The National Integrated Drought Information System: Colorado Basin

NIDIS Project Implementation Team

Roger S. Pulwarty (NOAA)Jim Verdin (USGS) Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center)

2-Wk Soil Moisture

Constructed Analogue Soil Model

Medium-Range Fcst

Palmer 4-moProbabilities

CPC Long-LeadPrecip. Outlook

Principal Drought Outlook InputsPrincipal Drought Outlook Inputs

Short-Range Fcst

3

Climatic-Drought Contributors:Climatic-Drought Contributors:A continuum A continuum

Droughts span a large range of temporal and spatial scalesDroughts span a large range of temporal and spatial scales

Droughts are driven by a number of complex variables Droughts are driven by a number of complex variables

Public and private stakeholders (incl. other agencies): Present products in need of improved coordination and Public and private stakeholders (incl. other agencies): Present products in need of improved coordination and in need regional and local detail for early warning in need regional and local detail for early warning

30DAYS

1SEASON

Heat Waves

Floods

Storm Track Variations

Madden-Julian Oscillation

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

3YEARS

10YEARS

Decadal Variability

Solar Variability

Deep Ocean Circulation

Greenhouse Gases

30YEARS

100YEARS

SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL

DECADE-TO-CENTURY

— SCALES OF DROUGHT —

NIDIS VISION and GOALSNIDIS VISION and GOALS

“ “A dynamic and accessible drought information system A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006Public Law 109-430 (2006))

(Drought Policy Commission Report (2000), Western Governors Report (Drought Policy Commission Report (2000), Western Governors Report (04) , NIDIS Implementation Plan (07))(04) , NIDIS Implementation Plan (07))

NIDIS VISION and GOALSNIDIS VISION and GOALSImplementation:Implementation:

• Coordinate national drought monitoring and Coordinate national drought monitoring and forecasting system forecasting system

• Creating a drought early warning information system Creating a drought early warning information system (including assessment of potential impacts and (including assessment of potential impacts and triggering criteria)triggering criteria)

• Providing an interactive drought information delivery Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)

• Designing mechanisms for improving information to Designing mechanisms for improving information to support preparedness and planningsupport preparedness and planning

• Monitoring and forecastingMonitoring and forecasting

• Risk assessment: Indicators and triggersRisk assessment: Indicators and triggers

• Communication and Preparedness Communication and Preparedness

• Drought PortalDrought Portal

Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems

SoutheastSoutheast

Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning

Coordinated reservoir Coordinated reservoir operations: operations:

Inter- and Intra-basin transfersInter- and Intra-basin transfers

Ecosystem health/servicesEcosystem health/services

SoutheastSoutheast

KremmlingLake Powell

Lake Mead

Key issuesKey issues

• What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, industry, state, county)?industry, state, county)?

• How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans? early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans?

E.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, E.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, Power needs etc?Power needs etc?

• Proposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on Proposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on drought, climate and water resourcesdrought, climate and water resources

• Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan (June 07)Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan (June 07)

• U.S. Drought Portal rollout (October 07) U.S. Drought Portal rollout (October 07)

• Identify and review NOAA (and other) cross-line activities in support of NIDISIdentify and review NOAA (and other) cross-line activities in support of NIDIS

• (NIDIS Executive Council)(NIDIS Executive Council)

• Satellite-based drought monitoring (Feb08), Climate projections over the Colorado Basin (Fall 07)Satellite-based drought monitoring (Feb08), Climate projections over the Colorado Basin (Fall 07)

• Designing drought early warning systems for the Southeast (ACF-ACF) April 08Designing drought early warning systems for the Southeast (ACF-ACF) April 08

• Planning meeting: Upper Colorado Basin (down to Lake Mead)Planning meeting: Upper Colorado Basin (down to Lake Mead)

• National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems (June 2008 Kansas City)National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems (June 2008 Kansas City)

• Upper Colorado Basin Workshop 1-2 October, 2008Upper Colorado Basin Workshop 1-2 October, 2008

Where are we?Where are we?

• Year 1Year 1

• What exists. Gap analysis, coordination of existing informationWhat exists. Gap analysis, coordination of existing information

• Key players-Existing planning processesKey players-Existing planning processes

• What partnerships and actions are needed (to improve What partnerships and actions are needed (to improve infoinformrmation development and flow?ation development and flow?

• Year 2. Implementation of a Drought Early Warning System (across Year 2. Implementation of a Drought Early Warning System (across timescales from a season multi-year, longer term trends): timescales from a season multi-year, longer term trends):

• Improving coordination, Improving coordination, feedback into “Colorado Basin” feedback into “Colorado Basin” Drought Portal: Drought Portal:

Implementing the NIDIS: PilotsImplementing the NIDIS: Pilots

ApplicationsResearch

PredictionMonitoring

Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g. within watersheds and states)

Engaging research, management and planning communities:Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for

decision making

Risk Assessments

PredictionMonitoring

ImpactMitigation

ProactivePlanning

ImprovedAdaptation?

Engaging research, management and planning communities:

Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making

Engaging the preparedness communities

Integrating Tools:e.g. Drought Portal

Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)

Identifying and diffusing innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness

NIDIS Process Model:NIDIS Process Model:Implementing NIDIS PilotsImplementing NIDIS Pilots

Western RCC Desert Research

Institute

RISA – Pacific Northwest

RISA – California

RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS

High Plains RCC University of Nebraska

Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey

InternationalResearch Institute

Northeast RCC Cornell University

Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division

National ClimaticData Center

Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural

Resources

RISA – Florida

Southern RCC Louisiana State

University

National CenterRegional Center

RISA’s

States ParticipatingIn Two Regions

RISA – Western Water

Climate Diagnostic Center

Pacific ENSOApplications

Center

RISA – NewHampshire

NWS RHQ

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

Thanks!Thanks!Thanks!Thanks!

Slide 18Slide 18

U.S. Drought PortalHome Page www.drought.gov

Key Clearinghouse Functions:Credible, Accessible, Timely Drought Information Credible, Accessible, Timely Drought Information

to answerWhere are drought conditions now?

Does this event look like other events?How is the drought affecting me?

Will the drought continue?Where can I go for help?

NOAA

Western Governors Association

USGS

Dept. of Interior (BoR)

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES)

NASA

Indigenous Waters Network

Regional Climate Centers

National Drought Mitigation Center

Association of State Climatologists

Cornell University

New Mexico State University

Rutgers University

South Dakota State University

University of Oklahoma

University of South Carolina

University of Washington

The Weather Channel

NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date):

www.drought.gov

New:

Duke Power

U. Georgia

Others?