Strategijski izbor: metode i evaluacija

L 7, 8 i 9

EFBL, December, 2010

Ciljevi predavanja

• Identifikacija nivoa i metoda strategijskih pravaca/izbora..., organski rast, spajanje i akvizicija, i strategiski savezi...

• Tri kriterija uspjesnosti za ocjenu strarategijkih opcija: pogodnost, prihvatljivost i izvodljivost

• Korišenje niza tehnika za procjenu strategiske opcije

Importance of corporate cultural

• Managers have a set of core beliefs and assumptions which are specific and relevant to the organisations in which they work

• This has been called ideational (the process of creating new ideas) culture, a mind set, an interpretive schema, a recipe or paradigm

• This paradigm as a filter to the ways decisions are made

‘ Organizational culture includes ideational and material elements.

• Ideational culture refers to ideas, symbols, values, norms, principles, beliefs, ways of feeling, thinking and acting, as well as a stock of knowledge and a world view constructed by a group which, over time become convention.

• Material culture comprises the material products of a culture, as well as the tools used to construct the artefacts in question: – physical buildings of the bureaucracy, plus the tools

available for public servants to do their job, such as offices, desks, files, paper, pens, information systems, telephones, faxes, computers and the like’

The Cultural Dimension

• A “way of doing things” in the organisation guides strategic direction

• Strategies evolve in terms of a core set of shared assumptions based on past experience, values and beliefs held by the organisation’s members

• The shared assumptions guide– the selection of goals and objectives

– the identification of strategic issues

– the selection of information

– the selection of strategies

The Roots of Culture

• Geography

• Organisation’s core activity

• Organisation’s History

• Organisation’s structure

Three Layers of Culture (1)

• Values– often written down– statements about purpose, mission, objectives– usually general/vague (e.g. equal employment

opportunities)

• Beliefs– more specific– usually overt/talked about– e.g. the company should not trade with some

countries

Three layers of culture (2)

• Taken-for-granted assumptions– this is the real “core” of culture– difficult to identify and explain– often linked to the raison d'être of the

organisation (e.g. police forces are needed to catch criminals)

– Insights into the paradigm can be gained by analysing

– the elements of the Cultural Web

Controlsystems

Stories Symbols

Ritualsand routines

TheParadigm

Powerstructures

Organisationalstructures

The Cultural Web

Rituals &routines

StoriesSymbols

Control system

Organisationstructure

Power structure

Management Reality

Employee Reality

Forms of Reality

Exhibit 10.4 Strateške opcije

Okviri Strateškog izbora (SI)

• Nivoi SI

• Upravljanje portfolijem i netvorkom

• Poslovni nivo SI

• Diferencijacija Liderstva

• Kulturni uticaj

Razlika između korporativne i biznis stratgeije

Nivo profita iznad nivoa

konkurentnosti

Kako se stvara profit

atraktivnost industrije

Naš izbor

(Kompanije)

Kunkurentska prednost

Kako postici održati

konkurentnost ?

Korporativna stratgeija

Biznis stratgeija

Korporativni nivo

• Efikasne odluke oko djelatnosti firme

• Proizvodni obim – kako/u kojoj mjeri firma treba da bude specijalizovana?

• Geografski obim – Koje je najbolje geografsko širenje firme i njenih aktivnosti?

• Vertikalni obim – koje su to vertikalne aktivnosti koje firma treba da obuhvati?

Funkcije korportaivnog nivoa menadžmenta

odluke oko diverzifikacije, investicija i alokacija resursa na pojedine dijelove korp.

Asistiranje u formulaciji biznis stratgeije

Monitoring i kontrola poslovanja

podjela i transfer resursa i sposobnosti

Upravljanjeveza

izmeđukompanije

Smjernice ikontrolapojedinih

preduzeća

Upravljanje korporativnim

portfolijem

HIGH

Model za planiranje portfolija: The BCG Growth-Share Matrix

LOW

LOW

An

nu

al r

eal r

ate

of

mar

ket

gro

wth

(%

)

Relative market share

Earnings: high stable

Cash flow: high stable

Strategy: milk

Earnings: low, unstable

Cash flow: neutral or negative

Strategy: divest

Earnings: high stable, growing

Cash flow: neutral

Strategy: invest for growth

Earnings: low, unstable, growing

Cash flow: negative

Strategy: analyse to determine whether business can be grown into a

star, or will degenerate into a dog

HIGH

??

