This article was downloaded by: [New York University]On: 05 December 2014, At: 20:48Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House,37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK

Technology Analysis & Strategic ManagementPublication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ctas20

Technology at the beginning of the 21st century1

Hariolf Grupp aa Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (FhG-ISI) , Breslauer Strasse 48,Karlsmhe, D-76139, GermanyPublished online: 26 Jun 2007.

To cite this article: Hariolf Grupp (1994) Technology at the beginning of the 21st century1 , Technology Analysis & StrategicManagement, 6:4, 379-410, DOI: 10.1080/09537329408524182

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09537329408524182

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE

Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in thepublications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representationsor warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Anyopinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not theviews of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should beindependently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses,actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoevercaused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.

This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematicreproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in anyform to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

interrelationships between the projected scientific discoveries and technical achievements, and the requirements of the technology at the beginning of the next century.

Lead projects in technology which represent outline solutions to large, global, economic, social and ecological problems, and especially the visionary view of techno- logical development and the challenges now facing us, throw up other, more radical questions of technology policy than those set out here for the short-term view. It was not the aim of this study to give the questions concrete form. However, it has been possible to indicate that the trends described in technology policy, up to the start of the 21st century, can themselves provide the key to far-reaching changes in future policy, and the technology of the next decade can point the way to the lead projects of the 21st century. The technology policy of tomorrow must be in place to shape technology policy in the long run.

Notes and References

This study is a summarized version of the complete report given in H. Grupp, Technologie am Beguzn des 21. J d r h u n h (Berlin, Physica-Springer). This study was produced by a study group on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT). The BMFT was involved in drawing up the brief and the basic framework requirements. The BMFT had no influence on the results, for which the contractors alone are responsible. Within the BMFT, the project was handled by the department with responsibility for 'Basic issues of information technology', in conjunction with the department with responsibility for 'Basic issues of research and technology policy and planning'. The project team consisted of the following groups.

The FhG-IS1 (Fraunhofer-Institut fur Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research) in Karlsruhe (contact person, Dr H. Grupp), was the overall project leader and principal contractor, in conjunction with (in alphabetical order) the following:

a B E 0 (programme managing agency for biology, energy, ecology) in Jdich and Berlin; contact persons, Dr Hache and Dr Wehner;

a DECHEMA eV (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur chemisches Apparatewesen, chemische Technik und Biotechnologie: German Foundation for Chemical Apparatus, Chemical Technology and Biotechnology) in Frankfurt; contact person, Dr Wagemann;

a PFT (programme managing agency for manufacturing technology and quality control) in Karlsruhe; contact person, Dr Mikosch;

a PLR (programme managing agency for materials and raw materials research) in Jtdich; contact person, Dr Prasse;

a PT-IT (programme managing agency for information technology) in Cologne and Berlin; contact persons, Dr Bosch, Prof. Dr Werrmann and Dr Wolc VDI/VDE-IT (VDI Information Technology Centre) in Berlin; contact person, Dr Stransfeld; VDI-TZ (VDI Centre for Physical Technologies) in Diisseldorf; contact person, Dr Zweck.

Grupp, op n't., Ref. 1. In this paper, 'foreign' refers to all countries other than Germany. Aerospace Industries Association, Kg Technologies for the 1990s: An Overvierv (Washington, DC, Aerospace Industries Association, 1987). Ministry for International Trade and Industry, 'Trends and Future Tasks in Industrial Technol- ogy', White Paper on Industrial Technolou (Tokyo MITI, 1988). Department of Defense, 'Critical Technologies Plan', 1990, Report to the Committee on Armed S m h , US Cong7ess (Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office, 1990). Department of Defense, 'Critical Technologies Plan, 19911, Report to the Committee on Armed S&q US Congress (Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office, 1991) and National Research Council, Star 21-Strate@ Technologies for the Amy $ the Twenty-First Centuly (Washington, DC, National Academy Press, 1992).

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

New

Yor

k U

nive

rsity

] at

20:

48 0

5 D

ecem

ber

2014