1
Scenario Assumptions The Profile Bhopal Year 2005 Twowheelers 347571.00 Autos/ Tempo 10127.00 Cars/Taxi 37455.00 Buses 8294.00 Goods Carriages 9854.00 Tractors/ Others 14675.00 Total 427976.00 Vehicular population in Bhopal Municipal Corporation Total Population Decadal Growth Rate 2001 1991 Indore 1474968 1091674 35.11 Bhopal 1437354 1062771 35.25 Jabalpur 932484 741927 25.68 Gwalior 827026 690765 19.73 Source: Census of India, 2001, 1991 Bhopal District Study Area Delineated Area of District 2,772 km². 0 200000 400000 600000 Year 1985 Year 1985 Year 1995 Year 2002 Year 2004 Year 2005 Trend of Vehicular population growth in two decades in Bhopal Two- wheelers Cars/Taxi Scenarios Four scenarios were developed to understand the emission and energy demand in Bhopal for year 2030. One scenario is business as usual and three scenarios as Low Carbon Scenarios are considered with change in taxes for emissions and energy demand and introduction of efficient technologies to reduce the carbon emissions. In first Scenario Business as Usual the present trends of energy consumption, demography and vehicular growth is considered to continue in future. The business will run as usual and the shares of present technologies remain the same to fulfill the future demand with increased population and urban area. In Scenario Counter measure 1,new technologies are introduced with limitation of maximum share. In this scenario no taxes are introduced and the discount rate remains the same. In Scenario Counter measure 2, new technologies are introduced with limitation of maximum share. In this scenario high taxes on emission and energy are introduced and the discount rate is reduced. In Scenario Counter measure 3, new technologies are introduced with no limitation of maximum share thus a free economy for selecting the technology. In this scenario high taxes on emission and energy taxes are introduced and high discount rates are introduced. Share of Human and Animal energy is restricted as it becomes the first option due to its emission characteristics. Taxes and Discount Rate CASE NAME BL CM1 CM2 EMS_TAX 0 10 10 ENE_TAX 0 30 50 Discount RATE 33 33 5 Scenario Key Drivers Critical Parameters Sustainable Low Carbon Residential Sector Scenario Energy Efficiency, Sectoral demand, improved housing designs, shared facilities Energy demand (), improved eciency (), use of non conventional energy sources () Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Sector Scenario Shift from fossil fuels, high share of mass transit system, efficient Land development to reduce demand Energy demand (), improved eciency (), use of non conventional energy sources () Climate Centric Scenario Carbon Tax, Global Environmental Concerns, Rate of technological improvement, Technology transfer Early penetration of advanced and clean technologies, Technology rate () Electric Heater BOG Cow dung Charcoal Coal Biomass Efficient Fuel Wood Kerosene LPG Non Commercial Fuel wood Solar Cooker Flat Screen Television LCD Television Television Plasma Television Television High efficiency new two wheeler efficient Refrigerator ( Large ) Refrigerator ( Medium) Refrigerators (Small ) Refrigerator ( Medium) High Efficiency Energy Device Service Electricity Washing Machine Front loading Full Auto Washing Machine Top loading Full Auto Washing Machine Top loading Semi Auto Washing Machine High Efficiency Urban Residential Appliances Washing Residential Appliances TVV Residential Appliances Cooling Electric Stove (existing) Microwave Hot Plate Biogas Stove Residential Appliances Cooking Cow dung Stove Charcoal Stove Coal Stove Biomass (crop Residue) Stove Traditional Fuel wood Stove Efficient Fuel wood Stove Traditional Kerosene Stove Efficient Kerosene Stove LPG Stove High Efficiency LPG stove Urban Efficient non comm Fuel wood Stove Traditional non comm fuel wood stove Solar CFL Incandescent Lamp Tube light LED Kerosene Lamp Residential Appliances Lighting Solar Lamp Air Conditioner Split Air Conditioner Window Ceiling Fan Desert Cooler Table Fan Residential Appliances space cooling Biomass Based Residential Appliances space Heating Electric Geyser Storage Electric Geyser Instant Solar Water Heater Solar Water Heater Efficient Gas Geysers Residential Appliances Water Heating Coal Based Electricity Animal Powered Freight Animal 3WFreight Auto New 4 stroke 3WFreight Auto existing 2 stroke Train Goods Electric Gasoline Freight Service Urban High Speed Diesel Freight Service Rural Human Thela Freight 