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Krzysztof M. Księżopolski
THE IMPACT OF SECURITIZATION AND ECONOMIZATION OF SECURITY ON THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION REGIME
Keywords:
international climate protection regime, securitization, economization, economic
security, energy security, climate protection, RES, green economy
Climate protection is one of the key challenges that humanity faces today. This
is not only due to the negative impact of climate change on economic development
or stability of political systems, but also due to the fact that traditional energy
extraction from coal, oil and gas energy sources has to be restricted because of CO2
emission, the effect of which are rising temperatures. This means that the search for
new energy sources with zero or low CO2 emission will soon become requisite.
Historical data indicate that economic development is accompanied by a rise in
energy demand. The amount of energy used by people is going up systematically, up
until 8000 years B.C. mankind consumed 2.5*10*18J, in the year 1950 this amount
rose to 2002*10*18J1. In the last 20 years this growth has become even more
dynamic; the total primary energy demand reached 8,779 Mtoe in 1990, however, in
2010 it amounted to as much as 12,730 Mtoe. What is more, forecasts indicate that
in 2035 the demand will reach 17,197 Mtoe2. Technological advances resulting in the
use of new energy carriers, which means the transition from wood to coal and further
to oil and gas, enabled an increase in labour efficiency and the development of
production techniques which cannot be carried out only by means of human labour.
One cannot help but agree with Dennis Meadows that the process of economic
development is in fact the process of consumption of ever growing amounts of
1 I.G. Simmons, Global Enviromenal History 10000BC to AD 2000, p. 10.
2 World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA, p. 552.
36
energy in order to increase human labour efficiency3. In the past, due to
technological advance, the use of new energy carriers used to cause a strong impulse
for development. Main problem in the case of leading energy sources has always
been the difficulty to meet the demand, an example of which can be ancient Rome,
struggling with timber deficiency. In modern days the issue of supply has been the
subject of studies and analyses known as peak oil. Until recently the notion prevailed
that the growing energy demand will not be satisfied by an increased oil and gas
extraction due to the lack of new resources or lack of technical means to extract
those that have already been discovered. The prospect of high oil and gas prices led
to the development of technologies that enabled an economically viable extraction of
resources which until recently were technologically unavailable e.g. shale gas and the
discovery of new resources. As a result, the restrictions in demand have been
postponed in time. However, a new restriction connected with the current world
energy balance has appeared, namely climate change. As early as in 1988 nations
forming IPCC4 acknowledged the necessity to take interest in climate issues. The aim
was to create a consensus among scientists worldwide dealing with climate change
and its consequences. This was supposed to result in establishing a strategy aiming to
solve this problem. The effect of IPCC efforts was the signing of an international
treaty known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in 1992 which set out a negotiating framework for the so called
Conferences of the Parties (COP), in which all states participate. The Convention aims
to stabilize greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
stop dangerous interference with the climate system. As result of the negotiation
process, which took place as part of the Framework Convention, was the signing of an
additional protocol referred to as the Kyoto Protocol. After long negotiations on
November 18, 2004 Russia ratified the protocol which became effective on February
16, 2005. The ratification of the protocol does not mean, however, that the
restrictions on CO2 emissions are set for all states. Despite efforts and elapsing time,
3 D. H. Meadows, D. l. Meadows, J. Randers, W. W. Behrens, The Limits to Growth, New York 1972, p. 87.
4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
37
an international climate protection regime based on the commitment of all states to
reduce emissions has not been created since 2005. The lack of progress has been the
impulse to look into the causes of this impasse. The present paper deals with the
process of securitization and economization of security that can help to clarify the
reasons behind this stagnation. The author is applying innovative methods to address
the issue. First method is based on the framework of security analysis established by
Copenhagen School. In this case this method gives a chance to answer what is
consider as security matters and what is not and thanks to that it helps to explain
what is one of the top priorities in security agenda of countries. Second method is
less popular but also useful. In the paper it could explain why the economic security is
higher in security agenda in Poland than climate threat.
