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CompanyName:SalixPharmaceut icalsLtdCompanyTicker:SLXPSector:HealthCare
Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page1of 25
SalixPharmaceuticals(SLXP)EarningsReport:Q32014ConferenceCallTranscriptThefollowingSalixPharmaceuticalsconferencecalltookplaceonNovember6,2014,04:30PMET.Thisisatranscriptofthatearningscall:
CompanyPart icipants
MichaelFreeman;SalixPharmaceuticals;AssociateVPofInvestorRelations&CorporateCommunicationsCarolynLogan;SalixPharmaceuticals;CEO,PresidentandDirectorTimothyCreech;SalixPharmaceuticals;SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFOWilliamForbes;SalixPharmaceuticals;ChiefDevelopmentOfficer,CMOandEVPofResearch&DevelopmentRickScruggs;SalixPharmaceuticals;EVPofBusinessDevelopment
OtherPart icipants
DavidAmsellem;PiperJaffray;AnalystCoreyDavis;CanaccordGenuity;AnalystMarioCorso;MizuhoSecurities;AnalystMichaelFaerm;WellsFargoSecurities;AnalystAndrewFinkelstein;SusquehannaFinancialGroup;AnalystGaryNachman;GoldmanSachsGroup;AnalystJasonGerberry;LeerinkSwann;AnalystGregoryGilbert;DeutscheBank;AnalystShibaniMalhotra;SterneAgee&Leach;AnalystTimLugo;WilliamBlair;AnalystIrinaKofflerRivkind;CantorFitzgerald;AnalystRonakShah;CreditSuisse;AnalystOrenLivnat;JMPSecurities;Analyst
MANAGEMENTDISCUSSIONSECTION
Operator:
Goodday,andwelcometotheSalixPharmaceuticalsThirdQuarterEarningscall.Today'sconferenceisbeingrecorded.
Atthistime,I'dliketoturntheconferenceovertoMichaelFreeman.Pleasegoahead,sir.
MichaelFreeman(AssociateVPofInvestorRelations&CorporateCommunications):
Goodafternoon.ThisisMikeFreeman,AssociateVicePresidentofInvestorRelationsandCorporateCommunicationsforSalixPharmaceuticals.Thankyouforjoiningustoday.
WithmeareCarolynLogan,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer;TimCreech,SeniorVicePresident,FinanceandAdministration,andasweannouncedearlierthisafternoon,ournewactingChiefFinancialOfficer;andBillForbes,ExecutiveVicePresident,MedicalandResearchandDevelopmentandChiefDevelopmentOfficer.AfterremarksfromCarolyn,Timwillbeginthepresentationwithareviewoffinancial
CompanyName:SalixPharmaceut icalsLtdCompanyTicker:SLXPSector:HealthCare
Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page2of 25
resultsforthethirdquarterof2014.CarolynandBillwillthenreviewoperationsandkeyhighlightsforthequarter,andthenwewillopenupthecallforappropriatequestions.
BeforeIturnthecallovertoCarolyn,letmeremindyouthatvariousremarksthatmanagementmightmakeduringthisconferencecallaboutfutureexpectations,plans,andprospectsfortheCompanyconstituteforward-lookingstatementsforpurposesofSafeHarborprovisionsunderthePrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995.Actualresultsmightdiffermateriallyfromthoseindicatedbytheseforward-lookingstatements,asaresultofvariousimportantfactors,includingthosediscussedinourpressreleasesandSECfilings,includingourform10-Kfor2013andform10-Qforthethirdquarterof2014.Specifically,informationinthisconferencecallrelatedtoprojections,developmentplans,andotherforward-lookingstatementsissubjecttothisSafeHarbor.
Additionally,today,wewill,asusual,usebothGAAPandnon-GAAPmeasures.Webelievethesenon-GAAPmeasuresmightprovideinvestorsadditionalrelevantinformation,inpartforpurposesofhistoricalcomparison.Inaddition,weusethesenon-GAAPmeasurestoanalyzeourperformanceinmoredetailandwithbetterhistoricalcompatibility.
However,youshouldbeawarethatnon-GAAPmeasuresarenotsuperiortonorasubstituteforthecomparableGAAPmeasures.Andthesenon-GAAPmeasuresmightnotbecomparabletosimilarlynamedmeasuresdisclosedbyothercompanies.
PleasenotethatEBITDAisearningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,stock-basedcompensationexpense,andamortization,thenon-cashchangeinacquisition-relatedcontingentconsideration,one-timelicenseandsales-basedmilestonepayments,thecostofgoodsstepupforSantarusproducts,andexcludingtransactioncostsrelatedtoSantarusacquisitionandtheterminatedmergerwithCosmoTechnologiesLimited.Non-GAAPnetincomeiscomprisedofEBITDAadjustedforcashinterestexpenseandinterestincomeandaprovisionforincometaxes,basedonnon-GAAPincomebeforetax.Non-GAAPEPS,ornon-GAAPincomepersharefullydiluted,isnon-GAAPnetincomedividedbyoutstandingsharesonadilutedbasis.
Withthat,letmeturnthecallovertoCarolynLogan.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Thankyou,Mike.
IwanttotakethisopportunitytointroduceTimothyCreech,ouractingChiefFinancialOfficer.TimjoinedtheCompanyin2007andhasmostrecentlybeenservingastheCompany'sSeniorVicePresident,FinanceandAdministrativeServices.
Hehasover30yearsofaccountingandfinancialexperience,includingapproximately10yearsatKPMG.SowelookforwardtoworkingwithTiminhisnewroleasactingChiefFinancialOfficer.
Inourearningspressreleaseissuedearlierthisafternoon,weprovideddisclosureregardingourestimateofthewholesalerinventorylevelsofourmajorproductsatSeptember30.TheauditcommitteeofourBoardofDirectors,whichiscomprisedsolelyofindependentdirectors,hasretainedoutsidecounselandisconductingareviewofissuesrelatedtomanagement'spriorcharacterizationsofwholesalerinventorylevels.
ThereviewwillbeconductedbyauditcommitteeinathoroughmannerandwillbeindependentofCompanymanagement.Management'sexpectation,however,isthattheauditcommitteewilladvisemanagementwhenthereviewiscomplete.AndtheCompanyexpectstomakeanappropriateannouncementatthattime.
Wethinkit'simportanttomakeonethingveryclear.ManagementbelievesthattheCompany'saccountingwithrespecttosalestowholesalershas,atalltimes,beenappropriate.Moreover,ourauditor,Ernst&
CompanyName:SalixPharmaceut icalsLtdCompanyTicker:SLXPSector:HealthCare
Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page3of 25
Young,hasconducteditsquarterlyreviewsforeachofthethreequartersof2014.AndEMYhasalsoinformedusthatitstandsbyitsunqualifiedopiniononour2013auditedfinancialstatements.
Wealsoannouncedinourearningspressreleasethatwearecurrentlynegotiatingwithourprincipalwholesalerstoenterintodistributionservicesagreements,sometimesreferredtoasDSAs,foreachofourproducts.Webelievetheseagreementswillimproveourvisibilityintowholesalerinventorylevelsandourinventorymanagementandplanning.Webelievetheywillprovidevaluableinventoryandsalesdataandensureproperservicelevelstopharmaciesandotherindirectcustomersandenableustobetterforecastrevenueandexpenses.
Inaddition,webelieveenteringintodistributionserviceagreementswillenhanceourprofitabilityoverthelongterm,becauseservicefeesundertheagreementsareexpectedtobelessintheaggregatethantheaggregatediscountsgiventowholesalersinrecentperiods.Wealsoexpectthattheseagreements,whenfinalized,willenableustoachieveourobjectiveofpredictablyanddeliberatelyreducingwholesaleinventorylevelsofXIFAXAN550,APRISO,andUceristoapproximatelythreemonthsatorbeforetheendof2016,dependingonfuturedemandfortheseproducts.
Webelievethisisanappropriatelevelofinventoryforourkeyproductsunderadistributionservicesagreementstructure,giventheprescriptiongrowthratesofourproductsandtheexpectedservicelevelsthatwillberequiredofthewholesalersundertheagreement.Weexpectthesedistributionservicesagreementstobefinalizedandbecomeeffectiveinthefirstquarterof2015.
Finally,weexpectthatwewillworkwithourwholesalerstoreducetheirinventorylevelsofGlumetzaduring2015.OurexpectationisthatwholesaleinventorylevelsofGlumetzawillfalltoapproximatelyonemonthorless,asagenericcompetitortoGlumetzaentersthemarketinearly2016.
Withthat,letmeturnthecallovernowtoTimtodiscussourfinancialresults.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Thankyou,Carolyn.
