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THE SANDWIP – URIR CHAR – NOAKHALI CROSS DAM: - One of the Definite Means for Survival and Improvement in Quality of Lives of Lacs of People of Bangladesh. (This is a compilation from different publications produced over a period of time and consequently some of the quoted numbers and figures might be indicative in the present-day context. The expressed views are personal opinion of the writer. Acknowledgements are being expressed collectively to the sources and others concerned.) Executive Summary Bangladesh with a total area of 1,44,000 sq. km has a population of about 150 million. Population density of 1045 per sq. km ranks it 11 th in the world. Availability of lands for agriculture is decreasing day–by-day. About 100 sq. km is eroded by river and another approximate 1300 sq. km is taken away from agricultural to non-agricultural uses, each year. Population increase of 2.1% per year is creating stress on available food and other basic amenities. Increase of population and simultaneous reduction of agricultural lands are creating double jeopardy. The dwindling 15% forest cover (ideal 25%) has put the natural environment of the country in a critical state. At present about 0.9 sq. km land rises each year in the Meghna Estuary due to natural accretion. The aspect of interventions to accelerate the natural accretion processes for reclamation of land is yet to get due attention. Effective measures to hold the 2.4 billion tons of sediment passing through the Ganges – Brahmaputra – Meghna rivers system would have given rise to about 200 sq. km of land each year in the Meghna Estuary. Setting-up of cross dams in estuary for land reclamation is commensurate with the guide lines of various national policies and plans as well as complementary to the national efforts for achievement of the PRSP targets and MDGs Implementation of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam will change the regional topography by accretion of a vast tract of land. The Cross Dam extends for about 23 km from Sandwip coast to Char Elahi bank (Companiganj P.S. of Noakhali) via Urir Char. The Cross Dam with its 2 closures will give rise to about 360 sq. km of land within a period of 30 years at an expenditure of about 650 million taka. Population directly benefited by the Project will exceed 180,000 in number. Direct benefits of the project include: lands for housing, agriculture and forestry; direct over-land road communications for islands dwellers; opportunities for employment & economic activities; protection from cyclone and tidal bore etc. Indirect benefits include food security for local people as well as nation; creation of job opportunities; availability of forest products, improvement of environment etc. Negative impacts of the Cross Dam have been found to be insignificant. The only anticipated significant negative impact is increasing the extent of ‘water-logging’ in Noakhali mainland. Water-logging is already there and is aggravating with passage of time due to natural extension of the Noakhali coast. Solution lies in diverting the existing south-ward drainage flows to the perennial channels on the eastern and/or western sides. Project or no project, a comprehensive drainage scheme has to be taken for removal of drainage congestions of Noakhali. Such a program will also eliminate the consequential negative impact of the Cross Dam. The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam has the potentials to go a long way in solving the double jeopardy mentioned above. The Project will change the quality of life of a big population. Time is running out for taking advantages of favorable morphological situation of accelerated accretion of the estuary. At present, it will be possible to close the channels of the Cross Dam in an economic way with minimum risks and adverse environmental impacts. The earlier the project is implemented the better. S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 1 of 12

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THE SANDWIP – URIR CHAR – NOAKHALI CROSS DAM: - One of the Definite Means for Survival and Improvement in

Quality of Lives of Lacs of People of Bangladesh.

(This is a compilation from different publications produced over a period of time and consequently some of the quoted numbers and figures might be indicative in the present-day context. The expressed views are personal opinion of the writer. Acknowledgements are being expressed collectively to the sources and others concerned.)