Strategija biznis nivoa

• Konkuretnost firme u okviru industrije ili tržišta

• Ako firma prosperira u okviru industrije ili tržišta mora uspostaviti konkurentsku prednost nad rivalima

Izvor konkurentske prednosti

Prednost troskova

Diverzifikacija

Kunkurentska Prednost

Slični proizvodi

Po nižoj cijeni

Prima cijena

Za jedinstven proizvod

Strategijski izbori – konceptualni pristupi

Competitive AdvantageCompetitive Advantage The Discipline of Market The Discipline of Market

LeadersLeadersMichael Porter Michael Porter Treacy and WiersemaTreacy and Wiersema

• Overall Cost Leadership Operational Excellence

• Differentiation Product Leadership

• Focus Customer Intimacy

Liderstvo u trškovima

• Cijene proizvoda jednake ili iste kao kod konkurenata iz razloga nižih troškova

• Ulazak na novo tržište sa nižim cijenama od konkurenata

• Ova politika je vrlo korisna u okolnostima kada je tržište osjetljivo na cijene

• To može da spriječi ulaz novih firmi na tržište

EasyJet: ‘no-frills’ strategija strategija zasnovana na cijeni

• Osnovan 1995

• 2003- 74 aviona, 105 ruta, 38 aeordora, 20mil putnika PA

• Pozadian uspjeha, smanjenje troškova ‘kozmentke’– no frills

• Promet 1.4milij –profit 144mil

• Business model: sigurnost i servis, utkan u nagalšen i dinamičnu polsovnu kulturu u cilju kontinuiranog rasta

Ključni aspekti biznis modela I • Zgusnuti raspored od tačke A do tačke B

– Povezivanje glavnih aerodroma

– Velika frenkventost

– Atraktivni za poslovne ljude i odmor

• Izražen i uočljiv brend podržan sa inovativnom promocijom

• Dinamične cijene prevoza

– Jednostavna struktura: ranije bukirate manje platite

– Cilj biti naj-jeftiniji na ruti

– Ditirano potražnjom, ‘yield’ menadžment sistem, maksimalna iskorištenost kapaciteta, potpuna kontrola inventara

• 100% direktna prodaja – eJ ne plaća proviziju posrednicima

– Preko 90% prodaje on-line

Ključni aspekti biznis modela II

• Efikasnost iskorištenosti kapaciteta– Veliki, moderni, ekonomični i relativno

‘environmtaly friendly’ avioni– Novi Airnus A319 avioni kombinovani sa

‘penzionisanim’, starom generacijom Boeing 737

• ‘skelabilnost’ – ‘prostor’ za rast biznisa – Održiv visoki nivo rasta je skelabilnost

operatinosti kompanije – Ovo smanjuje marginalne troškove

inkremtalnog rasta

Differentiation

• A differentiation strategy is based upon persuading customers that a product/service is superior to that offered by competitors

• Products/services will command a premium price

• Above average profits can be earned• Also creates an additional barrier to entry to

new businesses wishing to enter the industry

Focus• A focus strategy is aimed at a segment of the

market for a product/service rather than at the whole market

• Requires a lower investment in resources compared with a strategy aimed at an entire market

• It allows specialisation and greater knowledge of the segment being served

• It makes entry to a new market less costly and more simple

Karakteristike liderstva u troškovima i strategije diverzifikacije

Izvorna strategija ključni elementi potrebe za resursima i organizacijom

COST Scale-efficient plants. Access to capital. Process

LEADERSHIP Design for manufacture. engineering skills. Frequent Control of overheads & reports. Tight cost control. R&D. Avoidance of Specialization of jobs and marginal customer functions. Incentives for accounts. quantitative targets.

DIFFERENTIATION Emphasis on branding Marketing. Product and brand advertising, engineering. Creativity. design, service, and Product R&D quality. Qualitative measurement

and incentives. Strong cross-functional

coordination.

Game theory: Dilema zatvorenika

Ne priznaje

Priznaje

Ne priznaje

5, 5 -4, 10

Priznaje 10, -4 1, 1

U biznis, priznati/ne priznati može biti strategija zajednickog interesa i strategija sebičnosti

This game has fascinated game theorists for a variety of reasons:.• Firstly, it is a simple representation of a variety of important situations.

