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RITD UNECA, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA May 31 2011 STUDY ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF INTER-RECs’ FREE TRADE AREAS IN AFRICA DRAWING ON LESSONS FROM THE COMESA-SADC-EAC FTA EXPERIENCE

RITD UNECA, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA May 31 2011

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STUDY ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF INTER-RECs’ FREE TRADE AREAS IN AFRICA DRAWING ON LESSONS FROM THE COMESA-SADC-EAC FTA EXPERIENCE . RITD UNECA, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA May 31 2011. Background. AU creation of RECs as pillars for integration and development in Africa - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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RITD UNECA, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA

May 31 2011

STUDY ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF INTER-RECs FREE TRADE AREAS IN AFRICA DRAWING ON LESSONS FROM THE COMESA-SADC-EAC FTA EXPERIENCE

1BackgroundAU creation of RECs as pillars for integration and development in AfricaHence the creation of five RECs namely UMA) in the North, ECOWAS in the West, EAC in the East, ECCAS in Central Africa, and (SADC) in the South. Three more RECs namely COMESA, Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD), and (IGAD) have received the AU endorsement and have joined the earlier five to bring the AU sponsored RECs to eight. The Lagos Plan of Action of 1980 prescribed the use of the (RECs) as building blocks for regional integration in Africa

BackgroundThe Abuja Treaty of 1991 endorsed the use of RECs for regional integrationNEPAD formed in 2001 as a strategy for faster development through regional economic integration further buttresses Africas bid to accelerate the pace of developmentUNECA, the AUC and the AfDB all support these development initiatives as Africas benchmark achievements and springboards for economic transformation and integration in Africa and for launching Africa into the global geo-politics and economyAfrican leaders and development pundits believe that increased trade ties among RECs through the use of inter-RECs FTAs will quickly metamorphose into a Grand intra-Africa FTA to boost intra-Africa trade to quickly realize the continental dream of an African Economic Community and Common Market.

IntroductionTrade has emerged as a formidable instrument for inter-regional cooperation However, Africas political and socio-economic upheavals have impaired its capacity and capability to effectively use trade as a veritable instrument of economic growth for her developmentThe immediate post-independence era saw a gradual disintegration of these trans-regional infrastructural facilities owing to perceived attempts at establishing national identity and sovereignty. Currently new political agendas and paradigm shift towards recreating closer ties and cooperation between member countries of regional economic blocs have emergedThe formation of the Organization for African Unity (OAU) in 1963 and its later transformation to African Union (AU) in 2001 is one of such efforts at enhancing the continent's economic prosperity

IntroductionEfforts to fast-track development through regional integration region saw the emergence of more RECs along diverse lines that include common currency affiliations, common language, identical colonial history, and homogeneous geo-political locationsThe new formations have created conditions for multiple memberships in the RECs, thereby creating new problems in the wake of new orientations in the pursuit of regional integration in the continentThe RECs are now seeking closer cooperation through intra- and inter-REC trade by forming trading blocs for faster regional integration and to speed up the establishment of an African Common MarketThe formation of COMESA and CEN-SAD to cover wider areas and to include more states from existing RECs demonstrates further efforts by African states to expand the frontiers of regional cooperation in trade as a strategy for faster regional integrationThe AU Ministers of Trade, at their 6th Ordinary Session in Kigali in November 2010, after due assessment of the progress made in the implementation of FTAs and Customs Unions in the various RECs, and guided by the views expressed by ECA, AU and AfDB (2010) in their joint publication - Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV (ARIA IV), recommended the fast-tracking of the establishment of an African FTAIntroductionThe EAC, COMESA and SADC Tripartite Summit of October 2008 and the resultant Tripartite FTA Agreement, demonstrate the compelling desire for RECs to forge inter-REC cooperation in trade to enhance regional integration and overall economic emancipation of the continentThe 26 in the three RECs have a combined population of 527 million people, a total GDP of US $624 billion, and GDP per capita of US$1,184 (Newsline, 2010), over 58% contribution to GDP, and 57% of the total population of the African Union (COMESA, EAC and SADC, 2009: Ministry of East African Community, 2010) The Tripartite FTA is to be established on tariff-free, quota-free, exemption-free, and should adopt the principle of variable geometry by simply combining the existing FTAs of COMESA, EAC and SADC into a single FTA (COMESA, EAC and SADC, 2011) The Inter-REC FTA is expected to cushion and control internal and external trading shocks; enlarge markets for goods and services for Member States; increase the critical mass of trading facilities; eliminate the problem of multiple memberships; promote inter-REC and intra-African trade; and enhance the economic and social wellbeing of the people in the regionThe initiative takes place against the backdrop of numerous obstacles to trade internally and externally. Internally, there are protracted political unrests; poor infrastructure including low level of information and communication technology (ICT); paucity of skilled human capacity; lack of political will; complexity of the African trading environment especially with multiple memberships in RECs; and limited domestic capital. Externally, Africa lacks attractiveness for foreign capital and investment flows and the continent remains overly marginalised in the globalized and international scheme of things especially in trade.The Inter RECs FTA seeks to address these problems by aiming at a larger market with prospects for economies of scale.This report presents and analyzes the prospects, challenges and possible impacts of establishing inter-RECs FTAs drawing from the experience so far in establishing the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA.

