GLIDE Number System

Assessing Community Resilience:What Matters and Where do you Start?Building Resilience Workshop VMarch 12-14, 2014New Orleans, LASusan L. CutterHazards & Vulnerability Research InstituteDepartment of Geography1US Context Increasing exposure (more infrastructure and people in harms way)Aging infrastructureMigrating and aging populationsDeclining federal budgetsIneffective governance at federal level Increasing severity of climate-related events

Outcome: Escalating losseshttp://blog.al.com/stantis/2007/08/our_infrastructure.html2Global Context

Extreme events becoming normal or routineInterdependence and interconnectedness of society (local events cascade to global)Highly improbable events take on more policy interest (wicked problems)Widening gap in income inequalityIncreasing urbanizationHyogo Framework for Action (HFA), Millennium Development Goals (MDG) ending 10-year cycle

http://www.megacities-megachallenge.org/Megacities-Megachallenge-Dateien/MC-2015-PGM.jpg3How can HFA2 goals disaster risk reduction be reflected in post-2015 sustainable development goals?

Recent Consensus Reports

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/publications/v.php?id=33059http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/reducing-risk-management/12-1289-reducing-risks-of-future-disasters-reporthttp://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13457www.unisdr.org/campaign5

Resilience: Ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events6IngredientsLeadership and political willGovernmental engagement in risk reductionCross sector linkages with civil society and private interestsWillingness to engage in peer to peer learningIntegration of resilience into overall planning and development efforts

http://www.nwlink.com/~donclark/leader/leadcon.htmlhttp://www.iedp.com/Blog/Five_Ingredients_for_Successful_Peer-Learning7How do we get there?Build a culture of resilienceProactive investments in risk reduction and resilienceImproved risk information, data and monitoringMake insurance premiums risk-based Have communities take responsibility for their decisions United States

Monmouth Beach, NJPhoto Credit: S. Cutter8Reorient Spatial PlanningEstablish baseline monitoring system to track pre-existing conditions in communities (residential and social structures; existing capabilities, etc.Consider what metrics are important to monitor before and after an eventEnhance local community resilience as part of master planning for community development, planning for long term disaster recovery, or adaptation planning for climate change

Move beyond immediate period of response and restoration of services and critical infrastructureHours Days Weeks Months YearsPre-event planning for long term resilience

Plan for Post-Disaster Recovery and Resilience9Recipe for building resilienceManage risks with flexible strategies and multiple toolsImprove accuracy and consistency of existing disaster dataHarmonize existing efforts to measure resilienceBuild strong local capacity Develop strong and complementary governance with policies taking longer-term views

Where to Begin Locally?Know your hazards and exposurewho and what is at risk and whereUnderstand your social and biophysical vulnerabilitiesKnow your pattern of historic lossesAnticipate future losses (climate change and other uncertainties)

Social vulnerability and climate sensitive hazards: drought, sea level rise, flooding, hurricane windsWh11Online hazard assessment tool: IHAT

12Where to Begin Nationally? The nation needs a consistent basis for measuring resilience that includes all of these dimensions.Photo: Elevating home near Sea Isle City, New JerseySource: Susan Cutter

Need to measure

the ability of critical infrastructure to continue to perform; social factors (e.g., health, socioeconomic status) that enhance or limit a communitys ability to recover; indicators of the ability of buildings or structures to withstand different disasters (e.g., building codes, adopted and enforced); factors that capture the special needs of individuals and groups.A resilience scorecard?A resilience scorecard?13Understanding resilience as a system of systemsIndividual (person, household, structures)

Group (social groups, sectors, infrastructure)

Spatial (community, ecosystems)14Spatial(places, communities, ecosystems)

15Three Perspectives Resilience as an outcome Resilience as a process, capacity building Resilience as both a process and an outcome

Saint Martin, MSFeb. 2006; Mar. 200716

Measurement is not easyWhat do you measure?How do you measure?What data do you use?How do you know if you got it right?

17Community CapitalsType of ResilienceExplanation of concept at community levelSample Supporting Research *SocialSocial characteristics enhancing access to resources, capacity to prepare, respond, recover, mitigateMorrow, Tierney, NorrisEconomicEconomic vitality, role in loss reductionRose, ChangInstitutionalOrganizational structures, planning, how organizations respond to changing conditionsBurby, Tierney, GodschalkInfrastructurePhysical systems, interdependence, redundancies, cascading impactsPerrow, ChangCommunity Sense of community functioning, community ties, participation in governance, place attachmentVale and CampanellaEnvironmentalBiodiversity, ecosystem health, management plans, wetlands preservation, etc. Gunderson, Laska18Sample Resilience IndicesNameAuthorGeographic RegionAttributesResilUSRenchler et al.SW LouisianaMulti-attribute including physical, quantitative, spatialCommunity Disaster Resilience Indicators (CDRI)Peacock et al.Gulf CoastMulti-attribute (social, economic, physical, human) within disaster cycle, quantitative, spatialCoastal Resilience Index (CRI)Emmer et al.LA-MS-ALMulti-attribute, qualitative self reportCommunity Resilience IndexSherrieb, Norris, GaleaMSDual attribute (economic development, social capital), qualitative, spatialBaseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC)Cutter et al.Southeast USMulti-attribute (social, economic, institutional, infrastructure, community competence), quantitative, spatial19Components of Disaster ResilienceA) SocialB) EconomicC) InstitutionalD) InfrastructureF) Disaster ResilienceE) Community capital

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=+20Identifying the dimensional drivers CountySocialEconomic Institutional

InfrastructureCommunity CapitalScoreHinds0.730.670.450.820.623.29Madison0.800.720.500.350.592.97Rankin0.890.680.510.370.512.95Copiah0.530.550.470.310.502.36Simpson0.560.560.360.350.522.34CountySocialEconomic Institutional

InfrastructureCommunity CapitalScoreHancock0.720.570.560.700.403.00Stone0.790.560.470.520.392.72Harrison0.680.530.490.300.412.40Jackson MSAGulfport-Biloxi MSAIllustrates opportunities for intervention21Resilience: Where are We? Theory and conceptualizationjust beginning; practice is ahead of the science- Data availability (type, scale, frequency) Measurement and comparability (social networks, capacity measures) - Model and index construction (qualitative, quantitative; single indicator vs. composite indicator; unit of analysis; validation) Sensitivity and uncertaintydo we have it right? Application to community and policy makers22

Sea Bright, New Jersey

May 2013Is this a resilient community?23

Lower Ninth Ward, New Orleans Jan. 2006 (L) Holy Cross Jan. 2011 (R)

Policy and decision-makers need to ask resilience for whom and to what?Diamondhead, MS Oct 2005 (L), Oct 2007( R)Lower Ninth Ward, New Orleans Diamondhead, MS October 2005 (L), October 2007( R)Jan. 2006 (L), March 2008 (R)24

Figure Source: IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, 2012. IPCC 25