Executive Summary

Bangladesh with a total area of 1,44,000 sq. km has a population of about 150 million. Population density of 1045 per sq. km ranks it 11th in the world. Availability of lands for agriculture is decreasing day–by-day. About 100 sq. km is eroded by river and another approximate 1300 sq. km is taken away from agricultural to non-agricultural uses, each year. Population increase of 2.1% per year is creating stress on available food and other basic amenities. Increase of population and simultaneous reduction of agricultural lands are creating double jeopardy. The dwindling 15% forest cover (ideal 25%) has put the natural environment of the country in a critical state. At present about 0.9 sq. km land rises each year in the Meghna Estuary due to natural accretion. The aspect of interventions to accelerate the natural accretion processes for reclamation of land is yet to get due attention. Effective measures to hold the 2.4 billion tons of sediment passing through the Ganges – Brahmaputra – Meghna rivers system would have given rise to about 200 sq. km of land each year in the Meghna Estuary. Setting-up of cross dams in estuary for land reclamation is commensurate with the guide lines of various national policies and plans as well as complementary to the national efforts for achievement of the PRSP targets and MDGs Implementation of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam will change the regional topography by accretion of a vast tract of land. The Cross Dam extends for about 23 km from Sandwip coast to Char Elahi bank (Companiganj P.S. of Noakhali) via Urir Char. The Cross Dam with its 2 closures will give rise to about 360 sq. km of land within a period of 30 years at an expenditure of about 650 million taka. Population directly benefited by the Project will exceed 180,000 in number. Direct benefits of the project include: lands for housing, agriculture and forestry; direct over-land road communications for islands dwellers; opportunities for employment & economic activities; protection from cyclone and tidal bore etc. Indirect benefits include food security for local people as well as nation; creation of job opportunities; availability of forest products, improvement of environment etc. Negative impacts of the Cross Dam have been found to be insignificant. The only anticipated significant negative impact is increasing the extent of ‘water-logging’ in Noakhali mainland. Water-logging is already there and is aggravating with passage of time due to natural extension of the Noakhali coast. Solution lies in diverting the existing south-ward drainage flows to the perennial channels on the eastern and/or western sides. Project or no project, a comprehensive drainage scheme has to be taken for removal of drainage congestions of Noakhali. Such a program will also eliminate the consequential negative impact of the Cross Dam. The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam has the potentials to go a long way in solving the double jeopardy mentioned above. The Project will change the quality of life of a big population. Time is running out for taking advantages of favorable morphological situation of accelerated accretion of the estuary. At present, it will be possible to close the channels of the Cross Dam in an economic way with minimum risks and adverse environmental impacts. The earlier the project is implemented the better.

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 1 of 12

Table of contents

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 4 2 THE CROSS DAM........................................................................................................... 5 3 ANTICIPATED NEGATIVE IMPACTS......................................................................... 8

I. Water-logging of Noakhali Region ............................................................................ 8 II. Erosion/ Sedimentation Elsewhere ........................................................................ 8 III. Adverse Impacts on Hilsha Fisheries and Migratory Birds .............................. 10 IV. Impacts of Global Temperature Rise ................................................................... 11

4 COMPLIANCE WITH NATIONAL POLICIES AND MASTER PLAN.............. 11 5 FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT............................................................................. 11 6 COSTING ....................................................................................................................... 11 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................... 11

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 2 of 12

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 3 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

THE SANDWIP – URIR CHAR – NOAKHALI CROSS DAM 1 INTRODUCTION Bangladesh with a total area of 144,000 sq. km (94th in the world) has a population of 150 million (7th in the world). Population density of 1045 per sq. km ranks it 11th in the world. Having an area almost equal to Greece, Bangladesh has to sustain 13-14 times its population. The area of available land mass of Bangladesh is 133,910 sq. km. According to a 1993 estimate 73% of Bangladesh lands are arable; 2% lands are under permanent crop cover; meadows and pastures cover 5%; forests as well as woodlands cover 15% and the remaining 5% of lands are used for various other purposes. About 25% forest cover is necessary for balanced environment of a country. Bangladesh is in a precarious environmental condition with its less than 15% forest cover. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistic, 7.2 million ha of lands were under cultivation in 1998 when cultivable area per household comes to 0.6 ha on average. The situation is gradually becoming more and more critical as:- (i) about 100 sq km of agricultural land with infrastructures is eroded by rivers each year pauperizing about 100,000 people (CEGIS 2007); and (ii) about another 1300 sq km (1% of agricultural land) is going out each year from agricultural to non-agricultural uses (like housing, infrastructure etc.). Population increase of 2.1% per year is creating stress on available food and other basic amenities. Population increase and at the same time reduction in cultivable lands are creating double jeopardy. $ 2200 per capita income ranks Bangladesh 138th in the world. Availability of more lands is one of the alternatives to improve the economic lot of people of Bangladesh and its natural environment. The Government of Bangladesh (GoB) has been pursuing a number of projects in the coastal areas of Bangladesh since 1977 to address the problems of coastal floods & tidal surges; erosion and accretion of coastal areas; and to find out suitable remedies to combat the problems in order to reclaim land and develop chars. The aims of the projects include, among others, improving the management of natural resources; mitigation and/or better management of natural disasters & natural resources degradation as well as creation of opportunities for sustainable economic development in the region. Land Reclamation Project (LRP), Meghna Estuary Studies (MES), Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project (CERP), Delta Development Project (DDP); Char Development and Settlement Projects (CDSP), Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (ICZMP), Estuary Development Programme (EDP) etc., are some of the GoB’s coastal initiatives. The landmass of Bangladesh is connected to the Bay of Bengal through a 710 Km long coastline. The natural process of accretion is already going on along the Bangladesh coasts. The rate of natural accretion of land in the region is about 90 ha per year since recent past and the same rate can be expected to continue in the next 25 – 30 years. The natural process of sedimentation is giving rise to new chars in the coasts. Natural processes are slow and the outcomes are often fragile. With external interventions, it is possible to sustain the gains, reclaim and develop vast new landmasses at an accelerated pace. Almost 2.4 billion tons of sediment passes to the deep seas of Indian Ocean each year through the Ganges – Brahmaputra – Meghna rivers system; via the Meghna Estuary. It is neither technically impossible nor difficult to arrest a portion of on-going sediment for reclamation and development of new lands in the Estuary. The reclamation and development activities are also economically not prohibitive. Holding of the sediment passing through the Ganges – Brahmaputra – Meghna rivers system would have, each year, given rise to about 200 sq km of land to present coastal ground level.

