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35 Krzysztof M. Księżopolski THE IMPACT OF SECURITIZATION AND ECONOMIZATION OF SECURITY ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION REGIME Keywords: international climate protection regime, securitization, economization, economic security, energy security, climate protection, RES, green economy Climate protection is one of the key challenges that humanity faces today. This is not only due to the negative impact of climate change on economic development or stability of political systems, but also due to the fact that traditional energy extraction from coal, oil and gas energy sources has to be restricted because of CO 2 emission, the effect of which are rising temperatures. This means that the search for new energy sources with zero or low CO 2 emission will soon become requisite. Historical data indicate that economic development is accompanied by a rise in energy demand. The amount of energy used by people is going up systematically, up until 8000 years B.C. mankind consumed 2.5*10*18J, in the year 1950 this amount rose to 2002*10*18J 1 . In the last 20 years this growth has become even more dynamic; the total primary energy demand reached 8,779 Mtoe in 1990, however, in 2010 it amounted to as much as 12,730 Mtoe. What is more, forecasts indicate that in 2035 the demand will reach 17,197 Mtoe 2 . Technological advances resulting in the use of new energy carriers, which means the transition from wood to coal and further to oil and gas, enabled an increase in labour efficiency and the development of production techniques which cannot be carried out only by means of human labour. One cannot help but agree with Dennis Meadows that the process of economic development is in fact the process of consumption of ever growing amounts of 1 I.G. Simmons, Global Enviromenal History 10000BC to AD 2000, p. 10. 2 World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA, p. 552.

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35

Krzysztof M. Księżopolski

THE IMPACT OF SECURITIZATION AND ECONOMIZATION OF SECURITY ON THE

ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION REGIME

Keywords:

international climate protection regime, securitization, economization, economic

security, energy security, climate protection, RES, green economy

Climate protection is one of the key challenges that humanity faces today. This

is not only due to the negative impact of climate change on economic development

or stability of political systems, but also due to the fact that traditional energy

extraction from coal, oil and gas energy sources has to be restricted because of CO2

emission, the effect of which are rising temperatures. This means that the search for

new energy sources with zero or low CO2 emission will soon become requisite.

Historical data indicate that economic development is accompanied by a rise in

energy demand. The amount of energy used by people is going up systematically, up

until 8000 years B.C. mankind consumed 2.5*10*18J, in the year 1950 this amount

rose to 2002*10*18J1. In the last 20 years this growth has become even more

dynamic; the total primary energy demand reached 8,779 Mtoe in 1990, however, in

2010 it amounted to as much as 12,730 Mtoe. What is more, forecasts indicate that

in 2035 the demand will reach 17,197 Mtoe2. Technological advances resulting in the

use of new energy carriers, which means the transition from wood to coal and further

to oil and gas, enabled an increase in labour efficiency and the development of

production techniques which cannot be carried out only by means of human labour.

One cannot help but agree with Dennis Meadows that the process of economic

development is in fact the process of consumption of ever growing amounts of

1 I.G. Simmons, Global Enviromenal History 10000BC to AD 2000, p. 10.

2 World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA, p. 552.

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energy in order to increase human labour efficiency3. In the past, due to

technological advance, the use of new energy carriers used to cause a strong impulse

for development. Main problem in the case of leading energy sources has always

been the difficulty to meet the demand, an example of which can be ancient Rome,

struggling with timber deficiency. In modern days the issue of supply has been the

subject of studies and analyses known as peak oil. Until recently the notion prevailed

that the growing energy demand will not be satisfied by an increased oil and gas

extraction due to the lack of new resources or lack of technical means to extract

those that have already been discovered. The prospect of high oil and gas prices led

to the development of technologies that enabled an economically viable extraction of

resources which until recently were technologically unavailable e.g. shale gas and the

discovery of new resources. As a result, the restrictions in demand have been

postponed in time. However, a new restriction connected with the current world

energy balance has appeared, namely climate change. As early as in 1988 nations

forming IPCC4 acknowledged the necessity to take interest in climate issues. The aim

was to create a consensus among scientists worldwide dealing with climate change

and its consequences. This was supposed to result in establishing a strategy aiming to

solve this problem. The effect of IPCC efforts was the signing of an international

treaty known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) in 1992 which set out a negotiating framework for the so called

Conferences of the Parties (COP), in which all states participate. The Convention aims

to stabilize greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would

stop dangerous interference with the climate system. As result of the negotiation

process, which took place as part of the Framework Convention, was the signing of an

additional protocol referred to as the Kyoto Protocol. After long negotiations on