IwillstartwiththefinancialresultsforthethirdquarterendedSeptember30th,2014.Asareminder,prior-periodresultsdonotreflecttheSantarusacquisition.
Totalnetproductrevenuewas$354.7millionforthethirdquarterof2014,comparedto$238.2millionforthethirdquarterof2013.Ofcourse,the2014numbersincludetheSantarusacquisition.Totalnetproductrevenueforthethirdquarterwaslowerthanexpected,primarilybecauseprescriptiongrowthforsomeofourkeyproducts,whilestrong,waslessthananticipated.
FollowingtheacquisitionofSantarus,weexperiencedahigher-than-anticipatedrateofturnoveroftheSantarusInventivesalesforces,whichrequiredhiringandtrainingnewsalesrepresentatives.Inaddition,wholesalerdiscountswerehigherthanbudgeted.Finally,revenueforthequarterwasimpactedbyhigherthanexpectedrebatesattributabletoproductsacquiredfromSantarus.
Grossmargin--excludingamortizationofproductrightsandintangibleassets,a$2.6millionstepupinthevalueofSantarusinventoryunderfairvalueaccountinginconnectionwiththeacquisition,and$17.5millioninsales-basedmilestones--was81.3%forquarterof2014,comparedto82%forthethirdquarterof2013.Thelowergrowthmargininthethirdquarterof2014wasdueprimarilytotheinclusionofsalesofGlumetza,whichcarrylowergrossmarginsthanotherproducts.Weexpectgrossmarginofapproximately79%forthefullyear.
Researchanddevelopmentexpenseswere$50.8millionforthirdquarterof2014,comparedto$38.2millionforthesameperiodlastyear.Asapercentageoftotalnetproductrevenues,R&Dexpensesdeclinedto
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Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
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14.3%forthethirdquarterof2014,from16%forthesameperiodayearagoasapercentageofrevenue.
Includingapproximately$45.5millionofSantarus-relatedtransactionandintegrationcostsselling,general,andadministrativeexpenseswere$120.1millionforthirdquarterof2014,comparedto$67.2millionforthesameperiodlastyear.Theincreasewasmainlyduetohigherpersonnelcosts,asaresultofthedoublingofoursalesforceinconnectionwiththeSantarusacquisition.Asapercentageoftotalnetproductrevenues,SG&Aexpenseincreasedto33.9%forthethirdquarterof2014,from28.2%inthethirdquarterof2013.
EBITDAforthethirdquarterof2014was$161.2million,comparedtoourguidanceof$155millionand$98.6millioninthesameperiodlastyear.Forthethirdquarter2014,non-GAAPnetincomewas$122.2million,whichwasin-linewithourguidance.
Asaresultoftheriseinourstockpricebetweentheannouncementofoursecond-quarterresultsandthecloseofthethirdquarter,thefullydilutedsharecountincreasedto79.9millionshares,ascomparedtoguidanceof79millionshares.Consequently,adjustedEPSforthethirdquarterwas$1.53,comparedto$0.89perdilutedshareforthesameperiodayearago.GAAPnetlossforthethirdquarterof2013was$88.6million,or$1.39perdilutedshare,comparedtoGAAPnetincomeof$47.3million,or$0.71perdilutedshareforthirdquarterof2013.
Turningtothebalancesheet,cashandcashequivalentswere$422.6millionatSeptember30,2014.Let'sreviewouroutlookforthefourthquarterandthefullyearof2014.
Weexpecttotalnetproductrevenueforfourthquarterof2014tobeapproximately$325million.EBITDA,excludingtransactionandintegrationexpensesassociatedwithacquisitionofSantarusandtheterminatedmergerwithCosmoTechnology,isanticipatedtobeapproximately$120million.Wealsoexpectnon-GAAPnetincometobeapproximately$92million,or$1.16perdilutedshare,whichassumesacashincometaxrateofapproximately1%andafullydilutedsharecountof79millionshares.
Fortheremainderof2014,weexpectprescriptiontrendsforourkeyproductstocontinuetodemonstratehealthygrowth,astheproductivityofourdigestivedisease,speciality,andexpandedgastroenterologysalesforcescontinuetoramp.Accountingfordrawdownandinventory,webelieveournettotalproductrevenueforthefullyearshouldbeapproximately$1.4billion.
Forthefullyear,wealsoexpectEBITDAofapproximately$573million,excludingtransactionandintegrationexpensesassociatedwiththeacquisitionofSantarusandterminatedmergerwithCosmoTechnologies.Wealsoexpectnetincomeonanon-GAAPbasisfor2014tobeapproximately$400million.Ournon-GAAPEPSforthefullyearisexpectedtobeapproximately$5.20perdilutedshare,asweassumeafullydilutedsharecountof77millionshares.
Ourfullyearguidanceassumesacashincometaxrateofapproximately13%.Thecurrentlyannualizedrunrate,basedondollarizingourSeptember2014prescriptiondata,areapproximately$750millionforXIFAXAN,$144millionforUceris,$154millionforAPRISO,$255millionforGlumetza,$109millionforZegerid,$86millionMoviPrepandOsmoPrep,and$49millionforRelistor,and$78millionforSalix'sotherproducts.
LetmenowturnthecallbacktoCarolyn.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Whileourtop-lineresultsforthethirdquarterweresofterthanweanticipatedforreasonsthatTimdescribedearlier,wetakecomfortinthefactthatprescriptiondemandforourkeyproductsremainedrobustinthequarter,withXIFAXAN550,APRISO,Relistor,andUcerisachievingstrongyearoveryeargrowthof23%,15%,24%,and76%respectively.Thesenumbersmakeclearthatthehealthofourbusinessremainsingreatshape,andthatthetrajectoryofprescriptiongrowthforourmajorproductscontinuestobestrong,which
CompanyName:SalixPharmaceut icalsLtdCompanyTicker:SLXPSector:HealthCare
Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page5of 25
shouldhelpreducetheimpactonfuturenetproductrevenuescausedbyworkingdownwholesalerinventorylevels.
Newproductapprovalsandlauncheswillhelptofurthermitigatethiseffect.Withinan84-dayperiodspanningmid-JulytoearlyOctober,threenewproducts,Ruconest,Relistorsubcutaneousinjectionforchronicnon-cancerpain,andUcerisrectalfoamweregrantedmarketingapprovalbytheFDA.
ThislevelofsuccessisnoteworthyforanypharmaceuticalCompanyandprovidesadditionalevidenceofSalix'sexceptionaltrackrecordofin-licensing,developing,andbringingtomarketimportantdrugsforpatientswhoneedthem.Ourexpectationisthatthesenewproductswillimproveourcompetitivepositionandexpandourmarketopportunities.
Goingforward,weexpectcontinuedstrongprescriptiongrowthdrivenbytherecentlycompletedexpansionofoursalesforcewithanadditional274representatives.Wenowhave524specialityrepresentativescallingontargetedgastroenterologists,hepatologists,primarycarephysicians,otherspecialties,andinstitutionalandgovernmentcustomers.WeanticipatethatthetherapeuticadvantagesRuconest,Relistorsubcutaneousinjection,andUcerisrectalfoam,togetherwiththeCompany'sstrongcorporatebrandequityandourestablishedpresenceinprescribers'offices,shouldfacilitatephysiciantrialandusageofthesenewproductofferings.
LetmenowaskWilliamForbes,whoisherewithus,toprovideanupdateonsomeofourkeyproductandpipelinedevelopments.
WilliamForbes (ChiefDevelopmentOfficer,CMOandEVPofResearch&Development):
Thankyou,Carolyn.Goodafternoon,everyone.
LetmebeginwiththeXIFAXANdevelopmentactivitiesandspecifically,withIBS.TheFDAhasassignedFebruary28,2015,astheuserfeegoaldateforcompletionofitsreviewoftheCompany'sre-submissionofitssupplementalnewdrugapplicationforXIFAXAN550-milligramtabletsfortheproposedindicationofthetreatmentofirritablebowelsyndromewithdiarrhea,orIBSD.
Weareoftenaskedifwebelievethiscompletere-submissionmightresultinanadvisorycommittee.Atthistime,therehasbeennomentionineitherthewrittencorrespondencereceivedfromthedivisionorphonediscussionswiththedivisionaboutthepossibilityofapublicadvisorycommitteemeeting.
Inregardstoourchronicliverdiseaseprogram,theCompanycontinuedpatientenrollmentforitsPhase2dose-rangingstudyforRifaximinSSD,whichisbeinginvestigatedforthepreventionofcomplicationsoflivercirrhosisinsubjectswithearlydecompensatedliverdisease.Currently,theenrollmentphaseisgoingverywell,andwehopetomeettheoriginalenrollmentobjectivewithinthenearfuture.However,wedoanticipateleavingenrollmentopenuntiltheendof2014,aspreviouslydescribed,inordertoallowforafewadditionalpatientstoenterintothatPhase2study.