Figure 1 : Noakhali coast and part of Meghna Estuary

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 4 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

2 THE CROSS DAM Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam is a highly prospective site for accelerated accretion. The available latest satellite image of the locality is shown in the following figure – 2. The figure – 3 shows the present topographical situation of Sandwip, Urir Char, Noakhali and the 2 intermediate channels. The photograph in figure – 4 shows the accreted Noakhali coast, the Bamni River and the distant Urir Char Island.

Figure 3 : Available latest satellite image of Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali area (source: Google Earth)

Figure 2 Sandwip, Urir Char, Noakhali and the channels at present (source: Mr. M A Kalam, Member – Director, Irrigation (Retd.), BADC)

LRP conducted a pre-feasibility study in 1984 for protection of Sandwip and Hatiya islands from erosion. The study recommended construction of a cross dam between Sandwip and Noakhali via Urir Char for elimination of erosion as well as acceleration of land accretion in the locality. This led to the preparation of ‘Feasibility Study on the Sandwip Cross Dam Development Scheme’ on March 1987. The feasibility study found that the cross dam will not only stop erosion of Sandwip, Hatiya and Noakhali coasts but also was going to help in raising of land. The LRP stated that (Feasibility Report, 1987) the cross dam would have given rise to about 18,000 ha new land in near future with the possibility of reclamation and development of another 18,000 ha of land within 30 years. 1,80,000 people were expected to be settled in the land that was going to be developed. The study did not find any adverse impact of the Project, due to erosion or sedimentation on the project area or elsewhere; particularly on locations like neighboring islands and channels; Chittagong Port etc. Similarly, the study also did not find any adverse impact on forests or fisheries also.

Figure 4: Noakhali Coast, Bamni River and Urir Char

MES developed a Mater Plan (in 1998) for 25 years for the region along with a Development Plan for implementation of priority project for the next 5 – 10 years. Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam is one of the cross dams identified by MES. MES speculated in 1980 that, it was quite possible that the nature itself, without any external intervention, was already building a connection

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 5 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

between Sandwip and Noakhali mainland through Urir Char. The following figure – 5 shows LRP and MES identified cross dam sites;

LRP proposed cross dam sites (source: Project Summary, LRP, 1985)

MES proposed cross dam sites (source: MES Master Plan, 1998)