6IntroductionThe initiative takes place against the backdrop of numerous obstacles to trade imposed by both internal and external forces. Internally, there have been protracted political unrests; poor infrastructure including low level of information and communication technology (ICT); paucity of skilled human capacity; lack of political will; complexity of the African trading environment especially with multiple memberships in RECs; and limited domestic capital. Externally, Africa lacks sufficient attractiveness for foreign capital and investment flows. In addition, the continent remains overly marginalised in the globalized and international scheme of things especially in tradeIntroductionThe study assessed the progress so far made in the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA; identify the challenges and bottlenecks in the process; determine the prospects of other RECs replicating the Tripartite FTA example to form other FTAs; and the potentials of the new FTAs converging to form a Grand Intra-Africa FTA to boost intra-Africa trade.It made recommendations on how to surmount the challenges and obstacles in using inter-REC FTAs to fast-track the formation of the intra-Africa FTA and customs union to achieve the goal of an African Economic Community in line with the Abuja TreatyAims and ObjectivesThis study has been undertaken to analyze the potential impact of inter-RECs FTA on African economies, the challenges , the costs, as well as the political and legal implications of the undertakingIt further assessed the effect on the inter-RECs FTAs of the on-going Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) that African countries are currently negotiating with the European Union. The outcome of the study is expected to guide Member States of the African Union in making sound decisions on joining the on-going inter-RECs FTA or in establishing new ones.It is hoped that the inter-RECs FTAs will eventually merge to form a Grand intra-Africa FTA

Specific ObjectivesConduct an overall assessment of the procedure in establishing inter-RECs FTA and the challenges and benefits by drawing from the experience of the on-going COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA s.Assess and analyze trade liberalization and facilitation efforts of the RECs (including progress in the establishment of free trade areas and customs unions) and their implications for intra-African trade.Assess and analyze the likely direction of intra-Africa trade sis following the establishment of inter-RECs FTAs.Assess and make proposals for the establishment of inter-RECs FTAs drawing from the experience in the COMESA-EAC-SADC Single FTA.Provide workable recommendations and clear action plans for the establishment of the inter-RECs FTA based on the assessments. Analyze government policies and their impact on the inter-RECs FTAs.Outline the potential economic, social, legal as well as political implications of African Member States joining the inter-RECs FTAs. Discuss the impact of the inter-RECs FTA on African economies including rules of origin, revenues, and customs laws.Assess the implications of the on-ongoing EPA negotiations on the inter-RECs FTAs in Africa.