InregardstoourinflammatoryboweldiseaseorCrohn'sprogram,theCompanycontinuedpatientenrollmentforthetwoPhase3studiesforRifaximindelayedrelease,whichisbeinginvestigatedfortreatmentofactive,moderateCrohn'sdisease.These52-weekstudieswillassessefficacyandsafetyofRifaximindelayedreleaseforinductionofclinicalremission,withendoscopicresponseat16weeksfollowedbyclinicalandendoscopicremissionat52weeks.
TurningourattentiontotheoralRelistorprogram.FollowinginteractionswiththeFDA,theCompanyexpectstofiletheoralRelistorNDAbytheendofthesecondquarterof2015.Duringtheseinteractions,weemphasizedthattheCompanyisproposingchangeinformulationanddose,fromthecurrentlyapprovedandmarketedsubcutaneousformulation,totheproposedoralformulationinpatientssufferingfromopioid-
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Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
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inducedconstipationwithchronic,non-cancerpain.
TheFDAhasindicatedthatitwillconsider,duringitsreviewoftheNDA,therobustnessoftheefficacydatafororalRelistorinPhase3testingaswellasitstolerabilitycomparedtothatoftherecentlyapprovedsubcutaneousRelistorinthechronicpainsetting.Priortofiling,theCompanyisplanningonconductingsomeveryspecificpre-clinicalandpharmacokineticstudiesdesignedtoprovideclarityinregardtopotentialdrug-druginteractionsinspecialpopulationdosing,whichwasintended--orwillbeintended--tobeincludedinfinalproductlabelingfororalRelistor.
AsCarolynpreviouslymentioned,we'vealsorecentlyhadthreeproductsapprovedbytheFDA.OnSeptember29,2014,theFDAapprovedRelistorsubcutaneousinjectionfortreatmentofopioid-inducedconstipationinpatientstakingopioidsforchronic,non-cancerpain.
OnJuly16,2014,theFDAapprovedRuconestforthetreatmentofacuteangioedemaattacksinadultsandadolescentpatientswithhereditaryangioedema,orHAE.AndonOctober7,2014,theFDAapprovedUcerisrectalfoamfortheinductionofremissioninpatientswithactivemildtomoderatedistalulcerativecolitisextendingupto40centimetersfromtheanalverge.
Withthat,letmeturnthisbackovertoCarolyn.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Thanks,Bill.
IwouldalsoliketomentionthatthreeadditionalpatentsforRifaximinwerealsoissuedduringOctober.Salixnowhas12OrangeBooklistedpatentswithprotectionthroughOctober2029forXIFAXAN550-milligramand11OrangeBooklistedpatentswithprotectionthroughJuly2029forXIFAXAN200-milligram.Additionally,Salixhas15OrangeBookeligiblepatentsfortheIBSDindicationcurrentlyunderreview.
Duringthequarter,wealsosecuredexclusiverightsundercertainpatentapplicationsintheRifaximinComplexespatentfamily,controlledbyCipla.TheserightsprovideadditionalprotectionsrelatedtoourSSDRifaximinformulation.
Lookingahead,weremainfocusedoncapitalizingonourdiversifiedproductbaseandpromisingpipelineofnewproductstorealizeevengreatervaluefromourbusiness.Coupledwithourexperienceandresults-drivenresearchanddevelopmentorganizationandprovenbusinessdevelopmentcapabilities,thiscreatesaformidablebaseforcontinuedfuturesuccess.
ThelaunchofRelistorsubcutaneousinjectionforchronic,non-cancerpain,Ruconest,andUcerisrectalfoamwillprovideadditionalproductsalesasthesenewdrugsareintroducedoverthenextthreemonths.ThepotentialavailabilityofXIFAXAN550-milligramforIBSDinthefirstquarterof2015willjustfurtherthismomentum.WealsocontinueoureffortstocompletedevelopmentandsecuremarketingapprovalforRelistororalforchronic,non-cancerpain,aswellasRifaximinSSDforpreventionoflivercirrhosisandRifaximindelayedreleaseforCrohn'sdisease.
Aswereflectonthelong-termopportunitiesforourproducts,ourconvictionregardingtheirmarketpotentialisevengreaterthanitwaswhenwediscussedthisatourInvestorDayinJuly.Asaresult,webelieveourdiversifiedportfolioofcurrent,near-term,andmid-termopportunitiescreatesastrongplatformforfuturegrowth.
BeforewemovetoQ&A,IwanttosaythatIunderstandthatsomeofyoumayhavequestionsabouttheauditcommitteereview.Butpleaseunderstandthattheintegrityoftheauditcommittee'sprocessisimportant,anduntilthatprocessiscomplete,we'renotgoingtobeabletoanswerquestionsabouttherevieworitssubjectmatter.
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Industry:DrugsEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
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Andwiththat,IamgoingtoturnitbackovertoMikebeforewegotoQ&A.
MichaelFreeman(AssociateVPofInvestorRelations&CorporateCommunications):
ThankyouCarolyn,Tim,andBill.Sincewehavesomanyanalystsonthecalltoday,asacourtesy,weaskthatyoulimityourselftoonequestionwithonefollowup.Ifyouhaveadditionalquestions,youarewelcometogetbackinthequeue.
Operator,pleaseopenthelinesforquestions.Thankyou.
QUESTIONS&ANSWERS
Operator:
(OperatorInstructions)
We'lltakeourfirstquestionfromDavidAmsellemwithPiperJaffray.
DavidAmsellem(Analyst-PiperJaffray):
Soyou'vesaidhistoricallythattherewere10to12weeksofXIFAXANinventoryonhand.Now,we'rebeingtoldninemonthsonhand.Howdoyousquarethat?
AndIguess,theotherwayofaskingthatis,givenyourcommentsoninventoryonthelastcoupleofcalls,howcanwenowsaythatthosecommentswerenotmisleading?Thanks.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
David,unfortunately,wereallycan'tcommentonthat,asImentionedearlier.Theauditcommitteehasretainedoutsidecounsel,andtheyareconductingareviewofthis.Andtopreservetheintegrityofthatprocess,it'sjustnotappropriateformetocomment.
However,Idowanttosay--andIthinkIsaiditinthescript--butmanagementbelievesthattheCompany'saccountinginrelationtosalestowholesalershasbeenappropriate.Andthatanyquestionsrelatedtothathaveallbeenvetted.
Ourauditor,Ernst&Young,hasconductedquarterlyreviewsforeachofthethreequarters.They'vealsoinformedusthattheystandbytheirunqualifiedopinioninrespecttotheir2013auditedfinancialstatements.Sowedonotthinkthereareanyissuesthere.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Letmetellyouwhywedohaveconfidenceinthenumberswe'vegivenyoutoday.Aswedisclosed,webegantheprocessofnegotiatingDSAs.Andwehavegottensomeinventorydatafromourmajorwholesalersandcomparedthattoourestimate,whichwasbasedontotalinventoryestimatesbasedoninternalshipments.Andthosenumbersareconsistentwiththat--numberswereceivedfromthewholesalers.
DavidAmsellem(Analyst-PiperJaffray):
Okay.Iguessthecommentis,Idon'tknowhowyousquare10to12weeks--waswhatyousaidhistorically--versuswhatwe'rebeingtoldtodayof9months.
ButIguessI' lljustjumpbackinthequeue.Thanks.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromCoreyDaviswithCanaccord.
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CoreyDavis (Analyst-CanaccordGenuity):
Thanks.Thisquestionmightbealittleoff-topic,giveneverythingthat'shappened,butIwantedtoaskaboutTARGET3,forBill.IfIremembercorrectly,backinJuly,whenyoupresentedattheAnalystDay,yousaidandpresentedthatyouhadeverythingexceptwhatyoureferredtoasthe18-weekdata.
Iwasn'tatACG,butIlookedatthepresentation.Anditwasn'tclearwhetherornotitwasactuallypresentedthere.IthinkIrecallyousayingthatwasakeysecondaryendpointforthetrial.Canyouputitintocontextforus--howimportantthat18weekendpointdataisforultimateapprovalofXIFAXAN,andif,indeed,itdidhaveapositiveoutcome?
WilliamForbes (ChiefDevelopmentOfficer,CMOandEVPofResearch&Development):
Thanks,Corey.
