Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite « Mercator » version of Arpège (v 4) : Toulouse Reading DClim Météo-France WMO Global Bulletin Users Euro-SIP (Multi-Models)
Citation preview
Outline
Météo-France forecasting suiteSSTs Seasonal ForecastsGeneral Circulation ForecastsRainfall Seasonal ForecastsSummary
The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite« Mercator » version of Arpège (v 4) :
Toulouse
Reading
DClim
Météo-France WMO Global Bulletin Users
Euro-SIP (Multi-Models)
The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite
Coupled Model version 3Atmosphere : Arpege 4.4, t63l91 (same levels than ECMWF analysis),Ocean : OPA & Orca grid (31 vertical levels ~10m close to the surface and ~500 m below 3000 m, 2° resolution with 0.5° meridional resolution in the tropics),Coupling : Oasis v2.4,Mercator reanalysis : 1979 – 2007, new assimilation scheme using insitu data and altimetry,Hindcast : over the 1979-2007 period, 11 members, 7 month range run,Operationnal : 41 membres, 7 month range run,Availability : end of the year, beginning of 2008
Outline
Météo-France forecasting suiteSSTs Seasonal ForecastsGeneral Circulation ForecastsRainfall Seasonal ForecastsSummary
SSTs Seasonal Forecast – GlobalMJJ 2010
SST anomaly (ensemble mean)
SSTs Seasonal Forecast – JJA & JAS Global
SST anomaly (ensemble mean)
SSTs Seasonal Forecast
Niño3.4Pacific : Niño boxes
SSTs Seasonal Forecast
Indian Ocean : OOPC boxes
Recap
SSTs Seasonal Forecast
Pacific :
• evolution toward colder condition in the Central and Eastern Pacific
• La Niña event later ?
Indian Ocean :
• Quite warm conditions everywhere (notably in Western part)
• DMI close to neutral
Good stability of the SST forecast over the MJJ to JAS period
Outline
Météo-France forecasting suiteSSTs Seasonal ForecastsGeneral Circulation ForecastsRainfall Seasonal ForecastsSummary
Probabilistic forecasts for MJJ 2010General Circulation
Stream Function 200hPa
Velocity Potential 200hPa
Khi200
JJA
Khi200
JAS
Consistent signal leading to less favourable convective conditions on the half northern part of India and South-East Asia
Monsoon onset delayed (notably in North India) ?
Probabilistic forecasts for MJJ 2010General Circulation
V 850hPa
U 850hPa
Circulation in the low troposphere
• Zonal circulation weakened in the South Hemisphere (Indian Ocean) and strengthenned in the Northern hemisphere (East IO and Pacific)
Meridional circulation strengthenned (West IO)
Outline
Météo-France forecasting suiteSSTs Seasonal ForecastsGeneral Circulation ForecastsRainfall Seasonal ForecastsSummary
Probabilistic forecasts of precipitationMJJ – JJA – JAS 2010
MJJ JJA
JAS
Indian region : Rainfall enhanced on the southern part (GCM discrepancy ?)
South-East Asia : Rainfall enhanced notably in JJA
Probability of extreme rainfall scenariosMJJ – JJA – JAS 2010
MJJ JJA JAS
Below – 1 std
Above + 1 std
Summary
• The forecast for the MJJ 2010 indicates : - an evolution toward cold SST anomalies over the Equatorial tropical Pacific (which should persists during all the summer season) - a relatively warm SST over the Indian Ocean (notably Western part) for all the summer season - Above normal Rainfall in the southern part of the Indian continent and in South-East Asia.Enhanced probability of “extreme” rainfall scenario over these regions - Indian monsoon onset possibly delayed in the Northern part
The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite
Probabilistic forecasts of T2mMJJ – JJA – JAS 2010
MJJ JJA
JAS
Indian region : T2m warmer than normal notably on West cost and Northern part of India
South-East Asia : T2m above normal in MJJ
SST ROC skill : MJJ
tercile categoriesFcst prob. Skill (1987-2001)
Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001)
outer-quintile categories
Lower Tercile Upper Tercile
Rainfall ROC skill : MJJ
tercile categoriesFcst prob. Skill (1987-2001)
Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001)
outer-quintile categories
Lower Tercile Upper Tercile
T2m ROC skill : MJJ
tercile categoriesFcst prob. Skill (1987-2001)
Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001)
outer-quintile categories
Lower Tercile Upper Tercile
