SCHOOL CLOSURE STUDY SESSION - ic-BOARD2016esbpublic.mdusd.k12.ca.us/attachments/db50df0c-d073-4663-ae2a-… · Historic Demographics Student Enrollment: Since 2002, Mt. Diablo Unified

SCHOOL CLOSURE STUDY SESSION

Mt. Diablo Unified School DistrictJanuary 19, 20115:30-8:30 PMInformation presented is available at www.mdusd.org

Committee Process, Timeline, and Selection

Timeline for School Closure Advisory Committee (SCAC)

January 2010 Board action to close schools to reduce district expenditures by $1.5 million

April to May 2010 Application period for SCAC

June 2010 Hired Jack Schreder & Associates for demographic studies

August 2010 Selection of Committee

September 7, 16, 30October 14, 21, 28November 4, 8, 15, 29December 6, 13

Committee meetings

Selection of School Closure Advisory Committee By Feeder Patterns (Concord, Clayton Valley, Mt. Diablo, College

Park, Ygnacio Valley, Northgate) Employee Parent Community Administrator Student

Employee Groups MDEA CST CSEA DMA MDSPA M & O

District Committees and Facilitators

District Committees Budget Advisory Committee Community Advisory Committee Parent Advisory Committee

Staff Facilitators Bryan Richards, Chief Financial Officer Joe Marsich, Manager of Research & Evaluation Rose Lock, Assistant Superintendent of Student

Achievement and School Support

Charge of Committee

Complete an evaluation of all district schools based upon the district criteria and make impartial, fact-based recommendations for closure to the Board.

Criteria & Rubric

Criteria

1. Facility condition 2. Capacity utilization 3. Operations and maintenance costs4. Available capacity within facility or adjacent

facility 5. Academic performance 6. Geographic equity 7. Improved facility conditions for students8. Cost of consolidation/closure

Evaluation Rubric

Each school was rated on a rubric of 1-20 points for each criteria.

Site #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 Total

Ayers 6 10 12 16 11 20 3 78

Bancroft 14 6 10 16 16 17 18 97

Bel Air 16 10 10 16 1 4 11 68

Cambridge 13 17 15 18 10 18 20 111

Delta View 20 20 15 19 15 18 19 126

El Monte 10 4 13 1 7 1 5 41

Fair Oaks 15 6 6 15 10 5 4 61

Gregory Gardens 2 8 10 5 11 18 7 61

Hidden Valley 12 4 18 19 19 18 1 91

Elementary

Site #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 Total

Highlands 11 4 15 18 17 18 20 103

Holbrook 12 6 10 2 13 18 5 66

Meadow Homes 15 20 15 20 2 20 19 111

Monte Gardens 12 8 17 17 18 1 17 90

Mountain View 8 2 8 16 12 18 18 82

Mt. Diablo ES 12 10 18 20 17 20 12 109

Pleasant Hill ES 12 10 18 18 17 18 13 106

Rio Vista 16 4 3 15 1 1 16 56

Sequoia ES 12 13 16 17 16 1 8 83

Shore Acres 15 10 11 17 2 1 1 57

Elementary Schools (cont.)

Site #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 Total

Silverwood 1 8 8 10 12 11 6 56

Strandwood 5 10 16 17 16 17 2 83

Sun Terrace 13 6 15 17 15 18 13 97

Valhalla 13 10 15 17 17 18 15 105

Valle Verde 13 6 13 17 12 18 16 95

Walnut Acres 11 10 15 18 17 20 14 105

Westwood 11 10 9 15 12 20 19 96

Woodside 7 6 14 17 16 10 11 81

Wren Ave 12 2 7 15 7 5 10 58 Ygnacio Valley

ES 12 20 14 17 10 20 9 102

Elementary Schools (cont.)

Site #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 Total

Diablo View 16 8 11 13 16 20 20 104

El Dorado 4 4 14 18 6 20 6 72

Foothill 11 10 16 20 17 20 8 102

Glenbrook 14 2 9 10 3 5 14 57

Oak Grove 16 4 10 5 3 6 16 60

Pine Hollow 10 4 18 17 12 20 18 99 Pleasant Hill

MS 16 10 16 14 12 20 10 98

Riverview 17 6 1 16 4 20 12 76

Sequoia Mid 13 8 17 19 17 1 2 77

Valley View 1 4 19 15 12 20 4 75

Middle Schools

Site #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 Total

Clayton Valley 14 6 11 19 13 20 12 95

College Park 11 10 18 20 13 20 15 107

Concord 10 10 14 18 6 20 6 84 Mt. Diablo

HS 6 8 1 17 3 20 9 64

Northgate 15 10 8 16 17 20 18 104 Ygnacio

Valley HS 5 2 6 15 1 20 3 52

High Schools

Prepared by Cheryl King and Jamie Iseman from Jack Schreder & Associates

Demographics Study

Introduction

The Mt. Diablo Unified School District administrators requested an Demographic Analysis in order to assist the District in making decisions regarding potential school closures and the reconfiguring of current school boundaries so that the appropriate facilities are provided for current and future students of the district.

The following variables were analyzed and are provided in this study: A review of historical enrollments and migration rates; A review of the various land use trends and policies governing

residential development in the District; Measurements of student generation rates; Enrollment projections based on standard cohort methodology

and utilizing historical enrollments, District specific birth data, and student migration to determine the level of enrollment increases/decreases the District can expect;

Introduction (cont.)

Spatial Analysis demonstrating student residents in all attendance areas;

Student resident projections by attendance areas; Enrollment projections by school vs. capacity at those schools;

Facility Capacity Analysis at all sites and comparison of capacity to current enrollments by site;

Facility Capacity compared to projected residents and enrollments.

We recommend the District continue to monitor all variables included in this analysis, and update the projections each Fall and Spring as new data becomes available (Pre‐K Registration Data, Birth Data, Enrollment Data).

Historic Demographics/Land Use & Planning

Historic Demographics

Student Enrollment: Since 2002, Mt. Diablo Unified School District’s enrollments have declined from 36,891 to 34,088, an overall decline of 2,803 students or ‐7.6%.