For example, instead of confess/not confess we could label the strategies "contribute to the common good" or "behave selfishly.“– game could describe the alternative of two firms competing in the

same market, and instead of confess/not confess we could label the strategies "set a high price" and "set a low price." Naturally it is best for both firms if they both set high prices, but best for each individual firm to set a low price while the opposition sets a high price.

• Secondly, it is self-evident how an intelligent individual should behave. No matter what a suspect believes his partner is going to do, it is always best to confess. If the partner in the other cell is not confessing, it is possible to get 10 instead of 5. If the partner in the other cell is confessing, it is possible to get 1 instead of -4. Yet the pursuit of individually sensible behavior results in each player getting only 1 unit of utility, much less than the 5 units each that they would get if neither confessed. This conflict between the pursuit of individual goals and the common good is at the heart of many game theoretic problems.

•

• A thirdly, it changes in a very significant way if the game is repeated, or if the players will interact with each other again in the future. For example that after this game is over, and the suspects either are freed or are released from jail they will commit another crime and the game will be played again. In this case in the first period the suspects may reason that they should not confess because if they do not their partner will not confess in the second game...this conclusion is not valid, since in the second game both suspects will confess no matter what happened in the first game.– However, repetition opens up the possibility of being rewarded

or punished in the future for current behavior, and game theorists have provided a number of theories to explain the obvious intuition that if the game is repeated often enough, the

suspects ought to cooperate.

Hibridna strategija

• Bazira se na diferenciranju i nižoj cijeni

• Prednost u ovim situacijama – Veliki obim – Strategija ulaza– ...

• Primer IKEA– Prednosti u odnosu na konkurenciju?

Šta je strategijska methoda?

Strategijka methoda je način za sprovođenje strategije.

Organski rast/razvoj Spajanje i akvizicija

Strateški savezi

Šta je organski rast / razvoj?

Organski rast ili razvoj je način za ostvarivanje strategije organizacije

na osnovu njenih vlastitih kapaciteta / sposobnosti

Razlozi za korištenje organskog rasta /razvoja

• Specifičnost proizvoida (visoke tehničke karaktresitike)

• Znanje i sposobnost razvoja

• Blagovremeno investiranje u rast i razvoj

• Minimiziranje poremećajana tražištu

• Priroda tržišta

Šta je spajanje i akvizicija?

Spajanje je obostrano dogovoreno rješenje za formiranje joint veture između dvije

organizacije sa zajedničkim vlasništvom

Akvizicija je metod u kojoj jedna organizacija

preuzima vlasništvo nad drugom

Motivi za spajanje i akviziciju u kontekstu poslovnog makro-

okruženja

Brzina ulazka na tržište Nivo konkuretnosti

Mogućnosti konsolidacije Finacijsko tržište

Motivi za spajanje i akviziciju u kontekstu sposobnosti organizacije

Iskorištavanje postojećih staretegijskih

sposobnostiEfikasnost trošova

Sticanje novih sposobnosti

Očekivanja interesnih grupa od spajanja i akvizicije

Očekivanja institucionalnih

itneresnih grupa Menadžerske ambicije

Spekulativni motivi

Pitanjima koja se tiču uspjeh akvizicije i spajanja

• Dali akvizicija otvara nove mogućnosti za organizaciju?

• Može li se poboljšati predanost (ambicije) (operativnih) menadžera?

• Dali će očekivana sinergija biti realizirana?

• Da li postoje problemi kulturnih razlika i povezivanja dviju organizacija?

Šta je strateški savez?

Strateški savez način na koji dvije ili više organizacija udružuje resurse i aktivnosti

sa ciljem realizacije i sprovodjenja strategije.

Motivi koji potiču formiranje strateških saveza

Potreba za stavarenje kritične mase

Ko-specijalizacija

Sticanje znanja – iskustava

Tipovi strateških saveza

Joint ventures

Consortia

Networks

Franchising

Licensing

Subcontracting

Exhibit 10.3 Types of Strategic Alliance

The Ansoff matrix- mogućnost/strategija rasta companije

Kriteriji uspješnosti strateških opcija

Pogodnost

Strateško pozicioniranje

Prihvatljivost

Performanse-očekvani rezultatai

Izvodljivost

Stratške mogućnosti

Pogodnost

• Pogodnost ili priklandnost se odnosi na ona pitanja koja adresiraju uslove/ okolnosti u kojma org posluje – strateško pozicioniranje

• Uključuje detaljnu analizu poslovnog okruženja, strateške sposobnosti i racionalnost (obrazloženje)

• Za razumijevanje pogodnosti strateških opcija možemo koristiti koncepte strateškog pozicioniranja

Koncepti za razumijevanje stargeijske pogodnosti (pogledati originalnu tabelu u kljizi!!!)