November 18, 2004 Russia ratified the protocol which became effective on February

16, 2005. The ratification of the protocol does not mean, however, that the

restrictions on CO2 emissions are set for all states. Despite efforts and elapsing time,

3 D. H. Meadows, D. l. Meadows, J. Randers, W. W. Behrens, The Limits to Growth, New York 1972, p. 87.

4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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an international climate protection regime based on the commitment of all states to

reduce emissions has not been created since 2005. The lack of progress has been the

impulse to look into the causes of this impasse. The present paper deals with the

process of securitization and economization of security that can help to clarify the

reasons behind this stagnation. The author is applying innovative methods to address

the issue. First method is based on the framework of security analysis established by

Copenhagen School. In this case this method gives a chance to answer what is

consider as security matters and what is not and thanks to that it helps to explain

what is one of the top priorities in security agenda of countries. Second method is

less popular but also useful. In the paper it could explain why the economic security is

higher in security agenda in Poland than climate threat.

Securitization and economization of security

The process of securitization is based on the premise that an issue goes

through three stages known as securitization. During the first stage the issue is not

subject to public debate, the second stage occurs when the issue is subject to public

debate and is referred to as politicized. In the third stage the issue becomes

a securitized issue and is considered by the Copenhagen School to be a threat to

security. As a result of securitization, a politicized issue, an issue in the second stage,

poses a threat to a nation, group, a country’s sovereignty or economic life. As it

transpires, securitization is a social process, i.e. a process which requires the

participation and interest of citizens. As a consequence of the securitization process,

an issue which was not considered an issue of security and would not be placed high

on the hierarchy of the country’s objectives, becomes an issue of security.

A securitized issue is an issue that requires prompt actions on the part of the

government that go beyond standard measures, including the use of force. This

process happens through the actions of governments, political and military elites as

well as civil society that are the agents of securitization5. In democratic countries

5 B. Buzan, O. Weaver, J. de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder 1998, p. 23.

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securitization occurs most commonly through governmental actions as governments

possess democratic licence which gives them advantage over the other agents of the

securitization process. Securitization can lead to legitimizing actions which intrude on

the life of civil societies and alter them to such an extent that would be unacceptable

in normal conditions. Globally this can mean the use of military force to pursue own

goals. Also a reverse phenomenon called desecuritization can occur which consists in

the fact that a given issue stops being a threat to security6. On the other hand, the

process of security economization results in growing importance of economic factors

to security. This process is influenced by processes taking place in international

relations and domestic affairs. These processes are i.a. scientific and technical

advance, the process of globalization and interdependence between countries, the

competition for resources growing between countries. Economization means that

countries need to acknowledge the sphere of economy as the scene for rivalry and

competition, as an area in which it is possible and justified to use force to pursue own

goals. The process of security economization leads to the situation in which the

importance of economic security in politics and strategies of countries rises and

becomes as vital as military security. Economic security is defined as the unimpeded

functioning of economies as well as sustaining a comparative balance between the

economies of other countries7. There are four dimensions of economic security:

financial dimension and dimensions of resources and energy, food and access to

clean water8. They are intertwined and form logically connected sets of threats.

Securitization of climate change

In the case of climate change the securitization process in most countries has

not taken place due to the fact that neither prompt actions are being taken, nor

extraordinary measures such as force are being used. A group of states forming the

6 H. Stritzel, Towards a Theory of Securitization: Copenhagen and Beyond, “European Journal of International

Relations” 2007, t. 13, nr 3, p. 357. 7 K.M. Księżopolski, Ekonomiczne zagrożenia bezpieczeństwa państwa: metody i środki przeciwdziałania,

Warszawa 2004, p. 39-54. 8 K.M. Księżopolski, Bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2011, p. 27-35.