Securitization and economization of security
The process of securitization is based on the premise that an issue goes
through three stages known as securitization. During the first stage the issue is not
subject to public debate, the second stage occurs when the issue is subject to public
debate and is referred to as politicized. In the third stage the issue becomes
a securitized issue and is considered by the Copenhagen School to be a threat to
security. As a result of securitization, a politicized issue, an issue in the second stage,
poses a threat to a nation, group, a country’s sovereignty or economic life. As it
transpires, securitization is a social process, i.e. a process which requires the
participation and interest of citizens. As a consequence of the securitization process,
an issue which was not considered an issue of security and would not be placed high
on the hierarchy of the country’s objectives, becomes an issue of security.
A securitized issue is an issue that requires prompt actions on the part of the
government that go beyond standard measures, including the use of force. This
process happens through the actions of governments, political and military elites as
well as civil society that are the agents of securitization5. In democratic countries
5 B. Buzan, O. Weaver, J. de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder 1998, p. 23.
38
securitization occurs most commonly through governmental actions as governments
possess democratic licence which gives them advantage over the other agents of the
securitization process. Securitization can lead to legitimizing actions which intrude on
the life of civil societies and alter them to such an extent that would be unacceptable
in normal conditions. Globally this can mean the use of military force to pursue own
goals. Also a reverse phenomenon called desecuritization can occur which consists in
the fact that a given issue stops being a threat to security6. On the other hand, the
process of security economization results in growing importance of economic factors
to security. This process is influenced by processes taking place in international
relations and domestic affairs. These processes are i.a. scientific and technical
advance, the process of globalization and interdependence between countries, the
competition for resources growing between countries. Economization means that
countries need to acknowledge the sphere of economy as the scene for rivalry and
competition, as an area in which it is possible and justified to use force to pursue own
goals. The process of security economization leads to the situation in which the
importance of economic security in politics and strategies of countries rises and
becomes as vital as military security. Economic security is defined as the unimpeded
functioning of economies as well as sustaining a comparative balance between the
economies of other countries7. There are four dimensions of economic security:
financial dimension and dimensions of resources and energy, food and access to
clean water8. They are intertwined and form logically connected sets of threats.
Securitization of climate change
In the case of climate change the securitization process in most countries has
not taken place due to the fact that neither prompt actions are being taken, nor
extraordinary measures such as force are being used. A group of states forming the
6 H. Stritzel, Towards a Theory of Securitization: Copenhagen and Beyond, “European Journal of International
Relations” 2007, t. 13, nr 3, p. 357. 7 K.M. Księżopolski, Ekonomiczne zagrożenia bezpieczeństwa państwa: metody i środki przeciwdziałania,
Warszawa 2004, p. 39-54. 8 K.M. Księżopolski, Bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2011, p. 27-35.
39
Alliance of Small Island States, AOSIS is an exception and is already experiencing
direct consequences of climate change to the extent which poses a threat to their
functioning. However, in most countries the issues of climate change have not
reached the third stage and thus have not become a threat to security. Nonetheless,
the whole process is ongoing, which becomes evident when one takes into account
the constant attempts of scientists, politicians, some types of media and non-
governmental organizations to draw the societies’ attention to this issue. The
phenomenon of climate change is difficult to grasp by citizens and what is more, its
effects are not spread in an even manner geographically or temporally across the
world. This particular feature of the phenomenon substantially hinders the process of
securitization. However, another issue connected with climate change has been
subject to the process of securitization, namely energy. In public debate energy issues
are being isolated from the notion of economic security and start functioning as
independent entities. It is due to the fact that some countries have used the import
of hydrocarbons as an instrument of foreign policy since 1970s, the assumption that
a reliable supplies of cheap energy is indispensable to ensure economic growth as
well as alleviate the negative impact of rising energy prices on consumers. This
impact is visible at petrol stations, in electricity and heating prices as well the prices
of foodstuffs that also rise when hydrocarbon prices go up. Due to their impact on
the whole economy, energy issues affect the level of satisfaction of basic social
needs. As a consequence, society perceives energy issues as easier to grasp and
understand, and thus securitize them.
