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The State of Arctic Sea IceGary Hufford, NOAA/NWS Alaska Region
Lawson Brigham, Executive DirectorArctic Research Commission
Comments on Sea Ice in the Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment and Future Needs for Coastal Alaska
PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave WorkshopAnchorage, Alaska 2 - 3 August 2005
Lawson BrighamDeputy Director, U.S. Arctic Research Commission
Sea IceSea Ice Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coveragea decrease of coverage
• Decrease isDecrease is largest inlargest in summersummer
• Decrease isDecrease is largest sincelargest since late 1980slate 1980s
Sea
Ice
Ext
ent
(mill
ion
km
2 )
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sea
Ice
Ext
ent
(mill
ion
km
2 )
16 September 200216 September 2002
16 September 200316 September 2003
16 September 200416 September 2004
16 September 200216 September 2002 16 September 200316 September 2003 16 September 200416 September 2004
Arctic Climate Impact AssessmentArctic Climate Impact AssessmentClimate model projections of sea ice extent:Climate model projections of sea ice extent:
2000 - 21002000 - 2100
MarchMarch SeptemberSeptember
MAR SEPT
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
‘Arctic Sea Ice Atlas of the Future’
Projected Ice Extent – Hadley Model
Sea Ice in Alaska’s Coastal Seas
• 23 June 2005 – Established working group
• Represented – USARC, AOOS, NWS (Anchorage), UAF, NIC, NSIDC, PMEL, USFWS, CRREL, UW/APL
• Issue – Lack of long-term, robust sea ice data set for Alaska’s coastal seas
• Needs
- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
- Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment
- Integrated Bering Sea Ecosystem Research
- Many Stakeholders
Examples of Ongoing Sea Ice Work
• NWS – Regional sea ice charts
• NIC – Global charts; George Mason U. digitizing for usable database
• NSIDC – W. Dehn collection ~ 7000 charts (1953 – 1986)
• PMEL – SAR data analysis
• CRREL – Range of research
• UAA/MMS – Sea ice atlas
• UAF – Spring leads/landfast; energy + mass balance; HF radar; ice thickness by airborne sensing
• UW/APL – Fast ice; range of research