SEB report: crude oil prices to stay steady

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Oil Market ReportLight ends under pressure

14 MAY 2012



2

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market

Currently the greatest uncertainty affecting the crudeoil price outlook concerns high OPEC production. InQ1-12, a major market surplus apparently existed withSaudi Arabia, supported by increasing supply fromLibya and Iraq, seeking to drive prices downwardtowards the OPEC basket price target of $100/b. It didso mainly because, even more so than anyone else, theSaudis do not want Iran to possess a nuclear bomb. Itis therefore imperative for its leaders that the currentembargo on Iranian exports impacts fully, successfullyresolving the Iranian nuclear issue. With Saudi Arabianot wanting a high oil price to compensate monetarilyfor lost Iranian exports, we expect it to continue to tryto force prices lower through overproduction, astrategy supported by the expected release of OECDStrategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), boosting supplyfurther in late Q2 or Q3 this year. These factorstogether with increasing Libyan and Iraqi productionand signs that Iran is willing to resume negotiations allexert downward pressure on our mid-year priceprojections.

The Brent crude oil price was further depressed during Apriland early May by several negative factors including weak

seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, the start of a newround of negotiations with Iran, less positive

macroeconomic sentiment, and high OPEC output. Bothsuppliers and consumers appear to have exploitedexcessive supplies to build stocks, at least initially

undermining the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s attempt tolower prices.

Several oil market headwinds have probably peaked and are

decreasing as the US driving season approaches, and asrefineries begin to ramp up production following the end oftheir traditional maintenance periods. In addition the

market remains supported by several supply side issues (e.g.lost production due to the Sudanese civil war, unrest in Syria

and Yemen, North Sea supply disruptions and a faster thanexpected natural decline in regional production, as well asdisputes regarding Kurdish oil payments resulting in supply

stoppages). Further, despite the restart of Iraniannegotiations the risk of a geopolitical price spike remains

high. Indeed, Iran may well have decided to re-enter a freshround of talks merely to win time. If so, the situation couldeasily, and rapidly, deteriorate once again.

We retain our Brent crude oil price outlook with Q2-12 at

$115/b, Q3-12 at $115/b and Q4-12 at $120/b (FY-12average: $117/b). However, on the one hand, ifmacroeconomic sentiment remains weak and provided

Iranian nuclear negotiations continue, Saudi Arabia is likelyto succeed in depressing the OPEC basket price towards

$100/b. On the other, if it does so Iran may becomeincreasing reluctant to continue talks, needing higher oil

prices to alleviate the country’s current economic problems.

Crude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115120

125

130

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

NYMEXWTI

ICE Brent

IEA gIEA gIEA gIEA global crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimates(mb/d)

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

j a n - 0

9

a p r - 0

9

j u l - 0 9

o k t - 0 9

j a n - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

j a n - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

j a n - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly global crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimates

2011

(mb/d)

Revision

(kb/d)

2012

(mb/d)

Revision

(kb/d)IEA 89.2 +70 90.0 +80EIA 87.92 +/-0 88.88 +70

OPEC 87.77 -10 88.67 +30

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecast

($/b) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full

Year 2012 - 115 115 120 1172013 125 - - - 120



3


Crude oilCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

12 month12 month12 month12 month time spreadtime spreadtime spreadtime spread(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120130

140

150

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

NYMEXWTI

ICE Brent

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

ICE Brent

NYMEXWTI

Brent futures curveBrent futures curveBrent futures curveBrent futures curve(ICE, $/b)

WTI futures curveWTI futures curveWTI futures curveWTI futures curve(NYMEX, $/b)

9193959799

101103

105107109111113115117119121123125127

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

m a r - 1 5

j u n - 1 5

s e p - 1 5

d e c - 1 5

m a r - 1 6

j u n - 1 6

12-03-09

12-04-11

12-05-11

87888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110

j u n - 1

2

s e p - 1

2

d e c - 1

2

m a r - 1

3

j u n - 1

3

s e p - 1

3

d e c - 1

3

m a r - 1

4

j u n - 1

4

s e p - 1

4

d e c - 1

4

m a r - 1

5

j u n - 1

5

s e p - 1

5

d e c - 1

5

m a r - 1

6

j u n - 1

6

12-03-09

12-04-11

12-05-11

Speculative positions WTISpeculative positions WTISpeculative positions WTISpeculative positions WTI(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)

