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The Mississippi PEP 2013 Conservative State of the State Report Based on a survey of over 200 Conservative Mississippians from across the state. MississippiPEP.com

The Mississippi PEP 2013 Conservative State of the State Report

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Based on a survey of over 200 Conservative Mississippians from across the state.

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Page 1: The Mississippi PEP 2013 Conservative State of the State Report

The

MississippiPEP

2013Conservative State of the State Report

Based on a survey of over 200 Conservative Mississippians from

across the state.

MississippiPEP.com

Page 2: The Mississippi PEP 2013 Conservative State of the State Report

A Message from Mississippi PEP’s Managing Editor

Before getting into further explanation about this report, I want to thank everyone who participated. I must admit, I was surprised at the response. For a survey of this size, in our first attempt, I had hoped to make it to 100 survey participants. We received 205 completed surveys!

The survey spanned just two weeks from December 26, 2012 thru January 8, 2013. During that time we received many messages from participants determined to complete it, and surprised at it’s level of detail. Many said they were forced to stop and learn more about aspects of issues they had never before considered.

Let’s be clear, what you are holding is not the results of scientific polling. In no way did we attempt to gather or equalize the number of opinions based on race, gender, or any other of the myriad of demographic ways that pollsters break down groups.

This is a survey, meaning each of the 205 individuals had to complete it for it to count. Each persons who completed it agreed to sit down and take 30 minutes to an hour to honestly answer what they thought about issues Mississippi faces in 2013.

We used our growing email list, direct messaging, social media, and direct text to be sure we had the participation of conservatives. Then we used several ways to make sure the results we received were from conservative Mississippians, including requiring county and zip code match up, and cross checking that with other personal qualifying answers. In the end, only 10 responses were rejected because this data didn’t match up.

(Continued Page 3)

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(Continued from Page 2)

As you will see in the first section beginning on page 5, our participants come from every region of Mississippi. While this is not a partisan survey, most of our participants identify as Republicans. That said, we received responses--some surprising--from Democrats, Libertarians, and people unaffiliated with a political party.

We weren’t attempting a “push poll”. A participant who thought a particular issue was “not important” was allowed to move on to spend time on the issues they thought were. Likewise, those who thought an issue was “very important” were asked to answer more detailed questions before moving ahead.

This is the result of a strictly online effort. No one was called and questioned by phone. Participants weren’t cajoled, or bribed with discounts or freebees. They participated of their own volition. No one was required to give their name, phone number or email address. We believe the result is a report that represents the honest opinion of conservative Mississippians.

Thanks again for being a part of this. We hope it becomes an annual event and our participant numbers continue to grow.

In the meantime, we look forward to your continued engagement at MississippiPEP.com.

Kindest Regards,

B. Keith PlunkettManaging Editor, Mississippi PEP

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Table of Contents

Section I. Understanding Who Participated.!! ! ! Page 5This section gives a breakdown of the type of people who participated. It breaks down political affiliations, level of activity in the community, religious affiliations, and more.! ! ! ! ! !

Section II. Issues ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Page 9This section counts up, from least important to most, the top ten issues as decided by survey participant rankings.

Section III. Job Approval Ratings! ! ! ! ! Page 44This section lists the approval ratings of the top office holders and elected bodies in the state.

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Section I. Understanding Who Participated.

It was important to make a few determinations about the ideals and affiliations of our survey participants so that we could best determine who was taking the survey. We didn’t attempt to equalize results based on region. As a result, some geographic areas have less representation than others. This survey is intended to be solely about current conservative thought in the state, not about regional representation. Consumers of the report can reach their own conclusions about how these varying regional representations may affect results.

Requests for participation were sent to known conservatives and to regular readers and active commenters on Mississippi PEP. The following breakdown of ideals and affiliations gives us a very good indication of who participated.

Where They are FromParticipants in the Conservative State of the State Survey were from every region of the state. A large number of participants were from Central Mississippi. There was also a large number of participants from the Gulf Coast and the Pine Belt.

Question: In which region of Mississippi do you live?

Participation came from a total of 56 counties across the state, with the top counties being Madison, Rankin, Jackson, Hinds, and a tie for fifth most responses from Harrison and Jones. Multiple responses also came from 25 other counties across the state. The remaining 25 counties had 2 or less responses each.

Percent of Participation Per Region

DeltaNorth Mississippi (West)

Golden TriangleCentral Mississippi

East MississippiPine Belt

Southwest MississippiGulf Coast

North Mississippi (Hill Country)0 10 20 30 40

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Elected Officials and General Public ParticipantsThe following graphic shows the number of survey participants who are currently elected officials and those who are not.

Question: Are you currently an elected official?

_____________________________________________________________________

Elected officialsOf the 13% who indicated they are currently elected officials, all are Republican.

Constituent’s Political ViewsCurrent elected officials in our survey said their constituent’s political views are*:All Around Very Conservative ! ! (80%)All Around Somewhat Conservative ! (10%)Socially Conservative! ! ! (20%)Fiscally Conservative! ! ! (30%)

*Participants could select more than one, so numbers add up to more than 100%

Yes No

87%

13%

Level of office held: Elected Participants.

County Elected Official

Regional Elected Official

State Rep. or Senator

0 5 10 15 20

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General Public ParticipantsOf the 87% who indicated they are not currently an elected official, 4% indicated they had once held an elected position.

General Public Participant’s Partisan AffiliationOf the 87% who indicated they are not currently an elected official, the following chart breaks down participants level of partisan affiliation.

General Public Participant’s Political ViewsOf the 87% who indicated they are not currently and elected official, the following table shows the description of political views. Participants were allowed to select more than one, so percentages add up to more than 100%.

Unaffiliated Democrat Liberatarian Republican

69%6%6%

19%

Political Views

All Around Very ConservativeAll Around Somewhat Conservative

Socially ConservativeFiscally Conservative

Constitutional ConservativeSocially Liberal, but Fiscally Conservative

Moderately Conservative0 10 20 30 40

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Mississippi Conservative Associations/GroupsThe following graphic shows the percentage of participants who indicated they are current or prior members of an Executive Committee, board or an officer for the listed Conservative Associations and Groups.

