MARGATE CONFERENCE

FIRST PLENARY SESSION

THE AUTOMATIC FACTORY

DREAM OR NIGHTMARE?

by SIR WALTER PUCKEY,

President of the Institution.

IN December of last year, Orwell's " 1984" causedcontroversy and some consternation among many

television viewers who realised what may happen tous thirty years from now. The purpose of thisConference is to show a more limited audience whatthe industrial scene might well be like in 1984 and, Ihope, to help it in shaping course today so that 1984will bring, not the world of Big Brother and theenslavement of the spirit, but one where man willhave achieved greater moral and material advance-ment, and exercised greater power over insecurity,drudgery and inefficiency. In practical terms, wherehe will have achieved Mr. Butler's recent target of adoubled standard of living.

How much will Automation, or the AutomaticFactory, contribute to these objectives? Are we onthe eve of a second Industrial Revolution? Thesequestions will confront us many times during thenext few days, and in order to provide a basis fordiscussion let me attempt a few definitions.

Automation (1) was first widely publicised byDiebold(2), who gave creative credit to Harder (3).Diebold quotes Harder's use of it to describe " theautomatic handling of materials and parts in and outof machines "(4). This has the merit of simplicity;I wish I could say the same for other and laterdefinitions.

By extrapolation, the Automatic Factory is onewhere automation is universally applied — whereeverything within is handled automatically.Elementary thought tells us that no such AutomaticFactory exists, as even the master button must have itshuman controller, although he may sit in an office100 miles away. In practice some machines anddepartments are today described as 'automatic' whichstill require people to control them, performing suchfunctions as feeding, inspection, maintenance, andvery important indeed, disposing of the completedproduct, whether it be statistics, or sports cars.

We conclude, therefore, that it is the trend towardsfuller automation in which we should be interested,and that the very term 'Automatic Factory',attractive though it might sound to many, is a mis-nomer, is misleading and is, indeed, dangerous.

Are we on the eve of a second IndustrialRevolution? Before deciding let us look back intohistory. The word ' revolutionary' is often appliedtoday, but compared with the total impact of thefirst Industrial Revolution the examples are veryrestricted in effect. Yet any one particular discovery-may well, in the course of time, be regarded by thehistorian as he today regards Watt's engine, thestarting point of a long-term widely applied revolu-tion, and from a number of current examples thedevelopment of the jet engine by Whittle may bequoted. In a matter of only 15 years, the majority offront line military aircraft of the world have becomepowered by an entirely new form of unit; truly, arevolutionary step.

Or consider the main line railroads of U.S.A. In1947 they had 37,100 steam locomotives and 4,400diesel electric units. Yet only six- years later thenumbers were 11,700 steam locos and 22,700 diesel-electrics. What a revolutionary target for BritishRailways !

(1) The word itself has a somewhat mixed parentage.It is derived from the Greek automatos — selfmoving; AUTOS, self and the stem MAT, moving.To this is added the Latin suffix ION, being or stateof being. See I.Prod.E. Journal, February, 1955.

(2) " Automation — The Advent of the AutomaticFactory " — by John Diebold.

(3) D. S. Harder, Vice-President for Manufacturing, FordMotor Co., U.S.A.

(4) Harder has more recently defined it as " the automatichandling of parts between progressive productionprocesses ".

406

The First Industrial RevolutionThe first Industrial Revolution had a profound

effect upon Britain and the world, but many othergreat movements are encompassed in our historicalscene. Industry has, of course, existed for manycenturies, but however much Rome and Greece, forinstance, conditioned our modern lives, I must goback only as far as the period which immediatelypreceded and conditioned the Industrial Revolution,i.e., the 16th and 17th centuries.

Many individual steps are grouped by the historianto describe a significant trend and identify a periodin history. It is likely to contain widespread socialand industrial movements taking place over manydecades. Using such a basis we might agree thatHall (5) uses it accurately to describe a period which,spread over two or more centuries provided thescientific foundation on which the first IndustrialRevolution was built. " Much more " he says, " hasbeen learnt about Nature, from the structure ofmatter to the physiology of man, in the last centuryand a half (6) than in all preceding time ".

As Pope said :" Nature and Nature's laws lay hid by night,God said c Let Newton be ', and all was light!"

But within the time period described by Hall,another revolution was taking shape in which theleading roles were taken by capital and commerce.Britain's overseas trade was her principal source otcapital investment and gain, and her great successin this activity provided the wealth for subsequentindustrial expansion. Among other opportunities theopening of the Atlantic routes gave a new characterto commerce, not only by the greater tonnage shippedbut because of the more popular cargoes carried;tea, sugar and tobacco were in greater demand thanthe pepper and spices of an earlier age.

It is impossible to declare whether large scaledemand for a product precedes or follows production,but there is no doubt that the two are intimatelyconnected and no consideration of production orproductivity must lose sight of this basic fact. Thelarge-scale use of capital to promote both commercialdemand and production resources has been anessential feature of Britain's progress over the lastfew centuries. " * Two centuries ago not one personin a thousand wore stockings; one century ago notone person in five hundred wore them; now not oneperson in a thousand is without them'. Thisquotation (7) illustrates a feature of the IndustrialRevolution that made a profound impression on theimagination of the time. When capital was appliedto production on a large scale, it gained its profitsby producing in bulk; producing, that is, for massconsumption. Energy and brains were now devotedto satisfying, not the luxurious taste of the classesserved by the commerce of mediaeval Europe, butthe needs of the poor consumer " (8).

So, therefore, the stage was set for large-scaleindustrial expansion, and into this favourableatmosphere the steam engine was introduced, aninvention with wider possibilities than almost anyprevious discovery. One day in the spring of 1765,James Watt, instrument maker, 29 years old, was

walking on Glasgow Green, and it being Sunday heprobably turned his thoughts from a contemplation ofHeaven and Hell to a current practical dilemma —how could a cylinder be both hot and cold at thesame time. And so was formed the idea of aseparate condenser, and with it the possibility oiemploying steam as a motive power for machines.Eleven years later his first successful engine was made,and within another twenty years his engines " were inuse in mines and foundries, in textile and papermills, and great columns of smoke from innumerablechimneys spoiling the light and colour of the skiesdeclared the triumph of industry and the glory oiman ".

As a Cornishman I take both pleasure and painin recording that it was among the enterprisingCornish mine-owners that he found his earliestcustomers, who he once described as having " themost ungracious manners of any people I have everyet been amongst ".

Watt, like many inventors, was not a skilful businessman, and it was Boulton who realised more vividly thepotentialities of this new power unit; he was all forhaste as " the people in London, Manchester andBirmingham are steam-mill mad ". Today, for steam-mill read " Electronics " !

