TAM Panel Expansion Jan2007 FINAL

8/4/2019 TAM Panel Expansion Jan2007 FINAL

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Panel UpdateJanuary 10th, 2007


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Background & Objective

Background Two significant developments mark the commencement of the Year2007

Expansion of the TAM Panel &

The Conditional Access System implementation in the CAS-mandated

areas of Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkatta Both the above developments would raise questions and could give

rise to concerns

Objective

This document is an attempt to help you get a grasp of the two

developments


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Panel Expansion

Why & How?


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The Coverage Dilemma

Over the years, this has been one of the most critical and frequentlyexplored topics

Coverage is determined by..

The TV Universe spread and profile

The desired level of measurement (how finely users will want to slice the

data) The investments stake-holders are comfortable making

The JIB-appointed Research Design Sub-Committee (RDSC) had, way

back in 2002-3 explored the coverage dilemma & based on the above

stated parameters, concluded

TAM should expand to cover Urban, Class I towns If we dwell into the NRS 2006 TV Universe, some interesting facts

emerge..


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The Urban Class I towns as a cluster,

have a 83% TV Penetration & a 78%

Cable Penetration

51%

78%

83%

39%

61%

77%

78%

48%

All India

Urban

Urban Class I

Rural

TV Penetration C&S Penetration

NRS 2006 The TV Universe

Urban TV Home Distribution

Below Class I

25%

Class I

75%

Urban C&S Home Distribution

Below Class I

23%

Class I

77%

TV Penetration = (TV Homes/Total Homes) *100 ; C&S Penetration = (C&S Homes/TV Homes)*100

The Urban Class I towns,

account for 75% of Urban

TV Homes & 77% of Urban

C&S Homes

Both of the above facts in combination, make the Urban Class I towns

an extremely prudent, optimized coverage for the TAM service


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WHY expand the TAM Panel?

Any panel, whether it is for measuring TV habits or product consumption is

constructed to represent a universe (or a section thereof)

A panel therefore needs to be aligned periodically, to represent the universe

adequately

The periodicity (of the panel alignment) is determined by

The availability of a Universe Establishment study (in the TAM case the TV EstablishmentSurvey, which is conducted as a rider on the NRS) &

The quantum of change in the universe

In matured markets, panel alignments are few and far in-between as the

changes in the universe will not be of significant proportions the Indian TV

marketplace on the other hand, continues to rapidly evolve

As the panel alignment is largely dictated by the quantum of change observed

in the universe, let us explore this in greater detail


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Mn Hhs

Mn Hhs

+35% + 67% + 121%

+ 29 Mn + 27 Mn + 27 Mn

112 Mn

82 Mn41 Mn

68 Mn

49 Mn

22 Mn

Source : NRS

On an All India level


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Within Urban, Class I towns


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21% Growth in TV owning & 46% Growth in C&S Households

50%

Growth

46%

Growth

23%

Growth

21%

Growth

Source : NRS

*Penetration

TV Households

C&S Households


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The Growth is also significantly different across SEC

62%

Growth56%

Growth31%

Growth41%

Growth

46%

Growth

In 2006, NRS

Source : NRS


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C&S , Color TV and Remote

penetration across markets has also

shown significant changes


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79% CS penetration at All India Level, And Atleast 8 TAM markets cross90% CS penetration


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25 of 26 Markets above the 75% Color TV penetration mark

Source : NRS 2002 and 2006


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85% Remote penetration at All India Level within C&Shomes


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The TV landscape has seen rapid changes

Color TV penetration has gone up to 88% (from 65% in 2002) in 2006

The Remote ownership has gone up to 85% (from 65% in 2002) within C&S

Avg Household size has come down from 5.20 in 2002 to 5.02 in 2006

Market Wise Analysis show significant differences

16 of 26 TAM markets have greater than 75% of CS penetration (8 markets have more

than 90% CS penetration)

22 of 26 markets exhibit more than 10% growth in Color TV penetration (Max being 26%

& 14 markets with greater than 90% color TV penetration)

Average household size differs across markets 6.1 for UP 0.1-1 Mn while 4.2 for TN 1

Mn+ The market strata adds towns across states, with the nature of the town cluster

changing its form & constituency


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And What has happened on the

Consumer Behavior front

325+ TV stations & Fragmentation is on a Rise


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No of Channels contributing to 80% of viewership has steadily beenrising across years


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And the dependence on Top 5 channels has been comingdown


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The Viewership differences are highlighted across the different SECs


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And as a result, specific Program TVR continue to slide down.

