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Studying History Narrows Down Alternative Future Scenarios This is the message given by Niall Ferguson in a 40 minute video presentation at http://bigthink.com/niallferguson . So, who is Nial l Ferguson? The referenced website gives his  background as, “Niall Ferguson is a Scottish-born historian, political commentator, and p ublic intellectual. He is als o the Lawrence Tisch Professor of History at Harvard. Ferguson graduated from Magdalen College and studied for two years as a Hanseatic Scholar in Hamburg and Berlin. Before joining the Harvard faculty, Ferguson taught at Oxford University and New York University.” I am writing this with two purposes. First, I find writ ing helps me organize my thoughts in a coherent fashion. Second, I think it is worthwhile for al l to see Niall’s video and ponder their response to his mess age. Our responses can range fr om doing nothing to becoming an advocate for a growing appreciation and advocacy for the principles Niall found to be responsible for the West’s emergence. I have watched his video several times and am very impressed with his grasp of what factors have led to the emergence of the West as a dominant force in the world. He points out that around the 15 th century the West was unimpressive when compared to the most successful empires of the time. These include t he big t hree; The Ottoman Empire, The Chinese Empi re and The Mogul Empire (India). He has identified 6 characteri stics that facilitat ed the West’s rise to world dominance. He calls the 6, “killer aps.” 1. Compet ition—polit ical and eco nomic. Due t o a l ack of a powe rful centra l aut horit y (e. g. emperor) and the relatively small subdivisions of countries and also subgroups within them, competition could flourish without the interference of central authority. 2. The Scie ntif ic Revolu tion—He point s out that Newton ha d no peer in t he non-wes tern world and even in the West. 3. Citi zenshi p based on proper ty owner ship—proper ty right s guarant eed by rule of law  based on laws written by property owners. This was the basis for the emergence of democracies in the late nineteenth and earl y twentieth centuries. He says John Locke had the best handle on this ph ilosophy. 4. Modern Medici ne—onc e the West ha d figur ed out what c aused Chol era, etc . they had a huge advantage that led to greatly improving life expectancies. 5. Consumer based ec onomi es—he poi nts out th e diff erence bet ween clo thing and s pices . That is, there is a limited market for spices but you can always want more clothing. 6. Work ethic—this was popularized as the Protestant Work Ethic but he points out that the Jews had an equivalent work ethic to the Calvinists so it wasn’t an exclusively Protestant  phenomenon. One further note. He points out that the hegemony gained through these killer aps and the western societies with their col onies that it lead to a downs ide of racism. This was t he basis for our tolerance of slavery for too long and for the eugenics movement at the turn of the 20 th century. So as in all stories it isn’t t otally positive. However, since we have dealt with correcting

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Studying History Narrows Down Alternative Future Scenarios

This is the message given by Niall Ferguson in a 40 minute video presentation at

http://bigthink.com/niallferguson. So, who is Niall Ferguson? The referenced website gives his

 background as, “Niall Ferguson is a Scottish-born historian, political commentator, and public

intellectual. He is also the Lawrence Tisch Professor of History at Harvard. Ferguson graduatedfrom Magdalen College and studied for two years as a Hanseatic Scholar in Hamburg and Berlin.

Before joining the Harvard faculty, Ferguson taught at Oxford University and New York 

University.”

I am writing this with two purposes. First, I find writing helps me organize my thoughts in a

coherent fashion. Second, I think it is worthwhile for all to see Niall’s video and ponder their 

response to his message. Our responses can range from doing nothing to becoming an advocate

for a growing appreciation and advocacy for the principles Niall found to be responsible for the

West’s emergence.

I have watched his video several times and am very impressed with his grasp of what factorshave led to the emergence of the West as a dominant force in the world. He points out that

around the 15th century the West was unimpressive when compared to the most successful

empires of the time. These include the big three; The Ottoman Empire, The Chinese Empire

and The Mogul Empire (India). He has identified 6 characteristics that facilitated the West’s rise

to world dominance. He calls the 6, “killer aps.”

1. Competition—political and economic. Due to a lack of a powerful central authority (e.g.

emperor) and the relatively small subdivisions of countries and also subgroups within

them, competition could flourish without the interference of central authority.

2. The Scientific Revolution—He points out that Newton had no peer in the non-westernworld and even in the West.

3. Citizenship based on property ownership—property rights guaranteed by rule of law

 based on laws written by property owners. This was the basis for the emergence of 

democracies in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. He says John Locke had

the best handle on this philosophy.