Benchmark spreadsBenchmark spreadsBenchmark spreadsBenchmark spreads(daily closing)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2

0 0 8

2

0 0 9

2

0 1 0

2

0 1 1

2

0 1 2

Short

LongNet

-28-26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m

a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m

a j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a

u g - 1

0

s

e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d

e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m

a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m

a j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a

u g - 1

1

s

e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d

e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m

a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m

a j - 1 2

WTI minus BrentBrent minus DubaiBrent minus Urals

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research



4


Crude oilUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)

OOOOECDECDECDECD totaltotaltotaltotal industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

j f m a m j j a s o n d

5 year average

2011

2012

c

2525

2550

2575

2600

2625

2650

2675

2700

2725

2750

2775

2800


5 year range, top

5 year range, bottom

2012

5 year average

OECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

OECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

900

910

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1020


5 year range, top


2012

5 year average

1175

1200

1225

1250

1275

1300

1325

1350

1375

1400


5 year range, top


2012

5 year average

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

OPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC production(kb/d, monthly data)

375

380

385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435440

445

450


5 year range, top


2012

5 year average

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

j a n - 0

8

m a r - 0

8

m a

j - 0 8

j u l - 0 8

s e p - 0

8

n o v - 0

8

j a n - 0

9

m a r - 0

9

m a

j - 0 9

j u l - 0 9

s e p - 0

9

n o v - 0

9

j a n - 1

0

m a r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

s e p - 1

0

n o v - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

m a r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

s e p - 1

1

n o v - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

m a r - 1

2

OPEC-12 productionOPEC-11 production

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research



5


European oil product markets

Since the beginning of April, European oil productsprices have fallen alongside those of crude oil.Corrections in middle and heavy distillates have been

similar to those taking place in the crude oil marketwhile others affecting light distillates have been moresevere. Their divergence is also reflected in sharplylower naphtha and gasoline cracks with thoseinvolving the rest of the barrel either stable or rising.Due to the ever present sovereign debt crisis and itspotential implications for demand European refinerscurrently seek to minimize both crude and productinventories. While the Atlantic basin maintenanceseason is now ending, it will peak in Asia in Q2.Consequently, we forecast greater future productavailability in Europe with only a slightly smalleraddition in Asia as new capacity largely offsets that

off-line. An increase in Atlantic basin supply ahead ofthe seasonal improvement in demand could prolongthe current setback in refining profitability. Newcomplex Asian refineries are exerting additionalpressure on the economics of less complex refineries inthe Atlantic basin, e.g. by being able to buy cheaperfeedstock than their European competitors. New Asiancapacity has been added twice as fast as old Atlanticbasin capacity has been shut down.

Light ends: The light end of the barrel is currently the

weakest. Instead of naphtha, the petrochemical industry isusing cheaper propane as feedstock. Blending demand from

the gasoline pool continues but is weaker than earlier thisyear. Demand for naphtha is slightly better in Asia. In spiteof the recent correction in European gasoline, cracks remain

relatively strong since the market is being supported byarbitrage cargoes going to the US and West Africa. USgasoline supply is currently satisfactory but this could

change heading into the summer driving season.

Middle distillates: Despite relatively weak demandEuropean middle distillate markets are fairly tight andinventory levels low, the latter should however improve as

refineries ramp up again following maintenance. Jet fueldemand remains seasonally low though stronger in Europe

than elsewhere encouraging refiners to maximizeproduction while minimizing diesel output. Recently, USdistillate inventories have fallen well below normal seasonal

levels, indicating an increasingly tight, and potentiallysupportive, US middle distillate market.

Heavy ends: Like middle distillates heavier fractions of the

barrel have recently corrected but with cracks rising ratherthan falling. Japanese nuclear power plant closures andmaintenance elsewhere ensure equilibrium in an otherwise

oversupplied Asian market. Seasonally, European lowsulphur fuel oil demand is increasing while inventories

remain limited.