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Alliance of Small Island States, AOSIS is an exception and is already experiencing

direct consequences of climate change to the extent which poses a threat to their

functioning. However, in most countries the issues of climate change have not

reached the third stage and thus have not become a threat to security. Nonetheless,

the whole process is ongoing, which becomes evident when one takes into account

the constant attempts of scientists, politicians, some types of media and non-

governmental organizations to draw the societies’ attention to this issue. The

phenomenon of climate change is difficult to grasp by citizens and what is more, its

effects are not spread in an even manner geographically or temporally across the

world. This particular feature of the phenomenon substantially hinders the process of

securitization. However, another issue connected with climate change has been

subject to the process of securitization, namely energy. In public debate energy issues

are being isolated from the notion of economic security and start functioning as

independent entities. It is due to the fact that some countries have used the import

of hydrocarbons as an instrument of foreign policy since 1970s, the assumption that

a reliable supplies of cheap energy is indispensable to ensure economic growth as

well as alleviate the negative impact of rising energy prices on consumers. This

impact is visible at petrol stations, in electricity and heating prices as well the prices

of foodstuffs that also rise when hydrocarbon prices go up. Due to their impact on

the whole economy, energy issues affect the level of satisfaction of basic social

needs. As a consequence, society perceives energy issues as easier to grasp and

understand, and thus securitize them.

Therefore, energy issues have been securitized, i.e. unlike climate issues they

have become threats to security. This means serious consequences for the policies

and strategies of states, which place energy issues higher on the hierarchy of

objectives, thus giving them priority over climate issues. This situation is also affected

by the lack of precise, conclusive and coherent analyses concerning the impact of

climate change on the world we live in. For instance, the report The Economics of

Climate Change presents forecasts on the impact of the amount of CO2 in the

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atmosphere on temperature levels. Differences in forecasts are apparent, e.g.

depending on the research temperature can by the concentration of 400 ppm of CO2,

change from 0.6 % to 4.9 %, ergo the discrepancy amounts to as many as 4.3 degrees,

by 1000 ppm of CO2 temperature may rise from 2.2 to 17.1 degrees, which means

a difference of almost 15 degrees (see table no. 1)9.

Table no. 1.

Stabilisation level (ppm CO2 equivalent)

Temperature increase at equilibrium relative to pre-industrial ( C)

IPCC TAR 2001 Hadley Center

Ensemble Eleven Studies

400 0,8-2,4 1,3-2,8 0,6-4,9

450 1,0-3,1 1,7-3,7 0,8-6,4

500 1,3-3,8 2,0-4,5 1,0-7,9

550 1,5-4,4 2,4-5,3 1,2-9,1

650 1,8-5,5 2,9-6,6 1,5-11,4

750 2,2-6,4 3,4-7,7 1,7-13,3

1000 2,8-8,3 4,4-9,9 2,2-17,1 Source: N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change, STERN REVIEW, Cambrige 2007, p. 12.

To discover the relationship between the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere

and rising temperatures is one of the problems which are difficult to measure.

Another research problem which defies a clear answer is to what extent the rise in

temperatures will affect changes occurring in nature. Summarizing the presented

analyses on the impact of climate change on social life based on econometric models

carries a high risk of error and does not provide conclusive arguments to securitize

climate protection. Apparently, the researchers who have been dealing with this

issue for years are not certain as to the scale of the negative impact. This problem is

intensified by the negative past experience with forecasts showing the relationship of

man with nature and its consequences e.g. the failed U Thant’s report presented on

May 26, 1969 on a session of the UN General Assembly which contained a statement

that unless prompt actions are taken mankind will become extinct in the next 10

years. Hence, the cause for the lack of securitization of climate issues is more

9 N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. STERN REVIEW, Cambridge 2007, p.12.

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complicated and cannot be merely put down to the unwillingness of countries and

governments but to the lack of consumers’ conviction.

To sum up, there is a tension between the today’s power industry and climate

protection as the rise in demand for energy is satisfied from non-renewable, mainly

coal, oil and gas sources. Despite the fact that coal combustion results in immense

CO2 emissions, between 1990 and 2010 CO2 the consumption rose from 2 231 Mtoe

to 3 474 accounting for 25,4 % to 27,2 % TPED10 respectively. From the perspective of

climate protection this is the worst of possible solutions, however, from the point of

view of the hierarchy of countries’ objectives, which is to satisfy energy needs, i.e.

provide cheap and reliable energy that enables economic development and achieving

economic security, this is a natural and reasonable measure. Hence, countries such

as Poland or China do not accede to the international regulations which set forth

a further reduction of emissions. A solution to this contradiction between the current

energy policy of some countries and climate protection can be the development of

the renewable energy industry, which results in zero or low emissions. Nonetheless,

in public debate it very often comes up that the development of RES is costly and may

cause the weakening of economies’ competitiveness. Problems of managing the

energy, lack of supply stability and excessively high costs of connection to grid are

also touched upon. Such assumptions neglect vital elements that weigh in favour of

the development of RES, thus representing a narrow, sector-oriented perception of

the phenomenon and ignoring strategic planning and the dynamics of technological

change.

