The All Hazards Risk Assessment Presentation to the Risk
Assessment User Group Wednesday, January 9, 2013 The All Hazards
Risk Assessment Presentation to the Risk Assessment User Group
Wednesday, January 9, 2013 Slide 2 Outline of the Presentation
Background of the AHRA Principles of the Government of Canadas All
Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA) initiative Demonstrate utility of
using an all hazards approach Science and technological integration
Results from the previous cycles The AHRA process AHRA Taxonomy
AHRA Methodology Outputs from the AHRA Heat maps Fiche 1 Slide 3 2
In 2007, Emergency Management Act (EMA) passed: Ministers must
identify risks within their area of responsibility, prepare plans
and maintain, test, implement and exercise those emergency
management plans In 2007, DRDC CSS began exploring the development
of an AHRA In 2009, Public Safety began championing the initiative
and leads: An interdepartmental consultation to better understand
the risk assessment environment A two-year pilot project to develop
an AHRA In 2011, Assistant Deputy Minister (ADM) safety and
security level committee is briefed on status of AHRA: Results of
the pilot are provided Approval to proceed with second spiral/cycle
of assessments is granted In Winter 2012 results were presented and
endorsed by ADM EMC members Background AHRA Slide 4 3 Principles
All Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA) q Purpose Support effective EM
planning in federal institutions through coordinated approach to
risk assessment articulates the Federal Policy for Emergency
Management and complements the EM Planning Guide. q Federal Scope
Supports Ministers in meeting their legislative responsibility
under the EM Act to identify risks within or related to their
mandate and develop EM plans in respect of those risks. All Hazards
Approach A mechanism for assessing and comparing all hazards
regardless of the source or vector (whether malicious or
non-malicious). Integrated Approach Provides a Government of Canada
picture rather than an individual perspective from each department
supports federal priority setting and Public Safetys leadership
coordination role. Slide 5 A Collaboratively Developed Methodology
Inspired by risk assessment approaches undertaken by the United
Kingdom and the Netherlands During the methodology development
stage and the pilot process, PS engaged 26 federal institutions
Smaller working groups have been developed to: Determine scenarios
to address Validate results Work on specific aspects of the
methodology Buy in from federal institutions was key and provided
legitimacy for the process PS relies on experts from federal
institutions who are closest to the Impact Category to provide an
assessments of the scenario Institutions CAN modify the methodology
to meet their own planning needs. 4 Slide 6 CLASSIFICATION Process
AHRA Risk Taxonomy 5 Slide 7 6 Methodology - Government of Canada
AHRA Process Slide 8 AHRA Methodology Impact Categories Impact
Assessment Impact Assessment People Economy Environment Territorial
Security Territorial Security Canadas Reputation & Influence
Canadas Reputation & Influence Society & Psycho-social
Slide 9 8 AHRA Methodology Likelihood / Probability Through
elicitation, experts provide qualitative judgment by considering
overall capability (technical feasibility and enabling
capabilities) and intent. Confidence level recorded. Calibration
process follows. Likelihood for malicious scenarios Quantitative
approach by which experts draw on historical data to determine the
probability. Confidence level recorded. Likelihood for
natural/accidental hazards Likelihood assessment Two approaches to
determine likelihood are used: Slide 10 Methodology - AHRA Risk
Scoring Tool An Excel-based spreadsheet was developed to record
discussions and impact assessments from federal experts. 9 Slide 11
10 AHRA Business Cycle Slide 12 Process - Output AHRA Heat Map 11
Risk results for six scenarios aggregated across six impact
categories People Economy Environment Canadas reputation and
influence Territorial security Society and psycho-social Slide 13
Process - Output AHRA Scenario Fiche 12 Brief scenario description
Collaborative rating of scenario impacts and likelihood Analysis of
scenario outcome &graph demonstrating confidence levels Slide
14 Leveraging the AHRA to inform: AHRA EM policy & program
development Emergency management planning Security &
intelligence National and international collaboration Training,
exercises, lessons learned Long Term Objective: A National Risk
Assessment that identifies risks to Canada and enhances the safety
and security of Canadians. Product: National Risk Register
Informing and validating SEMPs Explore Expanding AHRA to National
Scope Assessing Capabilities Current Scope 2012/13 Slide 15 Lessons
Learned and Leading Practices Lessons Learned: Engage experts early
and frequently in development and validation of methodology builds
credibility. But, be prepared to bring development of methodology
to a close and commit to update it on an annual basis satisfies
scientists that new techniques can be incorporated and lets process
move forward. Promote ownership through multilevel governance
process that engages scientists/experts as well as senior managers
let colleagues be your ambassadors. Provide a road map for partners
hard to do when process is new but keeps everyone on board. Dont
let data gaps stop you create a parking lot for new ideas and
assign a lead. Lessons Learned: Engage experts early and frequently
in development and validation of methodology builds credibility.
But, be prepared to bring development of methodology to a close and
commit to update it on an annual basis satisfies scientists that
new techniques can be incorporated and lets process move forward.
Promote ownership through multilevel governance process that
engages scientists/experts as well as senior managers let
colleagues be your ambassadors. Provide a road map for partners
hard to do when process is new but keeps everyone on board. Dont
let data gaps stop you create a parking lot for new ideas and
assign a lead. Leading Practices: Work through networks to identify
the right experts for risk scenarios and risk scoring experts
wanted to be involved and never said no. Be prepared: Experts did
research beforehand and came to workshops with data in hand. Let
experts decide: Brought intelligence community together to develop
methodology for assessing likelihood of malicious threats. Sought
formal feedback at each stage of process in order to course correct
and improve it in subsequent years. Knowledge transfer: Federal
organizations using AHRA Methodology to conduct additional risk
assessments and upload their results to whole-of-government
process. Leading Practices: Work through networks to identify the
right experts for risk scenarios and risk scoring experts wanted to
be involved and never said no. Be prepared: Experts did research
beforehand and came to workshops with data in hand. Let experts
decide: Brought intelligence community together to develop
methodology for assessing likelihood of malicious threats. Sought
formal feedback at each stage of process in order to course correct
and improve it in subsequent years. Knowledge transfer: Federal
organizations using AHRA Methodology to conduct additional risk
assessments and upload their results to whole-of-government
process. 14 Slide 16 Success Stories AHRA Methodology Health
Portfolio Scenarios Various Federal Exercises Collaboration -
Collaboration with experts across federal organizations
Collaboration with CSS Outreach activities SEMP International DRM
Framework deliverable for G20 Finance Ministers 15 Slide 17 16
Proposed Forward Approach for AHRA Expand AHRA for Capability
Assessment Pilot Capability Assessment with a select number of
scenarios Step 1: Environmental Scan Step 2: Risk Assessment Step
3: Capability Assessment Step 4: Recommended Options Explore
expanding the scope of the AHRA beyond the federal community to
include P/Ts and/or regions Explore expanding AHRA in select P/Ts
or regions Slide 18 17 Connie Cheung Senior Policy Advisor
Emergency Management and Planning Division
[email protected] Julie Cranton Chief, AHRA and IDO
Emergency Management and Planning Division
[email protected][email protected]