Community InvolvementThe following graphic shows survey participants self described level of community involvement.

Question: How would you describe your level of involvement in the local community?

Current or prior executive member, board member or officer of:

State GOPCounty GOP

Republican WomenTEA Party

912 MovementConservative Coalition/Concerned Citizens

Young RepublicansCollege Republicans

0 5 10 15 20

Very Moderately Somewhat Not Very Keep to myself

3%13%

20%

30%

34%

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Section II. Issues

The list of issues found in this section are counted down from least important to most important as determined by our Conservative State of the State Participants who thought those issues were “very important”.

However, we wanted to go deeper than a simple up or down vote to see if we could find further connections. So we decided to see how those issues looked in a secondary listing. To do that we allowed for a 3-category ranking of issues based on the level of importance. We added two of those categories together: “somewhat important” and “very important” to determine a secondary list. Or, to look at it a different way, we separated out only the “not important” votes per issue. This gave us a few more insights.

Setting up the survey in a way that asked for a vote in one of three categories of importance per issue allowed participants to point out where there may be gray areas. Furthermore, each person who checked off an issue as “very important” was asked to rate more details specific to that issue. Those detail areas allowed for a 5-category ranking of importance, making it possible to further explore the levels of concern for each. In this way we believe we have determined levels of opinion that are more in depth than would be possible by simply asking for a vote “for” or “against” an issue.

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#10. State Bonds and Infrastructure Needs (Rises to #9 in the secondary listing)! How important is it that Mississippi address infrastructure improvements through a bond package in 2013?

State Bonds and Infrastructure Improvements, despite being the least issue described as “very important” (29%), has the distinction of being the lead issue when it comes to those who believe it is “somewhat important” (57%). This may portend some worry on the part of conservatives following 2012 when the legislature couldn’t agree on a bond package, and the messiness of those negotiations.

Fiscal conservatives in general celebrated the first time in decades that the state did not borrow money by issuing a bond package. But warnings about aging college buildings, bridge and road infrastructure that need attention, and the lack of an organizational plan as to how Mississippi will tackle infrastructure needs in the future continues to worry some.

Not important Somewhat important Very important

29%

57%

14%

Figure 10-1

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Furthermore, the way the bond package deal fell apart, and the way the Senate and House leadership seemed to talk past one another--when they talked at all--left a sour taste. Much of the negotiation seemed more about posturing than substance, a prospect that seems likely again in 2013. The recent passage of a $31 million package by the House was met with reservation from the Senate Chair Joey Fillingane.

Hinds County GOP Chairman Pete Perry wrote in a comment on MississippiPEP.com that the bond negotiation process has always been about who could be the “Alpha Dog in the room”.

In 2012, the first year of negotiation between a new Lt. Governor, a new Speaker of the House, and new committee chairmen, the “Alpha Dog Dance” got a bit awkward behind closed doors, and a skeptical public could only wait to hear the difference of opinion from those involved as to what really happened. Maybe making this process more transparent is an idea that’s time has come. Transparency could likely go a long way towards helping the 57% in our survey become a little more sure of what they would like to see from the bond negotiation process in the future.

The 29% who think infrastructure improvements through a bond package in 2013 is “very important” are virtually unanimous in their belief that the state should only issue as much debt as has been paid off, a predictable result from conservatives.

A Conservative Borrowing Plan

Should only issue as much debt each year as is paid off.Should consider sometimes necessary to extend further in debt to correct problems.

99%

1%

Figure 10-2

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The following chart indicates the thoughts of survey participants on the importance of specific considerations needed to develop a conservative borrowing plan and better manage future indebtedness and state assets.

Overall Debt and Planning (Planning-Figure 10-3)--73% believe that before another bond package is put together it is “very important” that there be a plan formulated for future indebtedness that Mississippians can use to hold elected officials responsible for spending decisions. 95% believed it is of “better than average importance”.

Structural Analysis and Repair (Analysis-Figure 10-3)--While only 45% find it “very important” that honest assessments of Mississippi’s infrastructure assets be completed, 82% think that such a needs assessment is an idea of “better than average importance”. Conservatives are somewhat split on the level of importance of this repair assessment, but a large majority believe that before throwing money at more state owned properties an analysis of need is a good idea.

Government Asset Efficiency (Efficiency-Figure 10-3)--Government Asset Efficiency as a category was ranked as “better than average importance” by 59% of survey participants who thought state bonds should be looked at in 2013. But, only 9% ranked it as a “very important” part of any potential borrowing plan.

Long Term Costs to Taxpayers (Long Term Costs-Figure 10-3)--As might be expected of a conservative group, the long term cost to taxpayers is believed to be an important part of any borrowing plan. 76% believe it to be of “better than average importance”. However, the group of was split on the level of importance. 38% said “somewhat important” and 38% said “very important”.

Somewhat important Very important

0

25

50

75

100

Planning Analysis Efficiency Long Term Costs

Figure 10-3: State Bond and Infrastructure Improvement Borrowing Plan Specifics

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#9. Abortion Regulation (Falls to #10 in the secondary listing)! How important is it that Mississippi pass more laws to regulate abortion in the state?

One of the more divided issues among State of the State Survey participants is abortion regulation. The issue had the highest level of participants who believe it is “not important” (20%).

Perhaps conservatives are fatigued from two recent abortion regulation battles; the 2011 ballot initiative, and the 2012 legal fight to implement an admitting privileges law. Perhaps the issue is one that is so emotionally divisive and fraught with complication that conservatives are coming to the conclusion that it is no longer a “good hill to die on.”

Not important Somewhat important Very important

48%

32%

20%

Figure 9-1

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Participants in the survey who believe the issue of regulating abortion is “very important” are also split on their level of passion and their willingness to allow abortion in certain circumstances (see Figure 9-2 below). While 22% of the survey participants that deem the issue “very important” believe that abortion should only be in the case of the life of the mother, another 33% consider life of the mother, rape and incest as reasons for allowing the procedure. Of those who say the issue is “very important”, 44% believe in a full right to life without any of these exceptions.