Therefore, energy issues have been securitized, i.e. unlike climate issues they
have become threats to security. This means serious consequences for the policies
and strategies of states, which place energy issues higher on the hierarchy of
objectives, thus giving them priority over climate issues. This situation is also affected
by the lack of precise, conclusive and coherent analyses concerning the impact of
climate change on the world we live in. For instance, the report The Economics of
Climate Change presents forecasts on the impact of the amount of CO2 in the
40
atmosphere on temperature levels. Differences in forecasts are apparent, e.g.
depending on the research temperature can by the concentration of 400 ppm of CO2,
change from 0.6 % to 4.9 %, ergo the discrepancy amounts to as many as 4.3 degrees,
by 1000 ppm of CO2 temperature may rise from 2.2 to 17.1 degrees, which means
a difference of almost 15 degrees (see table no. 1)9.
Table no. 1.
Stabilisation level (ppm CO2 equivalent)
Temperature increase at equilibrium relative to pre-industrial ( C)
IPCC TAR 2001 Hadley Center
Ensemble Eleven Studies
400 0,8-2,4 1,3-2,8 0,6-4,9
450 1,0-3,1 1,7-3,7 0,8-6,4
500 1,3-3,8 2,0-4,5 1,0-7,9
550 1,5-4,4 2,4-5,3 1,2-9,1
650 1,8-5,5 2,9-6,6 1,5-11,4
750 2,2-6,4 3,4-7,7 1,7-13,3
1000 2,8-8,3 4,4-9,9 2,2-17,1 Source: N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change, STERN REVIEW, Cambrige 2007, p. 12.
To discover the relationship between the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere
and rising temperatures is one of the problems which are difficult to measure.
Another research problem which defies a clear answer is to what extent the rise in
temperatures will affect changes occurring in nature. Summarizing the presented
analyses on the impact of climate change on social life based on econometric models
carries a high risk of error and does not provide conclusive arguments to securitize
climate protection. Apparently, the researchers who have been dealing with this
issue for years are not certain as to the scale of the negative impact. This problem is
intensified by the negative past experience with forecasts showing the relationship of
man with nature and its consequences e.g. the failed U Thant’s report presented on
May 26, 1969 on a session of the UN General Assembly which contained a statement
that unless prompt actions are taken mankind will become extinct in the next 10
years. Hence, the cause for the lack of securitization of climate issues is more
9 N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. STERN REVIEW, Cambridge 2007, p.12.
41
complicated and cannot be merely put down to the unwillingness of countries and
governments but to the lack of consumers’ conviction.
To sum up, there is a tension between the today’s power industry and climate
protection as the rise in demand for energy is satisfied from non-renewable, mainly
coal, oil and gas sources. Despite the fact that coal combustion results in immense
CO2 emissions, between 1990 and 2010 CO2 the consumption rose from 2 231 Mtoe
to 3 474 accounting for 25,4 % to 27,2 % TPED10 respectively. From the perspective of
climate protection this is the worst of possible solutions, however, from the point of
view of the hierarchy of countries’ objectives, which is to satisfy energy needs, i.e.
provide cheap and reliable energy that enables economic development and achieving
economic security, this is a natural and reasonable measure. Hence, countries such
as Poland or China do not accede to the international regulations which set forth
a further reduction of emissions. A solution to this contradiction between the current
energy policy of some countries and climate protection can be the development of
the renewable energy industry, which results in zero or low emissions. Nonetheless,
in public debate it very often comes up that the development of RES is costly and may
cause the weakening of economies’ competitiveness. Problems of managing the
energy, lack of supply stability and excessively high costs of connection to grid are
also touched upon. Such assumptions neglect vital elements that weigh in favour of
the development of RES, thus representing a narrow, sector-oriented perception of
the phenomenon and ignoring strategic planning and the dynamics of technological
change.
Security economization and climate change
The economization of security leads to the emergence of the notion of
economic security, which in the course of research has developed the tools for the
analysis of economic security level. The issues of climate change and economic
security will be discussed in two contexts. Firstly, how climate change will affect
10
World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA, p. 552.