• PESTEL razumijevanje: mogućnosti rasta/stagnacije-adresiranje okolnosti e.g konvergencija industrije (vertikalna intregracija)

• Scenariji – neizvjesnost i rizik – potreba za rezervnim planom

• 5-snaga – snage konkurentnosti – razvoj barijera za nove biznise

• Strategijske grupe – atraktivnost SG, mobilnost prepreka – ptreba za re-pozicioniranjem u bolju SG

• Centralne sposobnosti org.- baza konkurentskih prednosti – eliminacija slabosti, exploatacija snaga

• Lanac vrijednosti: potreba za vertikalnom integracijom ili outsoucing – kako će se postići vertikalna integracija

• Mapiranje intresnih grupa – mapiranje IG, moć inetresa- konsekvence za pojedine IG

• Mreza kulturnih elemenata – stavrna prihvatljivost uticaj na izvodljivost – upravljavanje kulturnim razlikama (clash)

Primjeri pogodnosti

• Strateške opcije – Pravci – konsolidacija, tržišna penetracija,

razvoj proizvoda, razvoj tržišta, diverzifikacija– Metode – organski (interni) razvoj, spajanje /

akvizicija, joint development (udruživanje sposobnosti)

• Potrebno je odgovoriti na pitanje: Zašto su ove opcije pogodne u pogledu okruženja, sposobnosti i očekivanja (analiza svih)

• TOWS matrica-identifikacija str. Opcija

 External Opportunities(O)1.2.3.4.

External Threats (T)1.2.3.4.

Internal Strengths(S)1.2.3.4.

SO"Maxi-Maxi"

Strategy

Strategies that use strengths to

maximize opportunities.

ST"Maxi-Mini" Strategy

Strategies that use strengths to minimize threats.

Internal Weaknesses (W)1.2.3.4.

WO"Mini-Maxi"

StrategyStrategies that

minimize weaknesses by

taking advantage of opportunities.

WT "Mini-Mini" Strategy

Strategies that minimize weaknesses and avoid threats.

Razumijevanje relativne pogodnosti strategijskih opcija

Methoda Sposobnost

Rangiranje (često se bazira na SWOT analizi), metoda monitoringa implementacije strategije

Ocjena opcija u odnosu na faktore uspješnosti koji se odnose na okruženje, resurse i očekivanja

Rezultati rangiranja za svaku opciju

Stablo odlučivanja Progresivna eliminacija opcija sa uključivanjem novih zahtjeva koje je potrebno ispuniti

Scenariji Opcije su uskladu sa dodatnim scenarijima (rezervni plan)

Prihvatljivost

• Ishod strategije i očekivani rezultati.

• Tri osnovna tipa: – Povrat investicija – Rizik– Reakcija IG- politička dimenzija strategije

Kriterij Konceptualno razumijevanje

Primjer Ograničenost

Povrat inv.

Profitabilnost

Cost-benefit

Realne mogućnosti

SVA(Analiza akcionarskih vrijednosti)

Povrat finc. investicija glavnih projekata

Ukupni cost-benefit uključujući neopipljive vrijednosti Sekvence odlučivanja

Uticaj nove strategoje na akcionarske vrijednosti

ROC (return capital employed)Period odplateDCF (discounted cash flow)

Glavni infrastrukturni projekti Realne mogućnosti za analizu Udruživanje/akvizicija Proocjena novih investicija (biznis)

