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Stock Market Indicators:Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 3, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bulls & Bears 1Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 2Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 3Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 4AAII Sentiment 5Bull & Bears 6-10
Figure 1.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
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INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
11/2
Ratio Oct 19 1.81 Oct 26 2.05 Nov 2 2.24
11/2
RatioBull/BearRatio*
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2310
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Bulls Bears Oct 19 43.2 23.9 Oct 26 48.9 23.8 Nov 2 54.0 24.1
11/2
PercentageBullsBears
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235
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Correction Oct 19 32.9 Oct 26 27.3 Nov 2 21.9
11/2
PercentageCorrection
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Bulls & Bears
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700420047005200
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700420047005200
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
11/3
yardeni.com
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 2.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231600
6600
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16600
21600
26600
31600
3660041600
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11600
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3660041600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
11/3
yardeni.com
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 3.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Page 2 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23200
700
1200
1700
2200
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3700420047005200
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3700420047005200
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
11/3
yardeni.com
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 4.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
3660041600
1600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
3660041600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
11/3
yardeni.com
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 5.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Page 3 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-40
-20
0
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-40
-20
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S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*
11/3
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 6.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-40
-20
0
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-40
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S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
11/3
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 7.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
Page 4 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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Figure 8.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
25
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75
100
0
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AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
10/27
AAII Bull Ratio* (57.5)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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10/27
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio (1.4)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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0
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80 Latest Readings Bulls Bears Oct 20 46.9 27.8 Oct 27 39.8 29.4
10/27
Bulls (39.8)
Bears (29.4)
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
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AAII Sentiment
Page 5 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202420
40
60
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140
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
11/2
Oct
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 9.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235
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11/2
10/29
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO
S&P 500 Forward P/E* (21.2)
Investors IntelligenceBull/Bear Ratio (2.2)
yardeni.com
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 10.
Bull & Bears
Page 6 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
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3.5
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5.0
5.5
.0
.5
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5.5
11/2
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
Bull/Bear Ratio
52-week moving average (3.2)yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2340
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INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS + CORRECTION CAMP(percent)
52-week moving average (81.8)
Source: Investors Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Bull & Bears
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2310
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INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS(percent)
52-week moving average (18.2)
Source: Investors Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
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11/2
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE (BULLS + CORRECTION) / BEARS
52-week moving average (4.6)
Source: Investors Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
Bull & Bears
Page 8 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2320
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INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS: BULLS
52-week moving average (56.1)
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence
Figure 15.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2350
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11/2
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS: BEARS + CORRECTION
52-week moving average (80.4)
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence
Figure 16.
Bull & Bears
Page 9 / November 3, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 17.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2320
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STOCK MARKET BULLS(percent, Investors Intelligence)
11/2
Latest (54.0)
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2340
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STOCK MARKET BULLS + CORRECTION(percent, Investors Intelligence)
11/2
Latest (75.9)
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2310
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STOCK MARKET BULLS(percent, AAII)
10/27
Latest (39.8)
Source: Investors Intelligence and American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
yardeni.com
Bull & Bears
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