The “Elephant in the Room” Issues in pastoralism research: An informal conversation

Peter D. Little and Waktole Tiki

Academic Workshop on Mobile Pastoralism, Index Insurance, Computational Sustainability and Policy Innovations for the

Arid and Semi-arid Lands of East AfricaILRI Campus, Nairobi Kenya, June 10-11, 2015

Goals of the presentation

• Are there some big fundamental issues and trends in pastoralism research that are missed in micro-level, project based research? I will discuss 10. It builds on an earlier paper I wrote for a volume by Catley, Lind, and Scoones (2012).

• Present some of the evidence from our current research program on “Climate-induced vulnerability: Pastoralism and livestock marketing chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya (CHAINS). Not heavy on empirics!

• Have an informal conversation!

1. Population Issue

• Town and settlement growth• Demography of mobile pastoralists vs sedentary

pastoralists• Labor absorptive capacity ofPastoralism: low?• In the Borana case settle-ments often in dry seasonGrazing (deep well areas)• Impacts on grazing patterns?

2. Towns matter in pastoral areas

• For diversification: employment and investment

• Links to pastoral sector• Markets• Bring in large numbers of non-pastoralists• Politics and policy!

3. Governance and Democracy Issue

• Related to population and town growth• Mobile pastoralists becomes minority in its

own areas?• Implications for decentralization—”voice of

pastoralists?”• Elections and democracy

4. Basic Services Issue

• Health, water, and education always rank highest priorities in participatory assessments.

• What are we missing here?• Where do we start?

5. Education Issue

• Formal education matters for jobs—productive diversification.

• Political representation and giving a voice to communities.

• Fundamental tasks require literacy—basic math, etc.

• How to deliver education? • The costs of education in loss of labor, settlement,

etc.• Promote sub-division of commons? Youth vs elders

6. Employment issue• Youth and unemployment• Rural Informality (enormous employment)

6. Employment issue (cont)

• Do we understand the employment multipliers of livestock trade, pastoralism, etc.

> 300 BUSINESSES AT HAROBAKE MARKET, BORANA, ETHIOPIA

7. Domestic markets matterWhere is the highest value market?

Figure 2. Average prices for mature male cattle: source Ethiopian livestock market information system

Source: W. Tiki, 2014, p. 23

8. The credit Issue

• Credit flows up the market chain (from smallest to largest traders)

• Default on credit and risk is high—the smallest traders are hurt the most—more than 30 percent of traders experience credit default

Credit defaulters, amount (birr) in the second round of interviews

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation

Amount lost (in Birrs) 27 960 2000000 311709.3 545477

Times defaulted 27 1 6 1.2 0.97

Number of defaulters 27 1 5 1.3 0.92

Source: W. Tiki, Third year annual report, 2014.

9. The Herd Structure Issue: why so little change?

Evidence: Dairy and breeding herds, Borana, Ethiopia, 2013

Male camels

Female camels

Male cattle

Female cattle

Male goats

Female goats

Total number 35 100 294 1313 246 964

% of herd 26 % 74% 18.5% 81.5% 20.5% 79.5%

SOURCE: DATA FROM CHAINS STUDY, 2013

ANIMAL Export Regional Cross-Bordera

National Domestic

Local Domestic

Cattle 1. Bulls 3-7 year 340-380 kg

1. Bulls < 3 years;2. Large Oxen and Bulls> 7 years3. Heifers

1. Bulls (non-export quality) and oxen 3-7 yr. 2. Bulls > 7 years 3. Cows > 8 years

1. Bulls > 7 years2. Cows > 8 years3. Oxen > 7 years

Camel 1. Males 3-8 years 1. Males 3-8 years

Minimal Minimal

Goats 1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg

1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg

1. Males > 2 years2. Females >4 years

1. Males > 2 years2. Females >4 years

Sheep 1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg

1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg

1. Males > 2 years2. Females >4 yrs

1. Males > 2 years2. Females >4 yrs

Contrast: Many Markets demand male animals? Southern Ethiopian Livestock Markets, 2013

Pastoralist Bush trader (male animals)Borana, 2013 Southern Somalia, 1988

Bush trader selling for export trade, Borana, Ethiopia

10. Timing of livestock sales matter

• Determines benefits for producers• Why do herders sell—still little change in past

30 years.• What has changed?

Kanicharo Dikale Total0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Figure Reasons for Selling Livestock by Study Locations

To buy clothes for the family

To pay tax

To buy food for the family

To cover medication expense of the family

To cover children's school expense

To build a house

To buy water for livestock

For ceremonial expense (wedding)

To buy other animal

To pay back loan

Animal's health problem/sick

To buy livestock feed (salt......)

To buy farm tools

To pay for veterinary services/medicine

To buy mobile phone

Research Sites

Perc

enta

ge o

f HH

Reas

ons

Source: CHAINS Data, 2013

CHALLENGE The ‘why’ & ‘when’ herders sell animals

Gradual Asset Deaccumulation Accelerated Deaccumulation Massive Deaccumulation Reaccumulation

Accumulation (+)Decummulation (-)

Asset Poor Households

Asset Rich Households

Livelihood Strategies Sell livestockGrain stocks decline Food expenditures increaseSearch for off-farm employ’tConserve cashSell woodBorrow from merchants and familyMaintain and invest in social networks

Livestock distress sales and weight loss; livestock consumedConsume wild roots/leaves search for off-farm emply’tOut-migrationGo to live with relativesLittle investment in social networksSell h’hold items+implementsIncreased sharecropping

Consume seedExtreme livestock mortalityGrain stocks dry upHomes deconstructed to sell wood and corrugated ironOutmigration if health allowsFamilies and communities unravelSocial networks difficult to maintain

Unknown

Market Characteristics Land rental rates increaseBorrowing costs increaseWage rate declines slightlyGrain prices rise slightlyLivestock prices begin to declineDiets and labor productivity maintained

Wage rates fall; land rental rates riseLabor demand declinesGrain prices spike in thin mktsLivestock prices plummet giving from the well-off to poor w/in community

Borrowing costs spikeLand rental rates fallWood/livestock prices collapseCereal prices uncertain due to food aidCommunity network collapsesMalnutrition, disease, death

Unknown

Climate/Drought Risk (multi-year cycles) (Roth and Little, 1998)

• Improve local bargaining/price and timing of sales–

•Address feed problem

Abattoirs Export traders Local traders Local pastoralists0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

Livestock Buyers (Access issue for herders), Borana, ETH

Buyers

Buyers

Per

cen

tag

e S

har

e o

f B

uye

rs

Mobility affects market access: Fixed markets are not where best grazing is, esp in droughts(map by Sarah Guagliardo)

Uneven Impacts and Losses due to Feed shortage (drought)

Photos by Dejene N. Debsu

ASANTE SANA

Acknowledgements: Support for this research was provided by the Climate-Induced Vulnerability and Pastoralist Livestock Marketing Chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya (CHAINS) Project of the Innovation Lab for Adapting Livestock Systems to Climate Change (ALS-CC) Collaborative Research Program (USAID Grant No. EEM-A-00-10-00001). The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Thanks also due to members of CHAINS project: Dejene Negassa DebsuPolly EricksenUriel Kitron Hussein A. MahmoudWorkneh NegatuCarla Roncoli