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Noviembre 2017 Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return 1 Marketing material for professional investors or advisors only 1 Schroder International Selection Fund Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return

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Page 1: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Noviembre 2017Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1

Marketing material for professional investors or advisors only 1Schroder International Selection Fund Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return

Page 2: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

1

Fuente: Thomson Datastream, Schroders Economics Group, 9 Oct. 2017.

Previsiones de crecimiento revisadas al alza2017 es un punto de inflexión

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Consensus world GDP forecast, y/y %

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Previsión actualizadaLa recuperación global continúa y Europa la encabeza

2

Fuente: Schroders Economics Group, 10 August 2017. Please note the forecast warning at the back of the document.

5.0

2.7

3.2

3.9

5.0 4.75.2 5.2

2.3

-0.7

4.9

3.5

2.7 2.63.1 3.1

2.63.0 3.0

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Contributions to World GDP growth (y/y), %

US Europe Japan Rest of advanced

BRICS Rest of emerging World

Forecast

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3

La previsión comienza en Q3 2017. Fuente: Thomson Datastream, Schroders Economics Group, 25 Sept 2017.Forecast risk warning: please see the important information slide for full risk warning.

¿Seguirá la liquidez creciendo?La liquidez global se ha incrementado en $1.5 TR este año

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Eurozone Japan Switzerland China US UK

forecastValue of assets in central banks' balance sheets, USD tn

Page 5: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Los riesgos geopolíticos…… siguen al acecho

4

Fuente The Economist, August 2017

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Nuestra visión en renta fija emergenteResumen

5

Source: Schroders.

– Valoraciones caras

– Sobre-vendida

– La liquidez global en vías de reducirse

– Sensibilidad a los ciclos de tipos de USA

– Exposición mínima

Deuda Externa

– Importantes políticas monetarias restrictivas han tenido lugas en varios países

– Tipos reales altos y la inflación contenida en Argentina, Brasil, Méjico, Rusia, South Africa, Indonesia e India

– Los Bancos centrales de estos países tienen margen de expandir la economía

– Exposición en países clave

Deuda Local

– La sostenibilidad de la Balanza de pagos se ha recuperado en los países emergentes

– Atractivo en BRL, MXN, RUB, ZAR, INR y MYR.

– Hemos tomado beneficios en PLN, HUF y CZK. A la espera de otro momento de entrada

– Añadir

Divisas

Page 7: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

La oportunidad

6

Source: JP Morgan; Bloomberg – 31 October 2017.

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-40%

-24%

-25%

Desplome de las divisas emergentes

JP Morgan EM currency index 2000–2017

Page 8: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Papel en las carteras

Como entrada en el RF EM o combinando con estrategias de EMD con beta

Como estrategia de Retorno Absoluto, diseñadopara diversificar e incrementar los beneficios

Como inversión alternativa líquida

Objetivos

No perder en periodos de 12 meses consecutivos

Maximizar las rentabilidades después de alcanzarel primer objetivo

Enfoque

El Universo de inversión incluye divisas, deudaexterna y local soberana y corporate/convertibles de 50 países

Long-only, con enfoque de retorno absoluto

Sin apalancamiento

Control del riesgo basado en la diversificación, stop-losses y la liquidez

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt AR

7

Source: Schroders.

Page 9: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

8

Fuente: Schroders.

Fundamental

Quantitative

Technical

Sentiment

Análisis

Global review Quarterly

Country reviews Weekly

Asset allocation

Toma de decisiones

Límites

Disciplina

stop-loss

Control de riesgos

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARProceso de inversión

Page 10: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt AR

9

Fuente: Schroders – October 2017. Please note that such limits are internal and may be subject to change without notice.1The fund will not have exposure to tobacco or munitions related investments.