42
economic security and what the impact of international regulations concerning
climate protection on economic security will be. Analyses on the influence of climate
change on economic development and economic security carry a high risk of error as
all long-term forecasts, which does not only affect the process of securitization,
a problem outlined above, but also influences countries’ strategies. Stern’s report
stated that if no actions are taken, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be
equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, for the foreseeable future. If
a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage
could rise to 20% of GDP or more (…)11. The authors of the report forecast in more
detail that temperature will rise between 2 and 3 degrees, which will cause a loss of
0.6% up to 1.4% in GDP in the most probable version of the forecast. The grimmest
but also least possible scenarios show losses of 4.0% up to 9.1% of world GDP. By the
year 2100 in India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East the loss will reach up to
2.5%. As to the considerable climate change scenario India, Southeast Asia will lose
3.5%, Africa and the Middle East 2.7% of GDE (see table no. 3)12.
Table no. 2 Cost of GDP losses according to PAGE 2002.
Change
of temperature
Mean expected cost 5th
percentile 95th
percentile
2°C 0.6% 0.2% 4.0%
3°C 1.4% 0.3% 9.1%
4°C 2.6% 0.4% 15.5%
5°C 4.5% 0.6% 23.3%
Source: N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. STERN REVIEW, Cambridge 2007, s. 295.
The results presented in Stern’s report have been contested and questioned13.
One cannot help but agree with Wiliam Nordhaus that the report does not give an
answer to the most burning question: how quickly, if and when to introduce
11
N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. STERN REVIEW, Cambridge 2007, p. 575. 12
Ibidem. 13
W. D. Nordhaus, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge 2006, p. 2.
43
regulations on climate14. It also has to be stressed that the presented studies and
attempts to create a model neglect the aspect of expenditure as they are based solely
on an analysis of income. Due to this fact, the usefulness of the report consists in
presenting some tendencies, trends and possible but not reliable financial
calculations. This observation hinders the analysis of climate change impacts on
economic security. To sum up, the effect of climate change on economic growth and
economic security will not be the same for all countries; one can distinguish countries
that will be less affected by these changes or even will benefit from it, such as Russia.
Today there are also countries that in a few years time may disappear from the world
political map as a result of the flooding of their territories. In 2007, the Maldives
turned to India and requested that they take in their citizens under such
circumstances. However, there are also other costs that are crucial to the main
emitters of CO2, the most influential economic and military powers, namely the costs
of maintaining international stability under the circumstances that in the densely
populated areas of the world, e.g. Africa, crop production will drop even by 50% in
some regions. In general, depending on the adopted model in the populous countries
of the South, a fall in crop production will reach from 10 to 15% at 550 units of ppm15.
This situation might make it necessary to increase defence expenses and
development aid, which will affect the economic development of those countries.
On the other hand, a considerable effect on the economic security of countries
is due to the adopted climate protection system which is based on assigning emission
levels in terms of absolute values for each country depending on the current emission
level and requires introducing relevant reductions. The adoption of this kind of
regulations does not include other factors, such as population, territory and CO2
consumption rate. Current statistical data shows that China is the biggest emitter of
CO2 in absolute values. However, if one compares emission levels to population
numbers, i.e. per capita CO2 emissions or if one relates them to the size of the
territory, the result will be significantly different. If the criterion of per capita
14
Ibidem, p.21. 15
N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review, Cambridge 2007, p. 71.
44
emissions is applied to such countries as the USA, Russia, Australia, they have
a higher per capita emission than China. On the other hand, if one takes as a criterion
emission levels per square km of a given country’s territory, then even in such
countries as South Korea, Japan, Germany, Poland and Italy the CO2 emissions are
higher than in China. CO2 emission values adopted in absolute terms as a point of
reference for the reductions give an advantage to those countries that are
competitive (Northern countries) and as a consequence, instead of producing goods,
the manufacturing of which would lead to high emissions, the countries can rely on
import. In order to create a more just and effective ratio, on the basis of which the
tools for action can be made, one needs to use as a point of reference the CO2
consumption rate. This method consists in assigning to each good a certain amount of
emission, which depends on the amount of emission needed to manufacture it. This
way one can determine the amount of CO2 emissions for each country and start the
reduction from this level. Contrary to the method that is now being used, the
alternative one takes into account the relationship between CO2 consumption and
emission. The current method causes the member states of the EU to stop the
production of goods resulting in high CO2 emissions on their territories and start
importing these products from the countries that are not bound by emission
restrictions (countries that are not included in annex 1 to the Kyoto Protocol, e.g.
from China). As a consequence of this phenomenon one can observe the dynamic rise
in emissions in Southern countries and the observance of the emission reduction
criteria by Northern countries. Great Britain can serve as an example: if one relies on
the current method, it becomes apparent that CO2 emissions have declined, by
means of the second method one will observe a rise in CO2 consumption.
