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Weather – June 2009, Vol. 64, No. 6
167
LettersReaders are encouraged to submit letters for possible publication. Letters can be submitted either electronically through the system used for articles, by email attachment to [email protected] or by post, as shown on the Contents page. The Letters Editor reserves the right to edit any letter.
The motion of Arctic ice
I have been fascinated by Arctic explorers such as the Norwegian Nansen, who attempted to reach the North Pole at the beginning of the twentieth century by getting his specially built boat, The Fram, frozen into the ice so that it would eventually take him close to the North Pole. He was unsuccessful and was lucky to get back alive some three years later.
During my long career as a forecaster in the Met Office, I was posted to Northern Maritime HQ at Pitreavie Castle near Dunfermline in Scotland. This was in 1980 at the end of the ‘Cod War’ with Iceland. Forecasts of weather and sea conditions were made every six hours for a large sea area extending to high latitudes into the Arctic Ocean. Little was known at that time in detail of the distribu-tion and everyday movement of the Arctic ice to the east of Greenland and to the north in the Arctic Ocean itself.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, USA has recently published some very interesting and highly relevant information relating to the day-to-day distribution and movement of the ice in and around the Arctic (http://nside.org/seaice/processes/circulation.html). A map of the Arctic Ocean circulation (1998) shows
the main circulation of the Beaufort Gyre centred near the North Pole, but very sig-nificantly it also shows the Transpolar Drift which flows from north of northern Siberia towards northern Greenland, down the east-ern side of Greenland and then splits to the north of Iceland to produce a cold current known as the East Icelandic Current.
In the Transpolar Current, ice has been tracked to move at a speed of over 10cms–1 moving southwards between Spitsbergen and east Greenland. The speed of the cur-rent varies considerably and the movement of the ice may even be reversed at times.
The changeable weather of the British Isles is said to be dominated by the Gulf Stream and consequently the North Atlantic Oscillation, both of which appear to be generally governed by the immense thermal energy of the tropical oceans. Is it not at least possible that sudden changes of synoptic type (e.g. from a dominant westerly flow to an Arctic flow) may be dependent on the effects of this Transpolar Flow? The ice and cold surface waters associated with such a surge would deflect or slow down the westerly flow, and produce a prolonged spell of very cold weather, which would last until the direction of the flow decreased or reversed. In January 1945, one of the coldest spells of the twentieth century occurred, to be suddenly followed by one of the mildest Februaries on record. It is probable that a close study of the distribution and movement of the Arctic ice would give positive results for seasonal or monthly forecasts.
J.K. Rothwell, FRMetSSouthwell, Notts
DOI: 10.1002/wea.440
The public perception of climate change
Simon Keeling’s (2009) concerns about the public perception of climate change may have moved on. For about the past two years, there has been a rising backlash against any article in the press that dares mention climate change. Typical replies from the public argue that the climate is going through one of its natural fluctuations, and nothing seems to shake their belief. This is not just from the green-ink brigade – a surprising number of well-educated and perfectly rational people are voicing their doubts about climate change.
How did this take root? It seems to have started with a concerted effort from vested interests and is now being promoted by self-appointed experts such as ex-Chancellor Nigel Lawson, botanist David Bellamy, newspaper columnist Christopher Booker, Martin Durkin (producer of Channel 4’s The Great Global Warming Swindle) and others. This is a serious challenge that needs a convincing response.
ReferenceKeeling S. 2009. What if? Media, celebrity and climate change. Weather 64: 49–50.
Paul SimonsThe Times
DOI: 10.1002/wea.441