The realisation that rotary power could be providedby Watt's engines really revolutionised Britishindustry. Many factories required water power toprovide rotary motion, and this placed great limita-tions on their size, location and scope. In 1785 thefirst cotton mill, at Papplewick, was powered by asteam engine, and "between 1775 and 1800 Boultonand Watt erected 289 steam engines in England.The first revolution, the revolution in the textileindustries, was immensely accelerated but not causedby Watt's invention. Until that invention millshad to be placed by the side of streams, and mostof the machinery was made of wood with metalfittings. Watt made it possible to set up mills any-where, and, as engineering developed from his dis-covery of rotary motion, it was easy to provide metalmachinery. Such machinery came into general usebetween 1825 and 1840. Moreover, the applicationof steam power to spinning and weaving was followed,of course, by an immense expansion of the textileindustries. The second revolution, that of transport,and the third, the use of machines for makingmachines, depended entirely on his invention. If oneman in the history of the world is to be taken as theauthor of modern civilisation, it is this melancholymechanic, in whose outlook on life the superstitiousmight perhaps discern a warning of its ambiguousblessings " (9).

It is interesting here to recall Boulton's greatinfluence during this formative period. Not only hadhe the business initiative that Watt lacked, but hewas in many ways a pioneer in industrial manage-ment. At his Soho works he practised management" (5) "The Scientific Revolution 1500-1800" by A. R. Hall.

(6) He refers to the period between 1800 and 1950.(7) "The Results of Machinery (1831)" — a publication

of the Society for the Diffusion of Useful Knowledge.(8) " The Rise of Modern Industry " by J. L. & Barbara

Hammond — page 210.

407

* 1100

f i r

BRITISH IRONEXPORTED

FOHEIGN IRON

I77O 1766 I83<> IftOb 1835 1849

Fig. 1. Production of pig iron in Great Britain.

in an astoundingly scientific way for his age, andas the description runs : " While sitting in the midstof his factory surrounded by the clang of hammersand the noise of engines, he could usually detect whenany stoppage occurred, or when the machinery wasgoing too fast or too slow, and issue his ordersaccordingly " (10). One can well imagine him todaytaking full advantage of the modern control systemswhich are an essential part of automation.

As so often happens, progress in one directioninevitably led to progress in many others ; the pebblecreated many ripples. Watt's invention was thecatalystic force which promoted energetic discoveriesover a wide field, and " the patents issued in thequarter of a century following 1760 were morenumerous than in the previous century and ahalf" (11). Bell, in 1812, applied the power of steamto navigation, thus heralding a new age of transport.The manufacture of productive machine tools wasstimulated by the higher accuracies and better finishesdemanded by the new engines. The discoveries,particularly of Cort, that the iron industry need notrely upon charcoal, were of great importance to everyindustry. " Fifteen tons of bar-iron could now beproduced in the time formerly required for producinga single ton, and, moreover, this could be producedby the use of coal in place of charcoal " (12).

Fig. 1 shows clearly the expansion of British ironworks over this period — truly a revolution.

The pottery industry is interesting as a study indelayed technical progress. Increasing trade broughta demand for better internal communications (howhistory is repeating itself today), and through theefforts of men like Josiah Wedgwood, the Potteries,among other areas, were opened up to the outsideworld, this alone resulting in a great increase intrade. Oddly enough, increased mechanical powerplayed little part in this increased business, and " upto the year 1845 the potting industry had remainedalmost completely unaffected by the scientific andmechanical improvements which had greatly modifiedsome trades, and had revolutionised others. Thewhole range of mechanical science was almost solelyrepresented in the manufacture of potting by thethrowers' wheel — identical in mechanical principle,and practically so in form, with that used by theancient Egyptians — and the turners' lathe " (13).

Josiah Wedgwood, writing in 1783, said this aboutthe effect of changing conditions among the workers," the inhabitants bore all the marks of poverty to amuch greater degree than they do now. Theirhouses were miserable huts; the lands poorlycultivated, and yielded little of value for the food ofman or beast, and these disadvantages, with roadsalmost impassable, might be said to have cut off ourpart of the country from the rest of the world,besides rendering it not very comfortable to ourselves.Compare this picture, which I know to be a true one,with the present state of the same country. Theworkmen earning near double their former wages —their houses mostly new and comfortable, and thelands, roads, and every other circumstance bearingevident marks of the most pleasing and rapidimprovements ".

Such was the view of one pioneer on the effectsof better business among those who worked to provideit.

It was in cotton where the Industrial Revolutionmade its greatest impact. In a few years the cottonindustry reoriented itself from East to West, and webecame clothed with cotton goods. In 1785 Watt'ssteam power began to replace water power, and textileproduction removed from villages and cottages intothe large factories. What was done under many roofswas now done in large factories. " I n 1813 there were2,400 power-looms in Britain; in 1820, 14,150; in1829, 55,000; and in 1833, 100,000. The inventionschanged not merely the power but the character ofthe industry. Before the Industrial Revolution,spinning and weaving were both cottage industries.This revolution in the methods of the industry caused,of course, an immense increase in its productivecapacity; in 1764 England imported less than4,000,000 pounds of cotton wool, in 1833 more than300,000,000. The price of the raw material in 1833was less than one-fourth of its price in 1798 "(14).

(9) " The Rise of Modern Industry " by J. L. & BarbaraHammond.

(10) " Lives of the Engineers " by Samuel Smiles.(11) "Great Britain from Adam Smith to the Present

Day " by C. R. Fry.(12) " The Rise of Modern Industry " by J. L. & Barbara

Hammond — page 140.(13) "The Staffordshire Potter" by H. Owen.

408

Man in the First Industrial RevolutionBut what about the relationship between man and

mari in this period of Industrial Revolution? Inmany ways men had been released from bondage,from narrow village life to larger and rapidlychanging communities, where, it could be argued,they would find position and wealth undreamt of in aprevious life. In the peasant village initiative waschecked by custom, capital investment by communityrestrictions; the new industrial possibilities opened upto those with capital an entirely new world, but tothat majority of people without capital it meantembarking on a new way of life in which new formsand opportunities of employment were neutralised bya greater insecurity, which increased a naturalreluctance to change the old and tried for the newand unknown.

The Industrial Revolution widened the gapbetween rich and poor, between novelty and custom,and between town and country, and the closing ofthese gaps has preoccupied us during much of thesubsequent 100 or more years.

It is easy to condemn the excesses of those earlyyears. We were temporarily knocked off balance by atide of scientific and technological progress the likeof which had never before been seen. Custom,tradition and religion, which had once been greatstabilising forces, were largely swept aside in theflood. Now large numbers moved forward from .istabilised society to a new system of production where" private gain was accounted as public good ".

Let us move on through the Victorian andEdwardian eras to the last few decades. Men ofmy generation who have achieved managerial rankwill have seen many residual stresses left by thosewho helped to forge Britain's industrial greatness.The romance and achievements are soon forgotten,while a memory of the errors and excesses remainfor generations as warning and a guide to those who,in a later age, are confronted by similar forces andsimilar possibilities of change. We have moved intosuch an age, and this Conference is designed not onlyto demonstrate some of the new discoveries, but tolook at the past and present as a help in dissolving themists that surround 1984, so that we not only seeour goal but plan more wisely to achieve it.

