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12/19/2017 1 ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Prof. Dr. Ashok Vaseashta International Clean Water Institute/Institute of Advanced Sciences Convergence, VA/VT New Jersey City University ‐ A State University of New Jersey, Jersey City, NJ Ghitu Institute of the Electronic Engineering & Nanotechnologies Academy of Sciences of Moldova, Chisinau, MOLDOVA Mersin University, Mersin, TURKEY presented at Overview Roadmapping ? Framing – Opportunities and Challenges Nanotechnology, Bio‐Technology, Information Technology, and Cognitive Sciences – State of the art and Gaps Advanced Sciences Convergence Studies IASC Technology Roadmap Strategies Data Mining Forecasting and Predictive Modeling Example ‐ Chemical and Biological Defense Challenges and Path Forward

ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT … · 12/19/2017 1 ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Prof. Dr. Ashok Vaseashta International

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Page 1: ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT … · 12/19/2017 1 ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Prof. Dr. Ashok Vaseashta International

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ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

Prof. Dr. Ashok VaseashtaInternational Clean Water Institute/Institute of Advanced Sciences Convergence, VA/VT 

New Jersey City University ‐ A State University of New Jersey, Jersey City, NJGhitu Institute of the Electronic Engineering & Nanotechnologies

Academy of Sciences of Moldova, Chisinau, MOLDOVAMersin University, Mersin, TURKEY

presented at

Overview

Roadmapping ?Framing – Opportunities and ChallengesNanotechnology, Bio‐Technology, Information Technology, and Cognitive Sciences – State of the art and GapsAdvanced Sciences Convergence StudiesIASC

Technology Roadmap StrategiesData MiningForecasting and Predictive Modeling Example ‐ Chemical and Biological Defense 

Challenges and Path Forward

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Operational Platforms

(Beyond) Advanced Sciences Convergence

Cyber Security

Convergence Study I, S, Tech and K

NATO Meetings

International Clean Water

FEMA Training

TAS –model for 

IASC

Environmental Science

Consequence Management

JCTD: Peak

Business development

Business development

Business development

TSWG

DECIDECyber Smart

Cyber Exercises

Visual augmentation systemsCultural Awareness Education

Test and Evaluation

Clean Water, GIS/GPSRemote Monitoring

Defense Technologies

Distance Learning

ASC >> CISTeck

Predictive Intelligence, Roadmapping and Technology Assessment

• Predictive analytics is an area of statistics that deals with extracting information from data and using it to predict trends and behavior patterns. Often the unknown event of interest is in the future, but predictive analytics can be applied to any type of unknown whether it be in the past, present or future.

• Roadmapping is creating and delivering strategy and innovation by strategic alignment and dialogue between functions. The power of roadmapping lies in its flexibility, which can provide clarity and alignment of specific needs at all levels, including functional, organization‐wide and even collaboration between organizations.

• Technology assessment ‐ Technikfolgenabschätzung, French: évaluation des choix scientifiques et technologiques ‐ is a scientific, interactive, and communicative process that aims to contribute to the formation of public and political opinion on societal aspects of science and technology.

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# Technology Foresight & Road Mapping (TechFARM) Methodologies Family Hard or Soft Exploratory or Normative