Kindergarten enrollment declined overall since 1995, by 10.15%.

Smaller incoming Kindergarten class sizes can result in smaller overall enrollments as these cohorts matriculate through the system.

Private school enrollment for private schools located in MDUSD declined by 30.1% from 1999 to 2009.

These data indicate a concurrent decline of private school enrollment and MDUSD public school enrollment.

Historic Demographics (cont.)

Population: Total population in MDUSD is projected to increase slightly through 2015.

The relevant school‐age population in MDUSD (5‐19) declined from 2000 to 2010 and is projected to decline again through 2015.

The Under 5 population is projected to decline slightly through 2015.

Land Use & Planning

Student Generation Rates: Accurate student generation factors are important in planning for future facilities. The consultant accessed a database of all residential housing units constructed in MDUSD between 2005 and 2010. This database was cross‐referenced with the 2010‐11 MDUSD student list to determine the number of students generated per housing unit (SGR) by grade level, by year of construction, and by housing type. A total of 1,336 units were surveyed within the District.

Single Family Detached Homes in MDUSD will generate .403 K‐12th grade students per household.

Single Family Attached Homes in MDUSD will generate .219 K‐12th grade students per household.

Land Use & Planning (cont.)

Residential Development: The effects of residential and commercial development and land use planning affect the Mt. Diablo Unified School District.

The consultant contacted all relevant city and county planners in order to determine the potential build‐out timelines for all projects.

This information should be updated as more information becomes available.

The consultant must avoid double counting students generated by new housing.

Since the migration rates for the district include students generated from past housing development, no future students generated from planned development were added into the projections.

Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Projections

Methodology: In order to continue to effectively plan, school district administrators need a 10‐Year enrollment projection. This projection is dual‐purpose; 1) for 1‐2 year short‐term budgeting and staffing, and 2) for 7‐10 year facility planning.

The consultant utilized the industry standard cohort “survival”methodology to prepare the 10‐Year enrollment projection for the Mt. Diablo Unified School District. While based on historical enrollments the consultant adjusts the calculation for District specific data.

Births: Births are the single best predictor of the number of future kindergarten students to be housed by the District.

Births peaked in 1990 at 5,025 and then declined sharply, dropping by 701 births by 1997. Births increased in from 1997 to 2003 and have declined each year since (with the exception of 2006).

Enrollment Projections (cont.)

Migration: MDUSD experienced negative migration at all grade levels since 2001 with the exception of migration from K>1stgrade and, since 2006, from 8>9th grade.

The average loss of students through migration at all other grade levels has remained consistent.

Projections: Three enrollment projections, (low, moderate, and high) were prepared for this study utilizing birth rates and migration rates. Based on the Most Likely projection, K‐12th grade enrollments are projected to continue to decline to 32,305 by 2020‐21.

Enrollment projections were prepared by grade and school. The District will need to review and update these projections annually to determine if projected development and trends are accurate.

10‐Year Most Likely Enrollment ProjectionMt. Diablo Unified School District Most Likely Enrollment Projection

School Year

Grade Actual 10‐11 11‐12 12‐13 13‐14 14‐15 15‐16 16‐17 17‐18 18‐19 19‐20 20‐21

K 2,585 2,690 2,516 2,501 2,482 2,363 2,411 2,467 2,532 2,585 2,6391 2,578 2,661 2,766 2,592 2,577 2,558 2,439 2,487 2,543 2,609 2,6612 2,529 2,503 2,586 2,691 2,517 2,502 2,483 2,364 2,412 2,468 2,5343 2,458 2,486 2,460 2,543 2,648 2,475 2,459 2,440 2,321 2,369 2,4254 2,482 2,407 2,436 2,410 2,493 2,597 2,424 2,408 2,389 2,270 2,3195 2,568 2,447 2,372 2,400 2,374 2,457 2,562 2,389 2,373 2,354 2,2356 2,436 2,503 2,381 2,307 2,335 2,309 2,392 2,497 2,323 2,308 2,2897 2,412 2,424 2,491 2,370 2,295 2,323 2,297 2,380 2,485 2,312 2,2968 2,483 2,392 2,404 2,471 2,350 2,275 2,303 2,277 2,360 2,465 2,2929 2,899 2,799 2,708 2,721 2,787 2,666 2,591 2,620 2,594 2,677 2,78110 2,721 2,727 2,627 2,536 2,548 2,615 2,494 2,419 2,447 2,421 2,50411 2,388 2,381 2,387 2,287 2,196 2,208 2,275 2,154 2,079 2,107 2,08112 2,236 2,276 2,269 2,275 2,175 2,084 2,097 2,163 2,042 1,967 1,996EOTH 774 722 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730SOTH 539 522 523 523 523 523 523 523 523 523 523

K‐5 15,200 15,194 15,136 15,137 15,091 14,951 14,777 14,554 14,570 14,655 14,8136‐8 7,331 7,319 7,277 7,148 6,980 6,907 6,993 7,155 7,169 7,085 6,8769‐12 10,244 10,183 9,991 9,818 9,707 9,574 9,457 9,356 9,162 9,173 9,363OTH 1,313 1,244 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253

Total 34,088 33,940 33,657 33,356 33,030 32,686 32,480 32,318 32,155 32,165 32,305

Elementary School Projections

Elementary SchoolsGrade Levels

Actual 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16

Ayers K‐5 431 437 434 427 423 422Bancroft K‐5 459 468 463 476 454 448Bel Air K‐5 454 463 472 474 488 483Cambridge K‐5 688 677 681 682 675 666Delta View K‐5 750 779 818 832 852 855El Monte K‐5 464 470 473 479 476 472Fair Oaks K‐5 338 332 329 328 321 322Gregory Gardens K‐5 411 407 399 374 369 366Hidden Valley K‐5 736 741 748 752 731 739Highlands K‐5 629 631 622 593 595 588Holbrook K‐5 397 374 368 361 367 355Meadow Homes K‐5 917 931 933 956 932 926Monte Gardens K‐5 551 543 535 527 513 508Mt. Diablo K‐5 810 792 773 772 770 754Mountain View K‐5 407 412 416 410 405 402Pleasant Hill K‐5 647 647 666 683 675 668Rio Vista K‐5 390 387 373 381 381 361Sequoia K‐5 571 569 561 556 552 546Shore Acres K‐5 531 535 535 534 543 542Silverwood K‐5 400 401 402 403 397 402Strandwood K‐5 565 576 583 605 588 581Sun Terrace K‐5 550 565 570 582 619 628Valhalla K‐5 554 548 547 540 533 510Valle Verde K‐5 502 490 470 460 476 452Walnut Acres K‐5 623 620 589 589 588 581Westwood K‐5 397 398 399 400 403 395Woodside K‐5 523 537 519 506 495 486Wren Avenue K‐5 386 391 410 403 398 397Ygnacio Valley K‐5 511 515 512 506 502 496Total 15,592 15,638 15,601 15,592 15,523 15,350

Middle School Projections

Middle/Junior High SchoolsGrade Levels

Actual 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16

Diablo View 6‐8 647 681 658 647 632 626

El Dorado 6‐8 872 838 835 831 812 804

Foothill 6‐8 1,018 991 985 979 957 947

Glenbrook 6‐8 526 501 496 495 483 478

Oak Grove 6‐8 572 561 576 559 545 539

Pine Hollow 6‐8 722 742 752 721 703 696

Pleasant Hill 6‐8 799 778 773 766 748 741

Riverview 6‐8 745 759 732 727 710 702

Sequoia 6‐8 896 914 920 876 855 847

Valley View 6‐8 735 759 758 733 716 708

Total 7,532 7,526 7,485 7,334 7,162 7,088

High School Projections

High SchoolsGrade Levels

Actual 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16

Clayton Valley 9‐12 1,884 1,896 1,807 1,785 1,737 1,711

College Park 9‐12 1,997 1,950 1,895 1,840 1,823 1,796

Concord 9‐12 1,543 1,561 1,490 1,435 1,431 1,412

Mt. Diablo 9‐12 1,522 1,414 1,325 1,248 1,280 1,255

Northgate 9‐12 1,498 1,512 1,464 1,452 1,413 1,395

Ygnacio Valley 9‐12 1,308 1,237 1,173 1,110 1,114 1,093

Olympic Continuation 9‐12 323 361 390 349 353 352

Total 10,075 9,932 9,542 9,219 9,151 9,015

Necessary Small HSGrade Levels

Actual 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16

Crossroads 9‐12 55 52 54 51 51 51

Gateway 9‐12 47 49 54 53 53 53

Nueva Vista 9‐12 42 55 60 53 53 53

Prospect 9‐12 46 48 49 50 49 49

Summit 9‐12 38 47 53 47 47 47

Total 228 251 269 254 253 253

Spatial Analysis

Spatial Analysis

All 2010-11 students were “mapped” by a process called geocoding and then analyzed for use in this analysis: Overall, the highest numbers of students reside in the Mt.

Diablo, Meadow Homes, and Hidden Valley school boundaries; At the elementary school levels, the highest number of students

reside in the Meadow Homes, Meadow Homes, Hidden Valley and Mt. Diablo school boundaries, while the fewest number of students reside in the Monte Gardens and Westwood school boundaries.

At the middle school level, the highest number of students reside in the Riverview and El Dorado school boundaries, while the fewest number of students reside in the Diablo View boundary.

At the high school level, the highest number of students reside in the Clayton Valley and College Park high school boundaries, while the fewest number of students reside in the Ygnacio Valleyschool boundary.

MDUSD GIS Layers

•Students, Schools

•Attendance Areas

•Orthophotographs

•Parcels, Zoning

•Residential Development

•District Boundary, Streets, Railways, Parks, Waterbodies

K5 Density

K-5 Transfer Matrix Ayers

Bancroft

Bel Air

Cam

bridge

Delta View

El M

onte

Fair O

aks

Gregory Gardens

Hidden Valley

Highlands

Holbroo

k

Meado

w Hom

es

Mon

te Gardens

Mou

ntain View

Mt. Diablo

Pleasant H

ill

Rio Vista

Sho

re Acres

Silverwoo

d

Strandw

ood

Sun

Terrace

Valhalla

Valle Verde

Walnu

t Acres

Westw

ood

Woo

dside

Wren Avenu

e

Ygnacio Valley

Out of D

istrict

Total Atten

ding

Ayers 328 1 6 2 6 6 2 1 3 4 6 2 4 4 1 12 10 9 3 6 2 3 6 427 Bancroft 420 2 2 6 4 2 9 2 1 1 3 4 456 Bel Air 422 7 8 1 9 447 Cambridge 668 5 2 1 1 5 2 684 Delta View 6 704 24 4 6 744 El Monte 1 4 6 328 5 1 1 55 3 2 1 11 2 2 3 1 8 13 4 7 3 461 Fair Oaks 1 44 1 1 244 1 1 1 15 2 6 1 1 2 16 2 339 Gregory Gardens 6 7 1 1 6 325 19 5 1 3 4 1 2 8 4 6 1 2 1 1 6 410 Hidden Valley 1 1 1 694 1 7 1 1 5 1 3 2 1 2 7 728 Highlands 4 2 2 4 543 2 1 2 10 2 1 33 3 1 6 3 2 5 626 Holbrook 2 2 2 2 329 7 2 2 10 3 12 18 3 1 395 Meadow Homes 59 1 1 1 5 839 3 2 2 1 914 Monte Gardens 6 2 11 6 29 53 8 2 4 13 43 11 105 14 2 1 32 16 23 1 47 2 30 6 72 4 2 545 Mountain View 4 1 5 14 3 5 2 1 1 4 7 2 305 4 4 2 11 1 2 12 2 5 3 6 406 Mt. Diablo 5 6 1 787 1 5 2 2 809 Pleasant Hill 2 2 10 2 1 1 1 594 1 13 1 2 1 2 3 7 643 Rio Vista 2 376 7 1 386 Sequoia (Magnet) 3 9 1 8 24 20 61 58 55 9 15 13 1 12 1 48 3 8 13 79 22 48 1 1 4 11 10 31 569 Shore Acres 9 3 89 420 1 7 529 Silverwood 9 1 2 1 10 3 3 2 4 6 4 3 4 12 3 7 2 305 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 7 401 Strandwood 5 2 7 17 5 1 4 1 1 1 512 4 1 1 562 Sun Terrace 2 11 12 2 7 2 3 11 79 1 1 3 2 397 1 1 6 7 548 Valhalla 4 2 7 15 22 2 4 6 2 2 1 2 7 3 466 1 2 1 5 554 Valle Verde 1 8 5 2 17 3 1 3 2 5 2 1 427 4 1 6 1 7 4 500 Walnut Acres 7 1 3 3 7 1 1 2 1 5 580 2 5 618 Westwood 2 6 3 1 12 1 3 5 4 71 6 1 2 4 4 3 1 219 28 4 13 393 Woodside 3 22 2 18 1 14 11 1 1 3 1 16 3 1 4 1 3 2 3 3 1 374 2 21 10 521 Wren Avenue 5 3 4 2 1 4 50 1 4 1 1 1 4 1 296 1 2 381 Ygnacio Valley 2 7 2 7 2 1 2 131 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 5 335 3 511 Total Residing 365 478 498 873 807 471 393 428 819 616 435 1,224 246 373 816 664 604 490 423 629 511 538 446 592 295 429 458 453 133 15,507

# In‐Migration 99 36 25 16 40 133 95 85 34 83 66 75 440 101 22 49 10 109 96 50 151 88 73 38 174 147 85 176# Out‐Migration 37 58 76 205 103 143 149 103 125 73 106 385 141 68 29 70 228 70 118 117 114 72 19 12 76 55 162 118

% In‐Migration 23% 8% 6% 2% 5% 29% 28% 21% 5% 13% 17% 8% 81% 25% 3% 8% 3% 21% 24% 9% 28% 16% 15% 6% 44% 28% 22% 34%% Out‐Migration 10% 12% 15% 23% 13% 30% 38% 24% 15% 12% 24% 31% 57% 18% 4% 11% 38% 14% 28% 19% 22% 13% 4% 2% 26% 13% 35% 26%

School of Residence

Scho

ol of A

tten

dance

K-5 Transfer Matrix: Summary

In-migration of students is highest at: Monte Gardens (81%) Westwood (44%) Ygnacio Valley (34%) El Monte (29%)

Out-migration of students is highest at: Monte Gardens (57%) Fair Oaks (38%) Rio Vista (38%) Wren Avenue (35%)

6-8 Transfer Matrix

Diablo View

El Dorado

Foo

thill

Glenb

rook

Oak Grove

Pine Hollow

Pleaseant Hill

Riverview

Valley View

Other Districts

Total Atten

ding

Diablo View 512 19 2 17 41 38 16 1 646 El Dorado 761 1 47 20 7 26 6 868 Foothill 17 909 3 48 25 4 4 8 1,018 Glenbrook 4 484 16 1 13 4 522 Oak Grove 7 2 121 434 1 1 1 1 4 572 Pine Hollow 10 38 2 34 30 554 44 1 5 718 Pleasant Hill 1 11 1 35 58 2 653 19 11 10 801 Riverview 1 3 1 3 6 2 2 705 10 733 Sequoia (Magnet) 1 157 5 141 201 30 142 128 85 2 892 Valley View 1 3 2 34 18 2 70 21 577 7 735 Total Residing 526 1,020 925 919 872 662 872 977 675 57 7,505

# In‐Migration 134 107 109 38 138 164 148 28 158# Out‐Migration 14 259 16 435 438 108 219 272 98

% In‐Migration 21% 12% 11% 7% 24% 23% 18% 4% 21%% Out‐Migration 3% 25% 2% 47% 50% 16% 25% 28% 15%

School of Residence

Scho

ol of A

tten

dance

6-8 Transfer Matrix: Summary

In-migration of students is highest at: Oak Grove (24%) Pine Hollow (23%) Diablo View, Valley View (21%)

Out-migration of students is highest at: Oak Grove (50%) Glenbrook (47%) Riverview (28%)

9-12 Transfer Matrix

Clayton

Valley

College

Park

Con

cord

Mt. Diablo East

Mt. Diablo W

est

Northgate

Ygnacio Valley

YV/CP Area of

Cho

ice

Out of District

Toal Atten

ding

Clayton Valley 1,602 1 71 68 67 15 37 1 22 1,884College Park 1 1,670 3 3 6 3 8 285 12 1,991Concord 20 9 1,132 144 180 5 28 1 23 1,542Mt. Diablo 3 6 19 805 606 2 21 2 57 1,521Northgate 32 11 28 8 27 1,295 68 5 14 1,488Ygnacio Valley 6 13 23 73 228 8 887 26 38 1,302

Crossroads NSHS 1 5 5 12 21 0 4 0 5 53Gateway NSHS 0 0 0 43 1 0 0 0 3 47Nueva Vista NSHS 29 0 4 1 1 2 4 0 1 42Prospect NSHS 1 27 0 1 1 3 3 10 0 46Summit NSHS 5 2 15 5 8 0 2 0 0 37Olympic Cont. 31 40 30 49 87 3 65 11 3 319Total Residing 1,731 1,784 1,330 1,212 1,233 1,336 1,127 341 178 10,272

# In‐Migration 282 321 410 193# Out‐Migration 129 114 198 41

% In‐Migration 15% 16% 27% 13%% Out‐Migration 7% 6% 15% 3%

School of Residence

Scho

ol of Atten

dan

ce

42% 38%7% 30%

1101,034

389555

9-12 Transfer Matrix: Summary

In-migration of students is highest at: Ygnacio Valley (30%) Concord (27%)

Out-migration of students is highest at: Mt. Diablo (42%) Ygnacio Valley (38%)

Facility Capacity Analysis

Methodology for Capacity

An inventory of all school sites was created for this analysis. The current classrooms at each site were analyzed for use, “loaded” with State and District loading factors, and capacity calculated for all schools within the District.

The consultant then utilized two sets of loading factors: District Capacity at Critical Standards

K@29:1 1‐3@28:1 4‐5@30:1 6‐12@33:1 (maximum capacity) 6‐[email protected]:1 (working capacity) SDC@12:1

District Capacity at Critical Standards with Class Size Reduction K@29:1 1‐3@20:1 4‐5@30:1 6‐12@33:1 (maximum capacity) 6‐[email protected]:1 (working capacity) SDC@12:1

QEIA schools were excepted from these standards at all grade levels. It is generally recommended that school districts operate at 95%‐96% of Facility

Capacity.

2010-11 Elementary School Capacities

2010-11 CapacitiesSchool Name Number of Classrooms Capacity Capacity with CSRAyers 24 577 478Bancroft 26 673 550Bel Air 26 552 552Cambridge 35 678 678Delta View 31 829 682El Monte 30 750 622Fair Oaks 22 507 418Gregory Gardens 21 553 454Hidden Valley 45 1,215 1,006Highlands 36 951 790Holbrook 25 594 490Meadow Homes 44 898 898Monte Gardens 28 738 610Mountain View 32 790 658Mt. Diablo 39 1,059 874Pleasant Hill 31 829 682Rio Vista 24 656 538Sequoia 26 685 562Shore Acres 29 640 640Silverwood 24 543 454Strandwood 28 692 574Sun Terrace 33 870 718Valhalla 29 692 574Valle Verde 26 697 574Walnut Acres 29 783 646Westwood 23 514 430Woodside 29 704 586Wren Avenue 26 685 562Ygnacio Valley 26 470 470Total 847 20,823 17,770

2010-11 Middle School Capacities

2010-11 Capacities

School Name Number of Classrooms Capacity Capacity with Prep Period

Diablo View 26 869 754

El Dorado 44 1,397 1,194

Foothill 38 1,297 1,105

Glenbrook 31 1,055 907

Oak Grove 37 805 805

Pine Hollow 34 1,077 929

Pleasant Hill 33 1,010 878

Riverview 45 975 975

Sequoia 33 1,186 1,010

Valley View 37 1,197 1,027

Total 358 10,868 9,581

2010-11 High School Capacities

2010-11 Capacities

School Name Number of Classrooms Capacity Capacity with Prep Period

Clayton Valley 81 2,553 2,179

College Park 71 2,471 2,092

Concord 59 1,903 1,634

Mt. Diablo 75 1,699 1,699

Northgate 53 1,873 1,604

Ygnacio Valley 79 2,714 2,296

Total 418 13,213 11,502

School Facility Analysis

Current District capacities were compared to projected enrollments.

The District is projected to be 10,453 seats below current capacity by the 2015-16 school year.

Current Enrollment

Most Likely Projection 2015‐16

CurrentCapacity

+/‐Capacity

Elementary 15,592 15,350 20,823 ‐5,473

Middle 7,532 7,088 9,581 ‐2,493

High 10,075 9,015 11,502 ‐2,487

Total 33,199 31,453 41,906 ‐10,453

State Funding Eligibility by Site

SFP Modernization Eligibility

The State School Facility Program Modernization Program: Provides State funds on a 60/40 sharing basis for improvements to educationally‐enhance school facilities.

Projects eligible under modernization include air conditioning, plumbing, lighting, electrical, and other infrastructure systems.

Permanent buildings must be at least 25‐years old and a relocatable building must be at least 20‐years old.

Relocatable and permanent buildings can be replaced under “like for like” regulation (like for like square footage receives modernization apportionment).

The District’s modernization eligibility at each school site has been reviewed and updated for purposes of this analysis.

The MDUSD was proactive in modernization projects at all sites.

SFP Modernization Eligibility (cont.)

The MDUSD received funding for the majority of its schools sites through this program. However, the District has modernization eligibility remaining at some school sites. Modernization eligibility does not expire.

Once a site is closed the eligibility remains but the district will not be able to utilize this funding without reopening the school as enrollments are part of the calculation.

Potential funding (or lack thereof) may be considered as a factor in the school consolidation process.

Elementary School Modernization Eligibility

Elementary School Eligibility 2009-2010 OPSC Share District Share Total Project Cost

Ayers Elem $628,992 $419,328 $1,048,320Bancroft Elem $33,280 $22,187 $55,467Bel Air Elem $0 $0 $0Cambridge Elem $0 $0 $0Delta View Elem $0 $0 $0Eagle Park Montessori $0 $0 $0El Monte Elem $0 $0 $0Fair Oaks Elem $74,200 $49,467 $123,667Gregory Gardens Elem $123,136 $82,091 $205,227Hidden Valley Elem $66,560 $44,373 $110,933Highlands Elem $0 $0 $0Holbrook Elem $0 $0 $0Meadow Homes Elem $0 $0 $0Monte Gardens Elem $0 $0 $0Mountain View Elem $69,888 $46,592 $116,480Mt. Diablo Elem $0 $0 $0Pleasant Hill Elem $0 $0 $0Rio Vista Elem $0 $0 $0Sequoia Elem $648,960 $432,640 $1,081,600Shadelands Sp Ed Center $0 $0 $0Shore Acres Elem $0 $0 $0Silverwood Elem $0 $0 $0Standwood Elem $226,900 $151,267 $378,167Sun Terrace Elem $425,984 $283,989 $709,973Sunrise Sp. Ed. Ctr $0 $0 $0Valhalla Elem $132,132 $88,088 $220,220Valle Verde Elem $29,952 $19,968 $49,920Walnut Acres Elem $0 $0 $0Westwood Elem $130,984 $87,323 $218,307Woodside Elem $636,016 $424,011 $1,060,027Wren Ave. Elem $0 $0 $0Ygnacio Vallley Elem $0 $0 $0

Total $3,226,984 $2,151,323 $5,378,307

Middle School Modernization Eligibility

Middle School Eligibility 2009-2010 OPSC Share District Share Total Project Cost

Diablo View Middle $0 $0 $0

El Dorado Middle $0 $0 $0

Foothill Middle $482,240 $321,493 $803,733

Glenbrook Middle $0 $0 $0

Oak Grove Middle $0 $0 $0

Pine Hollow Middle $0 $0 $0

Pleasant Hill Middle $0 $0 $0

Ridgeview Middle $0 $0 $0

Sequoia Middle $0 $0 $0

Valley View Middle $844,800 $563,200 $1,408,000

Total $1,327,040 $884,693 $2,211,733

High School Modernization Eligibility

High School Eligibility 2009-2010 OPSC Share District Share Total Project Cost

Clayton Valley High $0 $0 $0

College Park High $1,523,893 $1,015,929 $2,539,822

Concord High $0 $0 $0

Crossroads Cont. High $248,778 $165,852 $414,630

Gateway High $230,350 $153,567 $383,917

Mt. Diablo High $0 $0 $0

Northgate High $543,626 $362,417 $906,043

Nueva Vista High $184,280 $122,853 $307,133

Olympic Cont. High $1,165,571 $777,047 $1,942,618

Prospect Cont. High $207,315 $138,210 $345,525

Summit High Cont. $156,638 $104,425 $261,063

Ygnacio Valley High $0 $0 $0

Total $4,260,451 $2,840,301 $7,100,752

Scenarios

Scenarios

Schools to Close Pros Cons Unknowns

Scenario #1

Glenbrook SilverwoodWren/Holbrook

Low costClosures do not zero in on one community

Only $1.5 M savingsElementarys serve communitiesMore disruptive to close a secondary school rather than elementary

Holbrook/Wren to re-boundary to alleviate overcrowding at Meadow HomesStudents west of 242 go to Sun Terrace

Scenario #2

El MonteGregory Gardens Holbrook Silverwood

$1.7 M savingsMeasure C savings by closing Gregory Gardens & Silverwood

Lose Holbrook option to take stress off Meadow Homes

See notes about HolbrookIf CSR comes back, cost goes up

Scenarios


Scenario #3

Gregory GardensShore AcresSilverwoodWren

Silverwood – no costsGregory Gardens – no costsWren – limited costs with CSRDispersal of high performing students of highly involved parents

Closing Shore Acreso Impacto Up-front costs

Closing high performing schools

To close Gregory Gardens, need further clarification of Sequoia becoming a “partial”neighborhood school like Monte Gardens

Scenario #4a

Sequoia MSSequoia ElWren

Dispersal of high performing studentsDispersal of highly involved parents

$3.5 M initial costs to save $1.5 MTaking away choice schoolsClosing high performing schools

General unknown –K-6?Cost for interim housing – what is time period?

Scenarios


Scenario #4b

Sequoia MSSequoia ElM.Gardens

Sequoia’s – not closing a neighborhood schoolDispersing higher scoring students to other schoolsShows that schools are equal – no choice needed

Too many classrooms & costs associated with closinglack of choice if closedReceiving schools do not have capacityNo ongoing guarantee to transfer (exception: schools of choice NCLB)Closing schools with high API

Don’t know where children/parents would opt to go (MDUSD school or to other districts)Safety needs to close campusFeasibility to close campuses

Scenario #5

Oak GroveFair OaksShore Acres

Based on our criteria –in bottom third of our summary of rankings

SA– insufficient capacity at other schoolsFO– freeway creates large barrier - schools left do not have capacityOG– low capacity in receiving schools, doesn’t take advantage of improvements already made

Safety needs to close campusFeasibility to close campuses

Scenarios


Scenario #6

Fair OaksAyersM.GardensSequoia El

Ayers – most remoteDoes not affect QEIA schools

Very costlyDomino effect on home schools (Monte Gardens, Sequoia)Fair Oaks boundary challenge – safety issueDoes not address declining enrollment

Loss of students to private or charter schools

Scenario #7

BancroftG.GardensWrenHolbrookRio VistaSilverwood

Highest annual cost savingsGeographic proximity

Many students will be affectedClosing a school in Bay Point – where there is population growthCost to build sufficient classrooms with CSR

Is there space to build extra classrooms?

Scenarios


Scenario #8

Oak GroveGlenbrook+ 2 elementary

Convert MDHS and YVHS to 6-12 andRMS to HS

REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION BY COMMITTEE

Addresses need for a high school in Bay Point and low enrollment at YVHS

Not enough information6-8 students at a HS campusCost of conversion

Evidence of success for 6-12 configuration

Voting Process and Recommendations

9 Scenarios for Voting

Scenario #1aGlenbrook, Silverwood, Wren

Scenario #4bSequoia MS, Sequoia El, Monte Gardens

Scenario #1bGlenbrook, Silverwood, Holbrook

Scenario #5Oak Grove, Fair Oaks, Shore Acres

Scenario #2El Monte, Gregory Gardens, Holbrook, Silverwood

Scenario #6Fair Oaks, Ayers, Monte Gardens, Sequoia El

Scenario #3Gregory Gardens, Shore Acres, Silverwood, Wren

Scenario #7Bancroft, Gregory Gardens, Wren, Holbrook, Rio Vista, Silverwood

Scenario #4aSequoia MS, Sequoia El, Wren

Voting Process

Each member of committee given 4 votes for the scenario voting

Each member of committee given 4 votes for individual schools

Vote by Scenarios

Scenarios # votes # peopleScenario #1a – Glenbrook, Silverwood, Wren 39 17

Scenario #1b – Glenbrook, Silverwood, Holbrook 16 9

Scenario #2 - El Monte, Gregory Gardens, Holbrook, Silverwood 7 6

Scenario #3 – Gregory Gardens, Shore Acres, Silverwood, Wren 5 4

Scenario #4a - Sequoia MS, Sequoia El, Wren 3 2

Scenario #4b - Sequoia MS, Sequoia El, Monte Gardens 13 6

Scenario #5 - Oak Grove, Fair Oaks, Shore Acres 1 1

Scenario #6 - Fair Oaks, Ayers, Monte Gardens, Sequoia El 1 1

Scenario #7 – Bancroft, Gregory Gardens, Wren, Holbrook, Rio Vista, Silverwood

6 5

Voting by Schools - Elementary

School #votes School #votes School #votesAyers 3 Holbrook 10 Strandwood 1

Bancroft 2 Meadow Homes Sun Terrace

Bel Air Monte Gardens 1 Valhalla

Cambridge Mt. Diablo Valle Verde

Delta View Mtn. View Walnut Acres

El Monte 5 Pleasant Hill Westwood

Fair Oaks Rio Vista Woodside

Gregory Gardens 7 Sequoia 4 Wren Avenue 17

Hidden Valley Shore Acres Ygnacio Valley 1

Highlands Silverwood 19

Voting by Schools - Secondary

Middle School # votes High School # votesDiablo View Clayton Valley

El Dorado College Park

Foothill Concord

Glenbrook 10 Mt. Diablo

Oak Grove 4 Northgate 4

Pine Hollow Ygnacio Valley 1

Pleasant Hill

Riverview

Sequoia 3

Valley View

Voting by members

1a 1b 2 3 4a 4b 5 6 7

2 2

2 2

4

2 1

2 2

4

1 2 1

2 1 1

2 2

4

3 1

1 1 1 1

3 1

Voting by members (cont)

1a 1b 2 3 4a 4b 5 6 7

1 1 1 1

2 2

3 1

1 1 1 1

4

1 1 1 1

2 2

4

4

1 1 2Total votes 39 16 7 5 3 13 1 1 6Total

members 17 9 6 4 2 6 1 1 5

Recommendations

Consensus of Committee to recommend:1. Scenario 1a: Glenbrook, Silverwood, Wren2. Scenario 1b: Glenbrook, Silverwood, Holbrook

Committee voted 14-10 to recommend:3. Scenario 4b: Sequoia Middle, Sequoia Elem,

Monte Gardens

Prepared by Jack Schreder & Associates

Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analyses Methodology

Following the development of 11 scenarios by the School Closure Teams, Jack Schreder & Associates analyzed all scenarios to determine the following: Did receiving schools have adequate capacity to house

enrollments? Were enclaves created? If so, could they be eliminated and the scenario continue to be

viable? How many classrooms would need to be constructed to

house new students at receiving schools? Provided analysis for each scenario to district for cost

analysis. Finally, JSA created maps to aid in the visualization of each

scenario.

Available Capacity

1a: Glenbrook, Silverwood, Wren1b: Glenbrook, Silverwood, Holbrook

Scenario 1a and 1b

Scenario 1

Close Glenbrook Send students to El Dorado, Oak Grove, and/or Valley

View. Close Silverwood

Send students to Ayers, Mountain View, and Highlands. Close Holbrook or Wren Avenue

Send Holbrook students to Wren Avenue, Sun Terrace, Monte Gardens, Westwood.

Send Wren students to El Monte, Holbrook, Monte Gardens and Westwood.

Scenario 1 (formerly 1‐1, 2‐1, 5‐2b)

Proposed School Closure Residents/Enrollments Receiving Schools

Current Enrollment

Current Capacity Available Seats

Classrooms Needed

Classrooms Needed with CSR

Silverwood 305/400 Ayers 431 577 146

Highlands 629 951 322

Mountain View 407 790 383

851 0 0

Holbrook 329/397 Wren 386 685 299

Sun Terrace 550 870 320

Monte Gardens (enclave) 551 738 187

Westwood (enclave) 397 514 117

923

619 0 3

Wren Avenue 296/386 El Monte 464 750 286

Holbrook 397 594 197

Monte Gardens 551 738 187

Westwood 397 514 117

787 0 2

Glenbrook 484/526 El Dorado 872 1,194 322

Oak Grove 572 805 233

Valley View 735 1,027 292

847 0 0

Scenario 1a and 1b

Silverwood and Wren can be closed to the specified schools.

Closing Holbrook to the specified schools creates 2 enclaves (Monte Gardens and Westwood are not adjacent to Holbrook). Holbrook can be closed to Wren and Sun Terrace.

Glenbrook can be closed to the specified schools.

Scenario 4b

Scenario 4b

Close Sequoia ES Send students to home schools.

Close Sequoia MS Send students to home schools.

Close Monte Gardens Send resident students to Wren Avenue and

Westwood. Send transfer students to home schools.

Scenario 4b (formerly 4‐2)

Proposed School Closure

Residents/Enrollments

Receiving Schools

Current Enrollment

Current Capacity

Available Seats

Classrooms Needed

Classrooms Needed with CSR

Sequoia Elementary 0/571 see chart 6 16

Sequoia Middle 0/896 see chart 3 3

Monte Gardens 105/551 Wren 386 685 299 0 0

Westwood 397 514 117 0 0

see chart 416 5 10

Analysis: Scenario 4b

Adequate capacity to house Monte Gardens residents at receiving schools

Closure of Monte Gardens: All Monte Gardens transfer students return to home schools. Requires the addition of 5 classrooms to home schools.

Closure of Sequoia Elementary: All Sequoia students return to home schools. Requires the addition of 6 classrooms to home schools.

Closure of Sequoia Middle necessitates the following: All Sequoia students return to home schools. Requires the addition of 3 classrooms to Pleasant Hill.


Proposed School ClosureTransfer Students

Return to:Current

Enrollment Current Capacity Available Seats

Number of Students Returning +/‐ Capacity

# of Classrooms needed

Monte Gardens Ayers 431 577 146 6 ‐140

Bancroft 459 673 214 2 ‐212

Bel Air 454 552 98 11 ‐87

Cambridge 688 678 ‐10 6 16 1

Delta View 750 829 79 29 ‐50

El Monte 464 750 286 53 ‐233

Fair Oaks 338 507 169 8 ‐161

Gregory Gardens 411 553 142 2 ‐140

Hidden Valley 736 1,215 479 4 ‐475

Highlands 629 951 322 13 ‐309

Holbrook 397 594 197 43 ‐154

Meadow Homes 917 898 ‐19 11 30 2

Monte Gardens 551 738 187 1 ‐186

Mountain View 407 790 383 14 ‐369

Mt. Diablo 810 1,059 249 2 ‐247

Pleasant Hill 647 829 182 1 ‐181

Rio Vista 390 656 266 32 ‐234

Shore Acres 531 640 109 16 ‐93

Silverwood 400 543 143 23 ‐120

Strandwood 565 692 127 1 ‐126

Sun Terrace 550 870 320 47 ‐273

Valhalla 554 692 138 2 ‐136

Westwood 397 514 117 30 ‐87

Woodside 523 704 181 6 ‐175

Wren Avenue 386 685 299 72 ‐227

Ygnacio Valley 511 470 ‐41 4 45 2

Out of District 2


Proposed School ClosureTransfer Students

Return to:Current

Enrollment Current Capacity Available Seats



Monte Gardens Ayers 431 478 47 6 ‐41

Bancroft 459 550 91 2 ‐89

Bel Air 454 552 98 11 ‐87

Cambridge 688 678 ‐10 6 16 1

Delta View 750 682 ‐68 29 97 5

El Monte 464 622 158 53 ‐105

Fair Oaks 338 418 80 8 ‐72


Hidden Valley 736 1,006 270 4 ‐266

Highlands 629 790 161 13 ‐148

Holbrook 397 490 93 43 ‐50

Meadow Homes 917 898 ‐19 11 30 2

Monte Gardens 551 610 59 1 ‐58

Mountain View 407 658 251 14 ‐237

Mt. Diablo 810 874 64 2 ‐62

Pleasant Hill 647 682 35 1 ‐34

Rio Vista 390 538 148 32 ‐116

Shore Acres 531 640 109 16 ‐93

Silverwood 400 454 54 23 ‐31

Strandwood 565 574 9 1 ‐8

Sun Terrace 550 718 168 47 ‐121

Valhalla 554 574 20 2 ‐18

Westwood 397 430 33 30 ‐3

Woodside 523 586 63 6 ‐57

Wren Avenue 386 562 176 72 ‐104

Ygnacio Valley 511 470 ‐41 4 45 2

Out of District 2


Proposed School Closure Transfer Students Return to: Current Enrollment Current CapacityAvailable Seats



Sequoia Elementary Ayers 431 577 146 3 ‐143

Bancroft 459 673 214 9 ‐205Bel Air 454 552 98 1 ‐97

Cambridge 688 678 ‐10 8 18 1Delta View 750 829 79 24 ‐55

El Monte 464 750 286 20 ‐266Fair Oaks 338 507 169 61 ‐108


Hidden Valley 736 1215 479 55 ‐424

Highlands 629 951 322 9 ‐313Holbrook 397 594 197 15 ‐182

Meadow Homes 917 898 ‐19 13 32 2Monte Gardens 551 738 187 1 ‐186

Mountain View 407 790 383 12 ‐371Mt. Diablo 810 1059 249 1 ‐248

Pleasant Hill 647 829 182 48 ‐134

Rio Vista 390 656 266 3 ‐263

Shore Acres 531 640 109 8 ‐101Silverwood 400 543 143 13 ‐130

Strandwood 565 692 127 79 ‐48Sun Terrace 550 870 320 22 ‐298

Valhalla 554 692 138 48 ‐90Valle Verde 502 697 195 1 ‐194

Walnut Acres 623 783 160 1 ‐159

Westwood 397 514 117 4 ‐113Woodside 523 704 181 11 ‐170

Wren Avenue 386 685 299 10 ‐289Ygnacio Valley 511 470 ‐41 31 72 3



Transfer Students Return to:

Current Enrollment CSR Capacity

Available Seats



Sequoia Elementary Ayers 431 478 47 3 ‐44Bancroft 459 550 91 9 ‐82Bel Air 454 552 98 1 ‐97

Cambridge 688 678 ‐10 8 18 1Delta View 750 682 ‐68 24 92 4El Monte 464 622 158 20 ‐138Fair Oaks 338 418 80 61 ‐19

Gregory Gardens 411 454 43 58 15 1Hidden Valley 736 1,006 270 55 ‐215Highlands 629 790 161 9 ‐152Holbrook 397 490 93 15 ‐78

Meadow Homes 917 898 ‐19 13 32 2Monte Gardens 551 610 59 1 ‐58Mountain View 407 658 251 12 ‐239Mt. Diablo 810 874 64 1 ‐63Pleasant Hill 647 682 35 48 13 1Rio Vista 390 538 148 3 ‐145

Shore Acres 531 640 109 8 ‐101Silverwood 400 454 54 13 ‐41Strandwood 565 574 9 79 70 3Sun Terrace 550 718 168 22 ‐146Valhalla 554 574 20 48 28 1

Valle Verde 502 574 72 1 ‐71Walnut Acres 623 646 23 1 ‐22Westwood 397 430 33 4 ‐29Woodside 523 586 63 11 ‐52

Wren Avenue 386 562 176 10 ‐166Ygnacio Valley 511 470 ‐41 31 72 3

Scenario 4a (formerly 3‐1)


Transfer Students Return to:

Current Enrollment Current Capacity

Available Seats



Sequoia Middle Diablo View 647 754 107 1 ‐106

El Dorado 872 1,194 322 157 ‐165

Foothill 1018 1,105 87 5 ‐82

Glenbrook 526 907 381 141 ‐240

Oak Grove 572 805 233 201 ‐32

Pine Hollow 722 929 207 30 ‐177

Pleasant Hill 799 878 79 142 63 3

Riverview 745 975 230 128 ‐102

Valley View 735 1,027 292 85 ‐207

Out of District 2

THANK YOU.Questions?

Documents

SCHOOL CLOSURE STUDY SESSION - ic-BOARD2016esbpublic.mdusd.k12.ca.us/attachments/db50df0c-d073-4663-ae2a-… · Historic Demographics Student Enrollment: Since 2002, Mt. Diablo Unified