The Results of the First Industrial RevolutionHow far have we corrected the excesses of the first

Industrial Revolution ? I said earlier that thisperiod widened the gap between rich and poor,novelty and custom, and between town and country.Let us examine what has happened since.

"Action provokes reaction ", and as a direct resultof the widened gap between rich and poor greatindustrial and social movements such as TradesUnions and the Labour Party arose. These, togetherwith a generally increased social conscience, reversedthe trend and reduced the gap. Today the equalisationof income and opportunity has reached a stageundreamed of 100 years ago; indeed, the pendulumhas swung so far that by 1984 it may well havereversed again, because of a growing recognition that" Some men are more equal than others ", and that

given suitable minimum remuneration, man's rewardshould be more commensurate with his skills. It was,I believe, Chesterton who said " the British workeris more interested in the inequality of horses than theequality of man ". Without prejudicing the first wehave moved almost too much towards the second,and the trend of Automation may force us to grantmore encouragement to skill, because we shall demandso much more of it.

What about the gap between novelty and custom,the clash between those who want change and thosewho don't? I believe it has decreased considerably,and men are today conditioned more to acceptchange, although too many restrictive practices stillremain in all grades and industries, among managersand workers alike. Naturally, most of us areconditioned by the past, which casts its shadow overtoday and tomorrow, and the removal of this shadowis an important thing to achieve if we are to reach1984 in triumph. It will be achieved by educatingmore people to accept the advantages of an increasingrate of change, by getting them to discard old customsand precedents, having been convinced that less of thisprotective clothing will be wanted in the morefavourable climate of the future.

But we don't throw away an overcoat unless we aresatisfied that the barometer is ' set fair \ for a longperiod ahead, and our British climate is notoriouslyfickle. There is, too, a real danger that if we throwaway too much ' custom' we throw away stability,and far from wanting less of this commodity in 1984,we want more. How then can we ensure greaterpersonal, family and national security in a rapidlychanging technological world ? To this question thereis no single answer, but the need to provide satis-factory ones is as great today as at any time in ourindustrial history.

What about our third gap — between town andcountry? The steam engine harnessed to rotarypower created the modern factory, and its uglysetting, the industrial town. The " dark satanic mills "are going, but many blots still remain on Britain'slandscape, showing evidence of excesses which,because of size, location and durability remain to thisday. But, as is often the case, invention counteractsinvention, and two devices, the electric motor andthe internal combustion engine, have done much tonarrow the gap and restore a better balance.

The electric motor made possible a new approachto factory layout and life. Why, even in my time, theprogress from a jungle of belts to the modern,decentralised factory has been amazing. Productionengineers have been able to set up small plants incountry areas, almost eliminate ' depressed areas \improve working conditions immensely, develop lay-outs and machines greatly, and increase flexibility. Wehave, too, commenced an almost revolutionarymechanisation of the home itself, encouraged by betterconditions of factory life and the consequent shortageof domestic labour.

The internal combustion motor speeded upimmensely the large-scale movement of men and

(14) " The Rise of Modern Industry " by J. L. & BarbaraHammond — pages 183 - 184.

materials made necessary by mass production andconsumption. It mechanised the roads and air,leaving the steam locomotives of Trevithick andStevenson to puff along behind, thus once againshowing, as in Lancashire today, that to lead a revolu-tion is not good enough. Leadership involves ' eternalvigilance '.

The Legacy of the First Industrial RevolutionWhat remains of " the tumult and the shouting " ?

Fortunately many earlier excesses have been corrected,even if by force majeure. Unfortunately, many of itsgood features have lost impetus over the years, andBritain has in turn lost her place as the workshop ofthe world; others have continued our own pioneeringefforts, although many signs indicate that we are morevigorously throwing aside much of our prewar inertia.We can't afford not to!

In the technological sense we have, I think, retainedmuch of our early success in initiating what LordHalsbury calls ' novelty ', and we are proud that manyimportant scientific milestones have been erected bythe British. Our atmosphere favours scientificactivities, and industry and government support themwell. It is in the development and production ofnovelty where we have relatively lost ground, andwhere we require reinforcements. Fortunately theseare becoming available, in many forms. TheInstitution of Production Engineers is a modern child,born of necessity. Other professional bodies arebecoming more interested in the technique of develop-ment and production of materials, machines,managers and men. Technical colleges areincreasingly concerned with the education of morewho can absorb scientific knowledge and translate itinto better goods. Even our Universities, sometimesreluctantly, are realising that they must play a greaterrole, of which a significant part is to understandmore clearly what is meant by ' industry' and whathelp it wants. Oddly enough, the very strength ofour scientific effort has created its own bottleneck,

but many signs indicate that the ' flow' is now in-creasing, although nowhere near what it should be.

In the study of man and his working environmentwe have, I believe, progressed greatly, largely in thelast few decades, and never before have so manymanagers and men understood the place of man inindustry and in his social structure, the need forcloser mutual understanding, and the necessity toformalise and improve this through joint consultation,education, training and promotion. In this respectwe are in better shape to face the second IndustrialRevolution because, unlike the 19th century, we arenow moving from one system to a similar one, albeitat a more rapid rate. It is, therefore, more a matterof speeding up the existing machinery (15) than ofreplacing the old entirely with new.

The Second Industrial RevolutionAre we then on the eve of a Second Industrial

Revolution ? My answer is that the First IndustrialRevolution, apart from some pockets of resistance,petered out in the first few decades of this century,having lasted for about 150 years. The SecondRevolution, overlapping its predecessor as all move-ments do, is already under way, and differs from thefirst in a manner that is easily explained, but profoundin nature. If the first Industrial Revolution is repre-sented by the discovery of machine power, the secondIndustrial Revolution can be represented by thediscovery of man's power helped by machine. Thesecond Revolution—we might call it " the IndustrialRenaissance"—started when a significant numberof people realised that in developing the machine agewe had forgotten man; the next few decades will,in my view, be devoted to greater means of upliftingman's own power by (a) augmenting his brawn powerthrough mechanisation, (b) augmenting his brain-power through more control power and (c) controllinghis emotion power by better managerial power.

(15) I use the word 'machinery' in the widest sense.

PHASES OF THE FIRST AND SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

Pre 1st. Industrial Revolution—Hand power § |

1st. Industrial Revolution — Hand power + Machine power

2nd. Industrial Revolution (early period)—Machine power ; man's power.

2nd. Industrial Revolution (later period, say 1984) — Machine power + man's powers-

control power.

Figure 2.

410

Fig. 3.(Courtesy of Philips Electrical Ltd.)