Figure 5: The proposed cross dam sites of LRP and MES Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) constituted a ‘Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) Task Force’ in 2002 to review all previous studies / reports on interventions in the coasts of Bangladesh and to recommend way of assisting and accelerating the natural process of land accretion. The Task Force Report of 2003 recommended 19 priority cross dams. A 7 year implementation plan for the priority cross dams was also prepared by the Task Force. The priority cross dam sites are shown in figure – 6. The Task Force recommended the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam as one of the priority projects (Sl. Nr. 4). The cross dam extending from Sandwip to Noakhali mainland (Companiganj Upazila of Noakhali) consisted of two closure segments which were; (i) 5 km wide Sandwip – Urir Char Channel and (ii) 4 km wide Urir Char – Noakhali Channel. The total length of the proposed cross dam including the Urir Char Island (in between the channels) was about 23 km. The cumulative width of the channels to be closed was 9 km at that time. (The channels widths have further reduced in the mean time.) The Task Force estimated that the Cross Dam was going to give rise to about 18,000 ha of lands (above + 2.2 mPwD) in 15 years and another 30,000 ha of lands within next 15 years. The Task Force’s 4-years proposed implementation plan for the cross dam included 2 years review of feasibility study and preparation of design drawings and another 2 years of implementation activities.

Figure 6: BWDB Task Force recommended priority cross dam sites

Past performances of cross dams in the region are positive and highly encouraging. Quantitative gains in land as outcome of Meghna Cross Dam Nr. – 1, Meghna Cross Dam Nr. – 2 and Muhuri Cross Dam are 300 sq. km (upto 1985), 600 sq. km (upto 1985) and 100 sq. km respectively. The accelerated accretions are still going on. The following figure – 7 comparatively shows the lands reclaimed due to 2 Meghna cross dams. Ramgati (of the-then Hatiya Island) has become part of Noakhali mainland by reclamation of lands from the bed of a Meghna channel as outcome of the cross dams. The land gains become all the more significant when the cumulative land gain is compared to the land mass of neighboring districts of Feni and Lakshmipur; which are:

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 6 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

928 sq km and 1456 sq km respectively. The area of Noakhali District has already exceeded 3600 sq km as a result of accretions. The figure – 8 shows the Muhuri Closure Dam and a portion of the down-stream reclaimed lands. The channels between Sandwip and Noakhali are gradually being silted up and shrinking in width as a continuous natural process. MES’s expectation of nature’s building up of a connection between Sandwip and Noakhali mainland (without external intervention), is coming out as reality. The major task of Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam Project has now virtually become closing of 2 channels only (with fully developed Urir Char Island in between them). The channels are, Sandwip – Urir Char Channel (about 3 km wide) and Urir Char – Noakhali Channel (about 2 km wide). The Cross Dam at a cost of about 650 million taka will give rise to about 360 sq. km of land within 30 years and will make Noakhali and Sandwip a continuous land mass.

Noakhali, Hatiya Island and Meghna River in 1959

Noakhali, Hatiya and Meghna River at present

Figure 7: Accretion of lands due to cross dams

The Muhuri Closure Dam Accreted land down-stream

Figure 8: Muhuri Closure Dam accreted lands

The gradual reduction in width of the channels of the Cross Dam is evident from the following table.

Name of study/ observation Sandwip – Urir Char channel Urir Char – Noakhali channel LRP study (1985) 8 km 5.3 km

BWDB Task Force study (2003) About 4 km About 5 km EDP observation (2007) About 3 km About 2 km

Considering ground realities and popular demand, the Char Development and Settlement Project (CDSP III) is actively considering taking up of a comprehensive development project for the Urir Char Island. A localized bank protection scheme involving 120 – 130 million taka is being contemplated to stop the on-going erosion of the Char Elahi (Noakhali) bank of the Bamni River. A recent joint meeting of EDP and CDSP reconfirmed that the closure of Urir Char – Noakhali Channel was one of the best solutions to stop the erosion. As closing of the channel at an estimated cost of 250 million taka will reclaim a vast tract of land and as a corollary benefit remove the erosion problem of the whole Bamni Bank forever. Expected Morphological Developments Continuous southward extension of Noakhali coast by natural accretion; as well as, LRP and MES morphological studies support the physical observations of long term trend of shifting of Lower Meghna channels from eastern to western side. The trend signifies that the some of the eastern Meghna channels will die naturally in the long run, even without any external intervention. The closure dams of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam are going to be constructed on meeting places of tides of Sandwip Channel and Hatiya Channel (coming from opposing directions). The dams are going to be constructed on channels, whose considerable portions dry up during winter low tides. The Cross Dam is not going to block any upland discharge nor going to cause any significant change in any major discharge channel of the region.