JustificationThe Tripartite RECs is a practical demonstration of an action plan that is geared towards the implementation of the Lagos Plan of Action for regional integration and the Abuja Treaty that prescribed the establishment of African Economic Community by 2028 (Madakufamba, 2008). Inter-RECs FTAs represent ideal interventionist models for addressing most of Africas perennial trade and regional integration challengesInter-RECs FTAs will promote customs cooperation and trade facilitation; harmonization and coordination of industrial and health standards;; use of simpler and straightforward rules of origin, promote value added in production; relaxation of restrictions on movement of business persons; enhance the use of ICT; development of the cultural industries ; and develop sector strategies to increase the productive capacity of regions . Inter-RECs FTAs will further improve regional infrastructure and consolidate regional markets through improved interconnectivity in all forms of transport and communication as well as promote sustainable energy supply to enhance the regions competitiveness. Finally, through liberalization, harmonization, and facilitation in trade, inter-RECs FTAs would eliminate the complex problem posed by multiple memberships, imposition of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), and the imbalances in trade and trading capacities (COMESA, EAC and SADC, 2010b)Theoretical Concept

Figure 1. Hypothetical Structure of Proposed FTAsMethodologyTypes of DataData Collection TechniquesSampling TechniqueThe SurveySADC Gaborone COMESA - LusakaEAC ArushaTrade Ministries in Nairobi and PretoriaMethod of Data AnalysisResults and DiscussionsProcedures and Experience in Establishing inter-RECs FTAAfter the Tripartite Summit in Kampala, Uganda on 22 October 2008 the governments of the three RECs commissioned a team of consultants to undertake a study on the establishment of the single FTA;A Task Force was constituted from the three RECs to complement the work of the consultants. After 14 months of the Summit, the Task Force produced a Draft Report, Draft Tripartite FTA Agreement with 14 AnnexesAnnexesAnnex Table 1. Tripartite Agreement AnnexesAnnex 1. Illustrative List of Non Tariff BarriersAnnex 2. Rules of OriginAnnex 3. Customs CooperationAnnex 4. Transit Trade and Transit FacilitiesAnnex 5. Trade RemediesAnnex 6. Competition Policy and LawAnnex 7. Standardization, Metrology, Accreditation and Conformity AssessmentAnnex 8. Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) MeasuresAnnex 9. Movement of Business PersonsAnnex 10.Intellectual Property RightsAnnex 11.Guidelines for Services NegotiationsAnnex 12.Trade Development and Competitiveness MeasuresAnnex 13. Dispute SettlementAnnex 14.Institutional ArrangementsChallenges and Potentials in Establishing inter-RECs FTA

Challenges Low Level of TechnologyMultiple and Overlapping Memberships (See Figure s 2, 3 and 4) Varying Stages of Economic Integration among RECsMultiple and Undifferentiated ProductsLack of Political Will Limited Human Capacity Financial Constraint

ECCAS AngolaSao Tome and Principe

CEMACCameroon, Chad, CAR, Congo Brazzaville, Equatorial GuineaCEPGLBurundi, DRC, Rwanda

Figure 3. Member States of ECCAS, CEMAC and ECCASUMA

AlgeriaCEN-SADCAR, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Libya, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia

LibyaMoroccoTunisiaECOWAS

Guinea Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Cape Verde Nigeria, Sierra Leone

MauritaniaUEMOA:Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote dIvoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, TogoFigure 4. Member States of CEN-SAD, UMA, ECOWAS and UEMOA Challenges and Potentials in Establishing inter-RECs FTAPotentialsLarger Markets, Specialization and Industrialization, and Economies of Scale (Example of Kenyas Sugar Industry) Trade Liberalization AchievementsInfrastructural Development

Trade Liberalization and Facilitation Efforts of RECs and their Impacts on Intra-Africa TradeTrade LiberalizationProgress has been made in the removals of tariffs barriers through legislationNot much progress has been made on NTBs because most of them (corruption, bribery, piracy, road blocks) are not subject to legislation

Trade Liberalization and Facilitation Efforts of RECs and their Impacts on Intra-Africa TradeTrade FacilitationThe primary goal of trade facilitation is to reduce the transaction cost and complexity of international trade for business and improve the trading environment in a region, with a view to optimizing efficiency and effectiveness in government control and revenue collection (COMESA, EAC and SADC, 2009)Inter-RECs FTA, hopes to ensure that any insurance taken in one country should be used in other countries in the FTA.Role of the Customs (See Figures 7a and 7b

