The role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in DRR

Julius N. Kabubi

Kenya Meteorological Department

The role of Meteorology/KMD• Weather Monitoring • Weather Forecasting• Climate prediction/ICPAC• Early warnings• Weather and climate Advisories • Food security• Climate Change Detection and attribution• Research and outreach programmes • Disaster Risk Reduction activities  

Sectors Served by KMD • Aeronautical meteorological services;• Oceanography and Marine Meteorological

services• Service to the National Defence and Security

Forces• Early Warning Information for Disaster Risk

Management in various sectors of the economy;• Monitoring air pollution for Climate Change

detection and attribution as well as for Public Health and safety;

• Environmental Protection and Management;• Services to the Agricultural sector for improved

productivity and enhanced Food Security;

Sectors served by KMD cont;• Services to the Energy sector for hydroelectric

power including new and renewable power generation, distribution and management;

• Hydro meteorological services for Water Resources Development and Management;

• Services to Forestry and Wildlife to improve reforestation and determine fire dangers to forests and wildlife;

• Services to Construction / Building Industry and Commerce;

• Services to Recreation and Tourism; and• Data to Research Institutions among others

Other duties and responsibly NMHS1. Establishment and maintenance of a national

meteorological observation network mandatoryfor weather and climate observations

2. Monitoring, detection and prediction of weather and climate phenomena and dissemination of relevant products and early warnings;

3. Monitoring environmental pollution and Greenhouse Gases, including ozone

4. Exchange and transmission of meteorological data nationally, regional and internationally;

5. Carrying out meteorological training and research to improve the quality of meteorological services

6. Archival of long‐term reliable national climatologically records

7. Regional and iternational mandates – WMO, UNFCCC, ICAO ,

Primary weather products

• Now casting (6 hrs ahead)• Weather Forecasts• 24 hrs,4 days,7 days,14 days,1 month & Seasonal• Specialized forecasts;

– Aviation – Marine– Agriculture– Food security – Water resources – Energy – Disaster management – Health and other sectors 

Secondary products • Trends and patterns in wind regimes

• Climatological summaries 

• Intensities of rainfall and durations • Trends in temperature regimes

• Customer tailored weather and climate

• Regional influences by meso‐scale weather systems 

• Seasonality analysis • Design curves (IDF, Flow Duration curves)

Some products –Long‐term distribution of RF

Trends in Temperature at Dagoretti (Nairobi)

y = 0.0186x + 23.244

21

21.5

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

y = 0.0425x + 11.708

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

196019641968197219761980198419881992199620002004

TMIN

(°C

)

YRS

MINIMUM MAXIMUM

TEMPERATURE RANGE AT DAGORETTI

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

TEM

P R

AN

GE

YEARS

OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE  SIGNALS IN KENYA : Increases in temperature

Local maximum temperature trends for Lodwar(Left)  and Dagoretti(Right) 

Observed Climate Change Signals in Kenya:  Decreasing October – November –December (OND) Seasonal Rainfall Trends

Marsabit

Narok

Nyahururu

Finally – Early warning Information for DRR 

Weather warnings and alerts

Weather advisories 

Climate forecasts and predictions

Climate advisories 

Stream flow Modeling

Extreme Weather and severe climate events Droughts Early warning  (La‐nina conditions)Floods Early warning (El Nino conditions )Real time flood forecasting Extreme temperatures (heat waves) Fog and frost 

NB/ Early warning is applied throughout the disaster cycle (Preparedness, response, relief and reconstruction)

Initiatives to improve on EWS for DRR• Awareness campaign with partners (Nile IWRM‐Net, UNISDR, UNOCHA, MOSSP, NDOC and Universities) on Hydro‐climatic disasters

• Real time monitoring of hazards  ‐Western Kenya  flood mitigation project 

• Timely  communication of information 

• Research work for thresh‐holding of hazards

• ICPAC – Climate advisories and forecasts

• RANET Project

• Staff deployment to the provinces 

• Tsunami early warning system