%-12.7%Variance From 2005 -74.9%-90.7%

2011 305,0002,932Year-Over-Year -5.3%-5.4%Variance From 2005 -76.2%-91.2%

2012 358,000(2)

3,196Year-Over-Year +17.3%+9.0%Variance From 2005 -72.1%-90.4%

U.S.(1) Chicago

(1) Single family home sales.(2) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

Trends in Production New Home Salesby Product Type

1Q94

2Q94

3Q94

4Q94

1Q95

2Q95

3Q95

4Q95

1Q96

2Q96

3Q96

4Q96

1Q97

2Q97

3Q97

4Q97

1Q98

2Q98

3Q98

4Q98

1Q99

2Q99

3Q99

4Q99

1Q00

2Q00

3Q00

4Q00

1Q01

2Q01

3Q01

4Q01

1Q02

2Q02

3Q02

4Q02

1Q03

2Q03

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,000

Total Single Family Townhome/Condominium

Total Sales (SAAR)

Note: DeKalb County, IL and Kenosha County, WI included starting 2nd Quarter 2003.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

New Home Sales Chicago Region-- Suburban Area --

Year Total

1993 15,815 8,925 6,8901994 15,161 8,424 6,7371995 16,919 9,329 7,5901996 17,027 9,822 7,2051997 17,135 9,807 7,3281998 18,840 11,069 7,7711999 19,742 11,556 8,1862000 20,132 11,727 8,4052001 22,717 12,820 9,8972002 23,185 13,995 9,1902003 24,861 14,281 10,5802004 25,699 14,208 11,4912005 25,761 14,374 11,3872006 19,354 10,392 8,9622007 11,302 5,873 5,4292008 4,880 2,655 2,2252009 2,913 1,464 1,4492010 2,508 1,219 1,2892011 2,326 1,203 1,123

2012(1) 2,667 1,622 1,045

(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

CondominiumFamilySingle Townhome/

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

Total Single Family Townhome/Condominium

Total Sales


New Home Sales Chicago Region-- Suburban Area --

(1)

Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

Northern CorridorNorthwestern CorridorWestern CorridorSouthwestern CorridorSouthern CorridorCity of ChicagoDeKalb County, ILKenosha County, WI

McHenry County

Kenosha County, WI

Northern Lake County

South CentralLake County

NorthShore

Near North

City ofChicago

Southern CorridorSouthwestern Corridor

EasternDuPage County/WesternCook CountySouthwestern

DuPage County/Aurora/Kendall County

St. Charles/Batavia/Geneva

DeKalbCounty

Northern DuPage County

Arlington Heights/Palatine/Wheeling

Schaumburg/Hoffman Estates/Streamwood/Elk Grove Village

Northern Fox Valley

The Chicago Region’s 17 Representative Submarkets

Chicago Metropolitan Area 14,598 1,229 1,638 -91.6 -88.8City of Chicago 224 26 16 -88.4 -92.9Suburban Area 14,374 1,203 1,622 -91.6 -88.7

Northern Corridor 1,463 224 275 -84.7 -81.2Northwestern Corridor 3,687 436 531 -88.2 -85.6Western Corridor 3,134 290 436 -90.7 -86.1Southwestern Corridor 4,277 165 320 -96.1 -92.5Southern Corridor 1,118 31 38 -97.2 -96.6DeKalb County 385 15 9 -96.1 -97.7Kenosha County, WI 310 42 13 -86.5 -95.8


2011 2011 2012(1)

Percent Change

2012(1)Total Single Family Sales 2005 - 2005 -

Corridor 2005

Single Family Sales Trends by Area2005, 2011, and 2012

Per Project Sales Rates – The Single Family Sector-- Suburban Chicago --

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

0.003.006.009.00

12.0015.0018.0021.0024.0027.0030.0033.0036.0039.00

(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.