Figure 7a: Completing Customs CertificatesFigure 7a: Completing Customs Certificates Figure 7a: Completing Customs Certificates

Figure 7b: Access Granted with Completed CertificatesTrade Liberalization and Facilitation Efforts of RECs and their Impacts on Intra-Africa TradeTrade Facilitation The Partner RECs have agreed to:Reduce the cost of processing documents and volume of paper work required for trade among Member States.Ensure that the nature and volume of information required for trade within the FTA does not adversely affect the economic development of or trade among the Member States.Adopt common standards of trade procedures within the free trade area where international requirements do not suit the conditions prevailing among Member States.Ensure adequate coordination between trade and transport facilitation within the FTA.Keeping under review procedures adopted in international trade and transport with a view to simplifying and adopting them.Collect and disseminate information on international development regarding trade facilitation.Promote the development and adoption of common solutions to problems in trade facilitation instruments.Initiate and promote the establishment of joint programmes, for the training of personnel engaged in trade facilitation.Establish and promote one-stop border posts (OSBPs).

Trade Liberalization and Facilitation Efforts of RECs and their Impacts on Intra-Africa TradeTrade FacilitationInfrastructure -includes transport infrastructure such as roads, railways, waterways and airways; energy (variety of exploitable energy - oil, gas, coal, and hydro and solar energy); ICT, etc. The North-South Corridor (NSC) Programme receives major focusFunding for Infrastructure DevelopmentThe three RECs organized a High Level Conference on the North-South Corridor (NSC) in Lusaka, Zambia from 6-7 April 2009. The NSC Programme is a flagship programme of the Tripartite FTA programme. It is a Model Aid for Trade Programme engineered by the Tripartite FTA programme to implement an economic corridor-based approach to trade facilitation and reduce the costs of cross-border trade in the sub-region. Pledges for prioritized projects at the conference amounted to US$ 1.2 billion. The DFID is reported to have given UK 67 million in support of the prioritized NSC projectTrade Liberalization and Facilitation Efforts of RECs and their Impacts on Intra-Africa TradeFundingThe Tripartite Partner RECs, in collaboration with IGAD organized a major infrastructure development conference in Nairobi on 28th and 29th October, 2010 with financial support from PRO-INVEST. Captioned Linking up Eastern and Southern Africa for Sustainable Economic Development Guidelines on the Establishment of Inter-RECs FTA with Emphasis on the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTADefine Objectives and PrinciplesDefine Implementation ProceduresConsult Stakeholders Evaluation/Assessment and CommentsA careful assessment of the processes and achievements of the Tripartite vis a vis its set objectives and principles shows significant divergences. Some of these deviations are highlighted to serve as a guide for the Tripartite operatives in future and for RECs that will undertake the establishment of other inter-RECs FTAs.There is a general feeling that the arrangement and the procedure in setting up the Tripartite FTA might not have given sufficient thought to the cost, time, and resource demands of the programme at its inception.The decision making process for the establishment adopted a top-down instead of a bottom-up approach. Eventually, trying to communicate the idea to the grassroots always faces problems of acceptability and might not receive adequate cooperation. The schedule of activities is somewhat ambitious in terms of the deliverables and the time within which to achieve them. The timelines are considered too tight for an FTA of that magnitude. (DTI, Pers Comm). The deadlines in delivering the outputs of the Road Map have not been met owing probably due to the tightness of the timelines. For example, consultations on the revised tripartite document slated for January 2011 could not hold because Member States had not all submitted their comments on the revised document.