3WFreight Tempo New 3WFreight Tempo existing MCV diesel existing Freight HCV Truck MCV diesel New Freight Heavy Oil Train Goods Diesel Tractor Energy Device Service 2wheeler existing 2 stroke 2wheeler future 4 stroke 3wheel Auto existing 2 stroke Petrol Car New Petrol Car existing 3wheeler Auto 4 stroke Hybrid Car Electric passenger car 2wheeler future Electric Electric Car HCV Electric Bus Train Passenger Electric Bus CNG Maxi Cab CNG CNG passenger car Energy Device Service Gasoline Passenger Service Urban High Speed Diesel Electricity Passenger Service Rural Human Bicycle Walk Solar Solar car 3wheeler Tempo existing 4 stroke Diesel Car New Diesel Car existing HCV existing Diesel Bus HCV New Diesel Bus Heavy Oil MCV diesel existing Passenger MCV diesel New Passenger Train Passenger Diesel MCV Hybrid Natural Gas Animal Powered Cart Animal Conclusions: The simulations for energy demand and emissions BAU and LCS scenarios are carried based on the technologies and service demand assumptions using AIM/Enduse Model in this study. Policy paths formulated in these scenarios show the likely rise in energy consumption, technology shift and CO2 emission in transport sector Bhopal. The study demonstrates that significant emission mitigation can be achieved in LCS compared to the BAU scenario. Policy decisions are crucial for reducing the emissions. With increasing concerns on environmental issues and rising public awareness the LCS scenario assumes a greater significance. The precise decisions on government policies promoting efforts for emission reduction and use of cleaner fuels and technologies have a major contribution to make. LCS Scenario in Transport and Residential Sector for Bhopal. Dr. Kshama Puntambekar School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal, INDIA Residential, 53% Commercial, 4% Industrial, 3% Public and Semi Public, 14% transport, 4% Utilities and Services, 1% Recreation, 21% Land Use Distribution 2021 Residential, 58.9 Commercial, 2.1 Industrial, 3.3 Public and Semi Public, 16.4 transport, 6.9 Utilities and Services, 0.8 Recreation, 11.5 Land Use Distribution 2005 Bhopal Land use Plan 2005 SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION in Seven Actions for LCS Scenario ACTIONS Residential Commercial Industry Passenger Transport Freight Transport 1 GREEN GOVERNANCE 2 HOLISTIC HABITAT 3 SUSTAINABLE STYLE 4 CELLULAR CITY FORM 5 FORM AND FLOW 6 NURTURING NATURE 7 RURAL RICHES Sustainable Style – Low Carbon Lifestyle Introduction to environmental concerns Use of energy efficient appliances 3R principle Change in lifestyle Form and Flow – Integrating Transport with City Structure Migration to Sustainable Technology Connecting Cells Enhance Public Transport Traffic Management Simulation Output The simulation is performed for Transport and Residential Sector. It was observed that Bhopal has 60% GHG emission reduction potential over BaU level in the possible Low Carbon Society Scenario in transport sector. The simulations show that the GHG emission and energy consumption for transport sector increases in all the scenarios. The GHG emissions in transport sector of Bhopal in 2005 were around 22 thousand ton CO 2 which rise by around 3 times to 61 thousand ton CO 2 in the target year 2030 under the BaU. The simulation assessment of Counter measure 2 shows that in the scenario introducing free technology selection and high emission and energy taxes, technology using energy with minimum emissions is selected in which mainly animal and human energy. In reality this is not possible to use such energy completely. Some limit for maximum allowable energy supply needs to be assigned. Counter measure 1 and 3 displays the possible emission and energy demand reduction potential. Sector Energy/ Fuel Quantity 1.Residential Electricity (Mkwh) 340.10 LPG (MT) 49,240.00 Fuel wood (MT) 1,275.30 Kerosene (kL) 2,388.00 2.Transportation Diesel (kL) 59,369.80 Petrol (kL) 48,842.50 Sector wise energy use (200708) S. No Sector CO2 Emissions 1 Residential 36% 2 Transportation 39% Sector wise emission in urban area (200708) 19 th AIM International Workshop at NIES, Tsukuba, Japan 1314 Dec 2013 Population in year 2011 Total Urban Rural India 1.22 billion 37,71,05,760 83,30,87,662 Madhya Pradesh 7,25,97,565 2,00,59,666 5,25,37,899 Bhopal 23,68,145 19,17,002 4,54,059 Population Energy Demand for all Scenarios Emissions for all Scenarios Energy Demand in years for all Scenarios Mass Transit system helping to improve the traffic condition

