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Scientists Speak on Global Capacity Victoria Salin, Ph.D. Texas A&M University
[email protected] @SalinVicky https://www.linkedin.com/pub/vicky-salin/7/6b7/b39
Overview
• Capacity - 552 million cubic meters, 2014 • 20% higher than 2012• 6% annualized growth in last two years• 58 countries reporting• For more detail, please see 2014 IARW Global
Cold Storage Capacity Report
Global Capacity 2008-2014
• 13% annual growth rate over this 6 yr period
• In 2010 there was an update for China & India
Million cubic
meters
2008 266
2010 458
2012 496
2014 552
Growth in Global Refrigerated Warehouse Capacity
2008 2010 2012 20140
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Countries reportingCapacity million m3
India > USA as largest country market
India
United St
ates
ChinaJap
an
Great B
ritain
German
yBraz
il
Netherl
ands
France Ira
n
Indonesia
Canad
aSp
ain
Turke
y
Australi
a
Mexico Ita
lyChile
Egyp
t
Denmark
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140130
114
76
3224 23
16 16 15 14 128 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3
Refrigerated warehouse capacity, 2014, in million cubic meters
Annualized growth in refrig. space, 2010 and 2014
Turkey
Netherlands
Brazil
India
Great Britain
China
Germany
USA
Italy
Canada
France
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2014
2010
Long-term CAGR (%)
Markets w Unmet Need/Potential, Based on Urban Population
Brazil
Egypt
Morocco
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Nepal
Mexico
Libya
Panama
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Ukraine
Peru
El Salvador
South Africa
Oman
Yemen
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Largest ratios of refrigerated space to urban population
Middle Eastern Markets Are Included for the First Time
Tunisia
Turkey
Egypt
Morocco
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Libya
Oman
Yemen
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2
USA Public Warehousing Growth
'55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 -
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
Public Private
Retail Supermarket Development
China India Russia Brazil South Africa
Modern Sales 0.6449 0.0178 0.6141 0.5069 0.5507
Modern Outlets 0.0533754483644735 0.000482606072793083
0.101392247032981 0.0219125305349807 0.115093004448039
5.00%
15.00%
25.00%
35.00%
45.00%
55.00%
65.00%Shaded bar is % of food sales in modern format (supermarket/hypermarket)
Solid bar is % of food outlets that are modern format
Annual growth modern supermarket sales, per capita, 2008-2013
Research Needed for Prediction
As I stated in a focus session at Convention 2011, • Macroeconomic linkages• Disposable income
derived demand• International trade• Business structures• Demand from customers
in local markets
Recent forecast by Markets and Research, reported in Food Logistics online). Cold storage warehousing is predicted to have an “…annual growth rate of 15.75 percent and 10.53 percent in terms of revenue and volume, respectively, over the period 2014 to 2019.”
Was it based on a valid predictive model?
Acknowlegements – Research Assistance from:
• Yun Gao• Chuks Anselm• Chelsea Takahashi
• Dr. Victoria SalinCo-Director of the Agribusiness, Food, & Consumer Economics Research Center
Contact: [email protected] Tel. 979.845.8103@SalinVicky https://www.linkedin.com/pub/vicky-salin/7/6b7/b39
PLEASE CONTACT ME WITH IDEAS AND QUESTIONS