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 7 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

The Noakhali – Urir Char – Sandwip Cross Dam will give rise to a vast tract of new land in the Meghna Estuary. Figure – 9 schematically shows the locations of the closure dams and expected areas of accretion. LRP investigated the effects of the Cross Dam and subsequent accretion on the water-levels and currents elsewhere in the area with mathematical models. The impacts of the cross dam and subsequent accretion on the water levels under spring-tide conditions were also reviewed in the model. The computations confirmed that the dam and accretion of new land will have only a local effect on the water levels and currents. At some distance from the dam, the changes in tidal volumes appeared to be limited to a few percent only.

Figure 9: Noakhali, Sandwip, coast lines, proposed cross dams and expected areas of accretion

It appears that neither the Cross Dam is going to be affected adversely by tidal current & waves nor it is going to affect the local tidal currents & wave flows adversely. Rather it will help in deposition of silt in the channel bed, banks and surrounding areas. The tidal flow coming from channel’s both ends (Sandwip Channel & Hatiya Channel) are going to be stopped at cross dam site and is going to deposit silt that is being carried during tide. The islands, the chars and the mainland are going to be increased in size by shifting of coastlines and sedimentation. Mangrove afforestations are going to facilitate accelerated accretion of new land, protect fore-shore and might even halt wave and wind erosion. 3 ANTICIPATED NEGATIVE IMPACTS

I. Water-logging of Noakhali Region Water-logging is already a serious problem for Noakhali district. As days go on the coast is gradually extending towards south (even without any intervention) and the hinterland’s water-logging is becoming more and more problematic. Noakhali district is in need of a comprehensive scheme for removal of drainage congestions. This region has the perennial Lower Meghna River on the western side and the perennial Sandwip Channel on the eastern side. Diverting the present southward drainage flows of Noakhali region towards the perennial channels of east and/or west along with regular de-silting of khals and rivers will be the most cost-effective way for removal of the drainage congestions. Concerns were expressed that the construction of the cross dam was going to impede the drainage function of the Noakhali Khal. It is to be mentioned here that, the Noakhali Khal has already been closed with part-flow being diverted through Hatiya River into the Lower Meghna River (in the west) and part flow being diverted through Little Feni River into Sandwip Channel (on the east).

II. Erosion/ Sedimentation Elsewhere LRP made detailed study of erosion/sedimentation on the neighboring areas due to the construction of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam (Land Reclamation Project: Feasibility Study on the Sandwip Cross Dam Development Scheme; Final Report; Euroconsult et. al.; March 1987). The study did not find any major erosion problem due to implementation of the Cross Dam. Morphological evaluation of the study indicated that the cross dam would have no or negligible effects on the erosion of Hatiya, Bhola, other off-shore islands and the coast of the

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 8 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

Noakhali mainland as these processes were and would continue to be governed by the overall morphological processes in the Lower Meghna Estuary. Apart from the increased heights of the tidal flats in the Noakhali Khal, there was no reason to expect adverse effects on the drainage of the Noakhali Khal. The same held for the Feni and Muhuri River basins. Accretions presently going on in these areas were due to the Feni Closure and were not going to be aggravated by the Sandwip Cross Dam. The study did not anticipate any negative effects on navigation at any place (including outer anchorage or accessibility of Chittagong Port) by the cross dam, apart from the direct effect of the closure of the channel west of Sandwip Island. LRP discussions of the Cross Dam’s anticipated impacts on some of the locations (considered by LRP to be sensitive) were; Bhola and Hatiya:

LRP’s evaluation of impacts of Noakhali cross dams on erosion of Bhola and Hatiya were:

“When the cross dams 1 and 2 were constructed across the Lower Meghna River branch, this river was already shifting to the present course into the Shahbazpur Channel. This natural process caused erosion of Bhola and Hatiya islands because the upland discharges enlarged the cross-sections of the new channels. The cross dams 1 and 2 were seen as the cause of this erosion which, however, is not the case, since the change of the upland discharge channels was a natural process, which would also have taken place without these cross dams”. The 2-D model of 1983/84 in connection with the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam showed no significant effects in the Shahbazpur channel, while the current velocities along the north coast of Hatiya appeared to remain virtually the same in all situations. This was confirmed by the 1-D computations of 1987; which indicated only minor changes (mostly reductions) in tidal volumes at these locations. This meant that no adverse effects were to be expected due to the cross dam. On the other hand, the study warned that unless protective measures were taken, the ongoing erosion of the east coast of Bhola, and of the north coast of Hatiya, (probably due to the gradual enlarging of the bend of the tidal channel), was to be expected to continue. Present day (2007) field observations also confirm the LRP apprehensions of continuation of erosion of northern Hatiya and eastern Bhola. Hatiya Channel:

The mathematical model showed that the cross dam and its subsequent accretions will ultimately reduce the tidal volumes in the navigation routes between Sandwip South and Hatiya North by 6 to 8 %. This could result in a depth reduction of about 0.3 m. Generally this was going to cause no problems as sufficient depth was going to be available. But this might cause problems in the area west of Sandwip. On the other hand, due to the absence of strong currents in the cross-channels on both sides of Urir Char (after the dam), the situation might even improve. The channel would be having uninterrupted bank and was likely to develop a continuous profile without hazardous shoals, resulting in having sufficient navigation depths. Erosion of Sandwip western coast was likely to continue, but might be favorably affected by the slightly reduced current velocities. Sandwip Channel:

After the construction of the cross dam, the tidal volumes in the reach between Sandwip Island and the Karnaphuli River were going to increase slightly due to the extra reflection of the tidal wave. In the northern part of the channel the accretion near the dam was going to reduce this effect and ultimately even a slight decrease, compared with the present situation, might have occurred. The mathematical model (1987) showed that the tidal volumes in the reach were going to increase even further due to the land accretion. As a result of the sedimentation near the cross dam, a residual sediment transport in a northerly direction was going to be created in the Sandwip Channel, which would have carried any material scoured from this channel rather north than south. Eventually the channel might be silted up further in a southerly direction, but this was going to be a very slow process, not affected by the Sandwip Cross Dam in any significant way.

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 9 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

Chittagong Port / Chittagong Mainland:

Flow velocities, after accretion near the cross dam, showed a tendency to become higher in the area. Because of this and the expected northern residual sediment transport, no siltation at all was expected at outer anchorage of Chittagong Port. The tidal propagation, flow and sediment regime of the Karnaphuli River mainly depend on the up-river discharge from Kaptai Dam, and the tide levels at the mouth of the river. Hence, no impact on the regime of the River was expected due to the cross dam. Similarly no noticeable change, attributable to the cross dam, was expected for the Chittagong mainland also.

III. Adverse Impacts on Hilsha Fisheries and Migratory Birds Anticipated adverse impacts on Hilsha fishery due to closure of Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam have often been given much importance. Directorate of Planning – 1, BWDB with support of individual consultants made detailed investigations of the adverse impacts of cross dam on Hilsha fisheries and migratory birds, in connection with ‘Hatiya – Nijhum Dwip Cross Dam Project’ in 2007. The major Hilsha spawning grounds identified by the study are shown in the figure – 10. Figure – 11 shows the proposed Hilsha sanctuaries. Figure – 12 gives the Hilsha spawning grounds as shown in a recent handout (Oct. 2007) of Department of Fisheries, Bangladesh. Construction of the Cross Dam is in not going to disturb the existing Hilsha spawning and/or breeding grounds.

Figure 10: Major Hilsha spawning grounds of Bangladesh (Meghna Estuary). (source: Hatiya – Nijhum Dwip Cross Dam Project Feasibility Study, BWDB, 2007)

Figure 11: : Proposed Hilsha sanctuaries. (source: Feasibility Study on Hatiya – Nijhum Dwip Cross Dam Project, BWDB, 2007)

Figure 12: : Hilsha spawning/ breeding grounds of Bangladesh (Meghna Estuary). (source: DoF , GoB Handout of October 2007)

Anticipated disturbances to breeding ground of any bird also could not be established by review of facts and circumstances. Commonly named endangered birds include Indian Skimmer and Spoon-billed Sand Piper. The Indian Skimmers breed in Hariyana of India. The Spoon-billed Sand Pipers migrate down the pacific coast to their main wintering grounds in south and south-east Asia. Accretions of cross dams will give rise to newer and bigger tidal flats and longer sandy coast-lines. Newly developed mudflats and coast-lines are very suitable habitats for crabs. Tidal water formed shallow lagoons in the mudflats and coasts trap small fishes, small aquatic animals etc. Crabs and small animal species are favorite and major attractions for wadding and shore-line birds. The Cross Dam will rather provide newer habitats (additional) for the local and migratory birds.

