Who 3D Prints What in 2033?THE PRIVATE SPACE INDUSTRY 2050 – 2100

INTRODUCTION

In February of 2013, Wikistrat ran a fourteen-day simulation in which over 75 analysts from around the world collaboratively explored the nature of the private space industry (PSI) during the years 2050–2100. Will its activities be similar to those of today (primarily selling goods and services to governments and quasi-government organizations), or will multiple entrepreneurs be operating new businesses in space? Will operations beyond Earth’s orbit be like they are today (confined to expeditions financed by a decreasing scientific budget), or will profitable firms operate on the moon and beyond?

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time, interactive online platform.

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CRITICAL ISSUES

Two critical issues emerged during the simulation: the cost of space lift and the level of international tension.

Space Lift Cost

The growth of space activity has been so far been limited by the high cost of lifting objects into orbit. Current costs to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are on the order of $5,000/kg, while costs to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) are at least twice that. It is hoped that assists to first-stage lift from aircraft launch or rail guns (combined with reusable rockets) could lower costs to the order of $1,000/kg. Conservative estimates are that launch costs are not likely to fall much further, noting both that the cost reduction promised by the reusability of the Space Shuttle was not achieved, and also that a century after the introduction of the automobile its price are not declining significantly. Optimists, however, expect that new technologies will radically reduce the costs of lift.

International Tensions The first investments in space were motivated by international tensions and geopolitical conflicts. For example: Long-range rockets were developed as a weapon during World War II. The Cold War spurred on large investment in rocketry research for the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles; these same rockets were later repurposed for satellite launches. Large investments were also made in the development of reconnaissance satellites for intelligence and combat support; indeed, many commercial imaging satellite designs benefit from the investments made in regards to their intelligence counterparts. To some extent, military communications satellites provided a model for civil and commercial communications satellites. The comparatively less tense post–Cold War environment has led to a reduction in military investments in space systems, defined in this report as systems with significant off-Earth components. Meanwhile, investments in scientific space missions (at least by the United States) have seen a significant reduction—partially because expensive missions such as Apollo had behind them Cold War motivations, and partially because NASA’s own budget has shrunk due to austerity measures. Not only is it difficult to predict when international tensions will wax and wane, it is almost as hard to predict accurately the effect of said tensions on the space industry. Will international harmony undermine or spur on military investment in space technology?

The Space Elevator

The concept of a space elevator involves a long, strong cable tethered to the Earth at one end and to a large mass beyond GEO at the other. If the space elevator’s center of gravity is at GEO, it will remain vertical; as an object climbs the elevator it will gain increasing lateral velocity from the elevator’s rotation with the earth until the object reaches orbital velocity.

Proponents argue that once the space elevator is built, the cost to bring objects to GEO will be miniscule; skeptics argue that building the elevator will require fabricating a cable perhaps 50,000 km long, comprised of a yet-undiscovered material with an unprecedented strength-to-mass ratio—and that the low lift cost presumes an enormous number of launches to amortize the capital cost of elevator.

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FOUR MASTER NARRATIVES

Four Master Narratives result from the four combinations of “expensive vs. cheap lift” and “international tensions vs. cooperation.” What follows are those scenarios, as well as text boxes containing summaries of some of the individual

scenarios that fit within each Master Narrative.

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MN I: ANOTHER COLD WARExpensive Lift and International Tension

In this Narrative, improvements in rocket engines and fuels, launch assists and greater reusability of launch vehicles have all led to modest cost reductions, but lift remains expensive. The automation of payload protection has led to similar modest cost reductions. International tensions among the major powers have increased because of competition for markets and natural resources—but these powers sponsor proxy wars rather than engage in overt conflict. Consequently, firms in North America and Europe primarily design, build and operate space systems for governments (Comparable Russian and Chinese entities, while nominally private firms, are so strongly connected to their nations’ administrations that they are virtually government bureaus). This is their principal business, although there is a market for sustaining private communications satellites. Among private individuals, only the very wealthy venture into space.

