SEX RATIO AT BIRTH (SRB): FINDINGS OF THE 1/4/2014

INTERCENSAL POPULATION AND HOUSING SURVEY

DEPARTMENT OF POPULATION AND LABOR STATISTICS

GENERAL OFFICE OF STATISTICS (GSO)

1. SITUATION OF FERTILITY RATE AND SRB

• Fertility rate: nationwide and by region/area

• SRB: nationwide and by region/area

VIETNAM’S TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) IN 2009-2014

• TFR is defined as the average number of live births that would be born to a women by the time she

ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific

fertility rates of the reference period (usually 12 months prior to the time point of the survey)

(calculated for women aged 15-49)

2.03 2.00 1.99 2.05

2.10 2.09

1.81 1.77

1.70

1.80 1.86 1.85

2.14 2.11 2.12 2.17

2.21 2.21

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nationwide Urban Rural Replacement-level fertility

TFR

• In recent years, the TFR of Vietnam has been relatively stable. The

nationwide TFR is equivalent to the replacement level, i.e. 2.1

children per women.

• TFR in urban areas fluctuated much more than that in rural areas.

• However, TFR in urban areas was always below the replacement

level, while that in rural areas was above the replacement level

(asymptotic with the replacement level).

TFR BY SOCIO-ECONOMIC REGION IN 2009-2014

• TFR varied among regions.

• Northern Midlands and

Mountains had the highest

TFR in the country in 2014.

• Southeast and Mekong

River Delta had the lowest

TFR, which was below the

replacement level.

TFR BY REGION

• In Northern Midlands and Mountains, Red River Delta, North and South Central

Coast, the TFR was above the replacement level and fluctuated much recently.

• In Central Highlands, the TFR was above the replacement level, however it

tended to decrease and be stabilized in recent years.

• Southeast and Mekong River Delta,

• Southeast and Mekong River Delta had the lowest TFR which was below the

replacement level, however it fluctuated between years - especially in Southeast.

• SRB is the number of boys being born per 100 girls during the

survey year (12 months)

• It reflects the predominance of boys over girls.

SRB IN VIETNAM, 1999, 2009-2014

107

110.5 111.2

111.9 112.3

113.8

111.2

112.8 112.2

1999 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

• The SRB was increased between

the population and housing

censuses 1999, 2009 and 2013.

• There were signs of decline in

2014 - 2016.

SRB BY URBAN/RURAL AREA AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ZONE, 2009 AND 2014

• Red River Delta had the highest

SRB in the country which tended

to increase during 2009-2014.

• In some regions, the SRB has

been declined to a balanced level.

• It is notable that the SRB in

Northern Midlands and

Mountains and Mekong River

Delta increased quickly.

SRB IN VIETNAM OVER 5 YEARS OF 2009-2014

• SRB in Vietnam tends to increase recently. However, this trend does not happen

the same way in all regions/areas

• SRB in urban areas decreased while that in rural area increased.

• In Northern Midlands and Mountains, Red River Delta, Central Highlands and

Mekong River Delta, the SRB tended to increase – especially in Northern

Midlands and Mountains and Mekong River Delta, from 108.5 and 109.9 to 116.1

and 114.1 respectively.

• In North and South Central Coast, Southeast, the SRB decreased – especially in

North and South Central Coast, from 109.7 to 105.5.

SRB BY PROVINCE/CITY IN 2014

SRB < 107.0

(26 provinces/cities)

Bình Thuận; Hậu Giang; Kon Tum; Ninh Thuận; Khánh Hoà; Quảng

Nam; Lâm Đồng; Bình Phước; Sóc Trăng; Quảng Ngãi; Phú Yên; Cà

Mau; Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu; Vĩnh Long; TP Hồ Chí Minh. (15 provinces)

Tuyên Quang; Ninh Bình; Hà Tĩnh; Thừa Thiên Huế; Vĩnh Phúc; Hà

Nam; Hải Phòng; Cao Bằng; Quảng Trị; Thanh Hoá; Bắc Kạn. (11

provinces)

107.0 <= SRB <= 111.0

(9 provinces/cities)

Gia Lai; Bình Dương. (02 provinces)

Phú Thọ; An Giang; Quảng Bình; Đà Nẵng; Nam Định; Hoà Bình; Lai

Châu. (07 provinces)

SRB >= 111.0

(28 provinces)

Long An; Đắk Lắk; Cần Thơ; Đồng Nai; Bình Định; Tây Ninh; Trà Vinh;

Bạc Liêu; Kiên Giang; Tiền Giang; Đồng Tháp; Bến Tre; Đắk Nông.