Special content, the way to go!

Source: TAM Peoplemeter System TG : CS 4+ Market: Hindi Speaking


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The Expansion Design!!!

And what makes it a mammoth of an exercise!


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A quick measure of the mammoth task

DESIGN

Town Selection Moving from 70 to 148 towns, a 100% inc! Meters Moving from 4800 to 7000 meters, a 50% inc!

IMPLEMENTATION

Technology

Moving from Analog to Digital Data Processing Moving from 22,000 to 35,000 respondents

Time Plan By Jan 1st 2007!

USER IMPLICATIONS Smooth Migration & Expansion


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Why the additional towns?

The need for additional towns has been driven by three

predominant factors 1. A significant number of towns have migrated across population strata

(e.g. The number of towns in Urban Class I increased from 300, as per

NRS 2002 to 388, as per NRS 2005)

Our mandate is to sample all class I towns, hence these towns need to

be individually sampled

2. To ensure adequate representative sample towns for smaller strata, a

statistical analysis indicated a need for further addition of towns (with

sampling controls at the 5-10L, 2-5L & 1-2L town stratums respectively)

3. Given the large & new TV consuming segment highlighted by the TV

Establishment Survey, broadcasters & advertisers will require to studythis set in much greater detail => only possible if a greater sample with

enhanced statistical representation is made available


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Overall Sampling

Overall Sample Size increase by 50%

Metro Sample jump up by 15%

Hindi Speaking Markets up 72%

East increases 59%

South increases 31%

New Sample Design splits 1-5L stratum as 1-2L and 2-5L for bettercontrol

New States like Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal sampled & reported withinearlier (MP & UP) definitions as MP+ & UP+ respectively

Coverage remaining the same, WB & Rajasthan add 2 stratums (1Mn+,in addition to 0.1-1Mn)


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Town Selection

How has this changed?


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How have Population Strata changed?

Figs indicates No of towns in indicated Population Stratum


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What are the implications on Town selection?

Cover larger no of towns to represent existing

Markets and

No. of towns representing per State go up Avg. 12 towns

Total towns 148 towns (142 towns + 6 Mega Metros)

Include new population strata in some states which

have emerged


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The towns are also selected to account for the SCRs

States SCR's States SCR's

Andhra (E) Dandakaranya (Orissa)

Andhra (W) Gondwana - Orissa

Rayalseema Orissa Hills & Plateau (W)

Telengana (N) Orissa Hills & Plateau (E)

Telengana (S) Coastal Orissa (Kalinga)

Chhattisgarh & Gondwana (S) North Punjab Plains

Baselkhand (Chhatisgarh) South Punjab Plains

Dandakaranya (Chhattisgarh) Bisht Doab (Beas - Satluj) & E. P.

Delhi Delhi Himachal Pradesh

Saurashtra (Kathiawar) Eastern Haryana

Kachchh Western Haryana

Bhilistan - Gujarat Maru Pradesh (Marwar) (S)

Gujarat Plains Maru Pradesh (Marwar) (N)

Old Mysore Jaipur (Aravallis)

Kanara (S) Mewat

Kanara (N) Mewar (S)

Karnataka (Deccan) Mewar (N)Malnad Pondicherry

Malabar (North Kerala) Madras

Kochi (Central Kerala) Coimbatore

Central Travancore Tanjore

Travancore (South Kerala) Madurai

Bhundelkhand - MP Rohelkhand (W)

Baselkhand (MP) Rohelkhand (E)

North Malwa (E) Braj (W)

North Malwa (W) Braj (E)

Bhilistan - MP Oudh (N)

South Malwa (W) Oudh (W)

South Malwa (E) Oudh (E)

Chhattisgarh & Gondwana (N) MP Oudh (S)Goa (Maharashtra) Bhundelkhand - UP

Konkan Bhojpur - UP

Desh (Western Ghat) (N) Uttaranchal Uttarkhand

Desh (Western Ghat) (S) Darjiling

Khandesh Duars

Marathwada Ganga Delta

Vidharba (E) Rahr

Vidharba (W)

Uttar Pradesh

West Bengal

Madhya Pradesh

Orissa

Punjab/HP/Chandigarh

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu/Pondicherry

Karnataka

Kerala

Maharashtra/Goa

Andhra Pradesh

Chattisgarh

Gujarat

Haryana


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Home Selection

How has this changed?