4. Modern Medicine—once the West had figured out what caused Cholera, etc. they had a

huge advantage that led to greatly improving life expectancies.

5. Consumer based economies—he points out the difference between clothing and spices.

That is, there is a limited market for spices but you can always want more clothing.

6.Work ethic—this was popularized as the Protestant Work Ethic but he points out that theJews had an equivalent work ethic to the Calvinists so it wasn’t an exclusively Protestant

 phenomenon.

One further note. He points out that the hegemony gained through these killer aps and the

western societies with their colonies that it lead to a downside of racism. This was the basis for 

our tolerance of slavery for too long and for the eugenics movement at the turn of the 20th

century. So as in all stories it isn’t totally positive. However, since we have dealt with correcting

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these problems over centuries now we have a head start on our emerging competitors who

haven’t had that experience.

He points out that we have tried alternatives in the West to that characterized by the list of six

attributes. He mentions both communism and national socialism which he calls miserable

failures. This proves for him that you need the full range of freedom embodied in his six killer aps to create a vibrant and innovative society.

 Niall argues that the study of history is the only way to be able to predict the futures. By futures

he means that each person and nation has a set of possible futures. Our choices individually will

result in the collective future that we live. He states that if you try to predict the future based on

your own experience and some model trying to incorporate a scientific approach you will likely

make poor predictions. His reason for saying this is that history is a once event, that is, you can’t

study history with scientific methods because you have a sample size of one. He also states that

the study involves looking at all levels of a society. He uses the experience of people like

George Bernard Shaw who visited Russia in the 1930s and was taken to see a huge industrial city

rising where nothing had existed previously. He saw huge blocks of apartments which had been

 built in Moscow. In the context of the great depression in the west he came back with an “I have

seen the future and it works” attitude. He, as did many other intellectuals of the time, missed the

underlying gulags, repression, purges that killed untold numbers of people. In other words he

got it wrong by only looking at the surface. Even a genius like Shaw can fall into the “There is

no conclusion so high it can’t be jumped to” trap.

With that as background Ferguson explores the current world situation and concludes that the

competition has “downloaded the killer aps” and that our future could be very different than the

last 500 years. He points out that China appears to be our biggest potential competitor to gain

world hegemony. He does say though that one of the most powerful killer aps, number 3 basedon personal freedom and property rights is not something that the Chinese have or are likely to

embrace. He says they are running the experiment to see if that is a true requirement. Niall

 believes it is. He also points out that the American implementation of the constitutional system

to employ that powerful approach is the best the world has seen. But it is in danger of being

irreparably hamstrung by judges and wrongheaded political leaders in America who want to back 

away from our constitutional guarantees of personal freedom and responsibility toward a proven

 by experience to be weaker European model.

He envisions two scenarios of the China—America competition going forward. One is that

China will increasingly become more powerful and America will drown in our debt becauseChina will back away from the “willing lender” role it has played for the last decades while

 building its own consumer society. He relates that he talked to a Chinese finance minister in

May 2010 and was told that the Chinese would not increase its holdings of US debt securities

and was looking for ways to reduce their holdings in them slowly to avoid a big drop in their 

value. He termed this a huge line of credit lost to the US. He contrasts this to the line of 

thinking of US government officials who argue that the Chinese need our consumption and this

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symbiotic relationship will last basically forever. He makes clear that he believes we are

delusional to believe that.

The second scenario is a happier one. In it America gets control of its deficits, trims unfunded

liabilities by changing the formula for key entitlements, and reinforces the constitutional

freedoms so important to innovation and growth. Also if you notice in killer ap number one theabsence of an all powerful central government was a plus in terms of growth and innovation.

That is, limited national government is one of the keys to the survival of our standard of living.

In this scenario growth would resume at higher levels, government debt would be capped and

decline over time and we would retain our leadership role in the world.

While I agree that he is very likely accurate in his two scenarios, I am afraid that the first one has

a much higher probability of happening because our politicians and the public who elect them

have shown little appetite for any short term pain even if the long term gain is enormous. This

generation has had no experience reinforcing the fact that the short term pain approach always

has less pain in total over time.

Don’t rely on my take. Watch the video and watch it again. Is saving the future for our progeny

worth it, I think so.