Communications, intelligence and combat management/support are the principal government applications in space. Government systems operate at GEO and lower altitudes. Moon expeditions are mounted for prestige value but not sustained; the moon is not a useful base for projecting power against Earth. Some scientific experiments go into interplanetary space, but as space budgeting is more military-centric, they are few in number.

Space X

Reusable space launch systems have always been the “Holy Grail” of the rocket industry. In 2045, SpaceX accomplishes the first launch of a rocket that had been flown less than 72 hours before. This technology, however, is not developed to the high standards of reliability required by the space industry. It is not until 2055 that SpaceX successfully launches SES-26 and SES-27 using the same rocket 72 hours apart.

Xingjidazhan Industries

After a decade-long state of tension between the United States—eager to maintain its spheres of influence in the world—and China, Guangdong-based Xingjidazhan Industries is one of the main companies contracted by Beijing in the 2050s to build combat systems in space, seen as instrumental for military supremacy. Weapons include mines to destroy satellites and various beam weapons to temporarily deny their use or degrade them permanently.

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MN II: EXOATMOSPHERIC WAR ZONECheap Lift and International Tension

International tensions have led to proxy wars that have extended into space, but previously unanticipated scientific discoveries, such as a material that made the space elevator achievable, have led to drastic reductions in the cost of lift and interplanetary travel. The new discoveries make possible large volume production of launch systems, spacecraft and payloads, causing a substantial decline in their unit cost. New techniques for affordably maintaining human life off Earth, such as extracting water from comets, moons and planets, have made the maintaining of off-Earth colonies feasible. States view their space systems as essential to their security. The major powers buy a large variety of space systems from their contractors—as many as their budgets allow. In ad-dition to the traditional military functions of communications, intelligence and combat support, additional functions—such as ballistic missile interception—are attempted from space. Meanwhile, regional powers can afford many of these space systems and buy their own to protect their sovereignty, thereby encouraging the creation of local industries. Major powers may maintain moon settlements for reasons of prestige and to maintain parity with each other. Space has become crowded and hostile. Nations build systems to degrade those of their rivals, who respond by in-creasing the self-protection of their own systems. Although not every nation can afford to participate in this arms race, there is a risk that a minor power or even a non-state actor may take some kind of precipitous action. Terrorists and extortionists can, after all, acquire the means to threaten important space systems. And the destruction of satellites produces debris that threatens all nations’ systems. Moderately wealthy private individuals can afford spaceflight, but the risk of being a tourist in a war zone discourages these adventures. Although the cost of entry into space by private firms has been greatly reduced, the risky environ-ment discourages private investment. As a result, science budgets are constrained, but cheaper spaceflight allows some interplanetary missions, particularly when they bring prestige to a state actor.

Clean Up Space

Skirmishes in space have left debris remains in critical orbits that must be removed in a timely manner. CleanUpSpace (CUS) attaches conducting tethers to debris, thereby deorbiting them by Lorenz force. Armistices involve payment for cleanup; otherwise firms whose satellites are threatened by debris pay to protect their orbits.

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MN III: STRUGGLING FOR PROFITExpensive Lift and International Cooperation

In this Narrative, improvements in rocket engines and fuels, launch assists and greater reusability of launch vehicles have all led only to modest reductions in the cost of lift. Furthermore, the major powers have become so inextricably bound to each other in an economic sense that they conclude that they can gain nothing from another Cold War (one including proxy wars in space). They instead begin to engage in international cooperation, including cooperation in a demilitarized space.

The consequences for the segment of the private space industry that supplies systems and services to military and intelligence organizations are immense. Reductions in military orders result in the consolidation of space suppliers within each major power, and the new companies now have to bid against their international rivals for other contracts. Company cost structures that were tolerated by military customers put them at a disadvantage in bidding against nimble startups that have a more entrepreneurial culture. The smaller cash flow inhibits these companies’ investment in new technologies; reduced numbers of military systems in turn reduces booster purchases and thereby raises unit costs.