In conclusion, a better method from the perspective of economic interests of
Southern countries, China, India etc. and the actual long-term climate protection,
would be to base the legislation pertaining to the reduction of CO2 on the CO2
consumption ratio in a given country. By applying the criterion of CO2 consumption
the use of the strategy of transfer of production to other countries would be
45
prevented and the climate would be more effectively protected from the negative
human interference, thus providing an incentive for producers to use less harmful
technologies. As a leader in the protection of the world climate, the European Union
promotes regulations which are optimal from the economic point of view, thus
increasing pressure on Southern countries.
The European Union declared to introduce unilateral commitments for the
reduction of CO2 emissions by 30% by 2020 in relation to the base year, 1990, in turn
for CO2 reductions in the countries which had not been bound by any commitments
of Kyoto Protocol. As a result, GDP dynamics would decrease by 0.73 % and imports
would fall by 0.67 %. For other countries, such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Japan
and the USA, the loss in GDP would be comparable to this suffered by the member
states of the EU (see table no. 2).
Table no. 3 Cost of 30% reduction CO2 till 2020.
China Indie Russia Brasilia USA UE Japan
% change
of GDP
-0,79 -0,72 -0,88 -0,79 -0,71 -0,73 -0,76
% change
of import
-0,82 -0,59 -1,06 -0,9 -0,49 -0,67 -0,8
Source: The Potencial Global and Developing Country Impact of Alternative Emission Cuts and Accompanying Mechanisms for Post Copenhagen Process, H.Tian, J. Whalley, NBER 2010, s. 27.
Taking into account only the expenses which countries have to cover for the
reduction of CO2 emissions into atmosphere, it becomes transparent that such
a solution requires an even distribution of costs on main emitters and is neutral from
the perspective of economic security. Nevertheless, countries have not yet reached
an agreement on this issue, which may be down to the fact that neither the benefits
arising from the export of technologies to Northern countries, nor the strategic
advantages of technological and capital engagement in energy sectors of the swiftly
developing economies of China, India and Brazil have been taken into consideration
in the model.
46
Green economy and RES development
The economic stagnation due to economic crises of 2008 in various countries
has brought about changes in their development strategies – a path towards the
green economy and RES has become an important part of their economic policies. For
example, in 2010 the Japanese government explicitly acknowledged the environment
as one of the three pillars of the country’s response to the crisis, together with
employment rate and economic growth.16 The OECD recommends the Green
Economy considering that it enables sustainable economic growth, social stability as
well as “safeguards the environment and conserves resources for future
generations”17.The European Union estimates that the development of RES will
provide an increase in employment rate and GDP. It is expected that by 2020 even
1.1% of GDP per year in Europe will come from the RES development18. Secondly,
thanks to a wider use of RES regions with high population growth, such as Africa,
countries will have a chance to boost their development19. A telling example comes
from Ethiopia. According to the Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy
of 2011, the Ethiopian GDP per capita will have increased by 475% by 2030 due to the
development of the green economy with RES as one of its key elements. It will allow
to move Ethiopia from the group of the least developed to the middle-income
countries20. Finally, the rising global demand for RES will bring many opportunities for
the countries that are most advanced in research and development of Renewable
Energy Technology (RET). The upcoming ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has
encouraged R&D in this area, resulting in the significant increase of research
16
I. Capozza, , Greening Growth in Japan, “OECD Environment Working Papers”, No. 28/2011, p. 11. 17
OECD, Putting Green Growth at the Heart of Development Summary for Policymakers, March 2013, p. 2. 18
The impact of renewable energy policy on economic growth and employment in the European Union, European Commission, April 2009, p.5. 19
L’Afrique et les energies renouvelables. La voie vers la croissance durable, IRENA 2013, p.31. 20
OECD, Putting Green Growth at the Heart of Development Summary for Policymakers, OECD, March 2013, p. 9
47
patents21. So far Japan, Germany, the United States and France have been the most
innovative countries in the research and development of CCMT22.