1 Action [Options] Analysis V S N/Ex

2 Agent Modeling M&S H Ex

3 Analogies Desc H/S Ex

4 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) V H N

5 Backcasting [Research Profiling: Patent Analysis, Text Mining] Desc S N

6 Bibliometrics Mon/Stat H/S Ex

7 Brainstorming [Brainwriting, NGP‐ Nominal Group Process] Cr S N/Ex

8 Causal Models M&S H Ex

9 Checklists for Impact Identification Desc S Ex

10 CAS (Complex Adaptive System Modeling) [Chaos] M&S H Ex

11 Correlation Analysis Stat H Ex

12 Cost‐Benefit Analysis [Monetized & Other] V H Ex

13 Creativity Workshops [Future Workshops] Cr S Ex/N

14 Cross‐Impact Analysis M&S/Stat H/S Ex

15 Decision Analysis [Utility Analyses] V S N/Ex

16 Delphi (Iterative Survey) ExOp S (H) N/Ex

17 Demographics Stat H Ex

18 Diffusion Modeling M&S H Ex

19 Economic Base Modeling [Input‐Output Analysis] M&S/V H Ex

20 Field Anomaly Relacation (FAR) Sc S Ex/N

21 Focus Groups [Panel; Workshops] ExOp S N/Ex

22 Innovation System Modeling Desc S Ex

23 Interviews ExOp S N/Ex

24 Institutional Analysis Desc S Ex

25 Long Wave Analysis Tr H Ex

26 Mitigation Analysis Desc S N

27 Monitoring [Environmental Scanning, Technology Watch] Mon S Ex

28 Morphological Analysis Desc S N/Ex

29 Multicreiteria Decision Analyses [DEA‐ Data Envelopment Analysis] H N

30 Multiple Perspectives Assessment Desc S N/Ex

31 Organizational Analysis Desc S Ex

32 Participatory Techniques ExOp S N

33 Precursor Analysis Tr H Ex

34 Relevance Trees [Futures Wheel] Desk/V S N/Ex

35 Requirements Analysis [Needs Analysis, Attribute X Technology Matrix] Desc/V S/H N

36 Risk Analysis Desc/Stat H/S N/Ex

37 Roadmapping [Product‐technology Roadmapping] Desc H/S N/Ex

38 Scenarios [Scenarios with consistency checks; Scenario Mgmt.] Sc H/S N/Ex

39 Scenario‐Simulation [Gaming; Interactive Scenarios] Sc/M&S S N/Ex

40 Science Fiction Analysis Cr S N

41 Social Impact Assessment [Socio‐Economic Impact Assessment] Desc S N/Ex

42 Stakeholder Analysis [Policy Capture, Assumptional Analysis] Desc/V S Ex

43 State of the Future Index (SOFI) Desc H/S Ex

44 Sustainability Analysis [Life Cycle Analysis] Desc/M&S H Ex

45 Systems Simulation M&S H Ex

46 Technological Substitution

47 Technology Assessment M&S, Desc H, H/S Ex

48 Trend Extrapolation [Growth Curve Fitting & Projection] Tr H Ex

49 Trend Impact Analysis Tr/Stat H N/Ex

50 TRIZ Cr H N/Ex

51 Vision Generation Cr S N/Ex

52 Web 2.0/3.0 ‐ Social networks Tr H (S) Ex

**Family Codes**

Cr‐ Creativity; Desc‐ Descriptive & Matrices; Stat‐ Statistical;

ExOp‐ Expert Opinion; Mon‐ Monitoring & Intelligence; Currently in use

M&S‐ Modeling & Simulation; SC‐ Scenarios; Tr‐ Trend Analyses; Planned (immediate)

V‐ Valuing/Decision/Economic; H‐ hard (quantitative, S‐ soft (qualitative); Planned (future)

Method  Applicability Environment  Rating 

1‐10* 

Multiple Regression Analysis 

When two or more independent factors are involved. Widely used for intermediate term forecasting. Assesses  which  factors  to  include;  can  be  used  to  develop  alternate  models  with different factors. 

Nonlinear Regression 

Used for non‐linear relationship between variables. Frequently used when time is the independent variable. 

Trend Analysis  Uses linear and nonlinear regression with time as the explanatory variable. Used to determine patterns over time. 

Moving Average Analysis 

Forecasts future values based on a weighted average of past values. Easy to update due to simple averages. 

Weighted Moving Averages 

Widely used where repeated forecasts are required. Uses methods like sum‐of‐the‐digits and trend adjustment methods. Very powerful and economical. 

Adaptive Filtering 

Used for moving average this includes a method of learning from past errors. Responds to changes in the relative importance of trend, seasonal, and random factors. 

Exponential Smoothing 

A moving average form of time series forecasting. Used with seasonal patterns and relatively easy to adjust for past errors. Several different forms are used, depending on presence of trend or cyclical variations. Used to prepare follow‐on forecasts and where many forecasts must be prepared. 

Hodrick‐Prescott Filter 

Uses filter mechanism to obtain a long‐term trend component in a time series. Reduces a given series  into stationary and non‐stationary components  such that the sum of  squares of  the  series  from  the non‐stationary  component  is minimal, with a penalty on changes to the derivatives of the non‐stationary component. 

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 

Used  for  providing  decision  support  with  numerous  and  sometimes  conflicting evaluations. Provides a compromise in conflicting data. Used for risk assessment and forecasting. 

COTS Modeling and Simulation 

Modeling describes a situation through a series of equations. Allows  testing  of  impact  of  changes  in  various  factors  otherwise  time‐consuming  to construct. Requires user programming or purchase of packages such as SIMSCRIPT. Powerful in developing and testing strategies not otherwise evident. 

Certainty models 

Used to predict only the most likely outcome. Used as "what if" analysis ‐ often done with computer‐based spreadsheets. 

Probabilistic Models 

Uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to deal with uncertainty. Provides a range of possible outcomes for each set of events. 

