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The State of the GCC Fertilizers Industry
Khalifa Al-Suwaidi,
Advisor, QAFCO &
Chairman, GPCA Fertilizer Committee
Agenda
Current GCC Industry Landscape
Production Capacities
Global Position
Trade
Employment
Sales Revenue
Future Directions
Key Challenges & Opportunities
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry - Landscape
Source: GPCA, 2016
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry - Capacity
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
Asia50%
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
14%
North America10%
GCC6%
Latin America5%
West Europe5%
Africa5%
Central Europe4%
Oceania1%
GLOBAL AMMONIA PRODUCTION CAPACITY2016 TOTAL 220.5 MILLION TONS
Global position
Asia, 62%
Eastern Europe & Central Asia, 8%
GCC, 8%
North America, 7%
Africa, 6%
Latin America, 4%
West Europe, 3% Central Europe, 2%
GLOBAL UREA PRODUCTION CAPACITY2016 TOTAL 217.5 MILLION TONS
Source: IFA Production and International Trade, 2016
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry – Global Urea Trade
29%27%
11%
4% 3%2% 2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
China GCC Russia Iran Ukraine Egypt Indonesia
2014 2014 Share
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry – Exports
Saudi Arabia34%
Qatar31%
Oman16%
UAE10%
Kuwait6%
Bahrain3%
Source: UN, 2016
911 12 12 12
13 13
16 1719 19
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
MIL
LIO
NS
TON
S
CAGR (2005 - 2015)7.6% p.a.
* - Expected
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry – Employment
5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5
8.6
10.6
12.213.0
13.814.3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
YOY
GR
OW
TH
THO
USA
ND
S
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry – Sales Revenue
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
GCC Fertilizer Industry – Top Export Destinations
Source: UN, 2016
India26%
USA22%
Brazil12%
Thailand9%
Australia8%
Pakistan4%
South Africa3%
Others16%
TOP EXPORT DESTIATIONS FOR GCC FERTILIZER INDUSTRY2015 TOTAL: 19.1 MILLION TONS
21%14% 11%
31% 36% 36% 40%
79%86% 89%
69% 64% 64% 60%
India USA Brazil Thailand Australia Pakistan South Africa
SHARE OF GCC IN TOTAL FERTILIZER IMPORT FOR TOPEXPORT MARKETS
GCC Other Countries
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
Future Directions – Key markets
Market Description
India It is forecasted that India will become the fifth largest consumer economy in the world by 2025. India’s food consumption will increase with growth in population and income. This will require a corresponding increase in agricultural production, which in turn will drive increased demand for crop nutrients
Brazil Brazil is one of the largest and fastest growing fertilizer import markets in the world, with a projected 3% annual growth of nutrient consumption between 2015 and 2017. Brazil has the fourth highest consumption of crop nutrients in the world and is the world’s second largest import market
Africa Africa and the Middle East are markets with significant future growth potential. In 2015, African countries consumed 5.2 million tons of nutrients, out of them just over 3 million is nitrogen. Agriculture contributes significantly to the GDP of Africa and the Middle East and there is significant growth potential, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa
| Steering the Fertilizer Industry through Challenging Times
Main Challenges for Fertilizer Producers
Fertilizer prices under pressure
Low energy prices, leading to diminishing production costs and lowering nitrogen prices
Rising capacities
Urea consumption restrictions in certain areas due to environmental issues
Thank You!www.gpca.org.ae
