TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Strategic Perspectives on Technology Innovation 1 Krsto Pandza - Technology Management

Krsto Pandza - Technology Management 1TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

Strategic Perspectives on Technology Innovation

Krsto Pandza - Technology Management

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Learning objectives for the moduleDevelop understanding of: The role technology dynamics play in creating

economic growth of societies and competitive advantage of firms.

Different types of technology innovation. Appropriateness of different analytical tools for

forecasting and analysing technological change. Trade-offs between exploration and exploitation. Science and technology-driven entrepreneurial

process. Social nature of shaping technological trajectories.


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The structure for the week 1

DAY 1: Technology dynamics, competitive advantage and Strategic analysis of technology.

DAY 2. Managing technology innovation in open environment (Kodak and Intel case studies).

DAY 3: Corporate entrepreneurship and technology commercialization.

DAY 4: Presentations and wrap-up.

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Concepts and constructs


Innovation

StrategyTechnology

Entrepreneurship

V A L U E

Artefacts and knowledge by which human capacity is extended

Novel ways of creating and adding value

How opportunities to create value are identified, evaluated and exploited

Major intended and emergent initiatives involving utilization of resources to enhance the performance

Krsto Pandza - Technology Management 5

TECHNOLOGY DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Day 1


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Learning objectives

Understand the dynamics of technology progression.

Identify technology innovation as an engine of economical growth.

Define different types of innovation and discontinuities in technology development.

Discuss the influence of technological change for competitive advantage of firms.


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Defining technology 1

Technology is artificial as opposite to natural It is created/manufactured by humans

Technology may be regarded as simply the “way things are done” It is a set of practices Relevant in the context of use

A set of processes, tools, methods, procedures and equipment to produce goods or service


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Defining technology 2

Any tool or technique, any product or process, any physical equipment or method of doing or making by which human activity is extended Enhance transformation power of humans Extend human capacity

Technology refers to the organisation of people and artefacts for acheiving specific goals


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Defining technology management Technology management addresses the

effective identification, selection, acquisition, development, exploitation and protection of technologies needed to create and sustain competitive advantage of firms and wider social wellbeing.


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Defining technology strategy

Technology strategy is the total pattern of decisions, that a firm takes to obtaining and using technology to achieve a new competitive advantage, or to sustain an existing technology-oriented competitive advantage against erosion. Uncertain technological change IP management Different mechanisms for assessing market

needs


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Defining innovation

Invention, creation of novel ideas that demand allocation of resources.

Innovation, process by which invention is transformed into products and/or services that add value to customers.


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Defining strategy (SMJ, 2007, Vol. 28, pp. 935 –

955)

….the major intended and emergent initiatives Strategy, innovation, acquisition, investment, operations,

diversification, learning, activity… …taken by managers on behalf of owners

Top, incentives, board, director, CEO, agency, ownership …involving utilization of resources

Stock, capability, assets, technology, competency, financial, product, ties, slack, knowledge

….to enhance the performance Growth, advantage, returns, decline, dominance,

…of firms Firm, business, company, corporate, multibusiness, SBU,

subsidiary …in their external environment

Industry, competition, market, enviroment, contingency, uncertainty, threats, risk

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Defining resources and capabilities


…when firms have resorces/capabilities that are valuable, rare, inimitable, and nonsubstitutable, they can acheive sustainable competitive advantage by implementing value creating strategies that cannot be easily duplicated by competing firms.

Resources are firm-specific assets that are difficult if not impossible to imitate.

Capabilities are those combination of resources and processes that together underpin competitive advantage for a specific firm competing in a particular product/service market.

A capability is conceptualised as collectively held and action oriented knowledge that enables firms to get things done.

Dynamic capabilities are defined as the firm’s ability to integrate, build, and reconfigure internal resources and capabilities to address rapidly changing environment.

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Creative destruction and economic growth - 1


Competitive advantage arises from a firm’s entrepreneurial ability to exploit market shocks and discontinuities.

Joseph Schumpeter used the term “creative destruction” to new sources of competitive advantages displacing the established ones.

