Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
4th
Inte
rnat
iona
lCon
fere
nce
on„I
CT
as D
rive
rsof
Dev
elop
men
tin
Tran
sitio
nE
cono
mie
s”T
IGE
R, L
eon
Koź
miń
skiA
cade
my
ofE
ntre
pren
eurs
hip
and
Man
agem
ent
14 M
ay20
04
The
Agg
rega
teC
ontr
ibut
ion
ofIC
T to
O
utpu
tand
Lab
our
Prod
uctiv
ityin
Tra
nsiti
onE
cono
mie
s
Mar
cin
Piąt
kow
ski
TIG
ER
Age
nda
Mot
ivat
ion
for r
esea
rch
Res
earc
hhy
poth
eses
Impa
ctof
ICT
on o
utpu
tand
labo
urgr
owth
•IC
T pr
oduc
tion
•IC
T us
e•
Incr
ease
inTF
P in
the
ICT
sect
or•
Spill
over
effe
ctso
fIC
T pr
oduc
tion
and
use
Det
erm
inan
tsof
the
prod
uctiv
eus
eof
ICT
Futu
reim
pact
ofIC
T –
cont
ribut
ion
to g
row
thin
Pola
ndun
til20
25C
oncl
usio
nsan
dpo
licy
reco
mm
enda
tions
Mot
ivat
ion
for
rese
arch
Lack
ofqu
antit
ativ
ees
timat
esof
the
impa
ctof
ICT
on g
row
thin
trans
ition
econ
omie
sLa
ckof
anal
yses
ofth
epo
tent
ialo
fIC
T fo
r fas
ter
conv
erge
nce
with
deve
lope
dco
untri
esIn
suff
icie
ntun
ders
tand
ing
ofth
eec
onom
ic,
inst
itutio
nal
and
regu
lato
ry
dete
rmin
ants
ofdi
ffus
ion
and
prod
uctiv
eus
eof
ICT
Res
earc
hhy
poth
eses
ICT
cont
ribut
edto
acc
eler
atio
nin
outp
utan
dla
bour
prod
uctiv
itygr
owth
inse
lect
edtra
nsiti
onec
onom
ies
durin
g19
95-2
001
and
henc
eto
cat
chin
g-up
on th
eEU
-15
coun
tries
ICT
are
likel
yto
be
one
ofth
edr
iver
sof
inco
me
conv
erge
nce
until
2025
th
roug
hst
imul
atio
nof
rest
ruct
urin
gon
the
mac
ro, i
ndus
tryan
dm
icro
leve
lH
igh
leve
lof
deve
lopm
ent
ofth
eec
onom
ic, i
nsitu
tiona
lan
dre
gula
tory
fram
ewor
kis
prer
equi
site
to w
ide
diff
usio
nan
dpr
oduc
tive
use
ofIC
T in
the
trans
ition
econ
omie
s
Impa
ctof
ICT
on
grow
th
Four
chan
nels
:
I.IC
T pr
oduc
tion,
whi
chdi
rect
lyco
ntrib
utes
to a
nin
crea
sein
the
aggr
egat
eva
lued
adde
dge
nera
ted
inan
econ
omy;
II
.In
crea
sein
tota
lfac
torp
rodu
ctiv
ity(T
FP) i
nth
eIC
T se
ctor
, w
hich
cont
ribut
esto
gro
wth
inag
greg
ate
TFP
inth
ew
hole
econ
omy;
III.
The
effe
ct o
f IC
T in
vest
men
t on
grow
th th
roug
h ca
pita
l de
epen
ing
or su
bstit
utio
nIV
.In
crea
sein
TFP
inno
n-IC
Tpr
oduc
ing
sect
orsd
ueto
sp
illov
eref
fect
sofI
CT
prod
uctio
nan
dus
e
I. C
ontr
ibut
ion
ofIC
T p
rodu
ctio
nto
G
DP
grow
th19
95-2
001
And
labo
urpr
oduc
tivity
…
II. M
etho
dolo
gy-I
CT
sect
orco
ntri
butio
nto
TFP
gro
wth
Bas
edon
gro
ssou
tput
and
Dom
arw
eigh
tsm
etho
dolo
gy:
Insu
ffic
ient
data
on
indu
stry
-leve
l cap
ital s
ervi
ce in
put
mea
sure
s and
def
lato
rs fo
r bot
h in
put a
nd o
utpu
t=>
TFP
sect
orgr
owth
rate
sin
CEE
and
EU c
ount
riesa
re b
ased
on
data
for t
heU
S IC
T in
dust
ries(
Jorg
enso
net
al.
2002
, Tim
mer
et a
l. 20
03).