Greater control power will help him to decide, relievehim of routine, of boring, dangerous tasks and enablehim to do existing things better and new things well.It may, in due course, provide him with greaterleisure to escape into the troubles of leisure, but by1984 I do not anticipate a great reduction in theworking week (16), merely a more effective use ofhours.

Let us attempt in Fig. 2 to state these significanttrends in a simple (almost too simple) form.

Control Power' Control' has many alternative definitions,

including check — restrain — govern — regulate —command — compare. It is, I believe, the mostimportant single word in the Vocabulary ofAutomation and it is probable that it will be exercisedmore through the one word ' Electronics ' than anyother.

Last November we remembered the 50thanniversary of Sir Alexander Fleming's discovery of

the thermionic valve, and today we see around usthe wide possibilities of electronic power. The radioindustry had by 1939 brought it into millions ofhomes, but war stimulated great developments,particularly in radar, which helped to win the Battleof Britain and has revolutionised land, sea and airtactics ever since. Electronics has arrived in a bigway; it provides us, not with bulk power, but moreprecise means of controlling and utilising bulk power,and it is obvious that more horse power per capitarequires relatively more control of that power. Thesmall machine tool may be powered by a fractionalH.P. motor switched straight on and off the line,but its larger, more complicated successor needscontrol equipment of a bulky and expensive nature,such as Fig. 3 and 4. A machine tool electronicallycontrolled, or linked to others by transfer mechanisms,as described by Stokes, Williamson and Bezier, needsan even larger percentage of control equipment.

(16) See page 414.

411

Fig. 4.(Courtesy of Philips Electrical Ltd.)

Will the advantage of better control more thancompensate us for the greater cost and complicationof the controls themselves? The answer, as often, isthat " i t all depends", and the wise manager wiilrequest as good an individual case to be made forgreater control power, as he normally requires forgreater mechanisation.

The decision may, however, become moredifficult, as he is entering a period where hiscompany's future must depend increasingly upon anappreciation of research trends over a wide field.Man's imagination must leap over company andindustry-wide barriers into other spheres, and he mustrealise that, as the international volume of researchincreases so the rate of change within his, or hiscompetitor's, business may be forced to increaseconsiderably. Cross-fertilisation becomes a factor ofmuch greater importance.

Let us consider the volume of research. We have,in recent years, invented invention, and the punyresources of Boulton and W'att look small beer com-

412

pared with the organised flow of research, develop-ment and patents emerging from government andindustrial back rooms. In Watt's time thecommunication of ideas from one sphere to anothertook time; now what was yesterday's inventionbecomes today's knowledge, creating its own urge fordevelopment, and unsettling customers who, whenthey hear constantly of new things cannot be blamedfor wanting them quickly. Automation is a typicaland topical case, where wide knowledge of itspossibilities is spreading rapidly among men, creatinga demand for new techniques and equipment which isunlikely to be satisfied in volume for years to come.It is a paradox that while knowledge of what ispossible has speeded up, delivery of the goods takesconsiderably longer.

History shows that great movements start fromisolated discoveries or individuals, and I have quotedthe steam engine and electric motor as examples; atleast they represented the visible tips which, as withan iceberg, are thrown up by a great volume of

WHAT CONSTITUTES A HIGHER STANDARDOF LIVING

(1) More commodities in the shops.

(2) A higher "rea l" income (a 20/- pound).

(3) A reduction in taxation.

(4) A reduction in working hours.

(5) Better and cheaper education.

(6) Retirement benefits themselves doubledto provide a more reasonable relation-ship to previous earning standards.

(7) Fuller opportunities to develop personalaptitudes, take wider responsibilitiesand contribute as a member of theworking team.

Figure 5.

discovery and development beneath the surface. Twogleaming new tips have thrust themselves into viewin recent years, popularly named Electronics andNuclear Energy. These two are the great 20thcentury technological forces which, like all largeforces, may either help to wreck mankind or, as isequally possible, provide us with new tools for thearts of peace.

The Frame-Work of AutomationBefore dealing with the tools of Automation we

should, I think, discuss certain leading questionswhich extend far beyond automation, and whichconcern themselves with the national frame-work inwhich our activities are contained.

What, for instance, is the purpose of automation {According to some people it is to displace labour, butthis is a negative view. If it is to fulfil a social need,what is this need ? I am not capable of writinga dissertation on human happiness, and other speakerssuch as Professor Williams and Mr. F. G. Woollardwill deal with moral and human values morecompetently. I must be content with a more mundaneand more commonly understood social aim — thetarget which Mr. Butler laid before us recently — adoubling of our standard of living in the next 25years. One might assume from the recent judgmentgiven by the nation that the last budget was a steptowards the realisation of that target.

What constitutes a higher standard of living ?The answer must be a personal one, but an enquiryamong a number of people has shown that manyindividual answers may be condensed into a few, andthese are shown in Fig. 5.

It was refreshing to find that the majority of thoseasked realised fully that these amenities will beprovided only by higher personal and nationalproductivity, which in the long run must pay forincreased rewards.

To analyse all of these requirements would take usoutside the scope of this Conference, but I felt that itwas possible to condense again and to leave beforeus just three essential things that could be regardedas the industrial framework within which automationcould be studied. They are shown in Fig. 6 and Ishall comment briefly upon each.

(1) A Greater Ability to Translate New Ideasinto Practical Reality

I have already mentioned the increasing scale ofresearch, which may well provide more dissatisfactionsif-we fail to translate the increasing amount of noveltymore quickly into practice. This is a real challengeto our ingenuity in many directions, ranging from abetter understanding between researchers andproducers to the provision of better production controlsystems for taking care of the greater amount ofsub-contracting necessary in this specialist age.

It is a problem of particular interest to industry,but it has, too, a considerable social significance, as ;igreater ability to develop the increasing number ofnew discoveries, and produce them quickly, will, ofall things be the one most likely to maintain ourcompetitive power. We will be successful abroad instrict relationship to our ability to design, make andexport Novelty.

(2) A Greater Recognition of the Value ofHuman Rights, Responsibilities umlAspirations

Here we are in much better shape to face thefuture than in the 18th century, and I am convincedthat the more general acceptance of man's importantplace in a modern industry and society started thesecond Industrial Revolution. Much importantresearch is today helping us towards this greaterunderstanding of man and the work of such men asWiener (17) and Grey Walter (18) who I had thepleasure of meeting recently, is likely to extend the

(17) " The Human Use of Human Beings " by Dr. NorbertWiener.

THE TASK OF INDUSTRY(1) A greater ability to translate new ideas

into practical reality.

(2) A greater recognition of the value ofhuman rights, responsibilities and as-pirations.

(3) An increase in individual and nationalproductivity to an extent (which whileproviding not only a higher real incomefor those at work, will also provideincreasing support for those beingeducated and those in retirement.

Figure 6.

413

Fig. 7. How much extra productivity do we require ?.

frontier of knowledge in this field. I recommend allproduction engineers to study the " human use ofhuman beings ".