Schumpeter considered static efficiency - allocative efficiency at a point in time - to be less important than dynamic efficiency.

Society benefits much more from competition between new products, new technologies and new forms of organization than from price competition.


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Creative destruction and economic growth - 2

Creative destruction implies that the isolating mechanisms that protect a firm’s competitive advantage will not be permanent.

The life expectancy of a competitive advantage shrinks as technology and tastes change rapidly.

During the period of quiet firms that posses superior products and technology earn economic profits

Entrepreneurs who exploit the opportunities created by the shocks enjoy economic profits during the next period of quiet

Firms are said to enter a state of hypercompetition state when competitive advantages can only be sustained for very short periods.

According to Richard D’Aveni, several industries are in this state and firms in these industries can sustain their economic profits only by continually seeking new sources of competitive advantage.


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Dimensions of innovations

Incremental

(doing what we do better)

Radical

(new to the world)

(new to the enterprise)

Component level

System level

Improvements to component

New component for existing systems

Advanced materials to improve component performance

New versions of motor car, aeroplane, TV

New generations

e.g. MP3 Vs CD

Steam power, ICT “revolution”,

Bio-technology


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Incremental Vs Radical

Incremental innovation Continuations of existing products,

methods or practices

Minor improvements made with existing methods and technology

Evolutionary as opposed to revolutionary Radical innovation

Totally new products or services

Considerable change in basic technologies and methods

Revolutionary ideas that can create new markets


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Dynamics of product and process innovation

New products offering improvements in functional characteristics, technical abilities, ease of use, or other dimensions (incremental or radical)

New techniques of producing goods or services Improve the effectiveness or efficiency of production processes. Facilitate the discovery of underlying scientific properties of technological domains


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Utterbank-Abernathy Dynamic Model of Technology Innovation

Fluid phase

Transitional phase

Specific phase

• Technological and market uncertainties

• custom design

• experiments in the market niches

• no process innovation

• Learning

• standardisation

• dominat design

• Incremental innovation

• Process innovation

• Economy of scope


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Handerson and Clark model of innovation

Changed

Unchanged

Core concepts

Incremental

innovations

Modular Innovation

Architectural Innovation

Radical Innovation

Reinforced

Overturned

Lin

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es b

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een

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Tushman-Anderson Dynamic Model of Technology Innovation

• Technologies evolve through periods of incremental change punctuated by technological breakthroughs that eater enhance or destroy the competences of established companies

• Competence-destroying discontinuities will be initiated by new entrants

• Competence-enhancing discontinuities will be initiated by existing firms


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Moore’s law - trajectory


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Technology roadmap; High-k


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Tushman-Anderson Dynamic Model of Technology Innovation

A technological discontinuity will not itself become a dominant design.

First versions of the new technology do not become industry standards (despite first-mover advantage).

The highest the complexity of innovation the bigger is the influence of nontechnical factors in establishing a dominant design.


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Disruptive Technologies – What are they?

They create new markets by introducing a new kind of product or service.

The new product or service from the new technology costs less than existing product or services from the old technology.

Initially, the products perform worse than existing products when judged by the performance metrics that mainstream existing customers value.

Eventually the performance catches up and address the needs of mainstream customers.


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Disruptive Technologies - Christensen

Incumbents fail because they spend to much time listening to and meeting the needs of their existing mainstream customers who, initially, have no use for products from the disruptive technology

Measure of key performance attribute

Time

A

B

CD

Costumer demand trajectory

Company improvement trajectory


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Disruptive innovation in health

Primary care/ Nurse practitionrs

Specialist care

Self care – pharmacy, diagnosis and treatment

performance

time

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Costs in health



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Innovation


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Mechanisms of disruptive technology

Disruptive innovations introduce a new value proposition: Low-end disruption: attracts low-end customers initially,

moves into more upscale markets over time as the technology improves; Examples: discount retail stores, low budged airlines,

Dell’s supply chain Overshot customers; customers who stop paying for

further improvements. New-market disruption: occur when existing products limit

the number of potential consumers. Examples: Kodak camera, Bell telephone, Sony transistor

radio, Xerox photocopier, Apple personal computer, eBay online market place.

converts previous non-customers into new customers, thereby creating a new market;


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Time or engineering efforts

Perf

orm

ance

as

defined in a

pplic

ati

on A

Perf

orm

ance

as

defined in a

pplic

ati

on B

Technology 1

Technology 2

Application in market A

Application in market B

Disruptive technology:

• new market niche

• small market

• small companies


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Time or engineering efforts

Technology 1

Technology 2

Application in market A

Application in market B

Niche, small market

Perf

orm

ance

as

defined in a

pplic

ati

on A

Disruptive technology takes over the larger established market New entrants

dominates

Old company playing catch-up

Perf

orm

ance

as

defined in a

pplic

ati

on B


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Science-technology cycle


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Cumulative adoption patterns (Examples for some media products)

Cumulative Adoption Patterns(Examples for Some Media Products)

1. Based on the number of households with the electronic device (eg, television set, DVD player, etc.), survey results on the share of the population, that indicated using a medium in a given year (eg, read newspapers, went to a movie), or estimates based on circulation or unit data

Source: Communications Industry Forecast, 2005-09


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Cumulative adoption patterns (Examples for Several Durables)

Cumulative Adoption Patterns(Examples for Several Durables)


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Organizational (management) innovation

A company ability to affect fundamental changes in its own internal way of working.

Create or alter business structures, practices and capabilities:

Lean manufacturing, total quality management,

Activity based costing, economic value added,Matrix organization, ambidextrous structures,Outsourcing, supply chain management,

strategic alliances,Corporate venturing, scenario planning,


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Business model (strategy) innovation

Change in the way business is done in terms of capturing value, create new architecture of revenues. Innovations aimed at social needs and issues,Open innovation, Internet enabled businesses.


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Open innovation paradigm

• Multiple points of entry and exit

• Not all smart people work for us

• External R&D can create significant value

• Internal R&D is needed to claim some portion of that value

• External and internal ideas as well as external or internal paths to market.

Krsto Pandza - Technology Management 39

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY

Day 1


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Learning objectives

Understand appropriateness of tools for technology forecasting.

Applying: Scenario planning Technology roadmapping

Designing a technology roadmap.


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Amara’s law in technology forecasting

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

Over predict change

Under predict change


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Technology forecasting

The future cannot be predicted. There are many different possible alternative futures. Instead of predicting what the future will be, analysts engage in structured and thoughtful speculation about future possibilities. This helps people prepare for whatever future comes.

Successful forecasts demand for: familiarity with science relevant to technology being examined detailed knowledge of today’s related products and R&D

results market intelligence leap of imagination understanding that eliminate too radical or too conservative

estimations willingness to present and defend the resulting ideas.

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Technology forecasting


Gather as much data as the analysis warrants Analyze the data in multiple ways Use judgement and imagination within existing

frameworks

Long-term forecasts (synthesise a broader vision)

Mid-term forecasts (projects possible pathways of development)

Near-term forecast (market research, forecasting demand for a particular product)

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Nanomaterial forecasts


$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

$02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

SALES$ billions

Nanomaterials

Nanointermediates

Nano-enabled products

Source Lux research


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Technology foresight on energy-related applications in nanoscience

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PESTEL


Legal:• Competition law• Employment law• Health and safety• Product safety

Political:• Government stability• Taxation policy• Foreign trade regulations• Social welfare policies

Environmental:• Environmental protection laws• Waste disposal• Energy consumption

Economic:• Business cycles • GNP trends• Money supply • Inflation• Unemployment • Disposable income Social:

• Population demographic • Income distribution• Social mobility• Lifestyle changes • Attitudes to work and leisure• Consumerism • Safety • Levels of education

Technology:• Government spending on research• Industry focus on technological effort • New discoveries /developments • Speed of technology transfer• Rates of obsolescence

PESTEL framework

Trends Impact Uncertainty

Political

Economic

Social

Technological

Environmental

Legal

Positive, negative, neutral

Opportunities, Threats

High, medium, low

• What environmental factors are affecting the organisation?