Security economization and climate change

The economization of security leads to the emergence of the notion of

economic security, which in the course of research has developed the tools for the

analysis of economic security level. The issues of climate change and economic

security will be discussed in two contexts. Firstly, how climate change will affect

10

World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA, p. 552.

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economic security and what the impact of international regulations concerning

climate protection on economic security will be. Analyses on the influence of climate

change on economic development and economic security carry a high risk of error as

all long-term forecasts, which does not only affect the process of securitization,

a problem outlined above, but also influences countries’ strategies. Stern’s report

stated that if no actions are taken, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be

equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, for the foreseeable future. If

a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage

could rise to 20% of GDP or more (…)11. The authors of the report forecast in more

detail that temperature will rise between 2 and 3 degrees, which will cause a loss of

0.6% up to 1.4% in GDP in the most probable version of the forecast. The grimmest

but also least possible scenarios show losses of 4.0% up to 9.1% of world GDP. By the

year 2100 in India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East the loss will reach up to

2.5%. As to the considerable climate change scenario India, Southeast Asia will lose

3.5%, Africa and the Middle East 2.7% of GDE (see table no. 3)12.

Table no. 2 Cost of GDP losses according to PAGE 2002.

Change

of temperature

Mean expected cost 5th

percentile 95th

percentile

2°C 0.6% 0.2% 4.0%

3°C 1.4% 0.3% 9.1%

4°C 2.6% 0.4% 15.5%

5°C 4.5% 0.6% 23.3%

Source: N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. STERN REVIEW, Cambridge 2007, s. 295.

The results presented in Stern’s report have been contested and questioned13.

One cannot help but agree with Wiliam Nordhaus that the report does not give an

answer to the most burning question: how quickly, if and when to introduce

11

N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. STERN REVIEW, Cambridge 2007, p. 575. 12

Ibidem. 13

W. D. Nordhaus, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge 2006, p. 2.

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regulations on climate14. It also has to be stressed that the presented studies and

attempts to create a model neglect the aspect of expenditure as they are based solely

on an analysis of income. Due to this fact, the usefulness of the report consists in

presenting some tendencies, trends and possible but not reliable financial

calculations. This observation hinders the analysis of climate change impacts on

economic security. To sum up, the effect of climate change on economic growth and

economic security will not be the same for all countries; one can distinguish countries

that will be less affected by these changes or even will benefit from it, such as Russia.

Today there are also countries that in a few years time may disappear from the world

political map as a result of the flooding of their territories. In 2007, the Maldives

turned to India and requested that they take in their citizens under such

circumstances. However, there are also other costs that are crucial to the main

emitters of CO2, the most influential economic and military powers, namely the costs

of maintaining international stability under the circumstances that in the densely

populated areas of the world, e.g. Africa, crop production will drop even by 50% in

some regions. In general, depending on the adopted model in the populous countries

of the South, a fall in crop production will reach from 10 to 15% at 550 units of ppm15.

This situation might make it necessary to increase defence expenses and

development aid, which will affect the economic development of those countries.

On the other hand, a considerable effect on the economic security of countries

is due to the adopted climate protection system which is based on assigning emission

levels in terms of absolute values for each country depending on the current emission

level and requires introducing relevant reductions. The adoption of this kind of

regulations does not include other factors, such as population, territory and CO2

consumption rate. Current statistical data shows that China is the biggest emitter of

CO2 in absolute values. However, if one compares emission levels to population

numbers, i.e. per capita CO2 emissions or if one relates them to the size of the

territory, the result will be significantly different. If the criterion of per capita

14

Ibidem, p.21. 15

N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review, Cambridge 2007, p. 71.