Reductions in military spending permit some restoration of spending on scientific missions and civil Earth resources missions; however, a significant chunk of these newly-available funds go to entitlement costs for a growing senior population. And as with the end of the Cold War, the motivation for prestige missions is gone. Yet, as international cooperation increases, expensive scientific missions (such as moon bases, micro-gravity space laboratories and interplanetary probes) are funded by international agencies and governments—although any moon base may simply be automated to avoid the high cost of maintaining humans for long periods on the moon. Private firms do business by supplying the scientific and Earth resources systems, and via exploitation of the data from the latter in markets such as mining, agriculture and forestry. Because of the high costs, few private firms operate in space for their own business purposes—aside from the maintaining of communications satellites. Firms that launch satellites for governments and international agencies are able to offer space adventures to the very wealthy, but treat this as a sideline.

NASA Corp

A cash-strapped United States has sold assets, including those of NASA, to private investors. The new NASA Corp offers space transportation services, but finds NASA’s vehicles expensive to operate and maintain, and gradually replaces them. However, NASA’s astronaut training facilities offer some advantage in preparing the extremely wealthy for space adventures.

Disney Offers Virtual Space Travel

Because actual space travel is too expensive for nearly everybody, Disney offers virtual space adventures. It contracts with firms actually operating in space to place sensors on their vehicles and relay sights and sounds to Earth. Patrons experience everything except zero gravity, so no physical prerequisites are imposed on them.

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MN IV: TRYING TO MONETIZE THE SOLAR SYSTEMCheap Lift and International Cooperation

New scientific discoveries, such as materials for space elevators and methods for sustaining life off-Earth, have led to a radical decrease in the price of space lift and interplanetary travel. This leads to large-volume production of spacecraft and payloads; in turn, this causes a substantial decline in their unit cost. The major powers have settled their differences, imposed order on the rest of the world, and have begun to cooperate in space endeavors.

Public funds once devoted to military spending now become available to fund ambitious infrastructure projects and space missions. These missions include Earth-resources satellites that promote economic development by supporting mineral prospecting, fisheries, and agriculture, as well as scientific and exploration missions. These activities provide new work for the firms that previously produced space systems for the military.

Meanwhile, the availability of cheap space lift and low-cost space systems encourages entrepreneurs who seek their fortune in space. Some startups offer adventures to people on Earth. Some offer orbital laboratories to firms performing micro-gravity research and production. Others seek to extract resources from the rest of the solar system, either for return to Earth or to support other space activities. The low cost of transportation makes support of off-Earth habitation feasible, as does the maturation of technologies that extract the means of support from comets as well as the planets themselves.

Not only do these entrepreneurial firms constitute an ever-larger portion of the PSI, but they also generate a market for other private firms to supply their systems and launch services, as well as ancillary health, legal and insurance services. Not all of the new space business models prove to be viable, but the decline of military budgets frees up the capital to birth these new enterprises—some of which survive. As with the dot-com boom at the beginning of the century, many of the startups fail; however, the survivors not only monetize the solar system—they also change the lives of people.

Star Defense Industries

This firm is hired by the United Nations to protect Earth against meteorites. It enhances NASA’s Near Earth Asteroid Tracking program to detect incomers sufficiently early so that attaching a thruster to them deflects their orbits away from the Earth.

M-Grav Labs

The Micro-Gravity Research Institute Laboratory (M-Grav Labs) is a specially created space station designed to rent space to companies and governments that wish to perform research and experiments in micro-gravity or biosecure environments.

Solar Waste Disposal

Using the space elevator and solar sails, this firm sends extremely hazardous waste into the sun. A sister company uses these facilities to offer burial either in the sun or a graveyard orbit, depending on client religious preferences.