Infact,wedidactuallypresentthatdataatACG.Andyes,itispositive.Ithinkifyouweretolookatthatparticulardata--andoneofthethingsthatwefeltwasimportantaboutitisthefactthat,forthosepatientsiftheyreceivedascheduledre-treatmentat12-weeks,thattheywouldcontinuetooutperformtheplacebopatientsthroughthe18weeks.
Andofcourse,itwasthetwoweeksoftreatment.Andthen,whentheyfollowedupthatdouble-blindperiod,whichwasafour-weekprimaryevaluationperiodfollowedbysixweeks.Thenthescheduledre-treatmentanddoubleblind.Andthatwastwoweeksoftreatmentplusfourweeksoffollow-up,there.Sothatwasatotalof18.
Ithinkinmanyrespects,ifyoulookatthedataandresponserates,coupledwiththefactthat36%ofthepatientsfromopenlabelthatrespondedneverrelapsed,thetotalityofthedatashowsthatthedurableresponsethatweseewithRifaximinisquiteimpressive.Evenwhenyoucompareitagainstotherdataouttherefrompotentialcompetitors,suchasFuriaxproduct--ifyoutakealookatwhattheirresponseratesareusingsameendpointaswe'reusinginTARGET3.Ifyoutakealookatoverallresponseandourabilitytomaintainthatresponseforthat18weekperiod,Ithink,isveryimpressive.
Ithinkitisimportant.Wealwaysfeltlikeitwas.That'swhywemadeitakeysecondaryendpoint.Hopefullytheagencywillallowforus--ifwegettothispoint--toputitinourlabel.
CoreyDavis (Analyst-CanaccordGenuity):
Okay.Second,ifIcan--I'mnotsureexactlywhattoaskaboutinventories.Butthishasalwaysbeensomethingyouguyshavestruggledwithovertheyears.
Itisjustinventory,butmyquestionis,ifyou'venowclearlyidentifiedit,whynotjustgetitalloutofthewayrightupfront?IfIreadcorrectly,that--it'sgoingtotaketotheendof2016togetinventoriesbackdowntonormal.Whynotjusttakeitallatonce?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Well,we'renotsurethatwouldbethebestthingforthewholesalersorthecustomers.Andwewantedtodoitinapredictable,gradual,reliableway.Andsowe'rehopingtonegotiatetheseDSAsalongthoselines.
Also,Imean,we'vegivenourselvestwofullyears.Andthattimeframeisbasedoncurrentprescriptiondemand.
Andofcourse,ourprescriptionshavebeengrowingverynicely.AndifwearegrantedtheIBSDapproval,aswe'relookingforwardtoinfirstquarternextyear,thenthat--allofthatwillhelptoacceleratethat.Sothat'sjust,wethink,thebestplantodoitandtodealwithit.
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CoreyDavis (Analyst-CanaccordGenuity):
Okay.SoevenifyouweretosignIMAstomorrow,it'snotasifinventorieswouldinstantlygototherestoftheindustryattwotofourweeks.It'syourplan,aspartofIMAagreements,tograduallyworkitdownoverthenexttwoyears.Isthatcorrect?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Yes.AndweactuallyhaveourHeadofBusinessDevelopmentandTrade,ourExecutiveVPRickScruggs,heretoday.Rick,I'mgoingtoletyouanswerthat.
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
Yes.Sowewillhopefullyincludethoseagreementsandputthoseinplaceinthefirstquarter.Andthenwe'lldothemechanicstomakethatdrawdownappropriateoverthenexttwoyears.Itmayhappensooner,though.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Andjusttobeclear,we'recomfortablewithourinventorylevelswheretheyare,now,aswesaidinthepressrelease.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Yes.Imean,we'refortunateinthatourproductsdomoveveryquickly.Wehavegoodmovement,goodgrowth.
Andwehaveverylongdating.Ithinktheminimumonanyofthesekeyproductsis36months,andXIFAXANnowhas5yearsofdatingonit.
ButthereasonwewanttomovetotheseDSAsisjusttoimprovevisibilityandpredictabilitybecause,asyouknow,we'vemissedourguidancenowforacoupleofquarters,andwedon'tlikedoingthat.Sowewanttobeabletohavemorepredictabilityandmorecertainty,justsowecanbetterplanandguideourshareholders,ouranalysts,everybody.
CoreyDavis (Analyst-CanaccordGenuity):
Okay.Thankyou.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromMarioCorsowithMizuhoUSA.
Mario Corso (Analyst-MizuhoSecurities):
Goodevening.Thanksfortakingmyquestions.
SoIguessIdon'tfullyunderstand,whenyousaythatyoubelievetheaccountingisappropriateontheinventories.Youmeanwheretheyarenow?Ordoyoumeanappropriateaccounting,intermsofhowtheygotthere?Imean,Ican'timagineninemonthsonXIFAXANwasplanned.
Andthenwithyourguidanceforyouryear--revenue$1.6billiondownto$1.4billion--isthatcomingmoreso,I[wouldsay,fromXIFAXANthananyotherareasyouhaveguided]?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Mario,youwerebreakingup,rightthereattheveryend.
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Timmayhavesomethingmoretosayabouttheaccounting.Butasfarasmissingourguidance,alotofthatisrelatedto--ifyouremember,Ithinkwehavetalkedaboutthisonearliercalls.WeclosedtheSantarusdealonJanuary2,andwemovedalotoftheSantarusandInventivesalesreps,whichwerepartofSantarus,overandintegratedthemintoourvarioussalesforces.
Theonethingintheintegrationthatsurpriseduswasthehighturnoverratewiththeserepresentatives.WiththeSantarusrepresentatives,itwasover40%.AndwiththeInventiverepresentatives,Ithinkitwasinthe35%range.
SowespentJanuary,February,Marchgettingallofthosepeopletrainedonourproductsandourpeopletrainedontheirproducts,basedonwhichsalesforcestheyweregoinginto.Wedidthenationalsalesmeeting,andwewerereadytogo,andwehadforecastedprescriptionstoramp,fromthatpointforward.
Butwhenthosepeoplestarted,alotofthem,leaving--andonthepeoplewehired,ourselves,externally,theturnoverratewasaround20%.WithourlegacySalixpeople,itwasinthe,Ithink,8%or9%level.Butasthosevacanciesoccurred,mostlydrivenbySantarusrepsandInventivereps,thenwehadtohire,retrain,andgeteverybodyoutthereagain.
Soonaverage,ittakesaboutfivecallsonaphysiciantochangeaprescribinghabit.Soyouhaveearlyadopters,midadopters,lateadopters,aseverybodyknows.Butitjusteatsuptime.
Sowehadthebiggestmonthwe'vehadonmanyofourproductsinSeptember.Anditlooksasthough--wedon'thavemonthlydataforOctober,yet--butitlooksasthough,whenwegetallthedatainforOctober,thatOctoberisgoingtobeevenbiggerthanSeptember.
Soitlookslikeit'sallcomingtogether.It'sjusthappeningthreeorfourmonthslaterthanwehadoriginallyanticipated.Andthenyouknow,whenpeopleareplanningonleavingaCompany,they'renotalwaysascommittedorasfocusedorworkingashardforthatmonthorsothatthey'relookingforajobandinterviewing,thatyouwouldhopetheyare.
Soourprescriptiongrowthisgreat,butweexpectedittobegreatsooner.Andbythispointintheyear,youknow,ifyou'relaterstartingyourramp,thentherampnevergetsto,bytheendoftheyear,whereyouhadforecasteditwouldget.Ifallofthatmakessense.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Andonyouraccountingquestion,webelievethatouraccountinginrelationtosalestowholesalershasbeenappropriate.Anyquestionsrelatingtowholesaleinventorylevelsrelatesolelytodisclosure.
Andaswepreviouslysaid,ourauditor,Ernst&Young,hasconducteditsreviewsofthethreequartersof2014.Andthey'vealsoinformedustheystandbehindtheirunqualifiedopiniononour2013financialstatements.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Yes.We'vealwayshadalotofinventoryinthechannel.Someofitisatourthird-partylogisticsplace.Someofitwasinwholesalers.
Aswepullitdowninwholesalers,wewillincreaseitatourthird-partylogisticspartnerbecausewedohavelongdating,wehavefast-movingprescriptionsforourmajorproducts,andthesearetheonesthatareaffectedbythehigherlevels.Andwearenotdualsourcedineverycomponentalongthewayofgettingthefinishedproducttomarket.
Sowhilepeoplecouldsay,wellyoudon'tneedthatmuchinventory,iftherewasadisruptionforaproductlike
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XIFAXAN,wejustcan'triskbeingoutofstockorbeingoutofproductforthreeorfourmonthsorwhateveritcouldbe.Andtogetanewfacilityqualified,itlooksasthoughabout18monthsisaboutasfastasthatcanhappen.