Country limits

Tier I (max 20%) Tier II (max 10%) Tier III (max 5%)

Brazil Argentina Bulgaria Morocco

Hong Kong Chile Croatia Nigeria

Korea China Ecuador Pakistan

Mexico Colombia Egypt Panama

Poland Czech Republic Gabon Peru

Russia Hungary Ghana Qatar

Singapore India Greece Rep. of Congo

South Africa Indonesia Iraq Romania

Taiwan Philippines Ivory Coast Serbia

Turkey Saudi Arabia Jordan Slovakia

Thailand Kazakhstan Ukraine

United Arab Emirates Kuwait Uruguay

Latvia Venezuela

Lithuania Vietnam

Malaysia ANY OTHER

Total Tier I: 100% Total Tier II: 50% Total Tier III: 25%

Max

Region

Latin America 75%

Asia 75%

Eastern Europe 50%

Africa/Middle East 25%

Countries Any country Total

Tier I 20% 100%

Tier II 10% 50%

Tier III 5% 25%

Corporate Any corporate1 Total

2.5% 25%

Security Any security

10% NAV/per issue

CASH 40%

Reglas de diversificación

Page 11: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Volatility2

Dic 1998 a Sept 2017 Dic 1998 a Sept 2017

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARDescorrelacionado

10

Source: Bloomberg; Schroders – 29 September 2017.1Schroder EMD Absolute Return C NAV net. 2Annualised standard deviation of monthly returns. 3GBI – EM inception July 2001. 4Based on average monthly returns of peer group.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested.

Schroder EMD Absolute Return1 Correlation

Global Bonds 0.53

Global Equities 0.36

US Treasuries 0.22

US Equities 0.25

Global High Yield 0.50

Euro Government Bonds 0.50

Euro Equities 0.39

Commodities 0.28

GBI EM3 0.74

EMBI+ 0.61

ELMI+ 0.61

EM External Debt (EMBI+)

EM Currencies (ELMI+ )

EM Local Debt (GBI EM)3

Schroder EMD Absolute Return1

Absolute Return Funds (Lipper)4

Annualised return US$

World Govt.Bonds

WorldEquitiesUS Treasuries

Page 12: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

-10

40

90

140

190

240

290

340

390

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Fund¹ Lipper AR² Lipper EMD²

Risk/reward vs. Lipper universes

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt AR: Dic 1998–Oct 2017

11

Fuente: Schroders – 31 October 2017.1C NAV net. 2Generated by Schroders from compounded monthly mean peer group returns sourced from the Lipper Universe database. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested.

Since 31 December 1998 FundLipper

AR Avg.2

Lipper EMD Avg.2

Annual Rate of Return % 7.27 4.26 8.21

Annual Volatility % 6.13 9.73 10.87

Sharpe Ratio 0.92 0.30 0.64

Sortino Ratio 1.80 0.41 0.75

Correlation 0.62 0.70

Negative Quarters % 29.33 40.00 30.67

Maximum Drawdown % -9.89 -26.45 -27.54

Best Month % 8.78 8.51 9.29

Worst Month % -3.77 -12.59 -19.44

Max 12M Rolling Return % 32.39 31.25 45.56

Min 12M Rolling Return % -8.28 -24.51 -25.08

1. Brazilian Real crisis2. End of TMT Bubble 3. Turkish Lira Crisis4. 9/11 Terrorist Attacks and

Argentina default5. Enron/Worldcom Bankruptcies, US Accounting Scandals and

Brazilian Crisis 6. Brazilian Political Crisis

7. Subprime Crisis8. Money Market Freeze9. Interbank Market Freeze/

Bear Stearns Collapse10. Lehman Bankruptcy/

Global Financial Crisis11. Eurozone Debt Crisis12. Taper Tantrum, EM/China slowdown

Cumulative total return US$%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Page 13: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

2008 US credit crisis

2015EM/China crisis

-9.9%

-8.9%

Schroder ISF EMD ARprice (100 in Dec 98)1 Schroder ISF EMD AR rolling 12 month performance1

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARCorrecciones bajo control

12

Fuente: Schroders; Bloomberg – 31 Oct 2017.1C NAV gross.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested.