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Page 1: Scenario Assumptions -

Scenario AssumptionsThe Profile

Bhopal Year 2005

Two‐ wheelers 347571.00 

Autos/ Tempo 10127.00

Cars/Taxi 37455.00

Buses   8294.00

Goods Carriages 9854.00

Tractors/ Others 14675.00

Total   427976.00

Vehicular population in BhopalMunicipal Corporation

Total Population Decadal Growth Rate

2001 1991

Indore 1474968 1091674 35.11

Bhopal 1437354 1062771 35.25

Jabalpur 932484 741927 25.68

Gwalior 827026 690765 19.73

Source: Census of India, 2001, 1991

Bhopal District  

Study Area Delineated

Area of District 2,772 km².

0

200000

400000

600000

Year1985

Year1985

Year1995

Year2002

Year2004

Year2005

Trend of Vehicular population growth in two decades in Bhopal

Two- wheelers Cars/Taxi

ScenariosFour scenarios were developed to understand the emission and energy demand in Bhopal for year 2030. One scenario isbusiness as usual and three scenarios as Low Carbon Scenarios are considered with change in taxes for emissions and energydemand and introduction of efficient technologies to reduce the carbon emissions.

In first Scenario Business as Usual the present trends of energy consumption, demography and vehicular growth isconsidered to continue in future. The business will run as usual and the shares of present technologies remain the same tofulfill the future demand with increased population and urban area.

In Scenario Counter measure 1,new technologies are introduced with limitation of maximum share. In this scenario no taxesare introduced and the discount rate remains the same.

In Scenario Counter measure 2, new technologies are introduced with limitation of maximum share. In this scenario hightaxes on emission and energy are introduced and the discount rate is reduced.

In Scenario Counter measure 3, new technologies are introduced with no limitation of maximum share thus a free economyfor selecting the technology. In this scenario high taxes on emission and energy taxes are introduced and high discount ratesare introduced.

Share of Human and Animal energy is restricted as it becomes the first option due to its emission characteristics.

Taxes and Discount RateCASE NAME BL CM1 CM2EMS_TAX 0 10 10

ENE_TAX 0 30 50

Discount RATE 33 33 5

Scenario Key Drivers Critical  Parameters

Sustainable Low Carbon Residential Sector Scenario

Energy Efficiency, Sectoraldemand, improved housing designs, shared facilities 

Energy demand (↓),  improved efficiency (↑), use of non conventional  energy sources (↑)  

Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Sector Scenario

Shift from fossil fuels, high share of  mass  transit system, efficient Land development  to reduce demand 

Energy demand (↓),  improved efficiency (↑), use of non conventional  energy sources (↑) 

Climate CentricScenario

Carbon Tax,  Global Environmental Concerns, Rate of technological improvement,Technology transfer

Early penetration of advanced and clean technologies, Technology rate (↑) 

Electric Heater

BOG 

Cow dung

Charcoal

Coal 

Biomass

Efficient Fuel Wood

Kerosene

LPG 

Non Commercial Fuel wood

Solar Cooker

Flat Screen TelevisionLCD TelevisionTelevisionPlasma TelevisionTelevision High efficiency newtwo wheeler efficient

Refrigerator ( Large )Refrigerator ( Medium)Refrigerators (Small )Refrigerator ( Medium) High Efficiency 

Energy Device Service

Electricity

Washing Machine Front loading Full Auto Washing Machine Top loading Full Auto Washing Machine Top loading Semi Auto  Washing Machine High Efficiency Urban

Residential Appliances Washing

Residential Appliances 

TVV

Residential Appliances Cooling

Electric Stove (existing)MicrowaveHot Plate

Biogas Stove

Residential Appliances Cooking

Cow dung Stove

Charcoal Stove

Coal Stove

Biomass (crop Residue) Stove

Traditional Fuel wood StoveEfficient Fuel wood Stove

Traditional Kerosene StoveEfficient Kerosene Stove

LPG StoveHigh Efficiency LPG stove Urban

Efficient non comm Fuel wood StoveTraditional non comm fuel wood stove

Solar 

CFLIncandescent LampTube lightLED

Kerosene LampResidential Appliances Lighting

Solar Lamp

Air Conditioner SplitAir Conditioner WindowCeiling FanDesert CoolerTable Fan

Residential Appliances 

space cooling

Biomass Based

Residential Appliances 

space Heating

Electric Geyser StorageElectric Geyser Instant

Solar Water HeaterSolar Water Heater Efficient

Gas Geysers

Residential Appliances 

Water Heating

Coal Based

Electricity 

Animal Powered FreightAnimal  

3WFreight Auto New 4 stroke3WFreight Auto existing 2 stroke

Train Goods Electric

Gasoline Freight Service Urban

High Speed Diesel 

Freight Service Rural

Human  Thela Freight

3WFreight Tempo New3WFreight Tempo existingMCV diesel existing FreightHCV TruckMCV diesel New Freight