Electronic development will help greatly in theseresearches, first by providing tools for the researchersand secondly, by off-loading on to the electronicbrain in its various manifestations, routine workpreviously occupying and perhaps wasting thatprecious thing, the human brain. We must, however,keep one foot firmly on the ground, as productionengineers know from experience that the abilitiesand possibilities of individual men can never whollybe specified in a laboratory. But many men sharecommon interests, and one feels sometimes that weshould emphasise our similarities rather than ourdifferences. It is because of this that I believe morehelp can be given to so-called practical men by thescientists, never forgetting, however, that it is notonly the law applied to the many, but its applicationto individuals that requires skill. Used together theycan be unbeatable.

(3) An Increase in Individual and NationalProductivity, Providing a Higher RealIncome for those at work, and IncreasingSupport for those being Educated andthose in Retirement

The economists may well say that this is the nubof the argument, and that all other activities areuseless unless we are able to produce more or less.Partly true although, like profits, there is no virtuein higher productivity alone; it is what one doeswith it that matters. At least three important questionsarise in considering (3) :-

(a) how much increased productivity we requireto achieve the target;

(b) what is the national attitude towards increasingproductivity ? ;

(c) what are the basic power requirements ? ;Let us consider each in turn :-

(a) How much Increased Productivity weRequire to Achieve the Target

Fig. 7 is an attempt to provide an answer and Iam grateful to P.E.P. (19) for the statistics on whichthis graph is prepared.

It shows that if we are to achieve the Butler targeta considerable increase of productivity is required.How important it is that we should achieve this

higher rate, because at least three factors over thenext 25 years will be working against our efforts.First of all, Britain's population by about 1984 will beincreased by about 2£ million people, while ouractual working force will be increased by only justover 1 million. Then, too, what about the numberof hours worked per week in 1984 ? Many will feelthat a higher standard of life involves a shorteningof the working week and in preparing this graphI have estimated that there will be a reduction of 6%in hours worked per person. Finally, of course, thegraph is influenced by the increase in other livingstandards which the Butler target requires, thus call-ing for much greater output of goods from a workingpopulation increased by only a small extent andworking less hours per week. Can the power ofautomation help to raise our individual standard ofproductivity to the required figure ? I hope thisConference will be able to say " Yes! ".

(b) What is the National Attitude towardsIncreasing Productivity ?

Never have we been more productivity-conscious,and I am very impressed by the greater interest of agreater number in the worthwhileness of effort inthis direction. How has this come about ? Creditobviously goes to many people, but of all pressuresthe need to increase production itself, to achievegreater volume, to satisfy more customers, hasprobably been the greatest single driving force. IfBritain's G.N.P. doesn't increase then productivitywon't, and it is desirable to emphasise, because fewpeople do so, the close relationship between produc-tion and productivity.

Production pressure is closely connected with fullemployment, which I regard as one of the mostdesirable individual, company, and national conditionsto attain and maintain. Its existence over recentyears has involved a drastic readjustment of outlookamong managers and men, although there are stilltoo many who appear either to be hoping for orfearing a return to ' easier' labour conditions.

What maintains full employment ? That fourthdimension, confidence in the future, surely plays agreat part, and it is encouraging to see it displayedthrough the many long-term capital investment plansbeing publicised by our great public and privatebodies. In recent months over 27 million sqare feetof new factory floor space and thousands of millionsof £'s of capital have been publicly announced(Fig. 8), and if more companies prepared andpublicised their future plans of investment it wouldadd to our national stock of personal confidence inthe future, and make some of us more willing toshed the overcoat of restrictive practices we inheritedfrom our grandfathers.

But even the state of full employment can beimproved. The task of achieving the Butler targetwill create more opportunities for managers and mento expand their efficiencies, jobs and opportunities.The ' situations vacant' columns will continue to

(18) "The Living Brain" by Dr. Grey Walter.(19) " Towards the Automatic Factory ". P.E.P. Broad-

sheet No. 380, June, 1955.

414

SOME LARGER CAPITAL INVESTMENTPLANS RECENTLY ANNOUNCED.

CoalElectricityGasNuclear Power

StationsRailway

Roads

Ford MotorCompany

Yauxhall MotorsLtd.

£19,000,000 per year.£240,000,000 „ „£56,000,000 „ „Probably more than£300,000,000 by 1965.Probably over£80,000,000 per year.Probably £50,000,000per year.£65,000,000 invest-ment programme.£36,000,000 invest-ment programme.

Fig. 8

expand and as prosperity is indivisible, so the varietyof new and better jobs open is very great. Someindustries, such as those taking the strain of the newdiscoveries, will naturally lead the demand, but theycannot expect to get recruits because of a fallingdemand elsewhere. The young men of tomorrowwill be in even greater demand and the only waytheir limited numbers will give the results we wantis to get more out of each — to provide him withmore skill than his mid-century predecessor. For thisreason I hope you will study carefully the Papersgiven by Professor Matthew and Principal Old, as aprogramme of Automation will bog down unlessconsiderably more is done to provide more peoplewith skill and with greater skill per person.

What rewards will this bring ? Some talknostalgically about the elimination of the craftsman.Why, there is more skill per person, albeit of adifferent kind, today than ever before, andAutomation will require, not automatons gazingstupidly at dials, but a far greater percentage ofdesigners, prototype makers, production engineers andquality controllers, not to mention better managersto control the lot.

This trend will, I hope, lift the skilled differential

so that more are encouraged to acquire the use ofmore skill. Consider the engineering employee(Fig. 9). This reduction in differential is bad, and Ihave already said that the future may show arelative improvement in payment for skill. Toomany strikes are today being called on this issue, andboth skilled managers and men have a legitimategrievance.

It seems inevitable that relatively more people inindustry will work upon more skilled tasks, such asdesigning, controlling, and maintaining, and this skillmust be largely provided from existing people, whowill improve their status and earnings accordingly.So, parents and teachers, when you see around you,even amongst you, evidence which indicates that train-ing and skill don't always get the reward they should,take heart. I believe the future will be more bright,largely because of and not despite the increasedpower of the machine.

What is man's attitude towards the machine ?The introduction of more machine power has in thelong run improved his living standards, and willcontinue to do so to an even greater extent underAutomation. But to a greater extent also the problemof readjustment or redeployment will be with us.Full employment gives most men reasonablealternative employment, but most would rather beaccommodated within their existing Company. Thebetter the arrangements for accommodating changeinside companies the greater will be the acceptance"of change, and as we shall require more change sowe must accommodate it in better fashion.