Table no. 4 Number of CCMT patents.
Country Number of patents
Japan 691751
USA 423187
Germany 334119
Korea 167001
France 126924
Source: I. Haščič, N. Johnstone, F. Watson, Ch. Kaminker, Climate Policy and Technological Innovation and Transfer, OECD Environment Working Papers No. 30, 2010 r., s. 24.
One cannot help but agree with L. Svensson that the introduction of clean
technologies may lead to reconciliation between the need to protect climate and the
world economic growth. It may also result in a new economic growth, creation of new
jobs, the development of a new industry and services, thus inducing the development
of agriculture and forestry23. Taking into account the nature of the regime, the
economic growth will be observed in Northern countries.
Therefore, exactly the above mentioned countries – Japan, the USA, Germany,
Korean and France may become the most important beneficiaries if the world
demand for RES increases. They may improve the deficit on the current account as
well as competitiveness of their economies. Apart from that, investments in RET also
generate high value-added jobs in these economies. Also development of RES could
strengthen global economic security in financial and food dimension. From global
perspective soaring prices of energy resources also affect the stability of the global
financial system, thus encouraging high liquidity on the financial markets. This led to
the debt crisis in 1980s and in 2008 triggered the inflation and caused the financial
crisis. Today high liquidity on the financial market is generated by oil exporters
21
E. Lanzi, I. Haščič , N. Johnstone, The Determinants of Invention in Electricity Generation Technologies: A Patent Data Analysis, “OECD Environment Working Papers”, No. 45/2012, p. 9. 22
Ibidem, p. 11. 23
L. E. Svensson, Combating Climate Change. A Transatlantic Approach to Common Solutions,2008, p. 92.
48
causing a considerable increase in the financial system risk. Exorbitant oil and gas
prices enabled the establishment of National Investment Funds which invest oil and
gas export revenues abroad. Total assets of National Investment Funds were
estimated at USD 5.3 billion in 2011, including USD 3.1 billion worth of assets
accumulated from oil and gas export24. Another destabilizing factor to the financial
markets is a high level of speculation on oil prices. Secondly, considerable price
fluctuations and periods of high gas and mineral oil prices affect food prices, which
increase as a result of higher production costs but also because part of it is used for
biofuel production. This causes substantial political disturbances, in particular in
countries with low economic development, which in most cases have also weak
political systems, and leads to threats to stability and international security that
manifests itself in social unrests, changes of government, separatist tendencies and
military conflicts. Therefore, the development of RES has a positive impact on
economic security with the exclusion of biofuels.
Volatile prices of energy resources affect the economic security of the
importing countries but also the exporters of oil and gas. In the case of importers,
high volatility of prices has a negative impact on the stability of the exchange rate,
balance of payments and inflation, thereby hindering the making of monetary policy,
which in turn affects the conditions of conducting competitive business activities.
They also have an impact on high energy prices on domestic markets, which makes
the economy less competitive, ergo poses a threat to the economic security.
Development of RES could bring serious problems for example to Russian economy
because more than 40% of Russia's budget comes from oil-and-gas related duties and
taxes25.
For the exporters, on the other hand, considerable fluctuations in oil and gas
prices mean no opportunities for a balanced government budget planning and
serious problems in case of a dramatic price drop. Hence, symptoms of Dutch disease
24
http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings, 27.08.2013. 25
R. Gold, D. Gilbert, U.S. Is Overtaking Russia as Largest Oil-and-Gas Producer, October 2, 2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303492504579111360245276476.html?KEYWORDS=Russia, 12.09.2013.
49
have been witnessed in most of oil and gas exporters across the world. If margins in
oil and gas upstream sector fall, the exporters will have to face serious economic
problems and will become less important to the world economy26. To overcome this
obstacle most of the major exporters of oil and gas will have to open their economies
and import technologies. They will face an urgent need to change the structure of
GDP production to find a new source of economic revenues and make their economy
more competitive. Otherwise they won’t be able to restore the balance of payments
equilibrium. Moreover, they will experience high inflation due to the gradual
weakening of their national currencies.