Aplikativno za diskretne projekteSamo opipljive troškove/benefit

Mjerljivost/kvatificiranje

Tehnički detalji

Rizik

Finacijska racionalna projekcija

Analiza senzitiviteta

Robustnost strategije

Testiranje predpostavki/robustnosti

break- even analiza

Uticaj na likvidnost

Šta ako?’ analiza Odvojeno testiranje pojedinih faktora

Reakcija IG- politička dimenzija strategije

Mapiranje IG Uglavnom kvalitativno

Neki od kriterija za procjenu prihvatljivosti strateških opcija

Assessing Profitability: Return on Capital Employed –employed

resources

Exhibit 10.8 Assessing Profitability: Payback Period –cash injected

Exhibit 10.8 Assessing Profitability: Discounted Cash Flow

Exhibit 10.10 Measures of Shareholder Value

Reakcija Intresnih grupa

Financijsak rekonstrukcija

Akvizicija / povezivanje

Novi Biznis modeli

Outsourcing

Izvodljivost

• Centralno pitanje je: dali je org sposobna ili ima resurse za realizaciju stratgije – Financijska izvodljivost – prognoza protoka

sredstava i potrebnih fondova (break-even analiza), nije pouzdan ali koristan ako se sprovodi ažurno (spreadsheet)

– Razvoj resursa (kako da razvijemo jedinstevene i core sposobnosti)

Zaključak

• Tri generalne metode za razvoj strategije su organski razvoj, spajanja i akvizicija, i savezi

• Uspjeh ili neuspjeh strategija će zavisiti od uspješnosti kriterija prikladnosti, prihvatljivost i izvedivost

• strategija konkurentnosti, pravci i metode strategija moraju biti usklađeni

Key Debate: Merger Madness: How Wisely is Merger Money

Being Spent?

Dodatak

Ovaj dio nije obradjen ali ima indirektne veze sa predhodnim materijalom.

bice objasnjeno detaljnije na sledecem predavanju

E-business strategy model building

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/cio/ads/fusion/assets/video/ibm_fusion.mp4

EXPERIMENTATION INTEGRATION TRANSFORMATION E-BUSINESS STRATEGY

No e-business strategy E-business strategy supports current (as is) corporate strategy

E-business strategy supports breakout corporate strategy

CORPORATE STRATEGY

e-business strategy not linked to corporate strategy

E-business strategy subservient to corporate strategy

E-business strategy is a driver of corporate strategy

SCOPE Departmental/functional orientation

Cross-functional participation

Cross enterprise involvement (interconnected customers, suppliers and partners)

PAYOFFS Unclear Cost reduction, business support and enhancement of existing business practices, revenue enhancement

New revenue streams, new business lines, drastic improvements in customer service and customer satisfaction

LEVERS Technological infrastructure and software applications

Business processes People, intellectual capital and relationships, co-operation

ROLE OF INFORMATION

Secondary to technology

Supports process efficiency and effectiveness

Information asymmetries use to create business opportunities

THREE LEVELS OF E-BUSINESS STRATEGY MIGRATION

E-business Strategy Model

Adapted from Hackbarth & Kettinger , 2000

Major Stages

Outputs

Initiate

• Outline scope• Identifystakeholders• Determine

schedule

Project workplan

Diagnose-Current environment IndustryCompany

• Competitive Current business

Assessment strategies• Benchmark Assess

customerE-business RelationshipsTechnology Assess e-

business• Assess technologyBusiness Assess

Partnerships businessPartnerships Current bus

strategies ranking

Opportunities Strengths and and threats weaknesses rankings rankings

Establish Strategy

• Match current business strategies with industry opportunities and threats and company strengths and weaknesses

• SWOT matrix• Brainstorm

alternative e-business strategies

E-business strategy

Transition

• Analyse gap between new and current strategy

• Factor in change readiness assessment and risk analysis

• Consider potential industry responses

• Plot e-business transition strategy milestones

E-business transition strategy

• Stage 1 : Initiate

• Outline scope

• Identify stakeholders

• Determine schedule

• Output : Workplan

E-business Strategy Model

• Stage II Diagnose - Company Analysis

• Identify current business strategies• Assess customers relationships• Assess suppliers relationships• Assess company e-business technologies• Use value chain to identify areas where IT

can add value

• Output : SWOT analysis

E-business Strategy Model

Strategic Priorities

Ranking

Company Opportunity / Threat

ranking

E-Business Strategy

Evaluate

E-business strategies

SWOT Assessment

Industry Strength / Weakness ranking

Stage III - E-Business Strategy

Adapted from Hackbarth & Kettinger , 2000

E-business strategy Status quo Strategy GapMinus Equals

Factor in change

readiness assessment

Factor in cost/

benefit risk analysis

Analysis gap difference between e-business strategy and current strategy

Consider potential industry responses

Plot e-business transition strategy including recommended courses of action and milestones

E-business Transition Strategy

Stage IV - Transition

Adapted from Hackbarth and Kettinger , 2000