Sowedon'thaveanyofourownmanufacturingfacilities.Andeventhoughwe'veneverhadaglitch,wemanagecontractmanufacturersveryclosely.Wemakesurethatthey'reverygoodfacilities.
Atanygiventime,anybodycanhaveaproblem,andwe'vecertainlyseenthatinthisindustryonseveraloccasions.Sowejustdon'twanttoputourselvesinthatposition.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromMichaelFaermwithWellsFargo.
MichaelFaerm(Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):
Hi.Thanksfortakingthequestion.
Justaquestionontheinventory.Thismaybesimplistic,butifyourpastrevenuesareverifiedascorrectandyourcurrentrevenuesandyourcurrentinventoriesasoftoday'spressreleasearecorrect,thenIguesstheconclusionhastobethatthepastinventorylevelsthatyou'vetalkedaboutinthepast--forexample,XIFAXANattwoandahalfmonths--wereincorrect.AmIthinkingaboutthattherightway?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Imean,IthinkIhavetojustreferyoubackto,Ican'treallycommentonanythingthattheauditcommitteeisreviewing.That'sjustnotappropriateformedothat.SoIdon'tknowwhatelsetotellyou,exceptthat.
MichaelFaerm(Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):
Okay.Thenjustonefollowupaboutyourviewsastowhattheoptimalinventorylevelshouldbe,goingforward.Inthepast,you'vetalkedaboutlastquartergettingtowardseightweeksasanoptimallevel.
Now,itsoundslikeyouaretalkingaboutninemonthsforXIFAXANasbeingrightlevel.AndthreemonthsforXIFAXANbeingtherightlevel,inthefuture.Maybeyoucouldhelpmeunderstandthedifferingviewsofwhattherightlevelis.
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
ThisisRickScruggs.I' lltakethatanswer.
Webelievethattheoptimallevelforourcurrentproductsthathavegreatprescriptiongrowthisaboutthreemonths.Andthat'swhatwe'regoingtogoto.Wedon'thave--wedidn'tsayninemonths.Ithinkyoumadeareferencetoninemonthsinyourstatement.
We'renotlookingforninemonthsofinventory.Ithinkthat'swhat'sinpressreleasesrightnow.Butwewillbelookingatdoingthesedistributionservicesagreementsandachievingthree-monthinventorylevelwithourkeyproducts.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.Theninemonths,aswesaidbefore,we'recomfortablewiththoselevelsnowwithouttheDSA.ThreemonthsisreallyinthecontextoftheDSAandallthefactorsyounegotiatewithintheDSA.
MichaelFaerm(Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):
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Great.Thankyou.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromAndrewFinkelsteinwithSusquehanna.
AndrewFinkelstein(Analyst-SusquehannaFinancialGroup):
Thanksverymuchfortakingthequestion.
MaybeIcanaskjustintermsof--it'sverycomplex,recognizingrevenueeachquarterwithalltheprovisionsthatareneededontheseproducts.Andyoudomentioninthereleasethatthe--anadvantageofsigningtheDSAswouldbe--makeiteasiertoallocatediscountsbetweenperiods.
Canyoujustcommentonhowyoudeterminethatthetimingofpastrevenuerecognitioniscorrect?Andmaybespecifically,asyouestimatethecurrentrunratesfortheseproducts,areyouusingthesamepriceperscriptasyouhadinthepast?Orwereanyadjustmentsneeded,intermsofhowyouestimatenetpriceperprescription,goingforward?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Toyourlastquestion,thenetprice--theserunratesarejustpoint-in-timeestimate.Sothey'rebasedononemonthofprescriptionsannualized,basedonourcurrentnetpriceforeachproduct.
Andthenfor--Iguess,onyourlastquestion--Imean,yourfirstquestion,whichwasontheaccountingis,aswesaid,webelieveouraccountingisappropriate.AndErnst&Younghasgivenusour--standbytheirunqualifiedopinion.
AndrewFinkelstein(Analyst-SusquehannaFinancialGroup):
IfIcouldaskafollow-up.Justasyougothroughthisprocesswiththewholesalers--andyouseemprettyconfidentthattheagreementswillbeinplacebythebeginningoftheyear,whichwouldsuggestyou'reprettyfaralongwiththem--arethereanyimplicationsforthetimingand/ormagnitudeofpriceincreasesinyourproducts,relativetohistory?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Well,onpriceincreases,there'snothingthatwouldaffectourabilitydothat.Sowedon'tannouncetimingonthemforcompetitivereasons.Butwewouldexpecttocontinuetohavepriceincreasesonourproducts.
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
Yes.AndthenyourquestionaroundgettingtheseDSAsinplace--wefeelextremelyconfidentwe'llgettheseinplaceinfirstquarterof2015.We'realreadydowntheroadofworkingwithourkeywholesalersontheseagreements.
AndrewFinkelstein(Analyst-SusquehannaFinancialGroup):
Thanksverymuch.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromGaryNachmanwithGoldmanSachs.
GaryNachman(Analyst-GoldmanSachsGroup):
Hi.Carolyn,howshouldweevenbegintothinkaboutsalesrunratesforthenextcoupleofyears?We're
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obviouslyverymuchinthedarkhere.
Socouldyoujusthelpusalittlebit,maybeusing4Qasastartingpoint?Imean,we'regoingtobestrugglingtryingtoforecastnow,goingforward.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Well,therunrates,asTimexplained--andwe'llcontinuetogivethose--buttherunratesare--therunratesthatareinthematerialstodayarebasedontheprescriptionsfromSeptemberdata,thelastmonthofthethirdquarter.
GaryNachman(Analyst-GoldmanSachsGroup):
No,Iunderstandthat.ButImean,asfaras--asyou'reworkingdowninventorylevelsoverthenextcoupleofyears,we'regoingtohavetomakethoseadjustments.Sohowdoweevenbegindothat?
Atwhatpointwillyoubeabletogiveus,Iguess,guidance,atleast,for2015?HowlongwillittakeafteryousignDSAs?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Weplantogiveguidancefor2015onouryear-endearningscall,asisourpastpractice.Havingsaidthat,we'veattemptedtogivesomedatatoallowyou--tohelpinyourmodeling.Wegavetheestimateofourwholesaleinventoryforourkeyproducts,asofSeptember30,andourdesiredlevel,asofthreemonthsattheend[2016].
Andthenobviously,Glumetzaisauniquecase,whereitwillhavegenericcompetitorinearly2016.Soweexpectthewholesalerstobringinventorylevelsdowntoaroundonemonth.
Soinadditiontothat,factorin,ofcourse,increasedscriptgrowth,priceincreases,andournewproducts--suchasRuconest,Ucerisrectalfoam,andRelistorsubcutaneousinjectionforchronicpain.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Well,andwegaveguidanceforQ4thatwedohaveahighlevelofconfidencein.Andthen,goinginto2015withtheDSAsinplace,that'sthemainreasonwe'regoingtotheDSAsissothatwequithavingthisvolatility,andthatwearebetterabletogiveguidancebyquarter.
GaryNachman(Analyst-GoldmanSachsGroup):
Okay.Andthenonecommercialquestion.Givensomeoftheturnoverthatyousawinthesalesforcehastakenalittlebitlongertogetthetractionthatyouwerehoping,justcommenthowyoufeelcomfortablethatyou'llbeabletocommercializeXIFAXAN,beforetheIBSindication,effectively.Thanks.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Ournormalturnoverrateforpeoplethatwehireissomewhereintheindustryaverageof15%to20%.WiththeSantarusandInventiverepresentatives,welookedattheirtrackrecordatthepreviouscompany.Andwelookedattheirresumesandtheirexperienceandwaytheywereevaluatedwheretheywere.
Butwedidnotputthemthroughournormalinterviewingprocess.AndIamnotsayingoursisbetterthantheirswas,oranythinglikethat.
Butwejustpluggedpeoplein,andtheyleftforvariousreasons.Someofthemdidn'tliketheirnewterritory--missedtheiroldphysicianbase.Weareaverydemandingcultureformarketsharegrowthandscriptgrowth,
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andweaskpeopletomakealotofcallsanddoalotofthingsthatnoteverycompanydoes.Welikealotoftimeinthefieldinfrontofourhealthcareproviders,andnoteverybodyoperatesthesameway,sothereweresomeculturaldifferences.
Ithink,moredirectly,toyourquestionaboutIBSD,wewillbedoingournormalinterviewingprocessandmaking--andwewon'tbetakingpeoplethatwerehiredbysomeoneelseandputtingtheminanewsituation.