Heavy Oil 

Train Goods DieselTractor

Energy Device Service

2‐wheeler existing 2 stroke2‐wheeler future 4 stroke3‐wheel Auto existing 2 strokePetrol Car NewPetrol Car existing

3‐wheeler Auto 4 strokeHybrid CarElectric passenger car

2‐wheeler future ElectricElectric CarHCV Electric BusTrain Passenger Electric

Bus CNGMaxi Cab CNGCNG passenger car

Energy Device Service

Gasoline 

Passenger Service UrbanHigh 

Speed Diesel 

Electricity Passenger Service Rural

Human BicycleWalk

Solar  Solar car

3‐wheeler Tempo existing 4 strokeDiesel Car NewDiesel Car existingHCV existing Diesel BusHCV New Diesel Bus

Heavy Oil  MCV diesel existing PassengerMCV diesel New PassengerTrain Passenger Diesel

MCV HybridNatural Gas 

Animal Powered CartAnimal  

Conclusions:The simulations for energy demand and emissions BAU and LCS scenarios are carried based on the technologies andservice demand assumptions using AIM/Enduse Model in this study. Policy paths formulated in these scenarios show thelikely rise in energy consumption, technology shift and CO2 emission in transport sector Bhopal. The study demonstratesthat significant emission mitigation can be achieved in LCS compared to the BAU scenario.

Policy decisions are crucial for reducing the emissions. With increasing concerns on environmental issues and risingpublic awareness the LCS scenario assumes a greater significance. The precise decisions on government policiespromoting efforts for emission reduction and use of cleaner fuels and technologies have a major contribution to make.

LCS Scenario in Transport and Residential Sector for Bhopal.

Dr. Kshama PuntambekarSchool of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal, INDIA

Residential, 53%

Commercial, 4%Industrial, 3%

Public and Semi Public, 14%

transport, 4%

Utilities and Services, 1% Recreation, 

21%

Land Use Distribution  2021

Residential, 58.9

Commercial, 2.1

Industrial, 3.3

Public and Semi Public, 

16.4

transport, 6.9

Utilities and Services, 0.8 Recreation, 

11.5

Land Use Distribution 2005

Bhopal Land use Plan 2005

  SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION in Seven Actions for LCS Scenario 

   ACTIONS  Residential  Commercial  Industry Passenger Transport 

Freight Transport 

1  GREEN GOVERNANCE                

2  HOLISTIC HABITAT                

3  SUSTAINABLE STYLE                

4  CELLULAR CITY FORM                

5  FORM AND FLOW                 

6  NURTURING NATURE                

7  RURAL RICHES                

Sustainable Style – Low Carbon Lifestyle• Introduction to environmental concerns • Use of energy efficient appliances• 3R principle• Change in lifestyle

Form and Flow – Integrating Transport with City Structure• Migration to Sustainable Technology• Connecting Cells• Enhance Public Transport• Traffic Management

Simulation OutputThe simulation is performed for Transport and Residential Sector. It was observed that Bhopal has 60% GHG emission reductionpotential over BaU level in the possible Low Carbon Society Scenario in transport sector.

The simulations show that the GHG emission and energy consumption for transport sector increases in all the scenarios. The GHGemissions in transport sector of Bhopal in 2005 were around 22 thousand ton CO2 which rise by around 3 times to 61 thousand tonCO2 in the target year 2030 under the BaU.

The simulation assessment of Counter measure 2 shows that in the scenario introducing free technology selection and highemission and energy taxes, technology using energy with minimum emissions is selected in which mainly animal and human energy.In reality this is not possible to use such energy completely. Some limit for maximum allowable energy supply needs to be assigned.Counter measure 1 and 3 displays the possible emission and energy demand reduction potential.

Sector Energy/ Fuel Quantity

1.Residential

Electricity (Mkwh) 340.10

LPG (MT) 49,240.00

Fuel wood (MT) 1,275.30

Kerosene (kL) 2,388.00

2.TransportationDiesel (kL) 59,369.80

Petrol (kL) 48,842.50

Sector wise energy use (2007‐08)

S. No Sector CO2 Emissions

1 Residential 36%

2 Transportation 39%

Sector wise emission in urban area (2007‐08)

19th AIM International Workshop     at NIES, Tsukuba, Japan     13‐14 Dec 2013

Population in year 2011 Total Urban Rural

India  1.22 billion    37,71,05,760 83,30,87,662

Madhya Pradesh  7,25,97,565 2,00,59,666 5,25,37,899

Bhopal 23,68,145 19,17,002 4,54,059

Population 

Energy Demand for all ScenariosEmissions for all Scenarios

Energy Demand in years for all Scenarios

Mass Transit system helping to improve the  traffic condition