Summing up, the most important impact of RES development is to make the
economic development independent from hydrocarbon prices. Hence, a long-term
transformation of the energy market, in which RES will play a central role, will enable
a stable and sustainable economic development as well as economic security. The
economic effects of RES development will be positive for all countries. However, the
advantages will not be proportional for all countries. According to economization
process, the economic crises put in the first place in security agenda problems of
development. It gives unique opportunity to include RES development as one of the
economic security instruments pushing global economy towards growth and
strengthening economic security.
Development of RES as a chance for climate protection
The potential impact of RES on global oil and gas market and the world
economy may be multi-faceted. It is clear that the development of RES will affect oil
and gas prices in the future. Yet, it is very difficult to discuss both the timespan and
the probable scope of this influence. In the analysis based on econometric models,
which forecast world economic trends up to 2020 or 2030, the influence of RES on oil
and gas market, in terms of both prices and demand, is rather imperceptible. Today it
26
For Gulf Countries Council oil revenues represented 60–88 per cent of government revenues during 2005–2009, and oil share in export revenues was 76–95 per cent in 2008, except in the United Arab Emirates, where it was 43 per cent. The GCC: increasingly diversified economies, Samba Report Series, Office of the Chief Economist, Samba Financial Group, April 2010, p. 5.
50
is justified to claim that there is no correlation between the RES development and
hydrocarbon demand or pricing27. In the future the growing significance of RES for
the energy market will bring significant changes, including the distinct correlation
between the development of RES and oil and gas prices. It will strengthen the
economic security of the countries developing RES. Also the impact of RES on climate
change and reduction of hydrocarbon use by exporters in order to control importers
is today rather limited. However, even today, the development of RES is pushing the
global economy towards the economic growth, which can be perceived as a very
positive outcome from the perspective of economic security. The dynamic of RES
development is very high in 2011 only 13% of energy of the world primary energy
supply came from RES. Nowadays most of the 74% of this value is covered by biofuels
and waste, 18% comes from hydroelectric power plants, 1% from the sun and 2%
from wind power. This means that less than half the energy coming from RES
contributes to reducing import dependency. Meanwhile between 2005 and 2011 the
wind power generation rose by 333%, providing 447 TWh in 2011. In the same
period, the fastest growing electricity-generating industry was photovoltaic (PV) – its
production increased by 1550%, up to 65 TWh in 201128. The scope of impact of RES
on economic security will depend on the following variables:
technological progress in renewable energy technology,
oil, gas and coal prices on the world markets,
economies of scale,
political decisions – the manner of subsidizing this type of power generation,
determining the framework of cooperation between the distribution network
operators and the investors and creators of RES systems,
economic situation of various countries – the level of dependency on the
imported energy carriers and the budgetary situation of those states,
27
IEA research indicates that “there is now no correlation between wind output and gas demand, an increasing wind market share neither amplifies nor weakens existing gas demand patterns”. Irene Vos, The Impact of Wind Power on European Natural Gas Markets, International Energy Agency 2013, p.42 28
Authors on the basis of IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, OECD/IEA, p. 15-20.
51
acceptance or rejection of global regulations on CO2 emissions imposing the
obligation for the reduction of emissions on all countries.
Thanks to RES, countries could be able to fulfill demand on energy and save
the climate because of economic reasons which are more understandable for all
societies. It is rather difficult to expect that climate change problem will be
securitized putting the issues on the top in countries’ policy and strategy agenda.
Any chance for climate protection?
To sum up, the reason why it is difficult to establish an international climate
protection regime does not lie in the aspects of the economy but above all in the
different perception of energy and climate issues by citizens, which results in
recognizing energy issues by leading emitters as standing higher in the hierarchy of
objectives pursued by countries than climate change. Taking into account the
complex nature of security issues subject to securitization and economization
processes, the key to climate protection is to put forward solutions that enable to
extract cheap energy and protect the climate. Renewable energies, photovoltaics and
wind energy in particular, fulfill these requirements. The crisis of 2008 gives
a chance to include in the policies and strategies of countries the green economy,
which provides for the development of renewable energy systems. The prices of coal,
oil and gas, i.e. the traditional energy carriers, will have a substantial effect on the
cost-effectiveness of these kinds of solutions.
