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The State of the GCC Fertilizers Industry · PDF fileThe State of the GCC Fertilizers Industry Khalifa Al-Suwaidi, ... China GCC Russia Iran Ukraine Egypt Indonesia ... GCC Fertilizer

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  • The State of the GCC Fertilizers Industry

    Khalifa Al-Suwaidi,

    Advisor, QAFCO &

    Chairman, GPCA Fertilizer Committee

  • Agenda

    Current GCC Industry Landscape

    Production Capacities

    Global Position

    Trade

    Employment

    Sales Revenue

    Future Directions

    Key Challenges & Opportunities

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry - Landscape

    Source: GPCA, 2016

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry - Capacity

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    Asia50%

    Eastern Europe & Central Asia

    14%

    North America10%

    GCC6%

    Latin America5%

    West Europe5%

    Africa5%

    Central Europe4%

    Oceania1%

    GLOBAL AMMONIA PRODUCTION CAPACITY2016 TOTAL 220.5 MILLION TONS

    Global position

    Asia, 62%

    Eastern Europe & Central Asia, 8%

    GCC, 8%

    North America, 7%

    Africa, 6%

    Latin America, 4%

    West Europe, 3% Central Europe, 2%

    GLOBAL UREA PRODUCTION CAPACITY2016 TOTAL 217.5 MILLION TONS

    Source: IFA Production and International Trade, 2016

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry Global Urea Trade

    29%27%

    11%

    4% 3%2% 2%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    China GCC Russia Iran Ukraine Egypt Indonesia

    2014 2014 Share

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry Exports

    Saudi Arabia34%

    Qatar31%

    Oman16%

    UAE10%

    Kuwait6%

    Bahrain3%

    Source: UN, 2016

    911 12 12

    1213 13

    16 1719 19

    23

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

    MIL

    LIO

    NS

    TON

    S

    CAGR (2005 - 2015)7.6% p.a.

    * - Expected

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry Employment

    5.7 6.0 6.0 6.06.3 6.5

    8.6

    10.6

    12.213.0

    13.814.3

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    YOY

    GR

    OW

    TH

    THO

    USA

    ND

    S

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry Sales Revenue

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    GCC Fertilizer Industry Top Export Destinations

    Source: UN, 2016

    India26%

    USA22%

    Brazil12%

    Thailand9%

    Australia8%

    Pakistan4%

    South Africa3%

    Others16%

    TOP EXPORT DESTIATIONS FOR GCC FERTILIZER INDUSTRY2015 TOTAL: 19.1 MILLION TONS

    21%14% 11%

    31% 36%36% 40%

    79%86% 89%

    69% 64%64% 60%

    India USA Brazil Thailand Australia Pakistan South Africa

    SHARE OF GCC IN TOTAL FERTILIZER IMPORT FOR TOPEXPORT MARKETS

    GCC Other Countries

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    Future Directions Key markets

    Market Description

    India It is forecasted that India will become the fifth largest consumer economy in the world by 2025. Indias food consumption will increase with growth in population and income. This will require a corresponding increase in agricultural production, which in turn will drive increased demand for crop nutrients

    Brazil Brazil is one of the largest and fastest growing fertilizer import markets in the world, with a projected 3% annual growth of nutrient consumption between 2015 and 2017. Brazil has the fourth highest consumption of crop nutrients in the world and is the worlds second largest import market

    Africa Africa and the Middle East are markets with significant future growth potential. In 2015, African countries consumed 5.2 million tons of nutrients, out of them just over 3 million is nitrogen. Agriculture contributes significantly to the GDP of Africa and the Middle East and there is significant growth potential, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • | Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times

    Main Challenges for Fertilizer Producers

    Fertilizer prices under pressure

    Low energy prices, leading to diminishing production costs and lowering nitrogen prices

    Rising capacities

    Urea consumption restrictions in certain areas due to environmental issues

  • Thank You!www.gpca.org.ae

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