Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The AOA Match and the Future of Osteopathic Residency Positions: The Good News and the Bad News. MAME- March 7, 2012 Jon Rohrer, Ph.D., D.Min . [email protected] Associate Director. Perceptions. What is your perception about the future of osteopathic residency education? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
The AOA Match and the Future of Osteopathic Residency
Positions: The Good News and the Bad News
MAME- March 7, 2012
Jon Rohrer, Ph.D., D.Min.
Associate Director
Perceptions
What is your perception about the future of osteopathic residency education?
What is the evidential foundation of your perception about the future of osteopathic residency education?
What impact does this have on your sphere of influence and practice?
Presentation
Overview of trends for colleges of osteopathic medicine.
Summary of recent match results and positions
Review of LCME accredited schools and ACGME residency positions and the impact on the future of GME for osteopathic students
Observations and summary conclusions- good news bad news with not recommendations for response and application.
Total Enrollment in COMs1968-2010
Data drawn from the AACOM Annual Osteopathic Medical School Questionnaire
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
02468
10121416182022
Thousands
Total Enrollment
Total Enrollment1.879 2.780 4.221 6.212 6.614 7.822 9.882 11.857 12.525 13.406 14.409 15.634 16.893 18.143 19.427
Trends in COMs
Significant Increase in Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine
Exponential Growth in Enrollment of Osteopathic Students
Disconnect with Osteopathic GME
DOs in Residency Training, 1995-2009Totals in AOA and ACGME Programs*
*DOs in AOA/ACGME Accredited Programs are Counted Twice
Year AOA ACGME TotalPercent in
AOA
1995 2606 3333 5939 43.9
1996 2141 3288 5429 39.4
1997 2632 3367 5999 43.8
1998 2998 3639 6637 45.1
1999 2928 3869 6797 43.1
2000 2781 4175 6956 39.9
2001 2499 4658 7157 34.9
2002 2532 5327 7859 32.2
2003 2523 5838 8361 30.2
2004 2422 5675 8097 29.9
2005 2535 6474 9009 28.1
2006 2989 6629 9618 31.1
2007 3289 6784 10073 32.7
2008 4794 7237 12031 39.8
2009 5247 7628 12875 40.8
Trends in Osteopathic Matching1988-2011
*Data drawn from AOA Office of Education and the AACOM Annual Report
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Funded Slots Number Matched
No. of Non-Participants Unfilled Slots
Funded Slots 1515 1701 1799 1676 1877 1878 1814 1989 2147 2206 2312 2443 2553
Number Matched 1369 1257 1145 1385 1255 1353 1314 1291 1205 1196 1353 1473 1640
No. of Non-Participants 661 663 994 1212 1363 1356 1748 1992 2114
Unfilled Slots 146 502 654 291 622 525 500 698 942 1010 959 970 913
AOA Deficit in Residency Positions
2005 to 2012
.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.4
1.6
2.8
4
Thousands
Eligible DO Participants 2.908 2.886 3.173 3.600 3.899 4.106 4.581 5.014
Option 1 & 2 Slots 928 1.030 1.154 1.558 1.754 1.801 1.918 1.995
Residency Deficit 1.980 1.856 2.019 2.042 2.145 2.305 2.663 3.019
Positions Left Over in the AOA Match Program2006-2012
YearTraditional Internships
Family PracticeInternal
Medicine Other
Specialties
# of Unmatched
Students
Unfilled Positions
2006 615 170 93 132 123 1010
2007 534 180 88 120 182 922
2008 397 310 152 100 273 959
2009 422 306 173 101 361 1002
2010 379 339 174 78 423 970
2011 390 333 144 46 572 913
2012 351 302 142 93 606 888
Number of DOs in ACGME Residencies, 1992-2009 The Annual Number of DO Graduates, 1992-2009
92 94 96 98 OO O2 O4 O6 O8 O91200
2000
2800
3600
4400
5200
6000
6800
7600
DOs in ACGME Progs. No. of DO Grads.