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emissions is applied to such countries as the USA, Russia, Australia, they have

a higher per capita emission than China. On the other hand, if one takes as a criterion

emission levels per square km of a given country’s territory, then even in such

countries as South Korea, Japan, Germany, Poland and Italy the CO2 emissions are

higher than in China. CO2 emission values adopted in absolute terms as a point of

reference for the reductions give an advantage to those countries that are

competitive (Northern countries) and as a consequence, instead of producing goods,

the manufacturing of which would lead to high emissions, the countries can rely on

import. In order to create a more just and effective ratio, on the basis of which the

tools for action can be made, one needs to use as a point of reference the CO2

consumption rate. This method consists in assigning to each good a certain amount of

emission, which depends on the amount of emission needed to manufacture it. This

way one can determine the amount of CO2 emissions for each country and start the

reduction from this level. Contrary to the method that is now being used, the

alternative one takes into account the relationship between CO2 consumption and

emission. The current method causes the member states of the EU to stop the

production of goods resulting in high CO2 emissions on their territories and start

importing these products from the countries that are not bound by emission

restrictions (countries that are not included in annex 1 to the Kyoto Protocol, e.g.

from China). As a consequence of this phenomenon one can observe the dynamic rise

in emissions in Southern countries and the observance of the emission reduction

criteria by Northern countries. Great Britain can serve as an example: if one relies on

the current method, it becomes apparent that CO2 emissions have declined, by

means of the second method one will observe a rise in CO2 consumption.

In conclusion, a better method from the perspective of economic interests of

Southern countries, China, India etc. and the actual long-term climate protection,

would be to base the legislation pertaining to the reduction of CO2 on the CO2

consumption ratio in a given country. By applying the criterion of CO2 consumption

the use of the strategy of transfer of production to other countries would be

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prevented and the climate would be more effectively protected from the negative

human interference, thus providing an incentive for producers to use less harmful

technologies. As a leader in the protection of the world climate, the European Union

promotes regulations which are optimal from the economic point of view, thus

increasing pressure on Southern countries.

The European Union declared to introduce unilateral commitments for the

reduction of CO2 emissions by 30% by 2020 in relation to the base year, 1990, in turn

for CO2 reductions in the countries which had not been bound by any commitments

of Kyoto Protocol. As a result, GDP dynamics would decrease by 0.73 % and imports

would fall by 0.67 %. For other countries, such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Japan

and the USA, the loss in GDP would be comparable to this suffered by the member

states of the EU (see table no. 2).

Table no. 3 Cost of 30% reduction CO2 till 2020.

China Indie Russia Brasilia USA UE Japan

% change

of GDP

-0,79 -0,72 -0,88 -0,79 -0,71 -0,73 -0,76

% change

of import

-0,82 -0,59 -1,06 -0,9 -0,49 -0,67 -0,8

Source: The Potencial Global and Developing Country Impact of Alternative Emission Cuts and Accompanying Mechanisms for Post Copenhagen Process, H.Tian, J. Whalley, NBER 2010, s. 27.

Taking into account only the expenses which countries have to cover for the

reduction of CO2 emissions into atmosphere, it becomes transparent that such

a solution requires an even distribution of costs on main emitters and is neutral from

the perspective of economic security. Nevertheless, countries have not yet reached

an agreement on this issue, which may be down to the fact that neither the benefits

arising from the export of technologies to Northern countries, nor the strategic

advantages of technological and capital engagement in energy sectors of the swiftly

developing economies of China, India and Brazil have been taken into consideration

in the model.

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Green economy and RES development

The economic stagnation due to economic crises of 2008 in various countries

has brought about changes in their development strategies – a path towards the

green economy and RES has become an important part of their economic policies. For

example, in 2010 the Japanese government explicitly acknowledged the environment

as one of the three pillars of the country’s response to the crisis, together with

employment rate and economic growth.16 The OECD recommends the Green

Economy considering that it enables sustainable economic growth, social stability as

well as “safeguards the environment and conserves resources for future

generations”17.The European Union estimates that the development of RES will

provide an increase in employment rate and GDP. It is expected that by 2020 even

1.1% of GDP per year in Europe will come from the RES development18. Secondly,

thanks to a wider use of RES regions with high population growth, such as Africa,

countries will have a chance to boost their development19. A telling example comes

from Ethiopia. According to the Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy

of 2011, the Ethiopian GDP per capita will have increased by 475% by 2030 due to the

development of the green economy with RES as one of its key elements. It will allow

to move Ethiopia from the group of the least developed to the middle-income

countries20. Finally, the rising global demand for RES will bring many opportunities for

the countries that are most advanced in research and development of Renewable

Energy Technology (RET). The upcoming ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has

encouraged R&D in this area, resulting in the significant increase of research

16

I. Capozza, , Greening Growth in Japan, “OECD Environment Working Papers”, No. 28/2011, p. 11. 17

OECD, Putting Green Growth at the Heart of Development Summary for Policymakers, March 2013, p. 2. 18

The impact of renewable energy policy on economic growth and employment in the European Union, European Commission, April 2009, p.5. 19

L’Afrique et les energies renouvelables. La voie vers la croissance durable, IRENA 2013, p.31. 20

OECD, Putting Green Growth at the Heart of Development Summary for Policymakers, OECD, March 2013, p. 9

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patents21. So far Japan, Germany, the United States and France have been the most

innovative countries in the research and development of CCMT22.