    *subjective 

A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response ‐ anticipate multiple, plausible futures.Specific Methods

NBIC Convergence – Environmental Scanning (current trends/monitor weak signals)Delphi Survey Method – expert elicitation/Expert Technical PanelsRobust Factor Analysis and Strategic DevelopmentComputerized Modelling and Dynamic SimulationTechnology Foresight MethodExtrapolation MethodScenarios planningSocial Networking – monitor trends and methodologies/Virtual meetingsPredictive Intelligence

Technology Roadmapping‐Methodology

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Defense Against CBRNE

PSYOPS

ComplicatedNon‐linearKineticAsymmetricGame of illusionUnpredictableNo rules of engagementContradict Ethical values… 

Dual Use Technologies

Enhanced data fusion (collection/analysis)

Risk Assessment and Management

Consequence Management

Convergence of technologies Enhanced situational awareness 

Stand‐off detection

Dial‐a‐beacon (remote  and auto 

detection of “new” contaminants)

Sample in‐answer out

In‐situ sampled (point contact) detection

Triaging pathogens and forensics 

Eradicate contaminants at POO (point of origin)

Assessment (LC, LCA, LCO, …)

Mitigation strategies – environmental management

Use of decision support tools 

Ecosystem of Innovations

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Advanced Science Convergence

Convergent science study refers to the strategic and synergistic coalescence of multiple disciplines that create a unified system to solve intractable problems.

Provides new capabilities to understand natural world, human society & scientific research as closely coupled, complex & hierarchal systems. 

Approach

Early monitoring , identification, and surveillance of novel trans‐disciplinary scientific and technological advances to break through existing solution paradigms.

Understanding of far‐reaching, visionary, yet undefined and achievable outcomes that can be described in terms of desired actions or qualities of the eventual system.

Nucleation/Genesis

Convergence of Fields

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NBIC Convergence to Bridge Gaps in Technology 

Convergent science (a new paradigm) study refers to synergistic integration of major areas, viz. ‐ nanoscience and nanotechnology, biotechnology, biosciences, and genetic engineering, information technology, and cognitive sciences including cognitive neurosciences (NBIC).Exceptional recent advances are due to interfaces between previously separate fields of sciences & technologies. The transforming tools of NBIC provide new capabilities to understand natural world, human society & scientific research as closely coupled complex & hierarchical systems.The convergence of diverse technologies is based on the human ability to understand and manipulate matter at nanoscale.This stimulated integration of technologies at nanoscale has aided the convergence of technologies and sciences in human evolution.Novelty, originality, and timeliness is based on material unity at the nanoscale and technology integration from that scale.

Dimensions Comparable with many Fundamental Physical Quantities

Effective free‐path length of the electrons, phonons, etc.De Broglie electron wavelengthPenetration depth of the magnetic fieldAbrikosov vortex lattice, Josephson fluxons, Magnetic  flux quantum (Qubits)Radius of electron correlation length (coherent length)Wavelength of the electromagnetic fieldCyclotron Radius in Magnetic fieldRelaxation length of the quasi particles

Materials by design – specs based on materials vs. materials based on specs

NanostructuredNanoparticlesNanosized

} < 100 nm

Micro- d < 2 nm

Meso- 2 < d < 50 nm

Macro- d > 50 nm

IUPAC recommendation

Why Nanomaterials 

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DELPHI: Predictive Modeling in Technology Assessment 

Research Methodology…

Each technology/application area was evaluated by each expert panel member on three relevant dimensions:Commercial PotentialTechnical FeasibilityPublic Policy Issues

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Research Methodology…Each technology/application area was evaluated by each expert panel member on three relevant dimensions:

Commercial PotentialTechnical FeasibilityPublic Policy Issues

TechFARM

ADAMS

NESTTS

Data Analytics, Big Data and Decision Support Tools

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Evolutionarypresent

Impregnated suit  & masksPlacing pigeon in cageat trench entranceHandheld decon unit & decon tank truckTrench fan and entrance way

Impregnated suit  & masksPlacing pigeon in cageat trench entranceHandheld decon unit & decon tank truckTrench fan and entrance way

Revolutionary5‐15 Years

Accelerated Evolutionary0‐2 Years

Disruptive2‐5 years

Suit, gloves, boots & various masksPoint & “standoff” detectionHandheld decon unit including tank trucksShelters and filters

Current approach

CISTecKApproach

Future Combat systemsAdaptive, self‐reflective and Self‐MorphologySymbolic RegressionNanorobotics in vasculopathiesPlasmonic computation 3D data StorageMolecular Surveillance  & Detection of BiothreatAgentsUbiquitous testing, validation &Simulation  ‐Superbrain

NanocatalysisBio Engineered materialsMeta materials – NRIE‐textileAI and Self‐assemblyRoboticsGenomics