This type of split in the levels of abortion acceptance among supporters of more restrictive regulation is a good indication of why the 2011 ballot initiative failed in Mississippi. Pro-abortion supporters easily take advantage of these weak spots in the political movement of pro-lifers. Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that a meeting of the “pro-life” minds could ever come to a more concrete agreement, especially when you consider that their is no way the 44% who want no exceptions could ever accept the position of the two other groups without fundamentally altering their own beliefs.

This leaves those who believe abortion regulation is “very important” without the means to come together and form a consensus, much less deal with the other myriad of confusing issues such as in-vitro fertilization. Without necessary consensus among like minded individuals, it becomes extremely difficult to put forth a consistent message or response in the face of the numerous pro-abortion forces that always come ready to do battle on the issue.

Life of Mother only

Life of Mother, rape and incest

No exceptions

0 12.5 25 37.5 50

Figure 9-2: Abortion Regulation Supporters: Level of abortion acceptance.

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In addition, the lack of a consistent message means there is little hope of convincing a significant portion of the “somewhat important” crowd (32% in our survey; Figure 9-1) to join in and push for more abortion regulation. Put simply, if the true believers can’t come together, then what hope is there to attract the fence-sitters.

There were three specifics offered in the survey to further regulate abortion for those who deem it “very important”. Survey participants rated the following three specifics by level of importance in the following order:

1. Admitting Privileges2. Fetal Heartbeat Bill3. Drug Induced Abortion Regulation

These three specifics were based on proposals in the 2012 Legislature, and all three were overwhelmingly supported by survey participants who think more abortion regulation is “very important”. Drug Induced Abortion Regulation received the greatest “not important” response at 8%.

The method of regulation among our survey participants is a non factor, despite the lack of agreement over how those regulation should be applied.

Out of our 10 issues, abortion regulation is ranked at number 9 in the level of support that deems it “very important”. However, due to the divided nature of responses, when taking the number of those who believe the issue is “not important” into consideration, the issue falls to number 10 in our secondary listing.

Any way you look at the results, Abortion Regulation is not an issue our State of the State Survey participants care much about seeing state leaders deal with in 2013.

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#8. Immigration Reform and Enforcement (Remains #8 in the secondary listing)! How important is it that Mississippi pass meaningful Immigration Reform in 2013?

Immigration Reform is a subject that draws both passion for enforcement and worry for how Mississippi would proceed under a federal government not keen on strict enforcement of the law. Just like with the issue of abortion regulation, conservatives may be somewhat wary of mounting a protracted and, quite possibly, losing battle.

A majority of survey participants find Immigration Reform to be “very important” (59%). But, in terms of the level of importance when compared to other issues on the list, it doesn’t draw as much fervent support. Even when adding in the number of participants that found it to be “somewhat important” (33%) the issue doesn’t move from it’s spot at #8 on the secondary list.

Not important Somewhat important Very important

59%

33%

8%

Figure 8-1

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Steady and BalancedHouse Judiciary B Chairman Rep. Andy Gipson led detailed and orderly committee hearings after withdrawing an Immigration Reform bill from consideration during the 2012 session when it became obvious it wouldn’t get a vote in the Senate.

Gipson has consistently said any Immigration Reform Bill that passes through his committee will withstand the scrutiny of any legal challenges. He has worked to maintain a study of the issue in a way that has tamped down overt emotional responses, so far.

Gipson’s has been a steady, balanced approach. While this gives opponents little negative to grasp in order to raise the ire of the masses on the left, neither does it fire up the base of potential support. The result is an issue that will slowly and somewhat quietly and methodically proceed until a bill is filed and makes it to a floor vote. Then, we can expect fireworks.

Somewhat important Very important

Unemployment

Crime

Opposition

E-Verify

0 20 40 60 80

Figure 8-2: Concerns Regarding Immigration Reform and Enforcement in Mississippi

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Top ConcernsOf the 59% who believe passing meaningful Immigration Reform in 2013 is “very important”, the top driving concern is enforcement of Mississippi’s E-Verify system (79%-Figure 8-2), followed closely by the belief that good legislation will result in a reduction in crime (78%). Both of these concerns are equally considered of “better than average importance” (91%).

Affect on Unemployment (Unemployment; Figure 8-2)--72% think the passage of meaningful Immigration Reform is “very important” to the reduction of unemployment rates in Mississippi, an additional 16% think it is “somewhat important”.

Affect on Crime Rate (Crime; Figure 8-2)--As mentioned above, the number who think the issue is important “very important” to reducing crime is 78%. 13% believe this concern is “somewhat important”.

Winning Over the Opposition (Opposition; Figure 8-2)--Three groups that came out in opposition to a state Immigration enforcement measure during the 2012 session and organized a joint effort to kill passage of the bill were people from the business, law enforcement and religious communities. Our survey indicates that some conservatives are ready to move ahead in 2013 with or without their support. When asked how important gaining the support of these three groups would be to the passage of an Immigration Reform and Enforcement bill, only 64% believe these three groups support is “very important” . 16% believe their support is “somewhat important”. 7% thought that the support is of “less than average importance”, and 13% rank the support of these previous opponents as only “moderately important”.

Getting Tough With E-Verify (E-Verify; Figure 8-2)--When businesses aren’t bolstered by an association with law enforcement and clergy in opposition to Immigration Enforcement, they get little sympathy from our survey participants. Strengthening E-Verify requirements on businesses has been a key issue for Rep. Becky Currie, and it is the highest level of concern of our survey participants when it comes to enforcing immigration laws. Currently, only 7% of Mississippi businesses use the E-Verify system to check the immigration status of job applicants. As mentioned above, 91% of our group believe this should be required of businesses. 79% deem it “very important”.

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#7. Energy (Leaps to #3 on the secondary list)! How important do you think a comprehensive plan for energy development is for Mississippi?

Energy Planning is an issue that get’s an overwhelming nod of approval from our entire survey list. However, when separating those who think the issue is “very important” (61%) from those who only think it to be “somewhat important” (34%), it drops to the bottom tier of issues. Part of this could be due to confusion as to what exactly an energy plan would do for Mississippi, and a lack of understanding the challenges.