Guidelines on the Establishment of Inter-RECs FTA with Emphasis on the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTAEvaluation/Assessment and CommentsThe Second Tripartite Summit which was slated for the first quarter of 2011 could not be held and has now been shifted to the second quarter. The launching of the Draft Agreement for negotiations which is to take place during the Second Tripartite Summit is therefore delayed. Similarly, the date for implementation of the Tripartite FTA which was originally slated for 1st January 2012 has now been shifted to 1st January 2013.The original plan to set up the Tripartite FTA by combining the three existing FTAs seems to have been shelved as the formation seems to have started from the scratch. Second, it appears that the principle of variable geometry, which is prescribed, seems to have been ignored. The Tripartite FTA Units are not fully established and functional at the REC Secretariats and this poses a problem in the implementation process.The non-tariff barriers are difficult to identify and eliminate and they vary widely across states and regions and exist on land, sea and air.

Expected Direction of Intra-Africa Trade with Inter-RECs FTA

Larger Market for goods and servicesEconomies of ScaleIncreased Regional and International Trade (See Figure 8)Figure 8. Trend in the share of intra-Africa trade in COMESA, EAC and SADCSource Data: UNCTA. 2010

Costs and Benefits in Establishing inter-RECs FTA

Costs of IntegrationDirect costs of providing infrastructurePossible job losses from mergers and downsizingRevenue losses from tariff removals or reductionsBenefits from IntegrationEconomies of scaleBetter competitivenessPossible increase in employmentEquity in income distribution by adequately compensating losers34Government Policies and their Impact on the Inter-RECs FTAProtectionist PolicyInfluence of CultureMultiple and Overlapping Memberships

Economic, Social, Legal and Political Implications of Joining the Inter-RECs FTAs

EconomicSocialLegalPolitical Impact of Inter-RECs FTA on African Economies with Respect to Rules of Origin, Revenues, and Customs LawsRules of OriginRevenueCustoms Laws

Implications of the On-going EPA Negotiations on the Inter-RECs FTA.

EU Stand on the NegotiationsPositioning Africa in the Negotiation FrameworkAfrican Union Stand

ConclusionsThe Tripartite FTA has set the paceThe prospects of others joining are high and the conditions are favourableThere could be challenges but they are surmountableStrong political will is needed to achieve successThe expected benefits outweigh the costs and these make the initiative worthwhile and desirableInter RECs FTA if it gives rise to a Grand Africa FTA and Customs Union will quicken the realization of Abuja Treaty on African Economic CommunityRecommendationsThe principle of variable geometry should form the basis for establishing the inter-RECs FTAs. In what can be termed the coalition of the ready and willing , the states that meet the requirements for immediate membership within the stipulated time frame should form the FTA. Other states willing to join but have not met the conditions can join later when they fulfill the requirements. This will help speed up the process.Other RECs should be vigorously sensitized to use the experience gained from the Tripartite FTA to form other inter-RECs FTAs and through those FTAs form a Grand African FTA and customs union.The establishment of the new FTAs should take advantage of any f symmetrical or homogenous conditions such as common culture and language, common currency, level of trade liberalization and commonality in trade and trade facilitations such as connectivity in transport, energy and information and communication technology. Starting from areas of commonality will reduce the complexity and costs in money and time to be spent in achieving the goal. In establishing the inter-RECs FTAs, it is vital to be realistic and avoid ambitious, costly and complex formations. It is advisable to adopt simple, productive, and cost-effective models of integration through development projects based on the regions comparative and competitive advantages in producing the products and in facilitating their imports, exports and distribution.

On international negotiations with particular reference to the EUs EPA and the WTO trade negotiations, the African Union Commission should as a matter of urgency develop a common African stand and set of rules and conditions on all the issues that relate to Africa and that might impact significantly on the continents development. The set of rules and conditions will form the benchmark for Africa which all African states should use as tools for negotiations. In this way, Africa will be proactive and not reactive in global and multilateral negotiations.The manpower shortage in both quality and quantity and their significant contribution to the delays and lagging behind in the implementation process should be addressed by incorporating capacity building in the inter-REC and the intra-Africa FTA Agreements.