• Which of these are the most important at the present?

• Which of these will be important in the future?

• How uncertain are these trends?

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Industry Background for pharma Post-War ‘Golden Era’ Major companies grew from National and Regional

UK- Boots, Fisons, Beechams, Glaxo, Wellcome, ICI (Zeneca) France - Roussel, Rhone-Poulenc, Sanofi Germany and Switzerland - Ciba, Sandoz, Hoescht, Roche,

E Merck USA - Merck, SKF, Squibb, BM, Pfizer, AHP

Relatively small number of truly global companies until 1980s Global companies created ‘organically’ on back of block

buster products Then in 1990s, start of Merger and Acquisition activity

Seek to increase market share, make Cost Savings More recently R&D synergies

Innovations in 20th Century

Life saving: anti-infectives (penicillins, anti-virals) and oncology products

Life sustaining: hypertension, HIV, diabetes Medicines reducing need for surgery: anti-

ulcerants, lipid lowering Quality of life: anti-depressants, asthma Vaccines: MMR, polio, influenza, cancers

Human Genome Project Nanotechnology Information Science

http://www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/home.shtml

http://www.fillmyscript.net/images/lipitor-box.gif

http://www.gsk.com/financial/reports/ar/review/prod_portfo/images/zantac.jpg

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/images2003/combivir1.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/hiv_and_aids/combivir_1.html&h=84&w=238&sz=5&tbnid=7ARjhYF3_fUJ:&tbnh=36&tbnw=104&hl=en&start=47&prev=/images?q=combivir&start=40&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&sa=N

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/antenna/mmr/cip2/images/MMR-vaccine.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/antenna/mmr/cip2/123.asp&h=300&w=201&sz=19&tbnid=PbNnlz_UXJwJ:&tbnh=111&tbnw=74&hl=en&start=7&prev=/images?q=mmr+vaccine&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.gsk.com.ve/attach/156/default/seretide.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.gsk.com.ve/view/index.asp?ms=156&pageMs=1280&h=314&w=434&sz=131&tbnid=Q1HNJ7RgQo8J:&tbnh=88&tbnw=123&hl=en&start=1&prev=/images?q=seretide+&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.life-pharmacy.com/img/seretide500_big.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.life-pharmacy.com/asthma/product_seretide.html&h=242&w=263&sz=28&tbnid=oPpa0secEpYJ:&tbnh=98&tbnw=107&hl=en&start=18&prev=/images?q=seretide+&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&sa=G

Recent industry challenges …..

In past five years major changes have taken place in Pharma industry environment: R&D Productivity Generics Pricing and Cost Regulatory activity Customer

expectations Social and Political

Agendas Competition and

M&A

Revenue Pharma

Pfizer

GlaxoSmithKline

sanofi-aventis

Novartis

Roche

AstraZeneca

Johnson & Johnson

Merck & Co

Wyeth

Eli Lilly

Other Companies

http://www.quadro.com/images/tablet.jpg


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Emerging industry challenges …..

In the next decade further challenges will emerge… Science and Technology Governance and Regulation Increasing need to demonstrate ‘value’ Challenge to value of IP Changing customers and expectations Increasing demand for ‘customisation’ Competition - Collaboration


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Key Technology Trends

Biotechnology - Genetics / Genomics Materials and Nanotechnology Information Technology Ethical, Legal, Societal Issues

How and where might these impact pharmaceuticals?


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Genomics – the realisation?

Genomics: Realisation

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

% R

ea

lisa

tio

n

Human GenomeDiagnosticsGenomic Drugs

Source: Roche: Capturing Value from Genetics and Genomics, K Lindpaintner - June 2001

Diagnostics

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Drug Delivery

“Nano Injector with Red Cells”, ©Copyright 2002 Coneyl Jay.

PESTEL example

Legal:• Legal implications of genomics

Political:• Reduced value of IP in medicine (public ownership)• Role of non-for-profit programmes• Social welfare policies

Environmental:• Patient safety • Impact of genetically modified organism • Green chemistry and biotech

Economic:• Increase in costs for governments• Funding of health• Budged deficits • Emerging and developing economies Social:

• Aging population • Patient and physician expectations• Ethical implication • Lifestyle changes • e-pharmacies

Technology:• Genomics• Biotechnology• Supply chain technology• ICT• nanotechnology

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Analysis of PASTLE framework

Factor Importance Uncertainty Ageing Population Medium – increasing health

burden None – well documented

Increasing consumer and Health Awareness

Medium – in terms of customer expectations

Low – Internet led

Increased access to information

Medium Low – development in this technology well trended

Smart Tags and Adv SCM High Low

Adv materials Yes – new products Medium

Genomics and diagnostics High Medium

MEMS, nanotech High High

New competitors Medium Low

Industry consolidation Medium Low

Green chemistry and biotech Medium Medium

Funding and pricing High High

Access to medicines High High


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Pharmaceutical Industry Present to 2020

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020S

ocie

tal

Tech

nolo

gica

lE

nvir

onm

enta

lE

cono

mic

Pol

itic

al

Ageing Population

Increasing Consumer and Health/Safety Awareness

Increased Access to Information and Communications

Smart Tags and Advanced Supply Chain Management

Genomics and DiagnosticsAdvanced Materials, Dispensing and Dosing Technologies

Funding and Pricing Pressures / Customer Model

Access to Medicines

Reduced Value of Intellectual Property

Changing Regulatory Demands

Rise of New Competitors - S Asia generics, Biotech

Further Industry Consolidation

“Green - Sustainability”

New Technologies - MEMS, nanotech, AI



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Scenario planning

When the business environment has high levels of uncertainty arising from complexity and/or rapid change it may prove impossible to develop a single view of future developments.

Scenarios are detailed and plausible views of how the business environment of a firm might develop in the future based on groupings of key environmental influences and drivers of change about which there is a high level of uncertainty.

Use of speculation and human judgement in an attempt to gain fresh insights and “bound” future uncertainties

Directed toward stretching decision makers’ thinking about their organization’s business model and its future environment, overcoming corporate blind-spots, and enhancing strategic flexibility


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Schwartz, 1991

1. Identify focal issue or decision - focus and relevance

2. Key forces in the local environment - factors for success and failure

3. Driving forces - macro-environmental forces that influence factors

4. Rank by importance and uncertainty - importance to focal issue

5. Selecting the scenario logics - define axes for scenario directions

6. Fleshing out the scenarios - include key forces

7. Implications - consider focal issue for each scenario

8. Selection of leading indicators and signposts - track reality vs. scenarios

Scen

ario

dim

ensi

on 2

Scenario dimension 1

Scenario A&

implications

Scenario B&

implications

Scenario C&

implications

Scenario D&

implications

Developing Scenarios


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Key steps in scenario planning process

Isolate the decision – identify what is the fundamental issue to be addressed

Isolate the driving forces – determine which driving forces are critical in influencing the change in the environment

Rank the driving forces by importance and uncertainty – The most critical driving forces will be those that are both very important and highly uncertain


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High

HighLow

Potential impact

Uncertainty


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Select the scenario logic – determine the two or three most important underlying questions that will make a diference in the decision. Crossing two major questions in a matrix gives four possible scenarios

Flesh out the scenarios – using the driving forces and trends, see how they affect the scenarios

Play out the implications – return to the original question and examine it in the light of the scenarios that have been built


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Select the scenario logic – a case from FutMan project

Loose

Concerted

CollectivePublic values and consumer

attitudes

Focus Europe

Sustainable Times

Global Economy

Local Standards

Individual

Inte

gra

tion

of

SD

r

ele

van

t p

olicie

s


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Futures of the scenarios


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Scenario logic – a case pharmaceutical industry

Health funding limited

Health funding significant

Technology adoption high Technology

adoption

Good old days

My Health.com

Health.for. all

Health.net

Technology adoption limited

Fu

nd

ing

an

d p

ricin

g


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The resulting four scenarios

My.Healthcare.com – where there is adequate funding to permit technologically advanced and highly personalised medicine to become routine in major markets. Pharmaceutical companies extend their product service offering to deliver advanced and personalised treatments.

Health.Net – where funding is limited but where some personalisation of treatment is provided together with extensive use of generic products. Results in fundamental changes to product delivery model, with the emergence of new providers of treatments and service. Pharma companies become tier 1 suppliers of branded technology for others to integrate into a product.

Health.for.All – where funding and technology adoption is limited and there is increasing rejection of intellectual property protection for life saving medicines. The current business model is rejected. UN/WHO or similar drive the emergence of not-for-profit supply organisations for developing countries.

“Good old days” – where there is adequate funding but technology adoption is limited. However this scenario was not considered plausible because it is considered unlikely that high levels of funding and pricing flexibility will be available for essentially ‘older’ treatments technologies.


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Scenario 1; “my.Healthcare.com”

6:23 AM, 13 October 2019… You are feeling ill. You go over to your pC, plug your HealthCard in to the HealthPort and type in your PIN. PCHealth starts and via a simple dialog prompts for symptoms. It then runs a check on your health records and via Internet looks for similar symptoms locally. Its preliminary diagnosis is not clear, so PCHealth asks you to get a Diagnostic stick. You pull the stick from the pack, break off the end and spit on it. You then close the tube and connect it to HealthPort. Two minutes later PCHealth confirms as case of micoplasma pneumoniae infection (…must have been that last business trip), it updates your records, identifies the preferred medicine (taking account of your genotype and health records). It then sends information to your personal Physician (who will check up on you in a time difined according to illness) and to WorldPharma Co. You will take delivery of the medicine, a new treatment monitor and replacement diagnostic sticks within 4 hours. The new monitor will allow you to check the drug is performing.

Your platinum credit card is Automatically biled by WorldPharma Co.


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Technology roadmapping

Technology roadmapping represents a powerful technique for supporting technology management and planning, especially for exploring and communicating the dynamic linkages between technology, organizational capabilities, strategy and changing environment.

Technology roadmap consists of different application levels: Sector/industry Company/business (technology development to be linked with

business planning) Product Science

Technology roadmapping enables to align these analytical levels.


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The roadmap architecture and process

The roadmap architecture is composed of two key dimensions: Timeframes (typically the horizontal axis) which

may include the present, short-, medium-and long term perspectives.

Layers and sub-layers (typically the vertical axis), represented by a system-based hierarchical taxonomy which allows different levels of detail to be addressed.

Linkages (technology push, market pull). Process of developing a roadmap is more

important as the roadmap itself.

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Generic roadmap architecture


Business environment

Business strategy

Products

Capability/technology

Resources

Time scale

Present 5 year 10 year 15 year

Political, economical, social, technological, legal, environment

Vision, aspirations, objectives, performance

Products, product generations

Technology competency, R&D capability, operational capabilities, new product development, supply chain

Financial, human


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Health Care Trends – to 2020? Business environment analysed


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Supply Chain and Processing Capabilities to 2020

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Science driven map for cell on a chip


Societal embedding

Application area

Integrated platform

Experimental platform

Scientific research

Time scale

Present 5 year 10 year 15 year

Regulation, new roles and responsibilities, reliability

Point of care diagnostic products, markets

Portable and with disposable chips, monitoring and diagnosing

Multianalyte research tool, demonstration model, detection possibilities

conductivity detectionMicrochip fabrication

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Specific technical challenges in the biochip sector; science-driven roadmaps


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Technology roadmap; High-k metal product roadmap


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The Future….?