Table no. 4 Number of CCMT patents.

Country Number of patents

Japan 691751

USA 423187

Germany 334119

Korea 167001

France 126924

Source: I. Haščič, N. Johnstone, F. Watson, Ch. Kaminker, Climate Policy and Technological Innovation and Transfer, OECD Environment Working Papers No. 30, 2010 r., s. 24.

One cannot help but agree with L. Svensson that the introduction of clean

technologies may lead to reconciliation between the need to protect climate and the

world economic growth. It may also result in a new economic growth, creation of new

jobs, the development of a new industry and services, thus inducing the development

of agriculture and forestry23. Taking into account the nature of the regime, the

economic growth will be observed in Northern countries.

Therefore, exactly the above mentioned countries – Japan, the USA, Germany,

Korean and France may become the most important beneficiaries if the world

demand for RES increases. They may improve the deficit on the current account as

well as competitiveness of their economies. Apart from that, investments in RET also

generate high value-added jobs in these economies. Also development of RES could

strengthen global economic security in financial and food dimension. From global

perspective soaring prices of energy resources also affect the stability of the global

financial system, thus encouraging high liquidity on the financial markets. This led to

the debt crisis in 1980s and in 2008 triggered the inflation and caused the financial

crisis. Today high liquidity on the financial market is generated by oil exporters

21

E. Lanzi, I. Haščič , N. Johnstone, The Determinants of Invention in Electricity Generation Technologies: A Patent Data Analysis, “OECD Environment Working Papers”, No. 45/2012, p. 9. 22

Ibidem, p. 11. 23

L. E. Svensson, Combating Climate Change. A Transatlantic Approach to Common Solutions,2008, p. 92.

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causing a considerable increase in the financial system risk. Exorbitant oil and gas

prices enabled the establishment of National Investment Funds which invest oil and

gas export revenues abroad. Total assets of National Investment Funds were

estimated at USD 5.3 billion in 2011, including USD 3.1 billion worth of assets

accumulated from oil and gas export24. Another destabilizing factor to the financial

markets is a high level of speculation on oil prices. Secondly, considerable price

fluctuations and periods of high gas and mineral oil prices affect food prices, which

increase as a result of higher production costs but also because part of it is used for

biofuel production. This causes substantial political disturbances, in particular in

countries with low economic development, which in most cases have also weak

political systems, and leads to threats to stability and international security that

manifests itself in social unrests, changes of government, separatist tendencies and

military conflicts. Therefore, the development of RES has a positive impact on

economic security with the exclusion of biofuels.

Volatile prices of energy resources affect the economic security of the

importing countries but also the exporters of oil and gas. In the case of importers,

high volatility of prices has a negative impact on the stability of the exchange rate,

balance of payments and inflation, thereby hindering the making of monetary policy,

which in turn affects the conditions of conducting competitive business activities.

They also have an impact on high energy prices on domestic markets, which makes

the economy less competitive, ergo poses a threat to the economic security.

Development of RES could bring serious problems for example to Russian economy

because more than 40% of Russia's budget comes from oil-and-gas related duties and

taxes25.

For the exporters, on the other hand, considerable fluctuations in oil and gas

prices mean no opportunities for a balanced government budget planning and

serious problems in case of a dramatic price drop. Hence, symptoms of Dutch disease

24

http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings, 27.08.2013. 25

R. Gold, D. Gilbert, U.S. Is Overtaking Russia as Largest Oil-and-Gas Producer, October 2, 2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303492504579111360245276476.html?KEYWORDS=Russia, 12.09.2013.

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have been witnessed in most of oil and gas exporters across the world. If margins in

oil and gas upstream sector fall, the exporters will have to face serious economic

problems and will become less important to the world economy26. To overcome this

obstacle most of the major exporters of oil and gas will have to open their economies

and import technologies. They will face an urgent need to change the structure of

GDP production to find a new source of economic revenues and make their economy

more competitive. Otherwise they won’t be able to restore the balance of payments

equilibrium. Moreover, they will experience high inflation due to the gradual

weakening of their national currencies.

