STATISTICS AND OUTLIERSAaron Saks

Process Advancement Leader

Boise, Inc

10/26/2011

Bio

• Graduated in 2007 – ChemE and PSE• Started career with Boise Inc, Wallula WA as a process engineer

• October 2008 went to work for Envoy Development

• April 2010 returned to Boise as Process Advancement Leader, Wallula WA

• November 1st 2011 move to Boise, ID to become Project Manager for Boise Packaging

Statistics and Data

• Why is it important?• Everything we really know, we know because of data.

• As a new engineer, we know how to apply math and logic to solve problems.• We don’t really know how anything works.

• By focusing on the data we can learn, solve problems, and teach others. • There is a lot of data out there.• Statistics = The language of data.

Thinking Statistically

• We can’t just think in terms of the “average”. • Need to think in terms of the distribution of data, and the probability of events occurring.

• What are good statistical tools for a new engineer?• Six Sigma methods• Understanding the common probability distributions and

their mean and variance• Understanding histograms and pareto charts• Excel skills

Tear Strength

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Freq%

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4.1%

0.34%

Current Capability: 30.3

Current Spec:32

4.1% represents ~ 1640 tons below current spec

~40 tons (0.1%) rejected for below-spec MD tear

Current Target: 42

Ppkm: Run to Target and Reduce Variation

• Historically, papermakers would run “in the warning” all day, as long as the tests are within specification limits.

• This resulted in running off target, with different means run to run (Poor Quality).

• Needed a way to encourage ($$$) running to targets, and reducing variation within the specs.

• Created a variation on the classical Process Capability metric “Cpk”.

• Result a financial incentive for improving Quality.

Ppkm - Running to Target and Reducing Variation

• Ppkm is an example of a process performance metric.

• Ppkm captures both deviation from target and variation within specification limits.

• If Ppkm >= 1, then the process is Capable: running to target and variation is well within specification limits

• To improve Quality we award operators for the number for Key Product Properties that have a Ppkm value above 1.0.

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Ppkm = 1.02

• Here is an example of a process that has a Ppkm>1, meaning it is fully capable of meeting customer expectations.

• Process is running to target – i.e. the mean is equal to the target

• Variation is well within the Specification (Red) limits.

8

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Caliper

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Ppkm = .65

9

Running to Target – Excessive variation

Acceptable variation – but off Target

Outliers

• We spend most of our time working on the outliers:• Process problems• Lowering cost• Increasing production

• Outliers exist in people too• Top 20• Middle 70• Bottom 10

• The future leaders of tomorrow will be from the top 20.

Thoughts for a New Engineer

• Understand what is expected • Focus on independent learning• Always speak from facts and data• Effective communication creates results • Focus on business results and accomplishments

• You don’t have to be at the top to be a leader

Questions:

• What has been your biggest challenge?• If you could go back to school what additional classes would you take?

• What's a typical day like?• What kind of products does Boise make?• How long do projects last?• What ethical issues have you encountered?