DOs in ACGME Progs. 3137 3264 3288 3639 4176 5327 5675 6629 7237 7628
No. of DO Grads. 1532 1732 1932 2096 2279 2536 2769 2814 3462 3724
NRMP PGY-1 Slots 1975-2011Number of USMD and DO Graduates
Year PGY-1 SlotsUSMD Grads
DO Grads
1975 15691 12714 809
1980 18055 15135 1151
1985 18535 16400 1560
1990 20101 16179 1534
1995 20751 15892 1932
2000 20598 15714 2510
2005 21454 15761 2707
2010 22809 16427 3845
2011 23421 16893 4228
IMGs in ACGME Programs1995-2010
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32Thousands
Number
Number 24,982 24,703 25,531 25,41525.880 24,707 25,40325,78326,577 26.720 27,636 28,17628,824 29,48830,068 30,441
DOs In The NRMP1996-2011
Year No. of Applic. Active Applic. Matched PGY-1Unmatched PGY-
1
1996 1176 799 552 247
1997 1185 790 509 281
1998 1343 890 614 276
1999 1451 984 671 313
2000 1665 1150 823 327
2001 1793 1241 876 365
2002 1859 1316 933 383
2003 1937 1408 995 413
2004 2034 1559 1099 461
2005 2043 1524 1045 479
2006 2222 1509 1024 485
2007 2398 1652 1136 516
2008 2711 1870 1339 531
2009 2875 2015 1408 607
2010 2045 1444 601
2011 2178 1561 617
Number of DOs Scrambling*2006-2012
*Includes Current and Past Graduates
YearMatch
ParticipantsAOA Match
ResultsNRMP Match
ResultsNo. in
Scramble
2006 2886 1196 1024 6662007 3173 1267 1136 7702008 3600 1353 1339 9082009 3899 1433 1408 10582010 4106 1473 1444 118920112012
45815014
16401767
156113111380
Results of the 2010 Medical School Enrollment Survey June 2011- AAMC
Future Growth Trends: AAMC and AACOM Using a baseline of first year students enrolled in 2002, US MD
schools will increase by 22% from 16,488 to 20,181 by 2015.
Using a baseline of first year students enrolled in medical schools in 2002 US DO schools will increase enrollment by 102% from 3,079 to 6,222
By 2015, MD and DO schools will have a combined increase of 35%, producing almost 7,000 more new doctors every year compared to 2002.
2012 Match Projections for Osteopathic Students
The final picture will only be known after the NRMP.
2,352 Students did not participate in the AOA Match.
70% of osteopathic students applying to the NRMP match with a residency program
30% will not match (705)
705 unmatched NRMP +606 unmatched AOA match candidates= 1311 students that will seek to fill 888 slots that were unfilled in the AOA Match
Some may find positions in the NRMP SOAP Program
Educational Directions MSUCOM Graduates 2010 2011 2012 MSUCOM Grads
192
187
197
SCS Hospitals
137
138
138
Other AOA Programs
17
16
14
Military
10
7
7
Total AOA Programs
164
161
159
ACGME Programs
27
26
24*
Not Matched in AOA Match
13
*Not participating in AOA Match
MSUCOM: Top 10 Specialty Choices
AOA and ACGME Programs for 2010 and 2011
*Many Interns Matched to ACGME Advanced Residencies at the PGY-2 Level
2010 List of Top 10 Number 2011 List of Top 10 Number
Internal Medicine 42 Family Medicine 43
Family Medicine 41 Internal Medicine 43
Trad. Internship* 29 Emer. Medicine 17
Emer. Medicine 22 OB/GYN 17
Anesthesiology 12 Trad. Internship* 12
Pediatrics 12 Pediatrics 12
PM&R 9 Neurology 9
General Surg. 8 Psychiatry 7
Orthopedic Surg. 8 Orthopedic. Surg. 7
OB/GYN 5 General Surg. 4
SCS Composition by COMYears 2000-2011
COM 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MWU/AZCOM 19 27 33 40 41 44 38 34 37 46 54
MWU/CCOM 52 51 58 46 46 54 44 56 74 71 61 66
NSUCOM 52 57 58 46 49 53 52 56 67 63 57 59
DMU/COM 159 141 134 110 88 90 117 120 130 120 124 113
KCUMB/COM 81 95 98 93 92 113 108 119 128 132 134 132
ATSU/KCOM 136 136 127 116 102 113 101 94 94 93 91 108
LECOM 4 19 24 23 35 61 73 79 113 112 105 96
UNECOM 18 19 13 9 9 9 13 20 17 18 17 14
MSUCOM 323 367 364 333 365 377 366 401 384 425 457 493
UMDNJSOM 4 6 6 5 1 1 7 6 4 6 5 6
NYCOM 8 13 17 13 19 18 25 20 15 13 14 14
OUCOM 14 22 22 21 17 17 18 18 17 24 20 22
OSUCOM 17 11 8 5 6 8 14 13 20 22 19 13
PCOM 20 28 23 23 21 26 22 22 20 17 20 22
PCSOM 6 8 10 12 8 17 25 37 39 46 43
UNTHSCTCOM
20 15 16 15 14 22 25 23 27 28 22 19
TUCOM/CA 8 13 19 30 34 42 41 48 41 48 37
WVCOM 12 17 19 17 18 18 17 24 29 22 20 24
WU/COMP 56 55 46 42 36 36 42 44 36 42 46 46
VCOM 4 11 16 24 29
LECOM-FL 17 30 31 41
TUNCOM/NV 12 25 40 45
PCOM/GA 0 8 13 21
TUCOM/NY 0 0 0 4
RVUCOM 0 0 0 0
LMUCOM 0 0 0 18
ATSU/SOMA 0 0 0 8
PNWUCOM 0 0 0 0
TOTALS 976 1085 1081 979 1000 1099 1147 1223 1336 1404 1460 1547
SCS Intern and Resident/Fellows Numbers2000 to 2011
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Rotating Interns
Residents/Fellows
Totals in OGME
Rotating Interns 143 139 154 129 157 155 137 163 95 94 67 67
Residents/Fellows 867 812 812 883 891 979 10511115 1291 1366 1463 1549
Totals in OGME 1010 951 966 1012 1048 1134 11881278 1386 14601530 1616
SCS Primary Care vs. Non-Primary Care
2000 to 2011 Minus the Intern Count
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Primary Care 367.5318.5 281.5 289.5 261.5 276 298 316 353 368 416.5 463.5
Non-Primary Care 499.5493.5 530.5 593.5 629.5 703 753 804 951 998 1046.51085.5
SCS Hospital Match Summary SCS hospitals offered 436 slots for the AOA match (16% of the 2,655
positions offered nationally.)
347 slots have filled, leaving 89 vacant positions
Majority of the unfilled slots are traditional internships (33), family medicine (26), and internal medicine (14).
Given the number of students that did not match nationally in the AOA match (606) and the projected number that will not match in the NRMP, it is assumed that all open SCS slots will be filled.
Good News Bad NewsGood News
Osteopathic Colleges will continue to grow.
Hospitals with osteopathic slots will fill their positions
\Michigan will be a destination for osteopathic students seeking osteopathic residencies, particularly in the surgical specialties
Bad News
GME will not grow to meet the demands of the growth in osteopathic graduates.
The number of osteopathic students will increase
The increase in MSUCOM graduates will narrow the availability of residency slots in Michigan
Good News Bad NewsGood News
The COCA Study Group on Osteopathic Graduate Medical Education has published a report on recommended requirements for osteopathic GME
The AOA has formulated a Blue Ribbon Panel to propose solutions to the AOA BOE and BOT
Bad News
Measures recommended are too little too late
At this point, no one knows what the recommendations will entail.
Conclusion: Multiple Factors in Play With No Immediate Solutions
Combined first year MD and DO enrollment in 2015 is projected to be 26,403, 35% above 2002.
Increase in GME slots shows no significant projected increase to correspond to the increase of students as the disparity between student and GME slots worsens.
Osteopathic dependence on ACGME programs will increase at a time when MD students and IMGs grow in number.
Osteopathic medicine will remain rooted in primary care.
ACGME guidelines will restrict access of residents trained osteopathically.
All this against the projected shortage of physicians by 2020.
Good News Bad News
Osteopathic dependence on ACGME programs will increase
Osteopathic medicine will remain rooted in primary care
The disparity between students and GME slots will worsen
