Space Weather in NextGen: An Update

Space Weather in NextGen: An Update

April 27, 2010

Cecilia Miner

NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch

April 27, 2010

Cecilia Miner

NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch

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OverviewOverview

NextGen Background

The Current State

Requirements Development

Space Weather Requirements

Demo…the Possibilities

NextGen Background

The Current State

Requirements Development

Space Weather Requirements

Demo…the Possibilities

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NextGen BackgroundNextGen Background

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NextGen BackgroundNextGen Background

Next-Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to:

Increase capacity and reliability

Improve safety and security

Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

Next-Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to:

Increase capacity and reliability

Improve safety and security

Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

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Current State—FAA Current State—FAA

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Current State—NOAA ResponseCurrent State—NOAA Response

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts; Airport Weather Warnings

(WFO)

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts; Airport Weather Warnings

(WFO)

Forecasts and weather support by region for aircraft after departure and prior to landing

(CWSU)

Forecasts and weather support by region for aircraft after departure and prior to landing

(CWSU)

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Airport Weather Warnings

(WFO)

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Airport Weather Warnings

(WFO)

Global/National guidance for turbulence, icing, cloud ceiling, visibility,

thunderstorms, wind, volcanic ash, space weather

(AWC/AAWU/HNL/SWPC)

Global/National guidance for turbulence, icing, cloud ceiling, visibility,

thunderstorms, wind, volcanic ash, space weather

(AWC/AAWU/HNL/SWPC)

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Current State—SWPC ResponseCurrent State—SWPC Response

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NextGen Now and FutureNextGen Now and Future

TodayToday NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)

Not integrated into aviation Not integrated into aviation decision support systems decision support systems (DSS)(DSS)

Inconsistent/conflicting on a Inconsistent/conflicting on a national scalenational scale

Low temporal resolution (for Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making aviation decision making purposes)purposes)

Disseminated in minutesDisseminated in minutes

Updated by scheduleUpdated by schedule

Fixed product formats Fixed product formats (graphic or text)(graphic or text)

Totally integrated into DSSTotally integrated into DSS

Nationally consistentNationally consistent

High temporal resolutionHigh temporal resolution

Disseminated in secondsDisseminated in seconds

Updated by events Updated by events

Flexible formatsFlexible formats

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Functional Requirements Process

Functional Requirements Process

JPDO chartered a multi-agency team: DOT, DOC, DoD, NASA, Industry

Functional requirements state “what” needs to be done.

Examples:

The NextGen shall forecast space conditions (e.g., solar flares, coronal mass ejections)

The NextGen shall forecast geomagnetic storm activity out through 48 hours

JPDO chartered a multi-agency team: DOT, DOC, DoD, NASA, Industry

Functional requirements state “what” needs to be done.

Examples:

The NextGen shall forecast space conditions (e.g., solar flares, coronal mass ejections)

The NextGen shall forecast geomagnetic storm activity out through 48 hours

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Performance Requirements ProcessPerformance Requirements Process

Multi-agency team formed by FAA with focus on users

Preliminary ideas used for FAA investment decisions

Much progress made since then, but performance require-ments development continues

Multi-agency team formed by FAA with focus on users

Preliminary ideas used for FAA investment decisions

Much progress made since then, but performance require-ments development continues

Portfolio

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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response*

NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response*

* Viereck, Murtagh, Kunches, March 2010

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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

Determine time of onset of solar radiation (flare) activity

Achievable now through far-term

Based on currently available solar x-ray observations; measurements will continue on GOES (NOAA)

Determine location of geomagnetic storm activity

80% probability now through mid-term; achievable by end-state

Current specifications based on ground-based magnetometers (USGS); higher spatial resolution (more stations) may be required

Determine time of onset of solar radiation (flare) activity

Achievable now through far-term

Based on currently available solar x-ray observations; measurements will continue on GOES (NOAA)

Determine location of geomagnetic storm activity

80% probability now through mid-term; achievable by end-state

Current specifications based on ground-based magnetometers (USGS); higher spatial resolution (more stations) may be required

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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

Forecast intensity of solar radiation (flares) 12, 24, and 36 hours in advance

50% or less probability of achieving through far-term

Current forecasts provide probabilities of having flares of various magnitudes. Accurate prediction of the magnitude of tomorrow’s flares is not yet achievable. Current research (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DoD)

Forecast intensity of solar radiation (flares) 12, 24, and 36 hours in advance

50% or less probability of achieving through far-term

Current forecasts provide probabilities of having flares of various magnitudes. Accurate prediction of the magnitude of tomorrow’s flares is not yet achievable. Current research (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DoD)

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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

Could show one or more data sources here

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Getting There…DemosGetting There…Demos

Icing

Demo Application Layers

Data CubeRegistries

Data Sources

https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/NNEWD

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2/

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Getting There…DemosGetting There…Demos

Icing

Demo Application Layers

Data CubeRegistries

Data Sources

https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/NNEWD

http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2/

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Questions?