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0

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I n c r e a s e d A c c e s s t o I n f o r m a t i o n a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n s

S m a r t T a g s a n d A d v a n c e d S u p p l y C h a i n M a n a g e m e n t

G e n o m i c s a n d D i a g n o s t i c sA d v a n c e d M a t e r i a l s , D i s p e n s i n g a n d D o s i n g T e c h n o l o g i e s

F u n d i n g a n d P r i c i n g P r e s s u r e s

A c c e s s t o M e d i c i n e s

R e d u c e d V a l u e o f I n t e l l e c t u a l P r o p e r t y

I n c r e a s i n g R e g u l a t o r y D e m a n d s

R i s e o f N e w C o m p e t i t o r s - S A s i a g e n e r i c s , B i o t e c h

F u r t h e r I n d u s t r y C o n s o l i d a t i o n

G r e e n C h e m i s t r y a n d B i o t e c h

N e w T e c h n o l o g i e s - M E M S , n a n o t e c h , A I

Time

PerformanceSpecialist Care

Self-Care - PharmacyDiagnosis and Treatment

Most Demanding Customers

Least Demanding Customers

Performance

that customers

in main-stream

can absorbPrimary Care /Nurse Practitioners

Clayton Christensen

TechnologyAdoptionHigh

TechnologyAdoptionLimited

Healthcare FundingSignificant

Healthcare FundingLimited

MyHealth.com

Health.Net

Health.for.All

“Good Old Days”

Peter Schwartz

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M y . H e a l t h

E m e r g e n tN a n o t e c h n o l o g y ? ?

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N o v e l m e d i a /s o l v e n t s

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D e v e l o p m e n t o fn e w b i o c a t a l y s t s

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b i o t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s /b i o s e p a r a t i o n s t o r e d u c ew a s t e

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M E M St e c h n o l o l o g y i nm e d i c i n e

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I n c r e a s e dM o d e l l i n gC a p a b i l i t y



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A d v a n c e dM o d e l l i n gC a p a b i l i t y

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I n c r e a s e d N u m b e r o fB i o p h a r m a c e u t i c a l s

I n s t r u m e n t a t i o n a n d m o n i t o r i n g A d v a n c e d c o n t r o l

H i g h l yp r e d i c t a b l ep r o c e s s e s

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G l o b a lm a n u f a c t u r i n gn e t w o r k s

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e D i a g n o s i sS u p p o r t

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K n o w l e d g e

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T r e a t m e n t

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2 2 %< 5 %2 X2 б

1 8 %7 . 5 %5 X3 б

1 5 %1 0 %8 X4 б

1 0 %> 2 0 %1 5 X5 б

e P h a r m a c y

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F u n d a m e n t a l C h a n g e i nV a l u e C h a i n ? -

e l i m i n a t i o n o fw h o l e s a l e r s o r

p h a r m a c i e s ?

L o w C o s t M a s s P r o d u c t i o nf o r D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s

M a s s A c c e s st o T r e a t m e n t

Robert Phaal et al Krsto Pandza - Technology Management


77

The Delphi Technique

An important tool to use to identify potential technological trends that might impact the development of new products and services It is a repetitive process. The same experts are asked the

same questions at least two times. Feedback on the previous round is provided in order to enable experts to change their estimations.

It is a structured process. The information flow is co-ordinated by researchers. There is no direct information flow among experts.

The experts give estimations, judgments or opinions. The anonymity of experts is maintained throughout the

process. The survey is designed to enable the statistical

presentation of final results.


78

The Delphi Technique Major Weaknesses

Sensitive to the precision of the questions asked

Sensitive to variance in the expertise of the respondents

Validity of the technique is limited by the intervention of unexpected events that the experts do not incorporate into their analyses


79

Project ManVis – Delphi study


80

Structure of the Delphi project


81

ManVis goals


82

Partners


83

Example of the survey


84

The Bass Model

A quantitative tool for forecasting the diffusion of new technology products that many companies use

Based on the size of the market, the rate of adoption by innovators and imitators, and the proportion of adopters in the previous time period

Can be modified to include a variety of factors that affect the diffusion of new technology products

Most accurate at predicting the diffusion of consumer durables


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Bass Model Limitations

Cannot use to estimate diffusion in the first year of a product’s life

Accuracy of predictions depends on the accuracy of assessments of size of the potential market

Assumes that the diffusion of a technology product depends only demand-side factors

Accuracy is much lower when competing technologies are being introduced

Further away in time from the initial adoption point the accuracy declines

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TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Strategic Perspectives on Technology Innovation 1 Krsto Pandza - Technology Management