Wewillbehiringpeoplethatwanttojoinus,andit'stheirdecisiontojoinusandourdecisiontobringthemonboard.Sothat--we'veneverhadanunusuallyhighturnoverrateinthatsituation.
DidIansweryourquestion?
GaryNachman(Analyst-GoldmanSachsGroup):
Okay.Yes,partofit.ButI' lljumpbackinqueue.Thankyou.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromJasonGerberrywithLeerinkpartners.
JasonGerberry(Analyst-LeerinkSwann):
Hi.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Hey,Jason.
JasonGerberry(Analyst-LeerinkSwann):
Hi.Goodevening.Thanksfortakingthequestion.
Justcuriousifyoucouldtakeusbacktothetriggersfortheaudit.Iamjustcurious,ifinanyway,someCompanyislookingtopotentiallyacquireSalix--ifthatwasapotentialtrigger.Andifyou'recurrentlystillreviewingoffersforCompanysale?
Andthen,mysecondquestion--canyoumaybetalkalittlebitabouttheeconomicsaroundXIFAXAN?You'vedoneacoupleagreementsnowwithCiplaandLupintohelpshoreuptheIPportfolio.
Justcurious,whenwethinkabouttheroyalties,Iassumethosearebookedincostofgoods.Arethosemeaningful?Hasthegrossmarginprofilechangedmuchfromwhatwethoughtwasa95%grossmarginonthatproduct?Thanks.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Thatwasalotofquestions,soforgiveusifwedon'thitonallofthem.You'lljusthavetoremindus.
Butasfar--Ithinkyouaskedaquestionaroundthatinvolvedauditcommittee'sreviewofeverything.SoasI'vealreadysaid,wecan'tcommentonthat.
Andthen,inrelationtoM&A,Idon'tthinkanycompany--Iknowwecertainlydon'tgetcaughtupincommentingonrumorsandmarketspeculationsandthingslikethat.
ThenasfarastheagreementsonRifaximin,what--reminduswhat--
JasonGerberry(Analyst-LeerinkSwann):
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Yes.Sorry.ThefollowuponRifaximinwasjust,withalltheseagreementswithCipla,Lupin,justkindofcurioushowyouguysareaccountingforanyroyaltiesassociatedwiththoseagreements.Andhowweshouldbethinkingaboutyourgrossmarginprofileforthatproduct.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.TheeconomicshavenotchangedsignificantlyonRifaximin.
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
Yes.ThisisRickagain.
SotheCiplalicenseonthatIPdoesn'tapplytothecurrentform.Soit'saroundournewSSDandindevelopment.Soitwon'tchangeeconomicsofourcurrentform.
JasonGerberry(Analyst-LeerinkSwann):
Okay.Thankyou.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromGregGilbertwithDeutscheBank.
GregoryGilbert (Analyst-DeutscheBank):
Yes,thankyou.Myfirstquestionis,willthecurrentsituationaffectyourabilitytofile10-Qsand10-Ksinatimelymanner?
Myfollowupis,havetherebeenanyotherchangesinpersonnel,otherthantheCFO?Thanks.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Managementdoesn'texpectanychangesinourabilitytofileourrequiredfilingsof10-Qsand10-Ks.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Andno.Therehavebeennootherchanges.
GregoryGilbert (Analyst-DeutscheBank):
Asapartofthatfirstone,canyoutellmewhatthe--youguyssubmittedanapplicationtohaveconfidentialtreatmentforsomeexhibitsintheform8-K.Canyoushedsomelightonthat?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
I'mnotsureweknowwhatyou're--
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.We'llhaveto--which8-Kisthat?
GregoryGilbert (Analyst-DeutscheBank):
JustanSECdocumentdatedNovember6,2014,(inaudible)grantingconfidentialtreatmentundertheSecuritiesExchangeActof1934.Wecanfollow-upafterifit'snot--
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
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Yes.Ifyouwanttofollowup,thatwouldbegreat.
GregoryGilbert (Analyst-DeutscheBank):
Thanks.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromShibaniMalhotrawithStern,Agee.Pleasegoahead.
ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Hi.Soabouttheauditcommittee--Iknowyoucan'tcommentonwhat'sgoingon--butcanyougiveusanupdateorestimateonthetimingofwhenthat'sgoingtoplayout?
Andthen,followingonfromthat,Carolyn,you'vetalkedaboutshareholdervalueveryoftenoncalls.Andclearlythiseventisgoingtolikelycauseahit,intermsofthatparameter.
Sohowrealistic,orhowlikelyisitthattheBoardmightconsidernowsellingSalixassetstosomeoneelsewhomightbeabletobettermanageormoreappropriatelymanagetheassets?Howareyouthinkingaboutthat?Thanks.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Letmegobacktoyourfirstquestion,Shibani.Yes.There'ssomemusicbleedingthrough.
Theauditcommittee--they'regoingtobeverythorough,andtheyaremadeupofourindependentdirectors.Managementisnotinvolvedinthis.
Soreally,it'snotappropriateformetotalkalotabouttheirbusinessandtheworkthey'reconducting.Butwedo--managementdoesfeelconfidentthattheywillcompletethisinatimelymanner,buttheywillcertainlytakeallthetimetheyneed.
Andthen,weexpectthatwhencompleted,theauditcommitteewilladvisemanagementhere.AndtheCompanywillmakeanyappropriatedisclosuresatthattime.
Then,asfarastheBoardinterestedinsellingtheCompany,ourprospectsforgrowtharestrong.Ourpipelineisstrong.Ourcurrentproductsaregrowinglikecrazy--Imean,we'vegotalotofgreatthingsgoingforus.
Buthavingsaidthat,theBoardhasacompleteunderstandingoftheirfiduciaryresponsibilitiestoevaluateallopportunitiesanddelivervaluetoshareholders.Sowe'vealwaysdonethat.
Butthisissuethatwe'reworkingthroughandthatwe'redescribingtodayis--it'saverytemporaryissueinonesmallaspectofourbusiness,comparedtoourpipeline,comparedtoourgrowingportfolioofproducts,comparedtoalltheotherthingswehavegoingon,nottheleastofwhichisahugeindicationthatwehopewewillbegettinginfirstquarternextyear.
ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Okay.Thankyou.
Operator:
We'lltakeournextquestionfromTimLugowithWilliamBlair.
TimLugo (Analyst-WilliamBlair):
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Thanksfortakingthequestion.Giventhathugeindicationcomingupin2015,ifweseescripttrendscontinuetobestrong,isXIFAXAN'ssalesgrowthgoingtobecorrespondingtoscripttrendsbythen?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Saythatagain,Tim.
TimLugo (Analyst-WilliamBlair):
TherevenuerecognizedfromsalesofXIFAXAN--willweseeitgrowingin-linewithstrongscripttrends,especiallywithalaunchinIBS?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Aswesaid,weplantoreduceourwholesalerinventoriesthroughtheperiodof2016.ButifwehavescriptgrowthfromtheIBSlaunch,obviously,thatcouldhappenquicker.Andassoonaswegetinventoriesnormalizedtothreemonths,thenwehopethatscriptgrowthwouldbemoredirectlyreflectedinourrevenuenumbers.
TimLugo (Analyst-WilliamBlair):
So3monthsistheinventorytarget,asopposedto9,obviously,and10to12weekswe'vebeenhearing.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Correct.CurrentinventorylevelforXIFAXANisninemonths.Andourtargetbytheendof2016isthreemonths.
TimLugo (Analyst-WilliamBlair):
Understood.Thanks.
Operator:
We'llgonexttoIrinaKofflerwithCantorFitzgerald.
IrinaKof f lerRivkind(Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):
Thanksfortakingthequestion.IwantedgobacktoIBSD.HastheFDAaskedyouforanyadditionalXIFAXANinformationsinceyousubmittedtheNDA?Anyinterimanalyses,biomarkers,anything?AndisthereanypossibilityofadelayedPDUFA?
WilliamForbes (ChiefDevelopmentOfficer,CMOandEVPofResearch&Development):
Hi,Irina.ThisisBill.
Ithinkrightnow,theyhavenotmentionedanythingaboutadelay.They'remakingtheirwaythroughthedata.Iwouldcharacterizethebackandforthasbeingfairlyroutine.
It'salargedataset.Wealwayssaidthat.Weknewitwouldbeachallenge,gettingthroughallofthisdatainsixmonths.Buthavingsaidthat,wearegettingquestionsfromthem.Andwe'reansweringthosequestionsasfastaswecan.Andthey'vedonesomeaudits,asexpected,oftheclinicalcenters.Andthose,frommyunderstanding,havegoneextremelywell.Iknowseveralhaveresultedinno483beingissuedatall.