Dat
afr
om I/
O ta
bles
for t
he C
EE c
ount
ries i
s not
suff
icie
nt to
ca
lcul
ate
Dom
arw
eigh
ts. H
ence
, iti
sass
umed
that
the
ratio
be
twee
n IC
T se
ctor
val
ue a
dded
and
Dom
arw
eigh
ts fo
r the
EU
-15
is th
e sa
me
for t
he fo
ur C
EE c
ount
ries:
Cze
ch R
epub
lic,
Hun
gary
, Pol
and
and
Slov
akia
Sinc
eno
ne o
f the
CEE
cou
ntrie
s pro
duce
s sem
icon
duct
ors a
nd
mic
ropr
oces
sors
,TFP
gro
wth
rate
sin
CEE
cou
ntrie
s in
“ele
ctro
nic
com
pone
nts”
(mos
tly se
mic
ondu
ctor
s and
m
icro
proc
esso
rs) a
ssum
edto
equ
alth
eTF
P gr
owth
rate
for
“tel
ecom
mun
icat
ions
equ
ipm
ent”
.
II. I
CT
sect
orco
ntri
butio
nto
ag
greg
ate
TFP
gro
wth
III.
Met
hodo
logy
-con
trib
utio
nof
ICT
cap
italt
o gr
owth
…G
row
thac
coun
ting
met
hodo
logy
(Pia
tkow
ski,
2003
b):
1.in
vest
men
t ser
ies f
or IC
T ba
sed
on W
ITSA
; for
tota
l in
vest
men
t fro
m W
orld
Ban
k W
DI (
2000
, 200
3) a
nd
com
plem
enta
ry so
urce
s
2.H
arm
oniz
edpr
ice
inde
xfo
r IC
T in
vest
men
tbas
edon
IC
T de
flato
rsfo
r the
US
(Jor
gens
onet
al..
200
3)
3.La
bour
com
pens
atio
nsh
ares
base
don
dat
a fr
omna
tiona
lsta
tistic
tical
offic
espl
us se
nsiti
vity
anal
ysis
III.
Con
trib
utio
nof
ICT
cap
italt
o G
DP
grow
th
18,8
%0,
460,
840,
460,
812,
42E
U-1
5
23,2
%0,
820,
900,
820,
753,
52U
SA
13,1
%2,
490,
200,
540,
874,
10Sl
oven
ia
13,5
%2,
75-0
,35
0,55
1,15
4,10
Slov
akia
8,3%
2,17
-0,1
70,
09-0
,97
1,12
Rus
sia
28,3
%1,
84-1
,35
0,22
0,08
0,79
Rom
ania
11,5
%2,
050,
230,
551,
984,
81Po
land
19,4
%2,
380,
180,
710,
373,
64H
unga
ry
32,2
%0,
62-0
,28
0,73
1,20
2,27
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
88,4
%1,
55-0
,60
0,45
-0,8
90,
51B
ulga
ria
18,0
%1,
98-0
,27
0,48
0,47
2,67
CE
E-8
Shar
e of
ICT
capi
tal i
n G
DP
grow
thTF
PLa
bour
forc
eIC
T ca
pita
lN
on-IC
T ca
pita
lG
DP
grow
th
IV. I
CT
spill
over
effe
cts
Pote
ntia
lfor
ICT
spill
over
s…IC
T (I
nter
net)=
>fas
ter p
rodu
ctio
n, d
iffus
ion,
and
shar
ing
of
know
ledg
e=>
fast
er p
ace
of in
nova
tion=
>inc
reas
e in
pr
oduc
tivity
gro
wth
rate
s;
ICT
acce
lera
te d
iffus
ion
of e
xist
ing
know
ledg
e th
roug
h im
itatio
n, a
dopt
ion
and
diff
usio
n of
bus
ines
s mod
els,
idea
s and
th
roug
h im
prov
ing
acce
ss to
info
rmat
ion;
ICT
tend
to st
imul
ate
chan
ges i
n bu
sine
ss m
odel
s and
in
crea
sed
inve
stm
ents
in h
uman
cap
ital a
t the
firm
leve
l. Th
ese
posi
tivel
y co
ntrib
ute
to in
crea
se in
pro
duct
ivity
; IC
T –
sim
ilarly
to e
arlie
r tec
hnol
ogic
al re
volu
tions
bas
ed o
n ge
nera
l-pur
pose
tech
nolo
gies
(ele
ctric
ity, c
ombu
stio
n en
gine
) –
may
in fu
ture
find
yet
unk
now
n ap
plic
atio
ns, w
hich
cou
ld
enha
nce
over
all p
rodu
ctiv
ity g
row
th.
Agg
rega
teco
ntri
butio
nof
ICT
to G
DP
grow
th, 1
995-
2001
And
labo
urpr
oduc
tivity
…
Det
erm
inan
tsof
ICT
use
„New
Eco
nom
yIn
dica
tor”
ran
king
…
-13
375
23R
ussi
a
-12.
063
22R
oman
ia
-10.
372
21B
ulga
ria
-7.0
4220
Pola
nd
-5.6
7019
Slov
akia
-5.3
9918
Gre
ece
-3.1
0216
Spai
n
-3.1
4117
Italy
-2.1
6315
Hun
gary
-1.0
6014
Czec
h Re
p.
-0.1
8013
Slov
enia
1.34
012
Fran
ce
2.07
611
Portu
gal
3.10
510
Ger
man
y
5.16
27
USA
5.02
18
Aus
tria
4.85
79
Finl
and
5.62
46
Bel
gium
6.34
34
UK
6.21
05
Irela
nd
7.33
13
Den
mar
k
8.00
12
Net
herla
nds
9.88
21
Swed
en
Val
ue 1
995-
2001
Ran
kC
ount
ry
Pote
ntia
lofI
CT
inve
stm
ents
for
GD
P gr
owth
inPo
land
until
2025
Ass
umpt
ions
:1.
Empl
oym
ent w
ill g
row
by
0.5%
ann
ually
unt
il 20
25. T
his w
ould
tran
slat
e –
cete
ris p
arib
us–
into
the
unem
ploy
men
t lev
el o
f 7%
at t
he e
nd o
f the
pe
riod.
2.D
epre
ciat
ion
rate
for n
on-I
CT
capi
tal:
7.5%
ann
ually
; for
IT h
ardw
are,
so
ftwar
e an
d co
mm
unic
atio
ns e
quip
men
t: 29
.5%
, 31.
5% a
nd 1
1.5%
, re
spec
tivel
y.3.
Labo
r com
pens
atio
n sh
are
in to
tal i
ncom
e to
am
ount
to 6
5% th
roug
hout
the
perio
d 4.
TFP
grow
th: 1
.5%
ann
ually
(ver
sus 2
,05%
on
aver
age
durin
g 19
95-2
001)
. 5.
ICT
hedo
nic
pric
e de
flato
r: pr
ices
of I
T ha
rdw
are,
softw
are
and
com
mun
icat
ions
equ
ipm
ent u
ntil
2025
will
dec
reas
e at
an
aver
age
hedo
nic
rate
equ
al to
the
1990
-200
1 av
erag
e ra
te fo
r the
US,
that
is, r
espe
ctiv
ely,
20
.7%
, 1.3
% a
nd 3
.2%
ann
ually
.6.
Non
-IC
T de
flato
r: 3%
ann
ual g
row
th.
7.In
crea
se in
real
inve
stm
ents
in IC
T (b
efor
e de
flatio
n w
ith h
edon
ic p
rice
inde
x): 5
, 10%
and
15%
ann
ually
.8.
Incr
ease
in re
al n
on-I
CT
inve
stm
ents
: 5%
ann
ually
.
Con
trib
utio
nto
GD
P gr
owth
…
20,0
%1,
500,
320,
851,
592,
434,
2615
%
15,0
%1,
500,
320,
601,
592,
194,
0110
%
9,3%
1,50
0,32
0,35
1,59
1,94
3,76
5%
Shar
e of
ICT
in G
DP
grow
th
TFP
Labo
urfo
rce
ICT
ca
pita
lN
on-I
CT
capi
tal
Tota
l ca
pita
lG
DP
grow
thR
eal r
ate
of
grow
th in
IC
T in
vest
men
ts*
ICT
iske
yto
futu
regr
owth
…Si
mpl
e, p
ost-t
rans
ition
grow
thre
serv
esar
eby
now
alm
ost
exha
uste
d.In
futu
re, f
asto
utpu
tand
LP g
row
thw
ill h
ave
to re
lym
ostly
on
grow
thin
TFP,
whi
chw
ill n
ot b
e po
ssib
lew
ithou
tsus
tain
edpr
ogre
ssin
econ
omic
rest
ruct
urin
g(in
par
ticul
arof
the
serv
ice
sect
or) b
ased
on th
eus
eof
ICT
Inve
stm
ents
inIC
T ha
veto
be
com
plem
ente
dw
ithch
ange
sin
orga
niza
tiona
lstru
ctur
esan
din
crea
sein
ICT
skill
soft
hela
bour
forc
e
ICT
pro
vide
addi
tiona
lop
port
uniti
es..
Impl
emen
tatio
nof
ICT
islik
ely
to st
imul
ate
fast
erpr
oduc
tivity
grow
thon
the
firm
leve
l(sp
illov
eref
fect
s)N
ew, y
etun
know
nap
plic
atio
nsof
ICT
can
infu
ture
cont
ribut
eto
incr
ease
inpr
oduc
tivity
Yet
, mor
etim
e is
need
edfo
r firm
sto
lear
nto
pro
duct
ivel
yus
eIC
T –
CEE
cou
ntrie
sto
fully
bene
fitaf
ter2
010
Polic
yre
com
men
datio
nsC
ondu
cive
over
allb
usin
esse
nviro
nmen
t–m
acro
econ
omic
stab
ility
, low
adm
inis
trativ
eba
rrie
rs, t
rans
pare
nt a
ndef
fect
ive
regu
latio
nsC
ompe
titio
n, c
ompe
titio
n, c
ompe
titio
n!D
evel
opm
ento
fpub
lice-
serv
ices
(pus
hst
rate
gy)
Impl
emen
tatio
nof
publ
ice-
proc
urem
ents
yste
ms
Polit
ical
prio
rity
for I
CT
Prom
otio
nof
bene
fitso
fIC
T us
eam
ong
busi
ness
esan
din
divi
dual
sIn
crea
sed
outla
yson
ICT
train
ing
(IC
T „d
rivin
glic
ence
s”,
lifel
ong
lear
ning
)