Page 14: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARAnálisis cuantitativo

13

Fuente: Schroders.

Sovereign risk model

Total de los resultados en todos los factores= global risk score

6 factores por país:+/-2

Dinámicas de crecimiento

Liquidez externa

Indicadores de “Hot money”

Sistema doméstico bancario

Ciclo de crédito

Competitividad

Page 15: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARCambios políticos

14

Fuente: Google; Schroders – Julio 2017.

India Indonesia Argentina Brasil Sudáfrica

Prime Minister N Modi

President J Widodo

President M Macri

President RousseffPresident Temer

President J Zuma

Crisis = cambios

Page 16: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Indicadores Long term sentiment cycle

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARAnálisis sentimiento

15

Fuente: Schroders. The pie chart illustrates our view of the sentiment cycle and is purely hypothetical.

Consensus forecast model

Fund manager risk index

Short term sentiment

Flow analysis

Ratings agency

Forgotten assets; no good reason seen to buy.

Removed from indices

Prices rise, some recognition of new

trend

Broad based buying

Aggressive buying: THE asset to own

Assets thought of as a ‘core’ holding despite

price falls

Investors note the price falls buy maintain fundamentals

are unchanged

Investors recognise fundamentals have

changed and sell

Rapid falls; fund closures; panic

Fuera de moda

Entrada temprana

Participación

Nuevo entornoFe ciega

Desconocimiento

Aceptación

Capitulación

Page 17: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

0 1 2 3 4 5

INR

CZK

BRL

MXN

MYR

CLP

PLN

RUB

HUF

ARS

ZAR

GBP

COP

THB

EUR

SGD

GHS

IDR

KRW

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt AREstrategia a 31 octubre2017

16

Fuente: Schroders – 31 Oct.2017.¹Can include short and long dated government securities issued in G3 countries.

Exposición en bonos% Exp en divisas vs dólar% Exposición regional%

Africa / Middle East4,3

Europe20,7

Asia14,4

Latin America26,8

G33,0

Cash30,8

Fund duration 1.79 yearsCorporate exposure 1.30%Average credit rating AYield to maturity 3.36%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Cash

External Debt

G3¹

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

India

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Singapore

Thailand

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Russia

Ghana

South Africa

Local Debt 66.83%External Debt 2.34%G3 3.00%Cash 30.83%Currency exposure 46.0%

Page 18: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

dic-98 dic-99 dic-00 dic-01 dic-02 dic-03 dic-04 dic-05 dic-06 dic-07 dic-08 dic-09 dic-10 dic-11 dic-12 dic-13 dic-14 dic-15 dic-16

Cash EM local currency debt EM external (US$) debt Net US$ exposure

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARExposición histórica: dic 1998-Sept 2017

17

Fuente: Schroders – 31 October 2017.

Page 19: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

dic-98 dic-00 dic-02 dic-04 dic-06 dic-08 dic-10 dic-12 dic-14 dic-16

Schroders ISF EMD Absolute Return JP Morgan EMBI+ index

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARDuración histórica: dic 1998-Oct 2017

18

Fuente: Schroders; JP Morgan – 31 October 2017.

Duration/years

Typical EMD fund carries extreme interest-

rate/credit risk

Page 20: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

–USD % 19951 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD

2017

Fund2 24.69 22.43 3.68 0.31 30.00 17.64 3.25 28.11 10.99 12.41 0.72 14.60 8.31 -0.31 19.75 3.04 0.77 5.46 0.93 0.64 -4.79 9.81 7.88

Since December 19982

Fund2 EMBI+ ELMI+

Annual rate of return 8.63 10.07 5.39

Volatility 6.12 9.71 7.38

Negative quarters 17 20 24

Sharpe ratio 1.14 0.89 0.52

Correlation vs. Schroders 1 0.62 0.62

USD %

Since inception1, 2

Cumulative total return

Annual rate of return

Volatility -ve Qs Sharpe ratio

Fund2 650.18 9.32 7.19 20 0.98

EMBI+ 1,031,76 11.32 12.38 23 0.78

ELMI+ 270.93 5.97 8.35 28 0.47

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARRentabilidad en USD – septiembre 2017

19

Fuente: Schroders; JP Morgan.1Inception 23 February 1995.2Composite gross NAV to NAV.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested.