Drawing on past experience in the field of international relations,
a dependence on imports of gas and oil poses a serious threat to countries due to the
fact that such interrelation is being used to exert pressure on these countries and as
a result they strive to become self-sufficient or diversify energy supplies and sources.
Owing to this fact, the development of RES as a part of energy self-sufficiency
becomes a highly desirable item on any energy balance. The multilateral actions that
have been undertaken have a very limited effect on the policies of countries, which
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means that the prospect of establishing common international regulations on the
reduction of CO2 emissions that indirectly enable to control one of the most
important economy sectors, i.e. the energy sector29 seems unlikely. This problem
became apparent during the discussion on mechanisms to control emissions, when
a proposition was made to introduce other than national verification mechanisms
that met with strong opposition from China. Fear of handing over control over the
energy sector to international institutions, dominated by Northern countries, is not
unsubstantiated. In fact, owing to the introduction of emission reductions, this
mechanism makes it possible to lower the competitiveness of economies, above all of
such countries as India, China and Brazil.
It is highly unlikely that countries will reach an agreement on global reduction
of CO2 emissions in the near future, which is due to the fact that climate issues are
placed lower on the hierarchy of objectives of most countries than energy issues. The
key to climate protection is to introduce innovative renewable technologies, the use
of which will strengthen the stability of the global economic development, which is
now exposed to the negative influence of volatile oil and gas prices. The introduction
of these technologies will also constitute a powerful impulse for the global
development, which raises great expectations, considering the current economic
recession. The most advanced countries in terms of this technology will be increasing
their level of economic security. One could assume that climate change will lead to
a catastrophe comparable to the 1974 oil price shock, which will move climate issues
up the hierarchy of countries’ objectives, however, taking into account even the
worst-case scenarios this is still a matter of decades.
Krzysztof Księżopolski – Assistant Professor in Institute of International Relations of
the University of Warsaw, expert of Centre for Political Analysis of the University of
Warsaw
29
More on the strategic meaning of the energy sector, see: K. Proninska, Zagrożenia i wyzwania dla globalnego bezpieczeństwa energetycznego, [in:]: K. M. Księżopolski, Problemy bezpieczeństwa wewnętrznego i bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego, Warszawa 2009, p. 59-92.
53
Abstract
Lack of progress has been the impulse to look into the causes of impasse in
establishment of the International Climate Protection Regime. The present paper
deals with the process of securitization and economization of security that can help
to clarify the reasons behind this stagnation. Problems in international regulation
does not lie in the aspects of the economy but above all in the different perception of
energy and climate issues by citizens, which results in recognizing energy issues by
leading emitters as standing higher in the hierarchy of objectives pursued by
countries, than climate change. In this situation it will be very difficult to establish
limits of CO2 emission. It seems that Green Economy and RES development thanks
technological progress is the chance for climate protection rather because of
economic reasons than ecologic ones.
WPŁYW SEKURYTYZACJI I EKONOMIZACJI BEZPIECZEŃSTWA NA USTANAWIANIE
MIĘDZYNARODOWEGO REŻIMU OCHRONY KLIMATU
Abstrakt
Zagrożenia dla państw oraz całego życia na Ziemi wynikające z zachodzących zmian
klimatu stanowią istotne zagadnienie polityki międzynarodowej. Do dziś nie udało się
ustanowić powszechnego systemu ograniczającego emisję CO2, ergo chroniącego
klimat. Autor, odwołując się do procesu sekurytyzacji i ekonomizacji bezpieczeństwa,
poszukuje przyczyn impasu w pracach nad stworzeniem międzynarodowego reżimu
ochrony klimatu. Jego zdaniem problemy w ustanowieniu reżimu nie leżą w sferze
gospodarczej ale przede wszystkim w różnym postrzegania problemów energii
i klimatu przez obywateli. Autor uważa, iż decydująca jest percepcja problemów
energetycznych przez państwa będące wiodącymi emitentami CO2 – ich rozwiązanie
stoi bowiem wyżej w hierarchii celów realizowanych przez państwa niż kwestia zmian
klimatycznych. Autor sądzi ponadto, że idea zielonej gospodarki i odnawialne źródła
energii mogą dzięki postępowi technologicznemu zmieniać bilanse energetyczne
państw i dzięki temu stanowią szansę dla ochrony klimatu.