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How are the homes selected?

Homes are selected through a statistical method that

ensures the homes adequately represent themarket/stratum

Involves the following steps

Statistical analysis is undertaken to identify factors that influence

TV viewing The factors are further categorized into two broad controls

Primary : Most influential factors. Maintained at each inter-locking level

basis ( 4 SEC x C&S/Terr x 4 Age Groups x 2 Genders)

Secondary : Lesser influencing factors. Maintained at city/stratum level

This statistical approach results in stratifying the sample,ensuring robust city/stratum television viewing estimation


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The Primary & Secondary controls

New Secondary parameter introduced as control variable while expanding panel

Presence of kids in the age-bands

4-9 years &

10-14 years


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Sample Distribution (Homes)

Market ExistingNew

Expansion

Mumbai 450 495

Calcutta 265 330

Delhi 425 470Chennai 255 280

Bangalore 255 280

Hyderabad 255 280

6Metros 1905 2135

Market ExistingNew

ExpansionRoAP 305 388

Gujarat 270 487

PHCHP 260 443

RoKar 115 221

Kerala 220 287

RoMah 295 541

RoTN 230 375UP+ 330 596

RoWB 110 244

Orissa 110 143

MP+ 215 393

Rajasthan 100 334

RoStates 2560 4452

Total Homes 4555 6587

Total Meters 4800 6917


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Why the technology upgrade (analog->digital)?

With the government granting DTH rights and with the long pending

implementation of CAS, it was critical to be future-ready The deployment of TVM5 Digital meters, does not in any manner

hamper/alter viewing of an analog source, hence only has an obvious

plus

The metro markets have been increasingly witnessing a surge of

Plasma/LCD televisions, making the homes owning these type of sets moresensitive to insertion of frequency monitoring probes from the rear of the

TV &

VCD/DVD release of movies sooner than in the past, thus the measurement

of viewing these devices gaining importance

TVM5 is a non-intrusive meter (probes on & not in the TV, monitorfrequency watched) &

Can also attribute viewing to sources like DVD/VCD players & game

consoles

Individuals Household


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The New Universe Sizes Market C&S NonC&STotal C&S Non

C&S

Total

Mumbai 14238 1098 15336 3298 249 3547

Calcutta 9357 1950 11307 2125 438 2563

Delhi 12471 2168 14639 2659 422 3 081

Chennai 6417 49 6465 1577 10 1587

Bangalore 5644 264 5908 1423 66 1490

Hyderabad 5715 274 5989 1203 53 1256

AP 1Mn.+ 2203 49 2251 356 9 366

AP .1-1Mn. 5913 535 6447 1393 122 1515

Guj 1Mn.+ 6606 2922 9528 1476 649 2125

Guj .1-1Mn. 2561 1321 3882 553 277 830

Karn .1-1Mn. 4829 908 5737 1071 193 1265

Ker 1Mn.+ 918 244 1162 225 67 292

Ker .1-1Mn. 2901 637 3538 688 143 831

MP 1Mn.+ 2482 1323 3805 522 278 800

MP .1-1Mn. 3814 2794 6608 776 552 1328

Mah 1Mn.+ 4304 2838 7142 1009 651 1659

Mah .1-1Mn. 4439 3295 7733 969 688 1656

Ori .1-1Mn. 1555 1080 2636 356 231 586

Pun 1Mn.+ 3269 432 3701 690 87 777

Pun 1-10 5126 1715 6841 1128 374 1501

Raj 1Mn.+ 1188 1221 2409 229 229 458

Raj .1-1Mn. 2267 2185 4452 449 402 851

TN 1Mn.+ 2313 82 2395 611 23 634

TN .1-1Mn. 5490 218 5708 1392 57 1449

UP 1Mn.+ 6035 2989 9024 1092 518 1610

UP .1-1Mn. 6093 4526 10619 1122 782 1905

WB 1Mn.+ 708 483 1191 147 94 241

WB .1-1Mn. 2758 631 3389 646 143 789

All India 131614 38229 169843 29186 7805 36991

Base* - NRS 2006 projected to 1Jan 2007

Individuals Household

The TAM Universe is a projected

2007 universe basis

The NRS 2006 TV universe plus

Growth rate applied for 2007(computed from the CAGR witnessed by each

stratum from census 2001 over 1991)


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Post-CAS/Digital Regime


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What proportion of C&S homes come under CAS?