Evolutionary and Disruptive Approach vs. Revolutionary Approach 

Technology Assessment MatrixEmerging Significant Very  Significant

Very unlikely

Likely

Unknown

Feasible

Very Feasible

Minor

Sensor network grid

Moderate

Water  monitoring nano‐bio sensors

SprayableColorometric

sensors

SERS

Electrochemical chem/bio sensors

Self‐sustaining power generators for e‐m sensors  & warfare

Nanocomposites for suits & wearable electronics

Smart Biocidalcoatings

Implantable Nanoarrays

Nanophotonics

Directed evolutional Chips

Water filtersNano encapsulated health monitors

Metabolic prosthesis

Brain‐machine interface

Pathology linked health records

Personalized and timed  release drug/vaccine 

delivery

Smart nanoimplants

Major

Quantum Computing

Wireless Cloud Computing

Aging model and human performance 

enhancement

Millipede memory

Holographic data storage

Wireless transport of energy

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Trends in Nanotechnology

Smart materials with nano films, structures

Integration of functions and structure in membranes, fabrics, fibers, self powered entities, biomimetic materials

New environmental leaps in performance: e.g. water filtration and purification, biocidals, bioremediation and decontamination

Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities – nano‐electro‐mechanical systems

Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and communications capabilities

Energy and power efficiencies improvements, battery power management

Smart dust capability for widespread human , environments surveillance

Computational devices embedded in consumer, commercial goods

Functional, programmable nanostructures for controlled drug delivery, performance of implants, protheses

New devices, building materials and fabrics that incorporate nano film solar power and are climate responsive

Trends in Biotechnology

Control, improvements in living organisms

Bio‐sensing at the micro and nano level, micro and nano electromechanical systems

Integration with wireless, RFID, photonics‐molecular level cameras

Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants and protheses

Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro capacities

Rapid scalable bio‐assays for molecule ID, medical diagnosis and forensics

Personalized medicine using large data sets of patient information, disease statistics, gene sequences and genotypes

Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen carriers

In silico‐ computer testing and comprehensive modelling for drug characteristics, side effects and receptor simulation – lab on chip

Molecular recognition –targeted drug delivery to organs, tumours

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Trends in Information Technology & Ambient Intelligence (ICT)

Progress toward ubiquitous access and embedded systems

Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer‐ to peer functionality, pervasive social networks

Continued migration towards device and functional convergence 

Info‐based 3D models and manufactured structures, distributed fabrication

Broader object based nodes and networks ‐ Smart and connected systems

Pervasive sensor  networks ‐ dynamic simulation and modelling;

Gaming for personal and organizational decisions, risk abatement and learning

Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more powerful encryption, quantum information

Sustained info markets growth for surveillance, sensor networks, tracking capacities,  nano‐electromechanical systems  

Wearable, implantable personalized micro‐nano‐bio info sensors with data and communications capabilities

22

Nanoantennas,  Detection/sensing, plasmonics, system integration

Human performance enhancement, Protection, Battle space, Ethics 

Nanophotonics,  Detection/sensing, nm detection, system integration

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Technology Gaps

Biointerfaces – effective and robust integration of biological and engineered systems.Biodetection – sensitivity and broad‐spectrum sampling capabilities of autonomous detection systems.

Molecular signature development and bioinformatics analyses for broad‐spectrum threat characterization and countermeasures.Biotic‐abiotic interface development for diagnostics, sensor design and cognitive augmentation.Systemic host bioresponse ‐rapid recognition/differentiation of chem.‐bio threat exposure.Miniaturization of multiple analytical systems on a single platform ‐ sensor network.

Bioforensics – physico‐chemical characterization of engineered and emerging biothreatsBiotoxicity of NanomaterialsSelf Sustaining, self‐healing, and adaptive nanomaterialsSample in/Answer out – sensor devices and systemsPortability – light weight, autonomous, bi‐directional capabilityMultiplexing, parallel processing and Networking solutionsStand‐alone  (bio) Energy harvesting 

3D Terabit Memory

Ultra Sensitive Bio-sensorNano Fluidic Circuits

Ultra Compact light source & integrated photonics

Goal ‐SOC, NOC, NP‐OIC, SoF

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Summary and Way Forward   

Convergence Activities – DELPHI, Data mining, and Outreach

CONUS and OCONUS outreach

Convergence of fields for revolutionary  vs. evolutionary approach

Identified Significant Gaps

Specific RecommendationChem.‐bio sensing  with high specificity and selectivity using nanomaterials 

Nanofiber based composite material for lightweight, breathable, e‐textile and wearable electronics textile.

Timed  and targeted release of drugs

Regenerative medicine/tissue engineering & NanoMedicine

Prevention, Diagnosis, and Therapy –more sensitive detection technologies

Application specific recommendations

Predictive intelligence platform

CONUS Outreach 

SME

Advisers

S&T Conf Advisers

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OCONUS Outreach 

27

SME

28

Location, Key People and Experts