Technological redeployment has too often meanttemporarily lowered earnings and worsenedconditions, and I am surprised that more companies,having achieved long-term success with a newdevelopment, do not smooth out the temporarypersonal readjustments involved. The cost is smallin relation to long-term results. These adjustmentswill become more widespread as automation spreads itseffects over a wider group. Mr. Hooper portrays theelectronics office, and the rapid growth of mechanisedoffices will continue, affecting millions of people.Whether this ' office' mechanisation will strengthenwhite-collar unions I do not know, but as automa-tion will be applied so widely, we shall do well toremember that originally the machine created unions,and they grew and reacted together.

Fig. 9. The Reducing Differential.

^REDUCING PAYMENT. FOR SKILLX V «. \ . V \ . \ X V V * . X \ \ . V \ . \ . v X • v \ V \ \ \ v ' v >

415

240

22O

200

I6O

I4O

IOO

8O

40

20

TOTAL UNITS SENT OUT( INCLUDING TRANSMISSIONLOSSES, ETC,)

TOTAL SALES

I92S

FORECAST

Fig. 10.

But whatever the attitude to productivity, onething remains; workers are consumers too, and mustearn to consume. A series of Automatic Factorieswith men sitting idle at home is, therefore, fantastic,and our future standard of life depends onmaintaining a balance between production andconsumption. This conversation is reported (20)as taking place between Walter Reuther, the head ofC.I.O., and a Company Official of Ford's, Detroit,while looking at a new line of machines :-

Company Official: "How are you going to collectunion dues from these guys ? "

Replied Reuther : " How are you going to getthem to buy Fords ? "

The agreement entered into between Fords and C.I.O.last week adds point to this argument.

I wish time permitted a fuller discussion of thisimportant section. Listen, however, to others,including Mr. Fletcher, and decide for yourselfwhether I am right in saying that, subject to certain

safeguards about which we have learnt much recently,the new age will provide many new opportunities formany people.

(c) What are the Basic Power Requirements ?About 27 years separated Rutherford's success at

Cambridge from the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima,an explosion which has reverberated through everycountry in the world. It has rewritten internationalstrategy. Now, " an important stage has been reachedin the development of nuclear energy for peacepurposes " (21), and we are shown in the White Papera twenty-years plan which is as fascinating a peep intothe future as any modern space fiction.

By 1965 a quarter of our new generating capacitywill be met by nuclear power stations, but the WhitePaper is cautious about further progress, and rightlyso in view of the many unknowns that still have tobe met. But this uncertainty after 1965 underlinesthe power problem of Britain circa 1984. "Almostall supplies of energy in the U.K. are derived fromcoal and oil" (22)̂ and P.E.P. analyses their respectivemerits and possibilities in some detail. Bvit bothreports emphasise one apparently inescapableconclusion — that coal must be reinforced by nuclearpower to provide Britain with enough basic power.The White Paper forecasts a probable demand forelectricity up to 1975, and has this to say (Fig. 10).

But is this the last to say on this vital subject!Memories of recent power cuts are still vividly inmind, and to talk of Automation, which must usemore power per capita, without confidence in theavailability of enough bulk power, is absurd.

P.E.P. has attempted a further analysis of thesituation (23) and estimates that if we are to achievethe Butler target and its corresponding increase inoutput and power requirements " there will be adeficit equal to 100,000,000 tons of coal unless eitherBritain becomes a greater importer of coal or oilimports are raised to undreamt of levels and domesticrefinery capacity is expanded accordingly ".

How Automation Can Help the ProductionEngineer

You may be wondering whether as your President,I am, and if so when, going to talk about themechanics of Automation. My answer, withoutapology, is to say that before this Conference is overyou will be surfeited by technical advice, and begrateful for my restraint in launching upon you adescription of computers, feed-back systems andautomatic controls.

There are, too, other reasons for my restraint.One, I am only a specialist in generalities; two, inrecent years you have embraced the concept ofBroadening the Base, which involves a widening ofyour industrial scope and a raising of your mana-

(20) " Trade Unions' Fears about Automation " by HollaceRansdell. (G.I.O. News.)

(21) White Paper on "A Programme of Nuclear Power"—Cmd. 9389.

(22) " Planning " Vol. XXI. No. 377 — ' Fuel for TwentyYears'.

(23) " Towards the Automatic Factory " P.E.P. Broadsheetsheet No. 380, June, 1955.

416

gerial sights. The first impact of Automation willcome upon you, the supervisors and managers ofindustry, who must apply the new techniques at apoint where they help or hurt most, this is to thebody of men and women who make up the bulk ofthe organised working force, whose memories of thepast are still too often framed in black.

It has taken production engineers many years torealise that their work is successful only when it isaccepted by and implemented by men, and a briefsummary of the past may prove my point. ThisInstitution reflects the modern concept of productionas a specialism. We were born in 1920, followingthe realisation by a few pioneers that war and peacewould now be fought successfully only if thoseparticipating were supplied with more machine powerto multiply manpower. Lloyd George was the firstpolitician to see this clearly and to act accordingly.

Our early efforts were naturally concentrated onthe direct machines of production in the engineeringindustry — the lathes, millers, drills, etc. Thedevelopment of tungsten carbide as a cutting materialled to more detailed consideration of the tool onthe machine, and it is interesting to note that it hastaken at least 25 years for machines to be generallyredesigned to take advantage of cutting tool develop-ment. I doubt if it will take as long to utilise thenew electronic tools becoming available.

Fig. 11 shows what I believe to be the significantsteps in our development, and it is interesting totrace the pattern. First the productive machine it-self, then its tools and then an integration of the two,where both were considered as a team. From thisemerged more serious consideration of the produc-tive materials, how they were specified and movedfrom raw stage to finished parts and, through timeand motion study, how productivity could bemeasured and efforts rewarded. " Production Con-trol" was the broad term used.

Logically this brought managerial considerationsinto our orbit, with a growing realisation that man-management was a production engineer's job as wellas machine management. A review of our Journalsover the years shows clearly how these trends werereflected in Section activity.

A significant post-war trend is seen by our greatattention to materials handling, which enables us tomove materials more effectively between machine andmachine. Modern transfer machines, as describedby Bezier and Graves, are logical developments. Irecollect, in 1950, drawing attention to a simplecase, (Fig. 12), which illustrated the time lost by

THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTIONENGINEERING

MECHANISATION j

The Productive Machine ToolI The Cutting Tool

IThe Integration of the two.

IThe Productivity of the Machine and therewards of those who work on it (Production

Control.)I

Man-ManagementI

Material handling.I

Transfer MachineI

AUTOMATION

Fig. ii

what accountants call ' work-in-process:, and I call' work-in-stagnation '. Look at the average engin-eering works even today, and observe how muchmaterial is not, at any given time, being workedupon.

Automation Through Control PowerAnd now we have Automation, in many ways a

logical development of previous trends. Man willcontinue to have more power delivered to his elbowthrough higher-powered productive machines, andthrough lifting and shifting equipment linkingmachine to machine, factory door to factory door.Automation will enable this power to be used moreeffectively by giving more power to man's brain,helping him to control, assisting him to decide,relieving him of routine, providing—as Mr. Sargrovesays—more ' conscious ' machines.

Automation, then, is a logical successor to othertools placed at our disposal, such as tungsten carbide,fine measuring equipment, T.W.I., Work Study and

Progress of Part No.

Material storedWaiting time between machines ...Actual time on process

10 months =

Process time

Total time

1-3

7,998 • 3= :0016 percent.

7,200 hours797 hours

1 • 3 hours

7,998 • 3 hours

Fig. 12. Work in Stagnation.

417

material handling equipment. Why, therefore, arewe excited and possibly fearful about Automation?I believe the main reason is that while we may acceptthe idea that a machine should take over our brawn,it is quite another thing to agree that it should takeover our brains. Do you remember Capek (24) whocreated the " Automaton" and whose factorymanager in R.U.R. said " any one who has lookedinto human anatomy will have seen at once thatman is too complicated, and that a good engineercould make him more simply ". Wiener and Walterprovide us with modern analogies between theorganisms of machines and men, although Butler (25,brilliantly portrayed, over 50 years ago the possibledomination of man by the machine.

I fear nothing in Automation that I do not fearnow. It seems logical and inevitable that if we areto achieve a higher standard of life we must multiplyour brawn power, and this surely means that brainsmust be utilised more effectively in controlling andaugmenting our brawn. Automation, largely throughelectronic means, brings new and exciting tools toour aid, and as production engineers and managerswe should understand, explain and apply them as adirect contribution to a higher standard of life.

Diebold (26) says that " it is not difficult tounderstand why primary attention has been focussedon the control aspect of the automation problem. Itwas the electronic and communications research ofWorld War II that lifted the idea of a fully automaticfactory from the realm of science fiction into thatof serious discussion. The development of high-speeddigital computers, or ' giant brains', as well asmechanisms for directing guns upon rapidly movingaircraft, provided solutions to some of the mostimportant basic automatic control problems ".

So once again we find war as the hothouse whichforced the growth of discovery. The cold war, whichforces nations to spend a large part of total income

100

90

80

70

60

£ 50

" 10

30

20

10

0

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954

Fig. 13. Percentage of Taxation spent on Defence.

-

-

-

-

-

• s

V

- • % —

/U .S .A

,T BRITAIN

- ( N . A )

on defence research (Fig. 13) is likely to be with us foryears, and in defence research we often find inspira-tion and assistance for the works of peace. It isone way to obtain greater value from defence costand realising that probably more than 50% ofBritain's total electronics effort is being devoted todefence we must surely see that there is much tofind if we look.

How Can This Conference Help ?What are we likely to find at Margate ? In the

display of equipment and Papers is a wealth ofinformation and the men who should dig mostenergetically are the managers of industry, the menwho, because of the complexity of their tasks, requiremore help from modern tools than any other class.Will electronic computers and such complex controlequipment .help managerial effectiveness ? Yes, ifthey enable fewer, but more vital control statisticsto be available more quickly. Look at the casestudies at this Conference and enquire within whetherthey will make you, a manager, more effective—whether they will enable you to delegate to a sub-ordinate or a machine some of your existing pre-occupations and leave you with a nett gain in personaleffectiveness — whether you, for instance, will be ableto spend more than 23 minutes on any one job (27).

Will electronic accessories to the productivemachine such as described by Williamson and Stokesenable you, the manager, to be helped ? Rememberthat this type of equipment was developed becausea manager was worried by high tooling costs forsmall batches. Will the ultimate remedy be worsethan the malady ?

Will the greater precision of quality and quantityprovided by the weighing, batching and inspectionmachines described by Bourgeois and Sargrove helpyou to sell better goods more effectively ?

Will rapid electronic communications enablemembers of. the Board to decrease tiring travellingtime; for example, will the future televised AnnualGeneral Meeting on an I.T.A. hook-up be a retro-grade step, compared with the present method ofcollecting all shareholders in a London office ?

Will the instrument control systems described byYoung, McCallum and Peacock expand managerialknowledge and control, or will this increased help beneutralised by worries over maintenance problemsand personnel ?

Will Automation involve too much rigidity ofdesign in order to justify large scale production, orwill the designers be able to overcome this andprovide a nett gain by reducing unnecessary variety,cutting lead-time (28) and costs ?

Will the improved production control made possiblethrough such methods as those described by Hooper

(24) " R.U.R." by K. Capek.(25) " Erewhon ". The Book of the Machine. Samuel

Butler.(26) "Automation — The Advent of the Automatic

Factory " — by John Diebold.(27) Professor Sune Carlson in his book " Executive

Behaviour " says :- " Only 12 times in 35 days did theChief Executive work undisturbed in his office for aninterval of more than 23 minutes ".

418

be neutralised by an increasing reliance upon anddifficulty in controlling bought-out electronicspecialities ?

Will the ' remote control' possibilities of atomsand electrons relieve the mind of safety problems, orwill, as often, new techniques create new hazards ?

These are the sort of questions you are likely toask yourselves many times. They will probably differlittle from questions you have been asking for years:the principal difference is, that the future will bringrelatively more questions, more managers will haveto ask them, and much more personal strain willcome upon those who cannot find satisfactory answers.

Summing-UpIt is difficult, with such a subject, to know when

to stop but this is, after all, an opening address andnot a compendium. Let me, therefore, sum up andleave with you the more important points I haveendeavoured to make.

I assumed that the objective of Automation is toincrease our national standard of living, and as atarget I have used Mr. Butler's stated aim of adoubling of our national standard by, say, 1984.Every consideration of Automation, its problems, itspossibilities, is therefore linked to that doubledstandard of life for all and not merely to one sectionof our people.

The term "Automatic Factory " is misleading andmay be dangerous. It implies a restricted definitionof the word ' Factory', which is, after all, a placewhere many activities are performed, of which aminority of those employed may be machine mindersand likely, therefore, to be displaced by the machine.Automation may, however, be applied to a wide groupof departments and activities, including the office,and some sections of a factory may well be describedas Automatic, still however making it necessary forthe Company to employ as many and probably moreskilled people than before.

The First Industrial RevolutionIn considering the future we are wise to review the

past, how that conditioned the present and howexisting problems must be solved to achieve a success-ful future. I, therefore, went back to Britain's firstIndustrial Revolution and sketched briefly the forceswhich transformed Britain into the first workshop ofthe world, what caused that transformation and whatlegacy it has left with us today.

I believe that the first Industrial Revolution waspreceded and stimulated by at least two significantforces, one, a scientific revolution and two, a largescale development of commerce and its close friend,consumption. Demand and consumption were closelyallied to serve the masses.

The scientific revolution played its part in makingpossible large scale practical applications of whichthe steam engine, harnessed to rotary power, was thesignificant leader. This revolutionised industry bymaking possible the development of large factories andindustrial towns. It was, too, the catalyst whichencouraged many other discoveries and industriessuch as the textile, iron and steel, and machine tool.