40Recommendations8.While the financial support from overseas partners, especially in the infrastructural development is appreciated, the danger of Africa ceding much authority to and becoming over dependent on these foreign agencies cannot be overlooked. It is therefore expedient for Africa to start looking inwards in raising funds for its projects. They can do this through a well organized and coordinated tax system on governments and through the involvement of the private sector.9. A thorough situation analysis should always precede the launching of a programme to determine the feasibility and viability of the programme and should include the assessment of quantum of resources available for the execution and the time frame over which to execute the programme. Allowance should be made about contingencies so that programmes do not face delays or the dangers of running out of funds or time midstream. 10.Partners in the FTA should ensure that the negotiations result in a win-win situation for Member States and the participating RECs. Otherwise unfair treatment leading to inequitable distribution of losses or gains will lead to disenfranchisement and unwillingness to cooperate.11. Compensation and budgetary support as a result of revenue loss occasioned by the inter-RECs FTA agreements should be a once-off exercise and time bound to avoid the creation of indolence and over indulgence of states, which could breed inefficiency and uncompetitive trading regimes.12. Trade agreements in an FTA should prescribe discriminatory interventions in investments and infrastructural development with the aim of supporting highly disadvantaged states and regions as a way to boost their confidence and guarantee fairness. 13. A bottom-up rather than top-down approach should be adopted to ensure that all stakeholders especially those at the grassroots are involved in the planning and conceptualization stage of the programme. This will also correct the disruptive effects encountered in using ministers as programme implementation whose frequent turnovers cause projects built around them to be abandoned or delayed.

Action PlanStatement of the GoalThe goal is to achieve a Grand Africa FTA by 31 December 2013IMPLEMENTATIONEVALUATIONWhat is to be done?By whom and when?What resources are available?What determines progress?How and when to gather evidence?Two more inter-RECs FTA to be formed to add to the on-going Tripartite FTA1. ECCAS, CEMAC and CEPGL to do the same by the same date (Figure 7a)2. CEN-SAD, AMU, ECOWAS and UEMOA to meet and discuss by September 2011The Secretariats of the RECs to be used as coordinating unitsMonthly scheduled meetingsDates and minutes of the scheduled meetingsThe three inter-RECs FTAs hold a Summit to establish a Task Force and delegate authority to them to oversee the integrationThe Task Force for the three inter-RECs FTAs to meet prepare integration plan by March 2012The Secretariats of the three inter-RECs FTAs to coordinate the integration of the three inter-RECs FTAsSummit and subsequent monthly meeting schedules of the three inter-RECs FTAsMeeting dates and minutes of the meetingsTask Force to prepare Agreement and Roadmap for the implementation of the Grand Africa FTAThe Task Force composed of representatives from the three inter-REC FTAs to prepare Draft Agreement by December 2012.Inter-RECs FTA personnel and facilities as well as private sector, and donor technical and financial supportAttendance in meetings of all participants and stakeholders.Increased number of donor and private sector participation and commitmentsAmount of pledged and collected from fund drives, records of all meetings held and their dates. Presentation of the Draft Agreement by the inter-RECs FTA Joint Task Force for approvalInter-RECs FTA Joint Task Force in June 2012Inter-RECs FTA Task Force, inter-RECs FTA personnel and facilities, and donorsPublished meeting schedules.Minutes and dates of meetings; funds and technical support procuredReview of the Grand FTA Draft AgreementsPartner Inter-RECs FTAs, RECs within the inter-REC FTAs, and the Member States on December 31, 2012RECs and inter-REC FTA Secretariats and personnel, private sector, and donorsPromotions, sensitization programmes, advertisements, and meetingsPublished programs in daily or weekly papers, minutes and dates of monthly meetings, Launching of the Grand Africa FTA Draft AgreementThe Joint inter-RECs Task Force in June 30 2013Political leaders, inter-RECs FTA personnel, inter-RECs FTA facilities.Schedule of meetings leading to the launching.Copy of The Draft Agreement, brochure for the launching, report on the launchingCommencement of implementation All three inter-RECs FTA and their Member States on 31 December 2013The Secretariats of the three inter-RECs FTAsLocation and facilities designated for the Grand Africa FTAPhysical structures, equipment and personnel allocated to the Grand Africa FTAI THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION