Root Causes of Social Vulnerability:

Demographic and Economic Trends

Session 6

Session 6 2

Session Objectives

Understand major demographic trends in the U.S. and globally.

Understand broad migration trends in the U.S. and globally.

Explore poverty in the U.S. and globally.

Appreciate how population trends can contribute to vulnerability and require special consideration for emergency management and disaster response. Later sessions will explore the relationship between these trends and vulnerability in more detail.

Session 6 3

Why disaster losses go up…

Population growth Land pressure Urbanization Inequality Climate change Political change Economic growth

Technological innovation

Social expectations Global

interdependence

Session 6 4

Population & Economic Trends

General trends contributing to vulnerability

– Population trends Population increase Children & Elderly Diversity Migration

– Economic disparity Poverty Access to resources

Session 6 5

Population Growth

Birth Rates: annual # of live births/1000 people Fertility Rates: annual average number of

children a woman has during reproductive years Death Rates = annual mortality rate/1000 Natural increase = Birth Rate – Death Rate

Session 6 6

Implications of Population Growth

Carrying Capacity– Maximum # of individuals of any species that can

be supported by a particular ecosystem on a long-term basis

– Different views: Zero Population Growth: Ehrlich (1970) Bring ‘em on!: Boserup (1965)

Creating stress on resource and land use Living in more marginal environments,

particularly with regard to hazards Changing demographic structure, altering

vulnerabilities

Session 6 7Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.         

Population in billions

2

4

6

8

10

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

20006.1 billion

Session 6 8

Population by Age and Sex: 1990, and 2030

Developing CountriesDeveloped Countries

Session 6 9

Natural Increase or Decrease for States, 2000–2001

Session 6 10

U.S. Child and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1900–2000, Projections to 2050

Session 6 11

Migration Implications for Vulnerability

Changing nature of communities– Social and family networks change– Shifting resources

As people move to new places– Often do not have understanding of hazards in

new location Past experiences do not necessarily correspond to

changed geography Limited knowledge about resources & hazards

Session 6 12

Factors Influencing Why People Migrate

Push factors Pull factors Ease of movement Alternative destinations Perception/Information

Session 6 13

Migration Trends

Numbers– About 175 million people, or 3% of world’s

population– 60% reside in developed nations

Refugee populations– 15.9 million people in 2000– Most are in developing nations (12.9 million)

Urbanization In U.S., toward the coast

Session 6 14

Countries with the Largest International Migrant Stock, 2000

Source: United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, International Migration, 2002.         

Session 6 15

Urbanizing Population

Share of World Population Growth in Urban & Rural

Areas, 1950-2025

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision (2000).

Percent of Population Living in Urban Areas,

1950, 1975, 2000, & 2025

Session 6 16

Urbanizing Population

Percent Urban

5-2829-4445-6162-7980-100

Source: derived from 2002 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau

Session 6 17

Megacities

Session 6 18

Reasons for Moving in the U.S.,1999-2000 Family (26.3%)

– Change in marital status– To establish own household– Other *

Work (16.2%)– New job/job transfer *– To look for work/lost job– Closer to work/easier commute– Retired

Housing (51.6%)– Wanted to own home/not rent– New/better house/apartment *– Better neighborhood/less crime– Cheaper housing

Other (6.0%)– attend/leave college *– Change of climate– Health reasons

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 1998, March 1999, and March 2000.

Session 6 19

Net International and Interstate Migration by State, 2000–2001

Session 6 20

Regional Origins of Immigrants to the U.S.

Session 6 21

Poverty and Vulnerability

Direct link between poverty and vulnerability Affects access to monetary resources in face

of disaster Impacts ability to mitigate against hazards Must prioritize everyday needs

Session 6 22

Income Disparities

Almost one-quarter of the world's 5.7 billion people ''continues to live in a state of severe poverty.'' United Nations

More than 1.3 billion people currently live below the poverty line, surviving on a dollar a day

41 countries designated as "heavily indebted poor countries" by the World Bank, 39 fall into the category of high-fertility nations, where women, on average, bear four or more children. (August 2002)

Session 6 23

UNDP Poverty Report 2000

Two ways of measuring poverty

The $1 per day is an income measure of poverty: it measures the percentage of people who live on less than $1 per day

The Human Poverty Index (HPI)

Session 6 24

UNDP Poverty Report 2000

The HPI measures deprivation in basic human development. It takes into account:

– % of people expected to die before age 40– % of adults who are illiterate– % of population without access to health

services– % of population without access to safe water– % of children under five who are underweight

Session 6 25

Population living on less than US$1 Per Day (percent)

UNDP Poverty Report 2000

Session 6 26

UNDP Poverty Report 2000Human Poverty Index for Developing Countries

Session 6 27

Life Expectancy at Birth: 2000

Under 50 years50 to 64 years65 to 74 years75 years and over

Source: derived from 2002 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau

Session 6 28

Economic Disparity in U.S.

Median Income for HouseholdsAverage Income per Household

By Race & Hispanic OriginOf Householder: 1999

Session 6 29

Economic Disparity in U.S.

Session 6 30

Percent of U.S. Children in Poverty, 2000

Total

WhiteNon-Hispanic White

BlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (May Be Any Race)

16.2%

13.09.4

30.914.528.0

Total

WhiteNon-Hispanic White

BlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (May Be Any Race)

16.2%

13.09.4

30.914.528.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data from the March 2000 Current Population Study, available at www.census.gov and http://ferret.bls.census.gov.

Session 6 31

U.S. Home Ownership, 2000

72 percent of non-Hispanic whites 53 percent of Asians 46 percent of African Americans and of

Hispanics. Gap narrowed in recent decades, due in part

to an increasing number of mortgage loans to low-income, minority households

Session 6 32

Population, Economics and Vulnerability

Only a subset of indicators shown here– Many will be explored in greater detail in

following sessions

BOTTOM LINE…

hazards impact groups of people differentially based

on demographics and wealthHow do we correct this?