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Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Gujarat Aviation Conclave, Ahmedabad
July2017
Page 2Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Agenda
• Performance of Indian aviation sector over last 10 years
• Shift in the aviation market towards developing economies
• Performance of Gujarat aviation sector
• Opportunities in Gujarat
Page 3Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Performance of Indian aviation sector (1 of 2)
► During FY2017 vis a vis FY2016 total traffic, domestic and international traffic grew with 18%, 22%,8.3% respectively
► Domestic traffic lead the growth and thriving Indian Economy in the later half of FY2008-17 fuelled the growth
► Competitive fares primarily on account of reasonable Aviation Turbine Fuel Price translated in robust demand for air travel
► Allotment of additional Bilateral rights to Middle Eastern carriers sustained the growth of international traffic
Source: Airports Authority of India
Trend of cargo traffic
Trend of passenger traffic
Trend of ATM
► During FY2017 vis a vis FY2016 total traffic, domestic and international traffic grew with 14.2%, 16.2%,6.7% respectively
► Domestic cargo traffic grew at a faster rate than International and its share out of total grew from 34% to 39%
► This can be attributed to increasing FTK on scheduled passenger flights on one hand and demand driven on account of e-commerce on the other hand
► The development of cargo terminals at tier2/tier3 airports is likely to facilitate the growth in the years to come
► During FY2017 vis a vis FY2016 total traffic, domestic and international traffic grew with 10.1%, 7.4%,11.9% respectively
► Continuous aircraft induction by Indian carriers especially IndiGo coupled with high aircraft utilization rate translated in high growth of ATM
► Installation/upgradation of landing aids and a better airspace management at many Indian airports also facilitated the growth of ATM
1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.30.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.40.4
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
million
Domestic International
87.1 77.3 89.4 105.5 121.5 116.4 122.4 139.3 168.9 205.7 29.8 31.6 34.4
37.9 40.8 43.0 46.6
50.8 54.7
59.3
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
million
Domestic International
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3
1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017Carg
o i
n m
illion t
one
Domestic International
CAGR FY2008-17; Total: 9.5%, Domestic: 10%, International:7.9%
CAGR FY2008-17; Total: 6.3%, Domestic: 7.9%, International:5.5%
CAGR FY2008-17; Total: 5.1%, Domestic: 5.0%, International:5.4%
Page 4Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Performance of Indian aviation sector (2 of 2)
Source: Directorate General of Civil Aviation
33.541.7 37.7
44.052.7
59.1 56.6 59.167.0
81.0
48.760.6 59.2 61.1
68.278.6 75.8
80.7 84.8
97.768.8% 68.9%63.7%
72.0%77.3% 75.1% 74.6% 73.3%
79.0%82.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
PL
F
RP
K/A
SK
in
billio
n
RPK ASK PLF
Demand and Capacity trend of domestic sector
Domestic cargo carried-Belly vs Dedicated
82.1 79.7 78.8 76.9 80 79.9
17.9 20.3 21.2 23.1 20 20.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
% s
hare
of
carg
o
Belly cargo Dedicated cargo
During past few years, reasonable price of ATF has helped airlines to keep operating costs under check and sell inventory at a competitive price. Once the costs goes up on account of increase in ATF price, pricing of inventory above costs could be
challenging
Airlines proactively needs to rationalize capacity induction to avoid any mis-match in supply and demand
► Indian carriers continuously deployed capacity during FY2007-16 which grew with a CAGR of 8.0% and interestingly
► Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) grew with a CAGR of 10.2%
► Drop in capacity in FY2009 and FY2013 was a capacity rationalising exercise to counter the diminished demand on account of global financial crisis & sluggish Indian Economy, grounding of Kingfisher airline respectively
► Passenger Load Factor (PLF) grew significantly in FY2015 & FY2016 on account of thriving Indian economy and competitive air fares
► Nearly 80% of air cargo is being transported in the belly of passenger aircraft, primarily due to competitive rates offered by scheduled carriers to utilize belly capacity to earn ancillary revenues
► Notably dedicated cargo is also picking up, especially on account of demand rising due to popularity of e-commerce
► Many companies are expected to revisit their Supply Chain Strategies post implementation of the GST and same is likely to give a further push to air cargo demand in the years to come
Page 5Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
India is expected to be third largest aviation market by 2026
Source: IATA
1
6
5
4
3
2
7
9
8
10
1
6
5
4
3
2
7
9
8
10
Page 6Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Shift in the aviation market form developed to developing economy
Source: IATA
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Mexico
Australia
Philippines
Brazil
Turkey
Indonesia
Vietnam
India
United States
China 5.2%
2.6%
6.7%
3.5%
8.2%
5.2%
2.6%
6.0%
3.0%
4.2%
Corresponding CAGR
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
2.5%
3.9%
4.7%
4.8%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Japan
Italy
Germany
Canada
France
United States
United Kingdom
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
Turkey
Indonesia
China
India
Change in domestic O-D market in millions
(2015 to 2035)
Growth in per capita incomes (2015 to 2035)
Page 7Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Performance of Gujarat aviation sector
Source: Airports Authority of India
Trend of cargo traffic
Trend of passenger traffic
Trend of ATM
3.45 3.00 3.69 4.36 5.19 4.75 5.03 5.35 6.64
7.62 0.70 0.68
0.85 0.83
0.74 0.82 1.00 1.22
1.57 1.79
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
million
Domestic International
0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.06 0.06
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01
-
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
million
Domestic International
21.49 15.86 13.70 18.39 23.35 37.84 38.36 44.17 46.74 48.85 6.71 10.29 11.66
12.98 11.79
12.83 15.71 17.53
23.46 31.05
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
00
0 t
one
Domestic International
CAGR (%)
Domestic International Total
Gujarat 9.2 10.9 9.5
National 10 7.9 9.5
CAGR (%)
Domestic International Total
Gujarat 3.7 7.4 4.2
National 7.9 5.5 6.3
CAGR (%)
Domestic International Total
Gujarat 9.6 18.8 12.3
National 5.0 5.4 5.1
Page 8Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Opportunities in Gujarat aviation sector
Aero sports park,
Amreli
Aviation Park
Bagodara
Sector wise
opportunities
► Regional air connectivity
► MRO development
► Aviation park
► Aero sport actives
► Airport development
► Aviation training institute
► Helipad development
► Airfreight and cargo
MRO facility
Ankleshwar
Flight simulation
4D cinema
Aircraft exhibition
Air ballooning
Paragliding festivals
Parachuting, skydiving
Facility for private flying
MRO solutions
Conditioned
hangers for
modern
helicopter
Page 9Soaring opportunities in aviation sector
Sector wise MOU’s signed for development of Gujarat aviation sector
Sector MOU signed on Expected investment
(INR crore)
Expected employment
Helicopter operations for
promotion of tourismJanuary 2017 650 1300
Seaplane operations January 2017 40 50
Aviation training January 2017 250 200
Regional air connectivity January 400 500
Page 10Building robust eco system for Indian Aviation Sector
Thank You