Average Annual Sales by Development

(1)

31.1229.9533.4535.1932.4732.4430.4621.9913.36

6.914.755.175.988.57

SuburbanYear Area

Average ANNUALSales by Development

19992000200120022003

2010

2012(1)

200420052006200720082009

2011

Suburban Single Family Sales Leaders-- YTD June 2012 --

Program Location

Autumn Creek Fields Yorkville Pulte $205,990 49.14Blackberry Crossing-West Montgomery Ryland 200,190 41.86Winchester Glen-Meadows Carpentersville Pulte 223,190 40.98Liberty Lakes Wauconda K. Hovnanian 245,138 40.84Churchill Club-Derby/Arlington Oswego K. Hovnanian 229,852 36.40Symphony Meadows-Prairie Volo D.R. Horton/Cambridge 214,561 36.40Lakewood Crossing-Meadows Hampshire Ryland 169,990 34.61Cambridge Lakes-Meadow/Prairie Pingree Grove D.R. Horton/Cambridge 207,323 34.58Providence-Cape Cod Estates Elgin K. Hovnanian 297,648 32.76Talamore-Landmark Huntley Ryland 229,390 32.76Providence-Blackstone Elgin K. Hovnanian 248,995 32.69Talamore-Hartford Huntley Ryland 285,323 30.94Grande Park-Anfield Plainfield Ryan 268,865 30.94Whitmore Place St. Charles M/I 267,323 29.12Carillon at Stonegate Aurora D.R. Horton/Cambridge 220,990 27.30Cambridge at Heatherstone-Horizon Beach Park D.R. Horton/Cambridge 195,178 27.30Mill Creek-Tanna Geneva ShoDeen 303,390 27.30Misty Ridge Romeoville Beechen Dill 237,490 27.30

(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

Sales PriceAverage Base

SAARYTD June

Builder 2012(1)

Chicago Metropolitan Area 18,689 1,703 1,558 -90.9 -91.7City of Chicago 7,302 580 513 -92.1 -93.0Suburban Area 11,387 1,123 1,045 -90.1 -90.8

Northern Corridor 2,294 236 266 -89.7 -88.4Northwestern Corridor 2,676 275 237 -89.7 -91.1Western Corridor 3,158 430 351 -86.4 -88.9Southwestern Corridor 1,710 124 111 -92.7 -93.5Southern Corridor 1,110 45 75 -95.9 -93.2DeKalb County 308 4 5 -98.7 -98.4Kenosha County, WI 131 9 0 -93.1 ---


Corridor 2005 2011 2012(1)

Percent Change 2005 - 2005 -

2011 2012(1)

Total Townhome/Condominium Sales

Townhome/Condominium Sales Trends by Area2005, 2011, and 2012

Townhome/Condominium Sales Trends-- The New Construction Sector – Suburban Chicago --

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,000

(1)

Total Sales

7,967 337 23.638,547 324 26.35

10,012 318 31.519,141 325 28.16

10,935 376 29.1111,489 392 29.3211,276 436 25.84

8,613 471 18.305,098 484 10.542,181 448 4.871,423 373 3.821,287 289 4.461,123 213 5.261,044 171 6.12


2009

2011 2012(1)

Numberof Active

Communities

20032004

20012002

2010

2005200620072008

Year Sales Community

19992000

AverageAnnual

Total Volume Per

Moderate Density Condominium Sales Trends-- The New Construction Sector – Suburban Chicago --

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,600

(1)

Total Sales

1,345 62 21.671,391 64 21.851,763 60 29.251,450 60 24.002,067 80 25.852,367 94 25.132,389 109 21.952,009 117 17.17

759 120 6.30292 106 2.76185 84 2.20301 65 4.63197 47 4.16120 37 3.22


2011 2012(1)