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STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS

• The amount of future activity in space will be principally determined by the cost of lift. Unless costs decline drastically, the amount of activity in 2050 may be similar to the amount in 2015. During the first fifty years of commercial aviation, the cost of air travel declined and speed increased; during recent decades, speeds declined (supersonic transport failed as a business model) and inflation-adjusted prices saw stagnation. Future efficiencies, such as carbon-fiber structures, promise only modest cost gains. It is possible that space lift is facing an analogous maturation, with reusable rockets and first-stage assists affording only modest cost reductions.

• The natureoffutureactivityinspaceandthenatureofthefirmsthatsupportitwillbeprincipallydetermined by international relations. International tension tilts the balance to military systems and to suppliers that are adept at securing military contracts. The complexity of military systems favors experienced large firms despite the high costs, making the entry of new firms difficult. The high cost of payloads generally engenders a reluctance to use innovative launch systems until their reliability has been proven. International harmony tilts the balance to civil, scientific and commercial enterprises. Costs become an increasingly important factor to these enterprises, thereby favoring more agile suppliers.

• While cheap lift and international harmony may engender a burst of space activity, not all new entrants will succeed. Available capital and easier space access will not ensure successful new business models. Commercial air travel developed because it provided a better way to fill an existing need: the transportation of goods and people. Some current space applications—communications, navigation and observation—are viable because they prove a better way of serving the existing needs of earthbound people. However, those people do not currently have a widespread need to leave the Earth and the market for such travel may be limited to wealthy adventurers. The firms that provide space travel may prosper less than the firms that build the vehicles—a situation comparable to merchants during the California gold rush becoming rich while supplying prospectors, despite few prospectors getting rich.

• Occupation of the moon and planets is also contingent on the maturation of technologies for life support there. Water and oxygen are essential for human life. While there seems to be ice on Mars, comets and possibly elsewhere in the solar system, the technology for extracting it has not yet matured. Photosynthesis further from the Sun than Earth may or may not produce sufficient oxygen to support human life. Similarly, while self-replicating robots have been suggested for the construction of planetary bases, the technology by which the robots are able to extract raw materials from those planets has not been established.

• Even if occupation is feasible, the economic viability of colonization has not been established. It is unlikely colonists will find items precious enough to return to Earth and thereby support the colony. The colonists that came to what is now the United States in search of gold did not find it, and the investors who sent them did not profit. While it is imaginable that an off-Earth colony becomes self-supporting, it is far from certain that the investment in establishing the colony will be recouped.

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ATTRIBUTIONS

[COVER] This work “Cover Photo” is a derivative of ”Nasa_space_elev.” by Pat Rawlings / “Milstar Satellite Communications System” by U.S. Air ForceLicense/ “As08-16-2593” by U.S. govt.License/ “Ap4-s67-50531” NASA is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license. “Cover Photo” is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license by Natalie Boyajian.

[PAGE 2] ”Nasa_space_elev.” by Pat Rawlings is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 4] “Rocket Engine” by mikyxa13 purchased for commercial use/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 4] LH_95 NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble CollaborationThe ‘public domain decication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 4] “Flag of the People’s Republic of China” Zeng Liansong is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license / Desaturated from original

[PAGE 5] “Debris-GEO1280” NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, photo gallery is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 6] “X43a2_nasa_scramjetauthor” NASA is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 6] “VR-Helm Interiot” Interiot is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 7] “Asteroid andrewsrj” photo on flickr is licensed under CC BY/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 7] “Working inside Spacelab on STS-9” ESA/NASA - SOHO/LASCO is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license/ Desaturated from original

[PAGE 7] “File:The_Sun_by_the_Atmospheric_Imaging_Assembly_of_NASA%27s_Solar_Dynamics_Observatory_-_20100819” NASA/SDO (AIA) is licensed under The ‘public domain dedication’ and Creative Commons CC0 license/ Desaturated from original

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June 2013

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WHO

3D PRINTS WHAT IN 2033?