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Rural Livelihoods in PNG . Colin Hunt School of Economics The University of Queensland. Rural livelihoods in PNG. Population. PNG’s Dual Economy. Small scale . Large scale. PNG’s exports, kina millions. Rural economy. Informal - Formal. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Rural livelihoods in PNGColin HuntSchool of EconomicsThe University of Queensland
Rural Livelihoods in PNG
Population
Rural 82%
Urban18%
PNG’s Dual Economy
Small scale
Large scale
PNG’s exports, kina millions
Agric, 2226 Forest;
477Marine;
233
Minerals; 9144
Rural economy
SUBSISTENCE
+Surplus
MIXED
Cash crop /fishing+Handicrafts+Processing+Subsistence
COMMERCIAL
Cash crop /fishing+Processing +Transport
INDUSTRIAL
LoggingProcessingPalm oilCoffee Fishing/canning
Informal - Formal
Human Development Indicators, PNG-Aus
INDICATOR PNG AUS
Life expectancy 61.6 81.9
Years of schooling
4.3 12
Gender inequality
2.96 7.84
Gross national income/head
US$
2,230 38,690
Ag. Performance 1.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20406080
100120140160180
Agricultural volume Series2Population
Inde
x
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20080
50100150200250300350400450500
CocoaCoffeeTeaCopraCopra oilPalm oilRubber
‘000
tonn
esAg. Performance 2.
Rural development impediments
theft/violence ability to save and borrow inadequate transport/roads poor schooling/ag. extension
Regress ?
• Law and Order X
• Corruption X
• Skilled labour X
“ROADS TO RUIN” POST COURIER 2001“In the absence of a large works
program...economic growth will be reduced and poverty will be perpetuated.
Progress
Digicel bilong ples
Roads
A boom?
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Minerals
Agriculture
Price
inde
x
Palm oil projection
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Area
Export value
Hect
ares
US$
mill
ions
Positives RSPO cert
Demand Lease land
But Costs high
Labour short Popn. density Land disputes
Palm oil production, PNG
•Nulceus estate
•Smallholder ~35% of production
•Company acquires land under lease- leaseback
Landowner benefit, export logging, US$ millions, 2011
National govern-ment in-
come (log tax), 69
Landowner royalty, 11
Landowner dev’ment, 34
Logging company profit; 38
To impact rural livelihoods?
Special Agricultural and Business Leases
(SABLs) *
A way of increasing logging, without real agricultural development and without environmental management
To impact rural livelihoods?
Reduction in Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) programs
To replace logging?
To impact rural livelihoods?
Massive resource projects Fall in value of exports affecting livelihoods
of millions of small producers?
Is change sustainable?
Economic impacts: Sustained or transient?
Social impacts: Food security, income distribution issues?
Environmental impacts: Forest loss and pollution?
Rural Livelihoods in PNG
Colin HuntSchool of Economics
The University of Queensland
Logging oil palm and livelihoods in Papua New Guinea___________________
Symposium at James Cook University20 April, 2011