200520062007200820092010

199920002001200220032004

Total of Active Volume PerYear Sales Communities Community

AverageNumber Annual

Suburban Attached Sales Leaders-- YTD June 2012 --

Program Location

Regency at The Glen-Villas Glenview Pulte $431,240 127.86Mayfair-Grant Park Naperville M/I 260,240 41.86Talamore-Towns Huntley Ryland 139,990 38.22Sheffield Square-Uptown Orland Park M/I 215,240 37.93Patriot Square-Seaboard Plainfield D.R. Horton/Cambridge 150,000 30.94Regency at The Glen-Townes Glenview Pulte 325,740 29.06Shelbourne Crossing Winfield M/I 215,240 27.30Mayfair-Uptown Naperville M/I 226,240 25.48Arlington Crossings Arlington Heights Pulte 276,990 24.24

(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

Builder Sales Price 2012(1)

SAARAverage Base YTD June

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

03,0006,0009,000

12,00015,00018,00021,00024,00027,00030,00033,00036,00039,00042,000

0.04.08.012.016.020.024.028.032.036.040.044.048.052.056.0

New Construction Home Sales By Public And Private Companies

Percent CapturePublic Builders (Line)

Total SalesRegion (Bar)

(1)

24,327 2,641 10.9 21,686 89.125,615 3,690 14.4 21,925 85.627,012 4,692 17.4 22,320 82.626,616 5,849 22.0 20,767 78.028,158 6,943 24.7 21,215 75.331,843 7,952 25.0 23,891 75.033,287 9,369 28.1 23,918 71.925,105 7,466 29.7 17,639 70.315,377 4,783 31.1 10,594 68.9

6,361 2,294 36.1 4,067 63.93,552 1,722 48.5 1,830 51.53,101 1,374 44.3 1,727 55.72,932 1,451 49.5 1,481 50.53,196 1,787 55.9 1,409 44.1


Public Builders Private BuildersPercent

Year Sales Sales Capture Sales CaptureTotal Percent Total

(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.

2012(1)

2003

20062007

2001

20082009

20112010

20042005

Total

2002

19992000

The Suburban Rental Market-- An Overview --

“Not all households like these choose to live in the city.”

Rental Apartment Vacancy Trends-- Suburban Chicago --

All Communities

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.0

(1)

Percent Vacant

(1) As of June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012

$800$850$900$950

$1,000$1,050$1,100$1,150$1,200$1,250

$0.85$0.90$0.95$1.00$1.05$1.10$1.15$1.20$1.25$1.30

Average Monthly Rent Rent Per Sq. Ft.

Average Monthly Rent (Bar)


Rent Per Sq. Ft. (Line)

(1) As of June 2012.

(1)

Monthly Rent Trends-- Suburban Chicago --

Post 1985 Rental Communities

Rent/Value Analysis – A Composite Summary-- Suburban Chicago Apartment Communities --

Number of Programs 71 49 21

Number of Units 16,092 9,077 3,361Average Per Program 227 185 160

Average Year Built 1997 2003 2006

Average Plan Size (Sq. Ft.) 991 967 1,007

Average Monthly Rent $1,315 $1,307 $1,681Per Sq. Ft. $1.33 $1.35 $1.67

Slope (Average Rent Movement $0.89 $0.99 $1.22Per Incremental Sq. Ft.)

Average Monthly Rent:@ 600 Sq. Ft. $967 $944 $1,184@ 700 Sq. Ft. 1,056 1,043 1,306@ 800 Sq. Ft. 1,145 1,142 1,428@ 900 Sq. Ft. 1,234 1,241 1,550@ 1,000 Sq. Ft. 1,323 1,340 1,672@ 1,100 Sq. Ft. 1,412 1,439 1,794@ 1,200 Sq. Ft. 1,501 1,538 1,916@ 1,300 Sq. Ft. 1,590 1,637 2,038


Attribute or Later or Later or Later

All Programs All Programs Mixed-Use ProgramsBuilt in 1995 Built in 2000 Constructed in 2000

Mid-Density/

Rental Apartment Absorption Trends-- Suburban Chicago --

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012

-800-400

0400800

1,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2003,6004,000

(1)

Net Absorption in Units

(1) Annualized pace for the first six months of the year.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.

Some Final Comments

Documents

The Suburban Chicago Residential Market -- An Overview --