An important part of the first Industrial Revolutionwas the great change which took place in man'sworking and social conditions. He was uprootedfrom a peasant village life to a factory existence inwhich many excesses were unfortunately committedin the name of production.

I summarised this period by saying that the firstIndustrial Revolution had three principal effects; it" widened the gap between rich and poor, novelty andcustom, and between town and country". I suggestedthat each of these gaps has been substantially re-duced in the subsequent years by other forces which,as often, correct excesses and restore balance. InAutomation we call it ' feed-back ! '.

These compensating forces have been numerous,the more important being new inventions such as theelectric motor and internal combustion engine, thegrowth of Trades Unions, and of a widely increasedsocial conscience, and, partly through this, a muchgreater understanding among managers and men ofman's place in his working environment and hisrelationship to the machine.

The Second Industrial RevolutionThis led us to an examination of a current question

which is becoming linked with Automation; "Are weon the eve of a second Industrial Revolution ? ".

My view is that the second Industrial Revolutionstarted some years ago " when a significant numberof people realised that in developing the machineage we had forgotten man ". The next few decadesof the second Industrial Revolution will " be devotedto a greater means of uplifting man's own power by(a) augmenting his brawn power through mechanisa-tion (b) augmenting his brain power through morecontrol power, and (c) controlling his emotion powerby better managerial power."

The significance of Automation as a tool of thesecond Industrial Revolution is its ability to multiplycontrol power which will be largely applied throughthe new possibilities of electronics, which, as Dieboldsuggests, developed widely during the last War andthrough computers and many other such devicesbrings to our aid a wide new range of controlpossibilities.

The Framework of AutomationIn order to dispel an erroneous impression that the

main purpose of Automation is to displace labour,I thought it desirable to examine our objective, adoubled standard of living, and to see what tasksits realisation would impose on industrial Britain. Iconsidered that three principal and several secondaryrequirements confronted us of which the mostimportant seemed to be :-

1. greater ability to translate research into realitymore quickly;

2. a wider and greater recognition of man'splace in the industrial community;

3. a considerable increase in personal productivity.

(28) Project Tinkertoy under the authority of the NationalBureau of Standards, U.S.A., claimed, inter alia, areduction in ' lead time' through Automation.

419

Some important limitations came to the surface inconsidering No. 3, the most prominent being :-

(a) the need to increase confidence in the future,and the necessity for accepting a greater rateof change;

(b) the need to reward skill more adequately;(c) the need to reconsider the power supplies

which must support our increased activities.

How Automation Can Help the ProductionEngineer

I endeavoured to show that Automation is a logicalextension to our work over many years, and it willcall for no major reconsideration of our attitude orthe way we apply our techniques. The emphasisover the next few decades will be on greater controlpower applied to greater mechanisation so that wemultiply brawn power more effectively through betterbrain power. A feature of Automation is that itmore easily provides this greater control power inmany ways, of which the so-called electronic ' brain 'is but one.

It is not easy to recognise the ability of even themost modern machine to take over part of ourbrain power. I believe with Kipling that " machinesare nothing more than children of your brain ", butsurely if we are to extend our ' control' we mustexpand what is essentially a ' brain ' task, and subjectto man's overall control and the limited instructionshe feeds into the machine, the latter, throughAutomation, is now capable of ' conscious' thought.Machines such as an electronic computer, or thosedescribed by Sargrove and others, have, within limits,a memory and an ability to produce information andto feed this information to other machines, whichthemselves may exercise the brawn power.

There is surely a great difference between, on onehand, regarding Automation as a rival to one'sbrain and, on the other, using it to augment andexpand one's own brain power.

Automatic Factory—Dream or Nightmare ?And so to my original question. I must come

back again to man, because all things includingAutomation are for his benefit. Automation doesnot call for a drastic reorientation of our outlook,although it does open up wide new possibilities, justas the jet engine opened up new possibilities to anaeronautic engineer and enabled him to go througha hitherto unpenetrated ' barrier '.

Its impact on managers concerns me most, becauseon them the strain of the future will continue to fall.Automation will provide many headaches but para-doxically it may, if it can augment the manager'scontrol power, ultimately help him. He should, Ibelieve, regard it as such a potential helpmate andthose who research and develop should particularlyendeavour to help the manager when designing newequipment or technique. More bulk power withoutmore control is useless and dangerous.

The impact of Automation on the mass of workingpeople, is not, in my view, likely to bring them newworries. The great expansion in mechanisation isconditioning men to accept change and the principaldifference will be seen in three ways:

(a) there will be a speed-up of change;(b) automation will bring mechanisation into a

wider group of industries and jobs;(c) the opportunities for skilled men will be

greater.There are, too, at least three ' feed-back ' forces

which will prevent instability and disorganisationamong the working force. First of all, some alwayslead and others follow : " For several generations ofgradual change the domestic and factory systemsexisted side by side" (29)̂ and even today we seewide variations in the performance of individualcompanies. There are some managers who haveprobably not heard of this Conference ! There arethose who say with truth that they started to applyAutomation years ago. Secondly, we are learningmuch about the better application of new methodsto those vitally affected. This is the importantbeginning of our second Industrial Revolution anddespite current difficulties let us remember that weare only at the beginning.

Thirdly, industry will provide its own ' feed-back 'control. Continued prosperity and full employmentwill stimulate Automation and other better methods,and as an American friend said recently : " It isfortunate that Automation comes in a period of greatdemand!" Any recession will cause a sharp reductionin the application of new ideas, in other words,Production and Productivity are closely allied.

Dream or nightmare ? I can do no better thanagain quote Walter Reuther (30) who recently saidthis :

" Without facts and study, we are apt to bumpinto the electronic-automatic age with a resoundingcrash. The least we can do is to use our humanradar equipment — our still imperfect, God-givenbrains and heart — to explore the future unknown.

" Our responses may be neither automatic norelectronic, but if they start with good will andimagination, there is no reason why all of us —workers, consumers, small businessmen, farmers andinvestors — should not benefit from the secondIndustrial Revolution."

One final comment about the fine display for whichwe are grateful to the exhibitors. Take time out tosee what is on show, and while here particularly lookout for one of the most spectacular exhibits at theConference.

It comes in a variety of sizes and specifications,weighing in its medium size about 160 lb. It hasa built-in computer complete with a fine memoryunit and feed-back controls. I would particularlyask you to examine its servo-control system and theease with which it can be adapted to a wide rangeof jobs. Unfortunately, it does require quite someskill to get full output from it but once set andreasonably maintained it performs a fine job. It has,too, the advantage that it can be reproduced by com-paratively unskilled labour. Its name ? A three-letter word beginning with ' M ' !

(29) "English Social History". G. M. Trevelyan.(30) " Workers Face the Age of Automation ". Walter P.

Reuther.

420