Only 20% of city C&S homes come under CAS Zone 1

Metros

Total HHlds TV Owning HHlds Cable HHlds Total HHlds TV Owning HHlds Cable HHlds

Mumbai 4102 3500 3254 636 572 544

Delhi 3339 3023 2608 761 723 651

Kolkata 3180 2528 2097 649 519 441

Chennai 1693 1569 1557 1109 1053 1043

Note:

All City figures as per NRS 2006

Zone 1 numbers estimates arrived at through TAM field work & Electoral/Municipal information on wards (Census 2001)

(Preliminary estimates & subject to change)

All City (Figures in 000's) Zone 1 (CAS Implementable Zone)

CAS Zone 1 TV & Cable TV Owning Estimates

Mumbai ~16%

Delhi ~ 23%

Calcutta ~ 21%


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TAM is CAS/Digital compliant

TAM is conducting a periodic TV Establishment Study

Will help in factually ascertaining off-take of new delivery platforms

Will help in generation of profiles

Will indicate what weight this distribution platform should carry

TAM has a technology-hybrid (analog + digital), device

neutral & self-reliant metering solution TAM, anticipating the next era of broadcast has already deployed

state-of-the-art TVM5 meters in all 6 metros

TVM5 can measure analog as well as digitally-transmitted channels

This metering solution will work independent ofbroadcast/distribution companies critical for 100% coverage of

viewing & security


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How do the TVM5 Digital meters work?

Picks data packets encoded within digital signals

Non intrusive on TV set Compatible with

DTH

CAS

IPTV

Gaming device

Any kind of TV Plasma TV

LCD TV

HDTV Normal TV set

(Col & B/W)

Set Top Box

TVM 5 Meter

Satellite

AV N 1

AV N 2

Audio Left

AV Out

TV1 TV2 REC 1 REC 2 AV1 AV2


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The TV Establishment Surveys

TAM will continue to ride on the NRS for the Universe

profiles, at a pan-India level TAM conducted a DTH penetration study in Feb/Mar 2006

which Established our ability to conduct a pan-India survey to estimate

DTH penetration robustly

Revealed the profile of DTH subscribers, indicating a need toexplore setting up of an independent DTH panel

TAM has initiated a STB (CAS & DTH) penetration survey(last week), in the CAS-mandated areas of the 3 metros Results will be available to TAM by Jan-end

Will be shared with the industry immediately

Planned to be under-taken every month in the first quarter, middlemonth of each quarter there-after


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How is TAM ensuring representation of CAS/DTH homes?

Rate of adoption of CAS in the universe will be matchedby

the Rate of adoption of CAS within the panel a self

balance

CAS penetration study by TAM ready in January end

a) CAS Penetration levels STB already installed

b) Profile of CAS adopters eg. SEC

c) Intention to get an STB installed

d) Channels received

Panel will further get aligned using this study to capture

data among CAS/DTH Present panel has already homes with CAS/DTH connections


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Accounting for CAS in the TAM panel

Will be driven by the penetration of this platform in a

reporting stratum

IF, less than or equal to 5%

No purposive sampling or reporting. Panel will easily comprise this

proportion, reporting will not be split for CAS (under C&S Homes)

IF, between 6 15% Panel will be aligned to have a proportionate number of homes

Reporting will not be split for individual analysis

IF, greater than or equal to 16%

Panel will be boosted for the proportions to be available for separate

analysis These were the norms that were set by the JIB RDSC, that

TAM followed religiously with the advent of C&S (Deja-vu!)


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What about DTH?

DTH penetration will also be estimated by the CAS-

penetration survey (currently, in-field) Limited to the CAS-mandated areas in the 3-metros

TAM is initiating a pan-India DTH penetration study Fieldwork Period : Feb/Mar 2007

Reporting : End-Apr 2007

Set the ball-in-motion for an independent panel (if the profilesappear similar to those from the prior establishment survey)

The establishment survey will be undertaken at a pan-Indialevel, every mid-month of a quarter

Reporting norm for DTH will be identical to the oneproposed earlier (at respective penetration thresholds),within the existing market strata


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What happens to Measurement in Multi TV homes?

In all homes with Multi TV sets

Both/all TV sets are metered

Meters are attached to TV sets with all combinations One TV set with C&S connection, the other with Terrestrial TV

Both TV sets with C&S connection

One TV set with CAS, the other with FTA cable connection

One TV set with CAS connection, the other TV set withTerrestrial TV


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