European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lightightightight endendendend benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Naphtha

Gasoline

European mEuropean mEuropean mEuropean middleiddleiddleiddle distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Jet fuel

Diesel 10 ppm

Gasoil 0.1%

EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

350375400425450475500525550575600625650675700725750775800

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

High sulphur fuel oil (3.5%)

Low sulphur fuel oil (1.0%)

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research



6


Oil productsUS gUS gUS gUS gasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)

US product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarks(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, daily closing)

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240


Gasoline 5 year average

Gasoline 2012

Distillate fuel oil 5 year average

Distillate fuel oil 2012

180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330

340350360

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Gasoline

Heating oil

US refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilization(%, weekly data)

ICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil and European premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiums to Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoil($/t, daily closing)

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91


2007-2011 avg.

2012

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

ICE Gasoil 0.1% (left)

Jet fuel premium (right)Diesel 10 ppmpremium (right)

EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean productproductproductproduct crackscrackscrackscracks($/b, daily closing)

European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lowowowow ---- hhhhighighighigh sulphsulphsulphsulphurururur fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil differentialdifferentialdifferentialdifferential($/t, daily closing)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Naphtha GasolineJet fuel Gasoil 0.1%Low sulphur fuel oil High sulphur fuel oilDiesel 10 ppm

-15-10-505

101520253035404550

5560657075

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2




7


Oil productsRegional 3Regional 3Regional 3Regional 3----2222----1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks($/b, daily closing)

European naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocks(kt, monthly data)

-6-4-202468

1012141618202224262830

32343638

j a n - 1

0

f e b

- 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1

0

m a

j - 1 0

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Asia (Minas)US (WTI)Europe (Brent)

Persian Gulf (Dubai)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

European gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocks(kt, monthly data)

EuroEuroEuroEuropean jet fuel stockspean jet fuel stockspean jet fuel stockspean jet fuel stocks(kt, monthly data)

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

100

150

200

250

300350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

European gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocks(kt, monthly data)

European fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocks(kt, monthly data)

1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research



8


Oil productsUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

US implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

13,5

13,8

14,0

14,3

14,5

14,8

15,0

15,3

15,5


5y avg.

2011

2012

8,5

8,7

8,9

9,1

9,3

9,5

9,7


5y avg.

2011

2012

US implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)

4,0

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

5,0

5,2

5,4

5,6


5y avg.

2011

2012

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2

m a

j - 1 2

Heating oil/Gasoil

Jet fuel/Kerosene




9


Related energy marketsUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas price(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)

UKUKUKUK natural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas price(ICE, front month, weekly closing)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

14

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

$/MMBtu (left axis)

GBp/therm (right axis)

Nordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power price(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)

Continental power priceContinental power priceContinental power priceContinental power price(EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

EUA priceEUA priceEUA priceEUA price(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)

CoalCoalCoalCoal pricepricepriceprice(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115120

125

130

135

j u n - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

j a n - 1

1

f e b

- 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1

1

m a

j - 1 1

j u n - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

j a n - 1

2

f e b

- 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1

2




10


Market indicatorsMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI World equity market indexequity market indexequity market indexequity market index(weekly closing)

UBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market index(price index, weekly closing)

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

JPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMI(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)

Regional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:s(monthly data)

32

34

36

3840

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

m a r - 0

6

j u n - 0

6

s e p - 0

6

d e c - 0

6

m a r - 0

7

j u n - 0

7

s e p - 0

7

d e c - 0

7

m a r - 0

8

j u n - 0

8

s e p - 0

8

d e c - 0

8

m a r - 0

9

j u n - 0

9

s e p - 0

9

d e c - 0

9

m a r - 1

0

j u n - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

m a r - 1

1

j u n - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

m a r - 1

2

US

Eurozone

China

Reference

Regional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial production growthgrowthgrowthgrowth(%, y/y, monthly data)

OECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicators(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

m a r - 0

6

j u n - 0

6

s e p - 0

6

d e c - 0

6

m a r - 0

7

j u n - 0

7

s e p - 0

7

d e c - 0

7

m a r - 0

8

j u n - 0

8

s e p - 0

8

d e c - 0

8

m a r - 0

9

j u n - 0

9

s e p - 0

9

d e c - 0

9

m a r - 1

0

j u n - 1

0

s e p - 1

0

d e c - 1

0

m a r - 1

1

j u n - 1

1

s e p - 1

1

d e c - 1

1

m a r - 1

2

US

EurozoneChina

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

China

Eurozone

OECD

USA

Reference

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research



11


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SEB Commodity Research

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst

[email protected]+47 9248 9230

Filip Petersson, Commodity [email protected]

+46 8 506 230 47

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