Summing up, the most important impact of RES development is to make the

economic development independent from hydrocarbon prices. Hence, a long-term

transformation of the energy market, in which RES will play a central role, will enable

a stable and sustainable economic development as well as economic security. The

economic effects of RES development will be positive for all countries. However, the

advantages will not be proportional for all countries. According to economization

process, the economic crises put in the first place in security agenda problems of

development. It gives unique opportunity to include RES development as one of the

economic security instruments pushing global economy towards growth and

strengthening economic security.

Development of RES as a chance for climate protection

The potential impact of RES on global oil and gas market and the world

economy may be multi-faceted. It is clear that the development of RES will affect oil

and gas prices in the future. Yet, it is very difficult to discuss both the timespan and

the probable scope of this influence. In the analysis based on econometric models,

which forecast world economic trends up to 2020 or 2030, the influence of RES on oil

and gas market, in terms of both prices and demand, is rather imperceptible. Today it

26

For Gulf Countries Council oil revenues represented 60–88 per cent of government revenues during 2005–2009, and oil share in export revenues was 76–95 per cent in 2008, except in the United Arab Emirates, where it was 43 per cent. The GCC: increasingly diversified economies, Samba Report Series, Office of the Chief Economist, Samba Financial Group, April 2010, p. 5.

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is justified to claim that there is no correlation between the RES development and

hydrocarbon demand or pricing27. In the future the growing significance of RES for

the energy market will bring significant changes, including the distinct correlation

between the development of RES and oil and gas prices. It will strengthen the

economic security of the countries developing RES. Also the impact of RES on climate

change and reduction of hydrocarbon use by exporters in order to control importers

is today rather limited. However, even today, the development of RES is pushing the

global economy towards the economic growth, which can be perceived as a very

positive outcome from the perspective of economic security. The dynamic of RES

development is very high in 2011 only 13% of energy of the world primary energy

supply came from RES. Nowadays most of the 74% of this value is covered by biofuels

and waste, 18% comes from hydroelectric power plants, 1% from the sun and 2%

from wind power. This means that less than half the energy coming from RES

contributes to reducing import dependency. Meanwhile between 2005 and 2011 the

wind power generation rose by 333%, providing 447 TWh in 2011. In the same

period, the fastest growing electricity-generating industry was photovoltaic (PV) – its

production increased by 1550%, up to 65 TWh in 201128. The scope of impact of RES

on economic security will depend on the following variables:

technological progress in renewable energy technology,

oil, gas and coal prices on the world markets,

economies of scale,

political decisions – the manner of subsidizing this type of power generation,

determining the framework of cooperation between the distribution network

operators and the investors and creators of RES systems,

economic situation of various countries – the level of dependency on the

imported energy carriers and the budgetary situation of those states,

27

IEA research indicates that “there is now no correlation between wind output and gas demand, an increasing wind market share neither amplifies nor weakens existing gas demand patterns”. Irene Vos, The Impact of Wind Power on European Natural Gas Markets, International Energy Agency 2013, p.42 28

Authors on the basis of IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, OECD/IEA, p. 15-20.

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acceptance or rejection of global regulations on CO2 emissions imposing the

obligation for the reduction of emissions on all countries.

Thanks to RES, countries could be able to fulfill demand on energy and save

the climate because of economic reasons which are more understandable for all

societies. It is rather difficult to expect that climate change problem will be

securitized putting the issues on the top in countries’ policy and strategy agenda.

Any chance for climate protection?

To sum up, the reason why it is difficult to establish an international climate

protection regime does not lie in the aspects of the economy but above all in the

different perception of energy and climate issues by citizens, which results in

recognizing energy issues by leading emitters as standing higher in the hierarchy of

objectives pursued by countries than climate change. Taking into account the

complex nature of security issues subject to securitization and economization

processes, the key to climate protection is to put forward solutions that enable to

extract cheap energy and protect the climate. Renewable energies, photovoltaics and

wind energy in particular, fulfill these requirements. The crisis of 2008 gives

a chance to include in the policies and strategies of countries the green economy,

which provides for the development of renewable energy systems. The prices of coal,

oil and gas, i.e. the traditional energy carriers, will have a substantial effect on the

cost-effectiveness of these kinds of solutions.

Drawing on past experience in the field of international relations,

a dependence on imports of gas and oil poses a serious threat to countries due to the

fact that such interrelation is being used to exert pressure on these countries and as

a result they strive to become self-sufficient or diversify energy supplies and sources.