It was thought that certain regional distinctions would show up in the survey data when it comes to energy related issues. The Pine Belt, East Mississippi, Gulf Coast, and Southwest Mississippi are key hotspots for energy production, in terms of both traditional energy production and developing technology such as “clean coal” and renewables. But, a review of survey responses from these particular geographic areas of the state produced no distinct difference from that of the overall data.

Not important Somewhat important Very important

61%

34%

5%

Figure 7-1

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An ‘Embarrassment of Riches’A 2012 Mississippi Energy Institute report conducted by the Battelle Technology Partnership found that “Mississippi faces an ‘embarrassment of riches,’ having so many energy-related assets and opportunities that it is a challenge to understand them all, prioritize them based on development potentials, and formulate strategies to optimize their enhancement and growth to benefit Mississippi and Mississippians.”

The Energy Sustainability Act of 2012 was introduced in the legislature to establish a statewide energy plan to help aide that prioritization and development, as well as provide incentives for companies to invest. However, the bill failed to make it past a conference of the House and Senate.

Attempting to keep an energy plan moving ahead, Governor Phil Bryant announced in October of 2012 a plan called Energy Works: Mississippi’s Energy Road Map, a key component of his “Mississippi Works” agenda to create jobs and investment in the state. If our survey participants had their druthers, the Governor would get a little help in that regard from the Legislature in 2013.

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

0 25 50 75 100

Figure 7-2: Increasing Mississippi Production: Energy Sector Levels of Importance

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Oil and Natural Gas Are Top Concerns (See Figure 7-2)Oil--There are around 80 oil companies in Mississippi, the great majority of which are located in the southern third of the state. The states crude oil production in 2011 was over 24 million barrels, the fourth highest annual rate in a decade. In October 2012 Mississippi was producing 67,000 barrels per day. Rates of monthly production have been relatively stable in that range since October of 2008, which marked a bounce back from the lowest point of monthly production in state history that occurred in September of 2005.

Much of the stability in production levels comes as a result of Enhanced Oil Recovery or EOR. In 2009, the legislature provided sales tax breaks for the purchase of Carbon Dioxide used in the EOR process. This break allowed producers the ability to jump start production of many long dormant wells. Other new technology advances have also made it easier to get to oil that previously wasn’t cost effective to drill for. This has led to a recent revival of the industry, particularly in Southwest Mississippi.

Natural Gas--Mississippi has a natural gas pipeline infrastructure that is unsurpassed by any other state. In addition the state ranks in the top ten in both current salt dome storage and gas storage capacity. Natural gas is a major source of electric power generation in Mississippi, as well as a source for several other industrial and residential uses.

Consumption far outpaces production of natural gas in the state. However, it is estimated that Mississippi has a much as 350 billion cubic feet of natural gas off the Gulf Coast. The Mississippi Development Authority began putting together regulations to lease these offshore areas for production in 2011. The state spent 2012 fighting legal battles against environmental groups to proceed. It is estimated that these leases alone could bring revenue to the state of up to $500 million, not to mention the added revenue from economic activity of production.

Our survey participants tend to believe that oil production in Mississippi, along with natural gas, deserves the lions share of the attention in 2013. Both were ranked by 94% as a “very important” part of a Mississippi Energy Plan (see Figure 7-2).

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Coal and Nuclear Are Secondary Concerns (See Figure 7-2)Coal--The EIA currently lists one coal mine in the state in Choctaw County delivering 3.5 million tons of coal annually. The Red Hills Mine is a surface mining operation in Ackerman that began operation in 1999. A Red Hills Power Generation facility was proposed in 2008, but was abandoned following a feasibility study that was never released.

Rentech, a California based energy company, purchased property in Natchez in 2008 for the location of a coal-to-liquid plant. But abandoned that project in May 2012.

Perhaps the most well known and controversial facility associated with coal in Mississippi is the experimental “clean coal” project in Kemper County named Plant Ratcliffe. The project, now under construction, was the source of many high profile and contentious rulings by the Public Service Commission beginning in 2010 and continuing through 2012. Mississippi Power Company is also getting squeezed over the project by the environmentalist Sierra Club for its construction in the Chickasawhay flood plain, a subsidiary of the Pascagoula River System.

Nuclear--EIA estimates that 20% of Mississippi’s energy generation comes from nuclear. The lone nuclear plant in the state is located at Grand Gulf in Port Gibson. The level cost of electricity generated by nuclear plants is estimated to be 60% higher than coal or natural gas. However, a tax on carbon emissions being pushed at the federal level could change that dynamic when it comes to a comparison with coal making nuclear a more viable option.

At present, state policy regarding Nuclear Energy seems to be about positioning state agencies to recognize and take advantage of opportunities when, and if, they arise.

80% of State of the State Survey participants think both Coal and Nuclear are “very important” aspects of developing a state energy plan. Their ratings of the two show an understanding of the uncertain future while recognizing the potential.

Least Concern--Renewables (See Figure 7-2)Renewables--In April 2010, the Mississippi Legislature passed a bill establishing the Mississippi Clean Energy Initiative. This program provides an incentive for companies that manufacture systems or components used to generate renewable energy, including biomass, solar, wind and hydro generation. This program allows the Mississippi Development Authority (MDA) to certify these manufacturers for a tax exemption.

Renewables make up 3% of Mississippi’s electrical generation, the overwhelming majority of which is from biomass. Biomass opportunities abound in Mississippi due to the large inventory available. But, like nuclear energy, it is a potential that requires the state to be prepared for the future as little large investments are yet to occur.

Our survey participants seem to understand this and rate Renewables as the least concern of our five sectors. Only 57% believe Renewables to be “very important”.

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#6. State Retirement (Leaps to #1 on the secondary list)! How important is it that State Retirement be addressed in 2013?

66% of survey participants responded that addressing State Retirement is “very important”. For that reason, it was listed as the sixth most important issue on the main list. However, when collecting for the secondary listing it becomes evident that this is an issue of greater importance. Conservative Mississippian’s obviously want state officials to take a close and critical look.

State Retirement jumps to the number one spot on our secondary listing, distinguishing it as the issue that virtually every one of our participants (97%) thought should be looked at closely this year.