SoIthink,rightnow,wejustseethemprogressingonthereview.Whetherornottheywilldelaytheireventualdecision,issomethingIcan'tevenspeculateonbecausewejustdon'thaveanyknowledgeofthat.ButasIcansay,we'redoingeverythingonoursidetomakesurethatwefacilitate,inanywaywecan,theirreview.
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IrinaKof f lerRivkind(Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):
Perfect.Andjustaconstructivequestiononmodelingtheinventory,goingforward.Soshouldwe--basedonRick'scomments--expectastraightlineinventoryworkdown?Oristhereapossibilityofsomelumpinessinthere?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Ithinkitwillbemoreofastraightline.Andaswesaidbefore,thatitwillbeaffectedbyfuturescriptgrowth,priceincreases,growthofournewproducts,andthosethings.
IrinaKof f lerRivkind(Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):
Thankyou.
Operator:
We'llgonexttoShawwithCreditSuisse.
RonakShah(Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Hi.Thankyoufortakingmyquestions.Ithink--justtogoclarifyonthetwoyearsandhowwemodelthisout.Particularlyinthebackdropofinventorybeingdrawndownoverthisperiod,isitfairtosaythat,basically,thereportedsalesnumbereveryquarterislikelytocomeinbelowdemandasinventoryis,basically,beingdrawndown?AndIhaveonefollowupquestion.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.
RonakShah(Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Okay.Great.Justintermsofthefollowupquestion--ifwethinkfromhowyouaremonitoring,asyoulookattherolloutofnewgenerationofhepatitisCagents.CanyougiveusasenseofhowyoumonitoritsimpactonXIFAXAN'sencephalopathybusiness?Andwhatkindofimpactyouexpect,andinwhattimeframedoyouthinkthiscanmanifestitself?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Wellfortheforeseeablefuture,wedon'tthinkthatitwillhaveanyimpact.Thereare--somepeoplebelievethattherecouldbeapositiveimpactbecausethereissuchabigpushnowandsomuchtalkaboutHepCthathopefullymoreandmorepatientsarebeingdiagnosed.
Soifthosepatientsthatarebeingdiagnosedalreadyhaveascarredorcirrhosedliver,theymayalreadybeexperiencingHE.Andthatwouldbediscovered,andthenwewouldbeavailabletotreatthatasatreatmentoption.
SotheHepCpopulationisexpectedtonotpeakuntil2020.Inthemeantime,thethingthateveryoneinthelivercommunityorthattreatsliverpatientsistalkingaboutisNASH,alsocommonlyknownasfattyliverdisease.Sothatissupposedto,Ithink,beasbigasmaybecholesterol.It'sbeencomparedtothecholesterolmarket.
Sowefeellikethatthefutureforhepaticencephalopathytreatmentsisgreat.SoImean,that'sbasedonallthedata,talkingwiththoughtleaders--everythingwehaveatourdisposaltellsusthat.
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RonakShah(Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Great.Thankyou.
Operator:
We'llgonexttoOrenLivnatwithJMPSecurities.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Thanks.Iamjusttryingtowrapmymindalittlebitmoreaboutthisconceptofwhatarunrateis,inthepastandgoingforward.SoIunderstand--andhaveunderstood--thateverymonthorquarter,yougiveusthelatestmonth's,annualizeit,kindofprice.Butyou'reactuallyshippingbottleseverydayandrecordingsales.
Soasthisinventoryhasaccumulatedunbeknownsttoyoutoaverylargeninemonths,whatwereyou--wasyourrunratethetrueRXtimespricerunrate?Orwereyougivingusarunratebasedonwhatyouwereshipping,whichmayhavebeen,infact,inflatedovertime?
Andistherunrateyouaregivingusnowbasedonatrue--weknowwhatthepriceis,weknowwhattheaveragediscountsare,rebatestopayers--thisis,infact,thefundamentaldemandnumber?AndIguess,howdidwemissthedifferentialbetweenwhatyou'reshippingandwhatyou'retellingustherunrateisforthelastXnumberofquartersoryears?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Well,therunrate,asIsaidbefore,issortofaone-timeevent.Andit'sbasedonthemonth'sprescriptionstimesourcurrentnetprice.Andit'sthesamecalculationwe'vedoneanddisclosedineachofourcalls.
Theproblemwithtryingtorelateittosalesoveranyperiodoftime--orshipmentsoranythinglikethat--isthere'salotmorevariablesthatareinvolved,suchaspriceincreases,changesinrebates,andthenourmonthlyprescriptionsarenotstatic.SoIthink--Imean,doesthatansweryourquestion?
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Well,Iguess,scriptsaresortofanend-userissue,right?Sothewholesalerismonetizingscripts.You'remonetizingshipmentstowholesalers,right?
Soifyou'rebuildingupahalfayear'sextrainventoryabovewhatyouthoughtyouhad,presumably,theywerepayingyouforallofthatproduct.Andyouwerebookingawholelotofrevenuethatwasaboveandbeyondwhattheprescription,quoteunquote,runrateshouldhavebeen.
SoI'mjusttryingtounderstanddisconnectofhowcould--unlesstheyweren'tpayingyouforit.ButIthinkiftheywere,theywouldhavebeenpushingbackalotearlier,Iwouldhavethought,basedontheirowncashflowsituation.We'rebuyingmorethanweareselling.Canyouhelpusjustunderstandhowthatcouldhappen--thatdisconnect?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Imean,Iguess,theinventorylevels,aswesaid,haveremainedconstantoverthisperiodoftime--over2014.Andaswe--you'rebasicallytryingtojustcomparebananasandapples.Becausetherunrateamountdoesnottakeintoaccountallthevariabilitywiththeprescriptionsbymonth,changesinrebates,priceincreases,andthevarietyofitemsthathitourrevenueinanyparticularperiod.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Andthenwehavereturns.
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TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Thenwehavereturn[reserves].Yes.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Dependingonwhatisshipped.Andtherearereturnreserves,basedonproductmovement.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Correct.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Okay.AndifIcouldjusttrythesamequestion--justonelastangle.Andplease,bearwithme.
Thelasttwoquarters,we'veallbeenoperatingundertheassumptionthat,basedontherunrateyougaveusandsalesyoureportedandthetwoshortfallswehadthelasttwoquarters,thatthatindicated,quoteunquote,destocking,right?Youhadarunratenumber.Youreportedanumberthatwasn'treallyconsistentwiththat,andhence,thedifferencebeingdestocking--manyweeksonseveralproducts,wethought.
Butthentoday,you'retellingusinventoryhasactuallybeenreallystableatninemonthsforXIFAXAN.Sotherehasn'tbeendestockingthelasttwoquarters.
Whatwashappeningthelasttwoquarters,whenyoursalesweresignificantlylowerthanthe,quoteunquote,runrate?Orwhenyouinvestigatedthedifference,whatdidyoulearnsixmonthsagoinMarch--thefirsttimethathappened?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Unfortunately,Ican'tcommentonthepriordisclosuresbecausetheauditcommitteeisretainedoutsidecounselandisconductingareview.SoI'munabletocommentonthatquestion.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Well,thanks.
Operator:
We'lltakeafollowupnextfromMarioCorsowithMizuhoUSA.
Mario Corso (Analyst-MizuhoSecurities):
Yes.Thanksforthefollowup.Iamgoingtotrytore-askmyinitialquestion.Imightnothaveaskeditveryclearly.Whenwethinkabout4Q,iftheIMAsaren'tgoingintoeffectuntilQ1of2015,I'mtryingtofigureoutwhat'shittingQ4revenuethatdidn'thitQ3revenue.Becausetheonlythingthatlookedmateriallydifferentthandemandin3Qismaybethepurgative.InfrontoftheIMAsgoingintoeffect,isthereareductionininventorythat'sstartingin4Q,andthat'swhywe'reseeingthatprojectedshortfallinrevenue?Thankyou.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
No.Imean,Ithinktheshortfallonrevenueisbecauseourprescriptiongrowthhasbeenlessthanwehadexpectedandbecauseofthefactorswetalkedaboutbefore--thehighunexpectedturnoverinSantarus.Andweexpect,Ithink,ourinventoriestobeconstantattheendoftheyearbecausewewon'tbeabletoenterintotheIMAsuntileffectiveJanuary1.
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RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
That'scorrect.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Oratsomepointinfirstquarter.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
Butwe're--withtheDSAs,we'reintheprocessofnegotiatingthose.Thosewillbeinplaceatthebeginningof2015.Theremainderofthisyear,ourinventoriesremainconstant.
Mario Corso (Analyst-MizuhoSecurities):
Sothat'stheSantarusportfoliothatyou'respeakingabout,then?
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
No.I'mtalkingabouttheentireSalixportfolio,whichincludesSantarus.