Owing to this fact, the development of RES as a part of energy self-sufficiency

becomes a highly desirable item on any energy balance. The multilateral actions that

have been undertaken have a very limited effect on the policies of countries, which

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means that the prospect of establishing common international regulations on the

reduction of CO2 emissions that indirectly enable to control one of the most

important economy sectors, i.e. the energy sector29 seems unlikely. This problem

became apparent during the discussion on mechanisms to control emissions, when

a proposition was made to introduce other than national verification mechanisms

that met with strong opposition from China. Fear of handing over control over the

energy sector to international institutions, dominated by Northern countries, is not

unsubstantiated. In fact, owing to the introduction of emission reductions, this

mechanism makes it possible to lower the competitiveness of economies, above all of

such countries as India, China and Brazil.

It is highly unlikely that countries will reach an agreement on global reduction

of CO2 emissions in the near future, which is due to the fact that climate issues are

placed lower on the hierarchy of objectives of most countries than energy issues. The

key to climate protection is to introduce innovative renewable technologies, the use

of which will strengthen the stability of the global economic development, which is

now exposed to the negative influence of volatile oil and gas prices. The introduction

of these technologies will also constitute a powerful impulse for the global

development, which raises great expectations, considering the current economic

recession. The most advanced countries in terms of this technology will be increasing

their level of economic security. One could assume that climate change will lead to

a catastrophe comparable to the 1974 oil price shock, which will move climate issues

up the hierarchy of countries’ objectives, however, taking into account even the

worst-case scenarios this is still a matter of decades.

Krzysztof Księżopolski – Assistant Professor in Institute of International Relations of

the University of Warsaw, expert of Centre for Political Analysis of the University of

Warsaw

29

More on the strategic meaning of the energy sector, see: K. Proninska, Zagrożenia i wyzwania dla globalnego bezpieczeństwa energetycznego, [in:]: K. M. Księżopolski, Problemy bezpieczeństwa wewnętrznego i bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego, Warszawa 2009, p. 59-92.

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Abstract 

Lack  of  progress  has  been  the  impulse  to  look  into  the  causes  of  impasse  in 

establishment  of  the  International  Climate  Protection  Regime.  The  present  paper 

deals with the process of securitization and economization of security that can help 

to  clarify  the  reasons  behind  this  stagnation.  Problems  in  international  regulation 

does not lie in the aspects of the economy but above all in the different perception of 

energy and climate  issues by citizens, which  results  in  recognizing energy  issues by 

leading  emitters  as  standing  higher  in  the  hierarchy  of  objectives  pursued  by 

countries,  than  climate  change.  In  this  situation  it will be very difficult  to establish 

limits of CO2 emission.  It  seems  that Green Economy and RES development  thanks 

technological  progress  is  the  chance  for  climate  protection  rather  because  of 

economic reasons than ecologic ones.  

 

WPŁYW  SEKURYTYZACJI  I  EKONOMIZACJI  BEZPIECZEŃSTWA  NA  USTANAWIANIE 

MIĘDZYNARODOWEGO REŻIMU OCHRONY KLIMATU 

Abstrakt 

Zagrożenia dla państw oraz całego  życia na Ziemi wynikające z zachodzących zmian 

klimatu stanowią istotne zagadnienie polityki międzynarodowej. Do dziś nie udało się 

ustanowić  powszechnego  systemu  ograniczającego  emisję  CO2,  ergo  chroniącego 

klimat. Autor, odwołując się do procesu sekurytyzacji i ekonomizacji bezpieczeństwa, 

poszukuje przyczyn  impasu w pracach   nad stworzeniem międzynarodowego reżimu 

ochrony  klimatu.  Jego  zdaniem problemy w ustanowieniu  reżimu nie  leżą w  sferze 

gospodarczej  ale  przede  wszystkim  w  różnym  postrzegania  problemów  energii 

i   klimatu  przez  obywateli.  Autor  uważa,  iż  decydująca  jest  percepcja  problemów 

energetycznych przez państwa będące wiodącymi emitentami CO2 –  ich rozwiązanie 

stoi bowiem wyżej w hierarchii celów realizowanych przez państwa niż kwestia zmian 

klimatycznych. Autor sądzi ponadto, że  idea zielonej gospodarki  i odnawialne źródła 

energii  mogą  dzięki  postępowi  technologicznemu  zmieniać  bilanse  energetyczne 

państw i dzięki temu stanowią szansę dla ochrony klimatu.