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 10 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

IV. Impacts of Global Temperature Rise

Global mean sea level is said to have risen by at least 10 cm during the 20th century and this rise is apprehended to continue in the coming days also. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) has predicted sea levels rise of 14 cm, 32 cm and 88 cm in the coming 2030, 2050 and 2100 respectively for Bangladesh. The global temperature rise and related sea level rise was going to have many irreversible negative consequences for Bangladesh. The NAPA model also predicted that rise in sea level will bring more sediment from sea and increase sedimentation. 4 COMPLIANCE WITH NATIONAL POLICIES AND MASTER PLAN The National Water Policy (1999), Coastal Zone Policy (2005), National Environment Policy (1992) and National Water Management Plan (2004) encourage activities aimed at reclamation and development of new land by accelerating the natural accretion processes of estuary. The EPWAPDA (present BWDB) Master Plan (1964) expressed the optimism of reclamation of land from estuary and recommended taking of measures to reclaim land specifically in the Noakhali coast. Outcomes of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam are going to be complementary to the on-going efforts of achieving the targets of Poverty Reduction Strategies and the Millennium Development Goals. 5 FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT The pertinent features of the ‘future without project’ scenario are:

On-going accretion of land in the region at the rate of about 0.9 sq km per year will continue in the upcoming years giving rise to new chars and islands.

South-ward extension of Noakhali coast will continue for a long time in the future due to natural accretion.

Drainage congestions in the Noakhali region will go on increasing because of extension of Noakhali coast (cross dam or no cross dam) if no mitigatory measure is taken.

6 COSTING LRP estimate (of 1986) for implementation of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam was Taka 3,530 million. The BWDB Task Force estimate (in 2003) was Taka 3,500 million. Present day costing of the Cross Dam (for the 2 closure dams along with required minor expenditures on other components) is going to be around Taka 650 million. 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The channels in between Sandwip and Noakhali are gradually silting up naturally. The on-going natural processes are giving rise to new chars in the region. The natural process is slow and the outcomes are often fragile. External interventions can accelerate and sustain reclamation and development of vast new landmass within a short time. Setting-up of cross dams and subsequent accelerated accretion activities are commensurate with the guidelines of various national policies and plans. The BWDB Master Plan strongly advocates for accelerated accretion projects like Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam (specifically projects in Noakhali coastal areas). Reclaiming and development of new lands will help in achieving the targets of national Poverty Reduction Strategies and Millennium Development Goals. Implementation of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam will expedite the on-going sedimentation activities leading to development of new lands exceeding 360 sq km within a time

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 11 of 12

The Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam

span of 30 years. The Cross Dam, costing 650 million taka, will directly benefit more than 180,000 people. Positive benefits of the Cross Dam include, among others, reclaiming new lands for settlement and agriculture for a vast number of populations – providing local & national food security; place for accommodation & work; afforestation; development in communication and last but not the least; protection of life, property & livelihood of thousands from cyclones & tidal bores. Newly developed lands can be means of food, clothing and shelter (– the basic amenities) for lacs of people. New lands for afforestation will create job opportunities and make forest products available. Afforestation will also improve the natural environment. The reclaimed lands will provide source of economic activities for a good number of local coastal people and another big number of outsiders. Employment opportunities thus created will help in reduction of out-ward migration towards city slums. As a whole, the cross dam will improve the qualities of life and livelihood of the people of the region directly and benefit the whole nation indirectly. The only significant consequential negative impact is increase in water-logging of Noakhali region. This is already there and in any case (cross dam or no cross dam) will go on increasing because of on-going south-ward extension of Noakhali coast. A comprehensive drainage congestion removal scheme for Noakhali region will remove the present congestions and also eliminate the anticipated negative impact of the Cross Dam. The earlier the channels of the Sandwip – Urir Char – Noakhali Cross Dam are closed the better. Time is running out for taking the advantages of the favorable morphological situation of accelerated accretion of the estuary and of closing the channels in an economic way with minimum risks and minimum adverse environmental impacts. ---- -----

S. R. Khan, M.Engg.(WRE), P.Eng, Water Resources Engineer/ Coastal Morphologist. Page 12 of 12