Mario Corso (Analyst-MizuhoSecurities):
Andthatrepdefectionishavingthatsignificanteffecton,say,XIFAXANthen?
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
Yes.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Yes,becauseasmuchasXIFAXANisgrowing,wehadveryaggressiveprescriptionnumbersforthisyear--orforecast--becauseweexpectedthenewsalesforcetobeupandrunningandtostarttohaveaprettysteepramp,cominginthatMarch,Apriltimeframe.Andtherampisnotreallyacceleratinganddoingwhatwehadexpectedittodo.We'rejustseeingthatinthelastcoupleofmonths.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Andthesalespeoplethathavebeenleavingweresellingallofourproducts,notjusttheSantarusproducts.Wejustidentifiedthembecausetheyweretheoneshiredinconnectionwiththemerger.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Yes.WhentheSantarusandInventiverepscameover,alotofthemweresellingSalixproductsbecausegoingintotheprimarycaremarketplace,theprimaryproductthereonmostcallsisXIFAXAN550.
Operator:
We'llnexttakeafollowupfromMichaelFaermwithWellsFargo.Mr.Faerm,yourlineisopen.
MichaelFaerm(Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):
Sorryforthedelay.Thanksforthefollowup.
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RegardingtheCFOdeparture,withthenamingofaninterimCFOandhiringofasearchfirm,itwouldseemtobeanunplannedevent.Canyoucommentonanyofthereasonsforthedeparture?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
No.We'renotgoingtomakeanycommentbeyondwhat'sstatedinthe8-Kandthepressreleasewiththat.
MichaelFaerm(Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):
Okay.Justoneotherfollowup.Haveyouconsidered--ormightweexpecttosee--anyexpensereductionsover2015and2016thatmightpartlyoffsetthenegativeimpactonrevenuesfromthedestocking?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
We'realwaysmonitoringourexpenselevels.Andwe'llcontinuetomonitorthem,sowe'lltakethatintoaccount.
MichaelFaerm(Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):
Thankyou.
Operator:
We'lltakeafollowupfromShibaniMalhotrawithStern,Agee.
ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Hi.Nomusicthistime.Conceptually,wantedtoaskyouaquestion.Isitfairtolookatthislikewe'relosing--ifyoutookalltheinventoriesdowninonego,wearelosingaroundsixmonthsofsalesforSalixformostofyourkeyproducts.Butthenbeyondthat,thingsshouldbeclean.Andwe'regoingtogobacktotherunrateplussomethingbecauseyouhaveproductsgrowing,andyouhaveXIFAXANIBDcomingout.Isthatthecorrectwaytolookatit,intermsofavaluation?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Ingeneral,itis.Buttheninemonthsisbasedonournext-quarterestimates.Andasourprescriptionscontinuetogrowandwelaunchotherproducts,thatcouldreducetheperiodoftimeortheamountthatitaffectsourrevenues.
ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Right.Soinaworstcase,it'ssixmonthsofrevenues.Andthat'skindofwhatwe'velost--justbyaccounting,correct?
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Ithinkthat'sfair.
ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Okay.Andthesecondthing--ifyoucangiveusjustanupdatedsenseofpricingforyourkeyproducts,justsothatwe'reallonthesamepointfornow?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Areyouaskingforrecentpriceincreases?
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ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Justwhatthecurrentpriceperscriptisforeachofyourkeyproducts,oryourmeaningfulproducts.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Wemayneedto--
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.We'llhavetofollowupwithyouonthatone.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Yes.
ShibaniMalhotra (Analyst-SterneAgee&Leach):
Okay.Thankyou.Thankyouverymuch.
Operator:
AfollowupfromGregoryGilbertwithDeutschebank.
GregoryGilbert (Analyst-DeutscheBank):
Thankyou.Twofollowups.Oneis,allthetalksofarhasbeenaboutwholesaleinventorylevels.Isthereanythingtonoteaboutretailerinventorylevelsthroughoutthissituation?
Andthesecondpartisregardingyourthree-monthtarget.I'mprettysurethat'sthehighestIhaveheardforcompanieswefollow,inanIMAcontext.
Areyousurethatthreemonthsiswhereyouwanttobe?Andistheresomethinguniqueaboutyourproducts,versustherestoftheindustrythatseemstobeatonemonthorbelow?Thanks.
RickScruggs (EVPofBusinessDevelopment):
ThisisRickagain.Wehavenoimpactatretail.OurDSAswillguaranteeservicelevelsthatwillmakesurethattheproductsareatpharmacyforpatients.Sowehavenoproblemswiththat.
Andwe'recomfortablewiththistargetbecauseofourproductshavereallygoodprescriptiongrowthandhavelongdatingonalltheproducts.Andsowebelievethat'stherightlevelforus.
GregoryGilbert (Analyst-DeutscheBank):
Thanks.
Operator:
We'lltakeafollowupfromOrenLivnatfromJMPSecurities.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Thanks.Ijustwanttomakesuremymathisright.SoIthinkthereisstillsomeconfusionaroundQ4.
You'resayingthatthereisnoinventorydrag,perse,inthatquarter.Andthatit'sjustscriptsunderperformingyourambitiousexpectations.ButifIjustadduptherevenue,thedifferencebetweenQ4--yourfull-yearguidanceandwhatyou'vedoneyear-to-date,arewenotseeingaquarter-over-quarterdecline?
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DidIjustdomymathwrong?I'msorry.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Imean,yes.Wehad$355millioninQ3and$325millionasourguidanceforQ4.
Aswesaid,theshortfallisbecauseofourprescriptiongrowthonourkeyproductsislessthanwehadexpected.And--becauseoftheturnoverinSantarussalesforce,wholesalerdiscountshigherthanbudgeted,andhigherthanexpectedrebatesontheSantarusproduct.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Well,andinfairness,Oren,wedon'twanttoputguidanceoutthereandmissitagain.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Right.ButjustsoI'mclear--scriptsaregoingupandtotheright,especiallyforyourbiggestproducts,whichisgreatandreallyencouraging.Presumably,ifthere'snodemanddragforinventorydestockinQ4andtherunrateyou'regivingusorthevalueperscriptiswhatitisandisn'tchangingorgoingdown,shouldn'tsalesgoupnextquarter?
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Well,andtheymay,hopefully.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
AndsinceweareinthemiddleofnegotiatingtheseDSAs,we'renot--we'realittleapprehensiveabouthowthewholesalerswillreact.Sowe,asCarolynsaid,wewantedtogiveanumberthatwecouldhitforQ4,basedonourexpectations.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Okay.It'sjustadramaticdropoff.AndsoIacceptthatmaybeyou'rebeingveryconservative,andperhapsthere'ssomerebatinginvolvedandsomestuffthathappens.
Butwe'rejusttryingtoreconcilesortof--goingforward,everything'snormal.Scripts--justmodelisstraight-linedragstartingnextyear.Butalready,Ifeellikewearegettingintoanotherconfusingquarter,rightoffthebat,thisnextquarter.Ijustwanttomakesureweunderstand.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Yes.Well,Imean,thisquarterisgoingtobedifferentbecausewe'regoingtobeintheprocessofnegotiatingtheagreements.Sowebelieveit'sjustatemporary,one-timethingaswenegotiatetheagreementsandmoveforwardintonextyear.
OrenLivnat (Analyst-JMPSecurities):
Allright.Well,thankssomuch.
Operator:
Andwe'lltakeournextquestionfromIrinaKofflerRivkindwithCantorFitzgerald.
IrinaKof f lerRivkind(Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):
Thanksforthefollowup.VerysimpleinventoryaccountingstufflikeLIFOorFIFO--whenwe'reforecasting
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howit'sgoingtogetworkeddown,shouldwebeforecastingusingthemorecurrentpricing,whichishigher?Andtherefore,youcouldworkitdownfaster?Thanks.
TimothyCreech(SVP,FinanceandAdministration,andActingCFO):
Well,yes.Imean,oursalesintotheinventorywillbeatthecurrentpricing.Sothat'swhatourrevenuewillberecognizedbasedon.
IrinaKof f lerRivkind(Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):
Okay.Thankyou.
Operator:
Thatdoesconcludeourquestionandanswersessionfortoday.I'dnowliketoturnthecallbackovertoMs.Loganforfurtherremarks.
CarolynLogan(CEO,PresidentandDirector):
Iwouldjustliketothankeverybodyforbeingonthecall.We'verunalittlebitover,sothanksforstayingonthecallwithus.Andwelookforwardtotalkingwithyouonournextearningscall.Thankyou.
Operator:
Ladiesandgentlemen,thisdoesconcludetoday'steleconference.Wethankyouforyourparticipation.
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