Not Important Somewhat Important Very Important

66%

31%

3%

Figure 6-1

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COLA FreezeA closer look at PERS is very likely in 2013. Senator Nancy Collins of Tupelo has introduced a bill to start a conversation about the long-term stability of the state retirement plan. Her proposal would implement many of the recommendations of a PERS Study Commission from 2011, including freezing the annual cost of living adjustment for 3 years.

PERS is very much a third-rail issue in Mississippi politics. Freezing the COLA has been a political live-wire and few legislators are anxious to grab hold. Individually, it is a subject the majority of them will approach with caution, if at all. Many question the legality of making any changes to the system that would affect current retirees.

SLURP-The State Legislative Retirement PlanOne name that keeps coming up during the conversation is the Legislative Retirement Plan or SLURP. SLURP is an additional retirement for state legislators. While SLURP is currently in good financial shape, Senator Chris McDaniel of Ellisville would like to see an opt out provision.

“The special treatment given to legislators is difficult, if not impossible, to defend,” McDaniel said in an interview with Mississippi PEP in March of 2012. “Assuming it’s not closed, then it is only fair that individual members be allowed to opt-out, if they prefer.”

The graphic below (Figure 6-2) shows what our survey participants think about SLURP as part of the conversation (51%-“very important”), as well as taking a closer look at PERS investment strategy (48%-”very important”), an increase in enrollee contributions (54%-”very important”), and whether taxpayers should be forced to shore up the program again through employer contribution increases (35%-”very important”).

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

SLURP

PERS Investments

Enrollee Contribution

Taxpayer/Employee Contribution

0 15 30 45 60

Figure 6-2: State Retirement Issues: Level of Importance Percent

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#5. Health Care (Falls to #7 on the secondary list)! How important is it for Mississippi officials to develop a clear plan towards managing Health Care Reform issues in 2013?

68% of our survey participants thought the need for a concise state plan to manage the intricacies of Health Care Reform is “very important.”

Health Care is a subject that has received quite a bit of coverage in Mississippi over the past several months thanks to the push by Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney to implement a state based health exchange. Governor Bryant has publicly disagreed and sent a letter to the Dept. of Health and Human Services Director Kathleen Sebelius in an attempt to stop it.

The governor, like numerous other conservative governors across the country, believes that the state health exchange is a precursor to full implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also referred to as ObamaCare. Many say it is a way that the federal government will eventually expand Medicaid despite a Supreme Court ruling that says states have the final decision. Governor Bryant and numerous other state officials have said that such an expansion is unaffordable.

Not Important Somewhat Important Very Important

67%

23%

10%

Figure 5-1

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Affordable Care ActAs we dig into the details, most of our 68% think that Health Care Reform planning should be about finding a way to stop current government efforts. A large majority of survey participants would like to see ACA repealed and the further deregulation of government restrictions and rules regarding health care.

Question (Figure 5-2): Which of the following more closely fits your thoughts about the Affordable Care Act?

No stopping it now. Parts are good and should be kept, others removed.Repeal and Replace Repeal and deregulate other government restrictions

74%

11%

13%2%

Figure 5-2

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Medicaid Expansion (Figure 5-3)Of the 68% who think developing a plan to tackle Health Care Reform issues is important, the prevailing belief is that Medicaid expansion must be rejected.

Medicaid Costs (Figure 5-4)72% of participants who think that Health Care Reform planning is “very important” also believe that the long-term costs to the taxpayers is a “very important” part of the discussion about Medicaid.

No Yes

11%

89%

Figure 5-3:Should Mississippi accept federal money for the expansion of Medicaid?

Less than average importance. Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

72%

15%4%9%

Figure 5-4: How important is long-term costs to discussion of Medicaid expansion?

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The Mississippi Health Insurance ExchangeAs this report is being written, Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney is still waiting for the ruling from the United States Health and Human Services as to whether he may continue the implementation of a state Health Insurance Exchange over the governor’s objection. The Mississippi Insurance Department has received $20 million in federal monies to implement the program so far.

Question (Figure 5-5): Do you believe implementation is a responsible move on the part of Commissioner Chaney?

Of our 68% who believe the state should have a plan to address Health Care Reform, 81% believe that the Commissioner’s current efforts are a bad idea. 66% believe it is not the governments role. 15% believe a state exchange is a good idea, but that the current effort will help the federal government implement ObamaCare in Mississippi.

15% believe Commissioner Chaney is doing the right thing. 4% disagree with an exchange in either case, but are resigned to the idea that nothing will stop it.

If we don't set up an exchange the federal government will do it for us.This should be stopped immediately. This is not the governments role.It makes no difference whether the bureaucrats are in Jackson or Washington.A state-run exchange is a good idea, but this provides a precursor to ObamaCare.

15%

4%

66%

15%

Figure 5-5

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#4. Economic Development (Falls to #6 on the secondary list)! How important is it that state officials push to attract more companies and jobs to Mississippi?

Economic Development is an issue that has very recently received some negative attention due to the lawsuit and settlement between the state and Twin Creeks. Twin Creeks was a California solar panel company that received a state guaranteed loan of $50 million in 2010 from the legislature thanks to a little arm-twisting from then Governor Haley Barbour. In return the company promised to create 500 jobs at a facility in Senatobia built using the state money.

Before Twin Creeks could begin production, low priced Chinese solar panels swamped the market and put them out of business, leaving the state holding the bag for $27.7 million, and the City of Senatobia with a vacant building.

Despite debacles like this and the now infamous Mississippi Beef Plant which was somewhat similar (except, people went to jail for fraud in that case), our survey participants clearly want the state to keep trying to attract companies to Mississippi for job creation. However, based on comments, they would like to see more of a focus on Mississippi owned companies, and corporations with a track record in proven technologies, and more private investment as part of any package.

Not Important Somewhat Important Very Important

73%

17%

10%

Figure 4-1

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Right to Work Most Important (Figure 4-2)All participants responded positively to our three details regarding Economic Development, but none was more important than maintaining Mississippi’s status as a right-to-work state. 92% responded that maintaining right-to-work laws was “very important”.