Page 21: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

% External debt Local debt and currency Fund return1 Fund volatility

YTD 2017 0.08 7.90 7.82 n/a2

2016 2.13 7.63 9.83 2.36%

2015 0.34 -4.91 -4.78 2.98%

2014 0.61 -0.12 0.65 4.65%

2013 2.31 -0.97 0.92 3.04%

2012 3.23 2.38 5.44 3.73%

2011 0.04 0.60 0.79 3.70%

2010 0.03 3.43 3.01 3.63%

2009 8.30 10.25 19.72 8.71%

2008 1.18 -0.53 -0.25 7.19%

2007 1.25 7.18 8.32 3.72%

2006 1.78 12.07 14.60 3.91%

2005 -1.32 2.02 0.72 3.23%

2004 1.82 11.02 12.41 5.57%

2003 3.83 10.93 11.19 4.49%

2002 2.69 20.26 28.23 5.27%

2001 0.50 7.79 3.21 7.91%

2000 10.07 7.59 17.62 8.39%

1999 29.11 0.90 29.19 10.48%

Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt ARPerformance Attribution por sector

20

Fuente: Schroders – 29 September 2017.1The fund return does not always equal the sum of the previous two columns. The difference is due to the residual in the attribution calculations, which is primarily due to the time difference between the NAV declaration and the pricing of the underlying holdings.2Standard deviation returns is not shown on a less than 12 month basis.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested.

Page 22: Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 · Schroder ISF Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return1 Noviembre 2017 ... Forecast risk warning: please see the important information

Important informationImportant Information:

This presentation does not constitute an offer to anyone, or a solicitation by anyone, to subscribe for shares of Schroder International Selection Fund (the “Company”). Nothing in this presentation should be construed as advice and is therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell shares.

Subscriptions for shares of the Company can only be made on the basis of its latest Key Investor Information Document and prospectus,together with the latest audited annual report (and subsequent unaudited semi-annual report, if published), copies of which can be obtained,free of charge, from Schroder Investment Management (Luxembourg) S.A. An investment in the Company entails risks, which are fully described in the prospectus.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested. Schroders has expressed its own views and opinions in this presentation and these may change.

This presentation is issued by Schroder Investment Management Ltd., 31, Gresham Street, EC2V 7QA, who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored.

The forecasts stated in the document are the result of statistical modelling, based on a number of assumptions. Forecasts are subject to a high level of uncertainty regarding future economic and market factors that may affect actual future performance. The forecasts are provided to you for information purposes as at today’s date. Our assumptions may change materially with changes in underlying assumptions that may occur, among other things, as economic and market conditions change. We assume no obligation to provide you with updates or changes to this data as assumptions, economic and market conditions, models or other matters change.

Risk Considerations:

The capital is not guaranteed. Investments denominated in a currency other than that of the share-class may not be hedged. The market movements between those currencies will impact the share-class. The Fund will not hedge its market risk in a down cycle. The value of the fund will move similarly to the markets. Changes in China's political, legal, economic or tax policies could cause losses or higher costs for the fund.

Third Party Data Disclaimer:

Third party data is owned or licensed by the data provider and may not be reproduced or extracted and used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Third party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. The data provider and issuer of the presentation shall have no liability in connection with the third party data. The Prospectus and/or www.schroders.com contains additional disclaimers which apply to the third party data.

21

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Thank you

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ContactSchroder Investment Management Limited,

31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA.

schroders.com