(13 provinces)

Bắc Giang; Lào Cai; Điện Biên; Lạng Sơn; Hà Giang; Thái Nguyên;

Hưng Yên; Nghệ An; Thái Bình; Hà Nội; Yên Bái; Bắc Ninh; Hải

Dương; Quảng Ninh; Sơn La. (15 provinces)

SRB BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF MOTHERS, 2010-2014

IlliteratePrimary

school

Lower

secondary

school

Upper

secondary

school

Vocational

andprofessiona

l training

University

and higher

SRB 106.6 111.0 111.8 113.0 111.7 114.6

106.6

111.0

111.8

113.0

111.7

114.6

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

112.0

114.0

116.0

SRB by level of education

0-2 3-5 6-8 9-10 12+

SRB 105.3 108.1 111.1 112.3 113.0

105.3

108.1

111.1

112.3 113.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

112.0

114.0

SRB by number of years at school

SRB AND LEVEL OF EDUCATION

• The higher the mother’s level of education was, the higher SRB was, from

106 to 111 in those completing primary school, 113 in those completing

upper secondary school and 115 in those completing university or higher.

• SRB in mothers going to school for 3 years was equal to the natural one,

i.e.. 105

• However, SRB increased to 108, 111 and 112 in mothers going to school

for more years, with the highest (113) belongs to mothers with ≥12 years

at school.

SRB BY ORDER OF THE BIRTH, 2010-2014

1 2 3+

SRB 110.2 108.1 120.2

110.2

108.1

120.2

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

• SRB was high in the 1st birth.

• Especially, it increased in the

3rd birth.

SRB BY ORDER OF THE BIRTH AND SEX OF THE PREVIOUS BIRTH, VIETNAM 2010-2014

• SRB in the 1st birth and 2nd

birth when the family did not

have a son was similar.

• SRB in the 2nd birth and 3rd

birth when the family already

had a son was similar.

• Especially, imbalance occurred

in the 3rd birth if the family did

not have a son.

SRB BY ORDER OF THE BIRTH

• There were interventions to enable sex selection right from the 1st

birth.

• In the 2nd birth, statistics show that the pressure for a boy

decreased, hence SRB was close to the natural one.

• In the 3rd birth, the pressure for a boy became the strongest. SRB

increased sharply (120.2 boys/100 girls), especially in couples

without a son (14.4 boys/100 girls).

2. DETERMINANTS OF SRB

Prenatal sex

selection

Sex preference

(needs)

Sex selection technology (supply) Reduced

fertility rate (pressure)

DETERMINANTS

• Sex preference (cultural factor): Vietnamese tradition and customs have

created boy preference.

• Sex selection technology (technical factor): In the world's development

trend, medical techniques and technology are increasingly improved, thus

the needs of the society are better met.

• Reduced fertility (demographic factor): The tendency of reduced fertility is

the result of family planning programs and policies and is also an obvious

trend of the development process. This directly affects the decision of

couples on the number of children they would like to have.

3. CONCLUSIONS

• In recent years, SRB tends to increase; however, we can not conclude

whether it will continue to increase in the coming years.

• There are signs that SRB can potentially be slowed down or decreased in

the future.

• SRB among regions varies depending on demographic and development

factors of each region.

4. RECOMMENDATIONS

• To strengthen efforts in monitoring SRB every year for timely actions. In

particular, it is necessary to enhance the monitoring and synthesis of birth

registration records for the most updated data.

• To continue and further promote efforts in communication on impact of

SRB imbalance.

• To pay attention to the variations and differences among regions, areas

and target groups in order to have timely and relevant policies and

programs of action.

THANK YOU.