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

Tax Incentives

Job Training

Right to Work

0 25 50 75 100

Figure 4-2

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#3. Taxes and Fees (Falls to #5 on the secondary list)! How important is it that Mississippi maintain a hard line against additional taxes and fees in 2013?

Taxes and Fees comes in at number three on our main list despite having the exact same “very important” score by survey participants as that of Economic Development. In this case, we used the “somewhat important” score as a tiebreaker. Fewer thought it was “not important”, so this issue gets a slight edge over Economic Development in the level of importance.

Both Taxes and Fees and Economic Development ssues drop two-points in the secondary listing to numbers five and six, respectively.

Not Important Somewhat Important Very Important

73%

21%

6%

Figure 3-1

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Gas Tax (Figure 3-2)Central District Transportation Commissioner Dick Hall has been sounding the alarms over the deteriorating condition of Mississippi highways. His solution is to raise the gas tax from 18 cents per gallon--the seventh lowest gas tax in the nation--to 28 cents per gallon to pay for the needed maintenance.

Hall says a new gas tax is needed to continue economic development by attracting more companies like Nissan and Toyota, and maintaining a highway system that is the best in the mid-South states.

Our survey participants aren’t buying into the additional tax at this point, although 24% did respond that a proposal should be given consideration.

Yes It should be considered. I don’t know No

71%

3%

24%

2%

Figure 3-2

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Internet Taxes (Figure 3-3)Rep. Mark Formby of Picayune and Rep. Jessica Upshaw of Diamondhead were both looking closely at this issue toward the end of 2011. Rep. Formby talked about it in terms of “fairness” for brick-and-mortar businesses in Mississippi to be able to compete. Rep. Upshaw even went so far as to introduce a “by request” bill to that affect. “By request” means that a constituent requested it and the introducing representative does not necessarily support it.

If the majority of our survey participants have their way, the hands off approach of Rep. Upshaw will be the approach the entire state keeps when it comes to collecting sales tax on the internet.

Question (Figure 3-3): How important is it that Mississippi continue a hands off approach to collecting taxes on internet purchases?

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

64% 9%

10%

17%

Figure 3-3

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Fees (Figure 3-4)One way state government raises revenue without legislating new and direct taxation is through fee increases. Many times these fee increases are buried deep in agency reauthorization bills. Other times they are legislated into being by a “clean” bill introduced for the particular purpose of increasing fees.

The Legislative Joint Committee on Performance Evaluation and Expenditure Review (PEER) has reported on fee structures twice in the past several years, once in 2001 and once in 2006. In 2006 the review was intra-governmental, a study of how agencies charged fees to other agencies. The 2001 review was a review of direct fees by agencies to the public conducted due to a legislative request. According to the PEER report the purpose of the review was to determine the potential for additional fees for state services as a revenue source.

In the 2001 report, the PEER committee recognized potential new fee revenues that covered 41 state agencies and offices. How many of those fees were implemented through legislation? It is difficult to know. But, such is the underground nature of fee increases that allow state elected officials to say they haven’t raised taxes.

The majority of our survey participants are united against any such future increases in 2013.

Question: How important is it that Mississippi officials reject any and all increases in fees for licensing and other user related fees?

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

62%19%

12%7%

Figure 3-4

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Property Taxes (Figure 3-5)Mississippi is one of 37 states that collect property taxes at both the state and local levels. The vast majority of that is collected at the local level. Mississippi collected only $2 per capita during FY 2009 according to the Census Bureau. However, the property taxes at the local level kicked in an additional $791 per capita. Despite the large difference, as a whole Mississippi’s property taxation still ranks the state at number 41 nationally.

The neighboring state of Alabama collects the least amount in property taxes in the nation at $503 per capita, of which $437 is at the local level. The average of all states is $1,388.

Our survey participants by and large would prefer to see reform of the property tax laws in Mississippi. But, only half believe it is “very important”.

Question: How important is it that Mississippi review and reform property tax laws?

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

50%

16%

22%

12%

Figure 3-5

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#2. Education (Falls to #4 on the secondary list)! How important is it that Mississippi address changes to education funding and organization in 2013?

Total education funding in Mississippi takes up over 60% of the annual budget. It’s extraordinary that the rest of state government runs on around 30% of state revenue.

In the 2013 budget year, which began July 1, K-12 schools received $2.035 billion. That’s $19 million more than in 2012. The Mississippi Department of Education (MDE) will also receive hundreds of millions of dollars from the federal government by way of grant funding for Title I, special needs and nutritional programs.

The MDE request for FY 2014 is $2.365 billion, $330 million more than FY 2013.

It is interesting to note that the Education issue fell one place to number four on our secondary list. However, as previously noted the top 5 issues on the secondary list were within two points of each other.

Not Important Somewhat Important Very Important

78%

16%

6%

Figure 2-1

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Mississippi Adequate Education Program (Figure 2-2)The Mississippi Adequate Education Program (MAEP) is a controversial formula that has only been funded twice during it’s entire existence. The stated goal of the formula is to provide additional funds to aide low performing schools. However, many lawmakers believe it is time for a review of the formula. Public Education lobbyists have used the formula as a bargaining chip to gain additional funding over the years, and have used it as a public relations tool against lawmakers during elections.

Exactly how the funding formula educates children has yet to be explained in a succinct way, leading many to conclude that it is little more than psychobabble.

Our survey participants were divided over the worth of the formula, indicating how divisive the MAEP has become when discussing education policy and funding. 38% think full funding has “less than average importance” in the discussion about education funding and organization. 33% think that it is of “greater than average importance”. 30% think it is of “average importance”. These numbers show a clear division. So, the battle rages on.

Question (Figure 2-2): How important is it that Mississippi fully fund the MAEP formula for public schools?

Not important Less important Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

20%

13%

30%

13%

25%

Figure 2-2

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Administrative Consolidation (Figure 2-3)Nothing draws the ire of Public Education lobbyists quite like talk of consolidation. In many cases across the state, the school district is the largest local employer. Perhaps that is an indication of how far we have fallen when Public Education funding is treated as a jobs program.

