The Promising Frontiers of U.S.-Japan Cooperation in ... · 1300 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 500 Arlington, VA 22209 703-504-9303 The Promising Frontiers of U.S.-Japan Cooperation in

1300 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 500Arlington, VA 22209

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The Promising Frontiers of U.S.-Japan Cooperation in Defense Trade and Joint Development

Hudson Institute Conference on Science, Technology and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

19 December 2016

Pierre ChaoFounding [email protected]

© 2016 – Renaissance Strategic Advisors

New Paradigm Global Security

Leaders are facing an increasingly complex and diverse set of security issues

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Counter-Terrorism

Counter-Insurgency

Failed States

Humanitarian Crises

Cyber

Regional conflicts

Near PeerCompetitors

NuclearProliferation

Focus of Next 10 Years?“Focus of Last 15 Years”


New Paradigm Global Security

Globally proliferating technologies are changing the military technology landscape and shrinking the technology advantage of the US/Europe

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Moore’s Law

Quantum Computing

Automated Code

Man-Machine Interfaces

Autonomy

Advanced Machine Vision

3D Printing

Advanced MaterialsBio-Materials

Advanced Modeling/Simulation

Augmented Reality

Virtual Reality

Advanced Power Storage

Hypersonics

Hybrid Power

Directed Energy

Large data analytics

Hyperspectral Sensors

Software Defined Devices


US Primary Threats & Capability Needs

This improvement in adversary’s ability to neutralize the US’s historical technology advantages is focusing US investments into certain key areas

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The Accelerating Erosion of US Technological Advantages …

Force Projection impeded by…• Anti-Access / Area Denial• Advanced ASuW, SAM & EW

Requires that the US Invest to Reestablish or Expand Historic Dominance in Three DomainsAir & Space Maritime / NavalElectromagnetic Spectrum / Cyber

Stealth assets threatened via…• Passive/CLO sensors• Multi-static / multi-

phenomenology sensor fusion• Advanced SAM

C2/Connectivity degraded via…• Cyber attacks• EW• GPS-denial

Space resources threatened by…• ASAT weapons• Jamming• Cyber attacks

Long range survivable strike

Persistent, ubiquitous ISR

Protected/Secure SATCOM

Air & missile defense

Offensive, defensive cyber

Electronic Warfare

Information Operations / EMS battle management

Survivable surface assets

Force projection in denied areas


Undersea dominance

Assured C3/BMCollaboration opportunities for Japan

Space Control

Sources: USN, CSBA, RSAdvisors analysis


Potential for Japanese – US Cooperation

The areas of future investment focus by the US match many of the priorities of the Japanese MoD…

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Focus areas:

• Advanced ISR

• Maintain Air Superiority

• Maintain Maritime Supremacy

• Strengthen C3I

• Ballistic Missile Defense

• Space control

• Cyberspace

• Intelligence Capabilities

• Disaster response


“New Three Principles”The “New Three Principles” set out 11 scenarios under which defense exports are acceptable; 4 support collaboration with other countries

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Sources: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan; RSAdvisors analysis

“New Three Principles” – Selected export scenarios

2) Overseas transfers that contribute to Japan’s security, only if the transfers have positive meaning from the viewpoint of Japan’s security, and that:

A. are related to international joint development and production with countries cooperating with Japan in security area including the U.S.

B. contribute to enhancing security and defense cooperation with countries cooperating with Japan in security area including the U.S., and of the following:

a) defense equipment and technology included in the provision of supplies and services in accordance with an agreement concerning reciprocal provision of logistic support, supplies and services (ACSA),

b) provision of military technology as a part of mutual exchange of technology with the U.S.,

c) provision of parts or services related to a licensed product of the U.S. or provision of repair services etc. to the U.S. armed forces,

d) defense equipment and technology related to cooperation concerning rescue, transportation, vigilance, surveillance

Supports cooperation developing new defense technology with other

countries

Recent Example: Seeker for Meteor Replacement

Supports selling products based on licensed US design back into the US

Recent Example PAC II seekers

Supports export of surveillance and intelligence capabilities

Recent Example: Aircraft negotiations with Indonesia and export to India (ShinMaywa US-2)

Supports technology exchanges

Recent Example: Agreements with US, Australia, France, India, and the United Kingdom


Strategic Opportunities

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We believe there are three types of strategic opportunities for the Japanese aerospace/defense industry

Export Exist Capabilities/Platforms/Systems(Exploit Niche Expertise)

Co-Develop Technology andSystems

Act as a Conduit for Leading Japanese Commercial Technologies


Partnering Strategies(1 of 3)

Japan’s capabilities offer a spectrum of approaches to collaborating with partners … Exporting existing capabilities is likely the most straightforward

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Sources: RSAvisors analysis

Offer Existing Capabilities

DescriptionExport of solutions developed and manufactured in Japan that fill a critical need for partner countries

Benefit Development costs minimized for partner, freeing up investment for other priorities

HypotheticalScenario

Kawasaki P1’s sensor and processing capabilities as an alternative to customers developing their own sensor suite for future Maritime Patrol Aircraft

P-1 Maritime Patrol Aircraft

Airbus A319

Domain Air & Space

Maritime / Naval

Electromagnetic Spectrum / Cyber



… Over the long term, collaboration offers many shared benefits both to the partner nations’ industrial bases and security forces

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Development Collaborations

DescriptionCo-develop a technology or system with partner nations and their industry leveraging best of Japan’s defense capabilities

Benefit

Development costs and risk shared between partner nations while the partners bring their industrial strengths and best of breed capabilities to the development effort


Build upon ongoing work on X-2 stealth fighter into a 6th Generation Fighter development program with US and allies

Domain Air & Space

Maritime / Naval


Current Generation Fighters

BAE Systems 6th Gen Fighter Concept



… Leveraging its leading positions in semiconductor design and manufacture, robotics and autonomy may offer the most immediate impact

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Access to Leading Commercial Technology

DescriptionJapanese defense industry partnering with foreign defense partners to transfer commercial technology into defense solutions

BenefitLeverage economies of scale and infrastructure to disrupt established approaches to product development


High performance, low cost, CMOS imaging sensors for automotive along with AI and automation algorithm provide basis for low cost seeker and guidance for swarming munitions

Domain Air & Space

Maritime / Naval


High Performance Imaging Artificial Intelligence

USAF Swarming Munitions Concept


Persistent, ubiquitous ISR

Air & missile defense

Electronic Warfare

Undersea dominance


Demand for Japanese Capability

In the face of a common threat, Japan has capabilities which are aligned with many of its allies most urgent investment requirements

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Sources: RSAdvisors analysis

Selected Investment Priorities

Undersea Sensors

SIGINT

Missile Seekers

P-1 Maritime Patrol Aircraft

Soryu Class Submarine

PAC II Seeker AEGIS Upgrades

Autonomy

High Performance Imaging

Artificial Intelligence

Domain Air & Space

Maritime / Naval



Summary

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• The focus on the U.S. and its allies is shifting towards “higher end” threats

• A new round of technological development and investment is coming

• The U.S. will not have all the funds required (or expertise/ technology) to develop all the capabilities needed

• Japan, given its expertise in certain underlying technologies, niche military capabilities and overlapping MoD interest can be a good partner to the U.S.

• There are three key strategic opportunities for Japanese aerospace/defense companies to exploit:

• Export Exist Capabilities/Platforms/Systems

• Co-Develop Technology and Systems

• Act as a Conduit for Leading Japanese Commercial Technologies


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The Promising Frontiers of U.S.-Japan Cooperation in ... · 1300 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 500 Arlington, VA 22209 703-504-9303 The Promising Frontiers of U.S.-Japan Cooperation in