Calls of administrative consolidation are often quickly and purposefully confused by Public Education lobbyist with school consolidation in order to frighten parents and the community. As such, any state official who even utters the “C” word may find themselves a political target.

Nevertheless, there are those lawmakers that want to have the discussion. Rep. Toby Barker of Hattiesburg has been one of them. Many see the approach of consolidating administrative responsibilities such as payroll and transportation as a worthwhile cost savings measure.

68% of our survey participants think that Administrative Consolidation is of “greater than average importance” to the discussion of Education Funding and Organization.

Not important Less important Average importanceSomewhat important Very Important

50%

18%

16%

8%8%

Figure 2-3

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Transparency (Figure 2-4)When millions of dollars are on the line, Public Education officials have shown they are willing to twist and turn data in order to keep appropriators, taxpayers and parents guessing. Nothing uncovered that tactic more clearly in 2012 than that of the decision to not count graduation rates.

In July, the state Board of Education voted 6-1 to drop for one year the requirements that at least 80 percent of students must graduate for schools to earn the top “star” rating, or that at least 75 percent of students must graduate from schools for them to earn the second-highest rank of “high performing.” That vote allowed Public Education officials to hide data that would have had a punitive affect on low performing districts.

Governor Bryant has called for a new merit pay system for teachers. One can only imagine the ways possible to hide or alter data to fit a particular need when teachers paychecks are involved.

A new A-F grading system has helped make the Public Education system more accountable and transparent. However, the evidence shows that the Superintendents Association, teachers unions, and Public Education lobbyists will fight “by any means necessary”, including playing a shell game.

Our survey participants seem to very clearly understand this. 89% believe transparency is of “greater than average importance” to the issue of Education Funding and Organization.

Question (Figure 2-4): How important is it to make education rankings and test results transparent to the public?

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

73%

16%

6%5%

Figure 2-4

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Education Reform and Introducing Competition (Figure 2-5 and Figure 2-6)Education reform, specifically charter schools, has taken up much of the time of the Legislature and those who write about it. Mississippi PEP has been one of those publications. In fact, the website began with the idea of emphasizing Mississippi’s fight for reform in education.

However, the fight is about far more than charter schools. In the end, the hope of most reformers who believe in the issue is about Parental Choice. The concept is very simple: parents should should have the final say on how their children are educated.

Education Reform advocate Senator Michael Watson’s wrote in a Mississippi PEP article, “Mississippi public education is failing because it has systematically taken the parent out of the education equation. This did not happen because of one person, or even one generation, but little by little, government has taken the responsibility of education, and government does not take responsibility without also taking power.”

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

78%

6%5%

10%

Figure 2-5:How important is introducing competition into public education?

Current system, no changesCurrent system w/increased fundingCharters in underperfoming districts

Charters statewideFull array of school choices

0 20 40 60 80

Figure 2-6: Which of the following do you support?

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#1. Entitlement Reform (Falls to #2 on the secondary list)! How important is it that the Mississippi Legislature in 2013 to set work requirements, drug testing, and other means where applicable to be sure benefits aren't provided to those who are irresponsible?

Entitlement Reform is an issue that makes it to the top spot on our list despite not being nearly as discussed as many, if not all, of the other 9 issues over the past year. That it made it to number one was a surprise, but the issue has not been without some action in the recent past.

First, there was the issue of drug testing for beneficiaries of government assistance that was a topic of discussion during the race for Lt. Governor in 2011. Secondly, a bill introduced by Senator Nancy Collins in the 2012 session would have forced “able bodied” recipients of welfare to participate in community service, such as picking up litter. The bill died in committee and--except for a brief negative stint in the media--made little splash.

Mississippi leads the nation in the number of people on food stamps, now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Many Mississippians give first hand accounts of witnessing abuse of the program. The program pays out more than $957 million in benefits to nearly 660,000 Mississippi residents a year. But investigators say many of those receiving the benefits are doing so illegally. One case of fraud in November 2012 netted nearly two dozen people for $160,000 worth of fraudulent benefit claims.

No Important Somewhat Important Very Important

85%

10%5%

Figure 1-1

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The labyrinth of federal/state means tested programs is tough to decipher. Generally speaking, the federal government provides funding through block grants to the states for such programs as Food Stamps, TANF, Medicaid, Child Welfare, and many others. States then manage the programs through state agencies that set rules for those who qualify within established federal requirements. In some cases, states can set rules for participation, such as work requirements and application standards.

Considering the number of these programs, the differences in how they are applied and the constant change by which they are managed, it was impossible to provide survey participants with a precise question regarding specific management of a particular program. That’s government regulation at work for you. Therefore, we asked each under the premise of a general question: Where these reforms are possible would you support them being carried out?

The questions for each were:Drug Testing (Figure 1-2)How important is it that Mississippi require drug testing of beneficiaries of public benefits? 81%-“very important”.

Work Requirements (Figure 1-2)How important is it that Mississippi require able bodied individuals to show proof they are looking for employment while receiving public benefits? 92%-”very important”

Public Works (Figure 1-2)How important is it to require able bodied individuals to participate in public works projects such as cleaning up litter, and maintenance of public assets? 85%-”very important”

Time Restrictions (Figure 1-2)How important is it that Mississippi set restrictions on the length of time an able bodied person may receive public assistance? 88%-”very important”

Less than average importance Average importanceSomewhat important Very important

Drug TestingWork Requirements

Public WorksTime Restrictions

0 25 50 75 100

Figure 1-2

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Conclusions

One brief look at the main list and it becomes apparent that “pocketbook” issues are the main cause of concern for our survey participants. Main List1. Entitlement Reform2. Education 3. Taxes and Fees4. Economic Development5. Health Care6. State Retirement7. Energy8. Immigration Reform9. Abortion Regulation10.State Bonds and Infrastructure Needs

Entitlement Reform and Education are closely related to unemployment. Lower Taxes and Fees make employment easier to maintain and jobs easier to find. Economic Development keeps the job market fresh with new opportunities. And Health Care provides the safety and security of benefits from a job. The current level of uncertainty in Health Care is also relevant because a great many small business employers don’t know what level of taxation they will face as a result of ObamaCare.

A closer look at the secondary list shows concern for the level of spending and financing of state government programs. Secondary List1. State Retirement2. Entitlement Reform3. Energy4. Education5. Taxes and Fees6. Economic Development7. Health Care8. Immigration Reform9. State Bonds and Infrastructure Needs10.Abortion Regulation

State Retirement and Entitlement Reform would be at the top of a list of spending concerns for obvious reasons. Energy planning offers the the state an opportunity to begin seeing an influx of revenue. Education is always about spending when you consider the percentage of the budget that is dedicated to it. And, potential increases in Taxes and Fees are always a concern for a government in need of money.

A closer look a the detail answers for each separate issue shows the same level of concern for government intervention that destroys job creation in the face of the need for more government revenue. It is the classic government vs. free market battle.

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Section III. Job Approval Ratings

At Mississippi PEP we attempt to report on politics as an aside to policy. But, the two are closely entwined and sometimes impossible to separate. We have made a point not to develop lists, as some other websites do, of the up-and-coming hot shots of politics. That may be fine for groupies, but our focus is how good policy is good for Mississippians. We believe that can only come about if people are educated about what is actually occurring in state government and don’t become awestruck by those that hold office.

So, it is with a bit of trepidation that we added a Job Approval Ratings section to the State of the State Report. Ultimately we settled in on the fact that this approval process would be informative when put side by side with ranking of Issues as to how state officials and elected bodies performed their jobs. It’s not intended as a list of political power players.

To accomplish a more informative survey, we did more than normal approval rating polls. Those polls for the most part offer only an up or down vote; approval, disapproval, or no opinion. As we did in the previous sections, we provided more options to determine levels of approval. This allowed us to find where a elected official was seen as a divisive figure. We also had survey participants vote in a head to head between all state elected officials in our list to see if there were any surprises there, and to use in conjunction with the individual rankings.

What we found was many of the Job Approval Ratings closely parallel the actions many of the state officials have taken on Issues. Both Lt. Governor Reeves and Speaker Gunn’s ratings closely parallel the ratings of the elected bodies they oversee. Commissioner Chaney’s rankings closely parallel survey results regarding the Health Insurance Exchange he has attempted to implement. We invite you to look at the results side-by-side with the issues and find your own interesting comparisons.

We didn’t place regionally elected officials on the list. To do so would have added to the tedium of an already long survey and caused some issues with the geographic breakdown. We focused only on statewide elected officials and elected bodies.

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Head to Head

Question: Which elected body or elected official do you believe was the most successful in 2012?

Head to Head Rankings1. Governor Phil Bryant2. Speaker Philip Gunn3. Other4. Lt. Governor Tate Reeves5. Mississippi Senate6. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann7. Auditor Stacey Pickering8. Treasurer Lynn Fitch9. Mississippi House10. Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney11. Mississippi Supreme Court12. Attorney General Jim Hood

Governor Phil Bryant

Lt. Governor Tate Reeves

Speaker Philip Gunn

Treasurer Lynn Fitch

Auditor Stacey Pickering

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann

Attorney General Jim Hood

Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney

Mississippi Supreme Court

Mississippi Senate

Mississippi House

Other

0 7.5 15 22.5 30

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Job PerformanceEach official was ranked based on their own individual merit and not in conjunction with another official. For reasons of comparison we have grouped officials in four tiers.

Rate the following officials job performance with 1 being disapproval and 5 being approval.

Tier 1

In terms of strict Approval/Disapproval numbers:

• Governor Phil Bryant has a disapproval rating among survey participants of 9% with an approval rating of 91%.

• Lt. Governor Tate Reeves has a disapproval rating among survey participants of 29% with an approval rating of 71%.

• Speaker Philip Gunn has a disapproval rating among survey participants of 12% with an approval rating of 88%.

Governor Phil Bryant Lt Governor Tate Reeves Speaker Philip Gunn

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

1 2 3 4 5

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Tier 2

In terms of strict Approval/Disapproval numbers:

• Treasurer Lynn Fitch has a disapproval rating among survey participants of 15% with an approval rating of 85%.

• Auditor Stacey Pickering has a disapproval rating among survey participants of 19% with an approval rating of 81%.

• Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann has a disapproval rating among survey participants of 13% with an approval rating of 87%.

Treasurer Fitch Auditor Pickering Secretary Hosemann

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5

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Tier 3

In terms of strict Approval/Disapproval numbers:

• Attorney General Jim Hood has a disapproval rating of 65% with an approval rating of 35%.

• Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney has a disapproval rating of 57% with an approval rating of 43%.

AG Hood Commissioner Chaney

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

1 2 3 4 5

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Tier 4--Elected Bodies

In terms of strict Approval/Disapproval numbers:

• The Mississippi Supreme Court has a disapproval rating of 9% with an approval rating of 91%.

• The Mississippi Senate has a disapproval rating of 28% with an approval rating of 72%.

• The Mississippi House has a disapproval rating of 15% with an approval rating of 85%.

Supreme Court Senate House

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

1 2 3 4 5

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Job Approval Rankings! !!! ! ! ! ! ! Approval! ! ! Disapproval

1.Governor Phil Bryant!! ! 91%! ! ! ! 9%1.Mississippi Supreme Court!! 91%! ! ! ! 9%2.Speaker Philip Gunn 88% 12%3.Secretary Delbert Hosemann 87% 13%4.Treasurer Lynn Fitch 85% 15%4.Mississippi House 85% 15%5.Auditor Stacey Pickering 81% 19%6.Mississippi Senate 72% 28%7.Lt. Governor Tate Reeves 71% 29%8.Commissioner Mike Chaney 57% 43% 9.Attorney General Jim Hood 65% 35%

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We’re Done!

That concludes the Mississippi PEP 2013 Conservative State of the State Report. We hope you find value in what we have presented, and will share these findings with others.

More white papers and surveys will be conducted throughout 2013. When the time comes we ask that you continue your participation. Results of surveys are an important way to communicate the ideas and the expectations to elected officials. We want you to continue to be a part of that.

We welcome any feedback you will provide. Please send your comments to [email protected]

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