Risk Type - 'if you can't measure it you can't manage it

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Geoff Trickey, Managing Director at Psychological Consultancy Ltd., presents at the Project Zone Conference in Frankfurt in March 2013.

Transcript

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    RISK TYPEYou cant manage it if you cant measure it

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    Project management expertise Knowledge

    Project Management Body of (PMBOK)/ Application Area Knowledge Skills

    General Management/ Project Environment Management Methodology

    Work breakdown structures/ Critical path analysis/ Earned value management/ Agile Lean Kanban and Six Sigma techniques

    Qualifications Prince2/ ISEB/ APM/ MSP

    StandardsISO/ ANSI/ ASTM/ AGA/ MTS/ AWS ARE/ IAAR/ RABQSA

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    PM qualifications

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    Project management expertise Methodology

    Work breakdown structures

    Critical path analysis

    Earned value management

    Agile Lean Kanban and Six Sigma techniques

    Software

    Issue tracking systems (ITS)

    Scheduling

    Project Portfolio Management (PPM)

    Resource management systems (RMS)

    Document management system (DMS)

    Work Flow Systems

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    PM knowledge areas

    1. Project Integration Management 2. Project Scope Management 3. Project Time Management 4. Project Cost Management 5. Project Quality Management 6. Project Human Resource Management 7. Project Communications Management 8. Project Risk Management 9. Project Procurement Management 10. Project Stakeholders Management

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    Problem solved?

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    Sarah Intense: fearful, anxious, Pessimistic, self-doubting Worried, emotional, passionate Moody, changeable, irritable, mistrustful, Hates uncertainty (presume dangerous until proved otherwise) Expects the worst Fast driving (involuntary flinching, gasping and whimpering) Flying (would buy a parachute if she could) Sudden noises, disappointment, crossing roads, or as drivers, Stressed, prone to panic, over-react, Expects NOT to be liked, presume not to be accepted All good things must come to an end

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    Henry Does nothing without approval Organises everything..to the very last detail Plans everything well ahead Always has a back-up plan Suspicious of anything new Dislikes change Follows all the rules Requires training and qualifications for everything Inflexible Unsettled by ambiguity Respects tradition A place for everything and everything in its place

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    Juliette Impulsive Challenging Spontaneous Excitement seeking Uninhibited Imaginative Easily bored Distractible Individualistic Dismissive of petty rules Embraces change Sees uncertainty as opportunity Unpredictable A rolling stone gathers no moss

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    Peter Composed, placid Even tempered Serene, calm Utterly imperturbable Stress tolerant Poised Tranquil Unemotional Fearless Optimistic Confident Self-assured Phlegmatic All's for the best in the best of all possible worlds

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    Whats in the box?

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    Human Factors in the Doldrums

    Human Factor Risk Assessment has been:1.Based on a snap shot of attitudes 2.Varied approaches with no consensus3.Muddled and inconsistent

    Content: temperament? situation? circumstances?Methodology: definitions? models? taxonomies?

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    1. RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

    1. RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

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    Risk & Personality

    The significance of FFM Defining the domain Consensus at last Consistent over working life Deeply rooted

    - Emotional- Extravert- Agreeable- Prudent- Open-minded

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    Risk Elements of Personality Adventurous Apprehensive Attachment Careless Compliant Conforming Deliberate Emotional decision making Excitement seeking Focused

    Forgiving Impulsive Methodical Optimistic Patient Perfectionist Reckless Resilient Sentimental Spontaneous Trusting

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    The Two Axes of Risk-Taking

    Fear:Nervous v FearlessApprehensive v RelaxedBrittle v FlexiblePessimistic v OptimisticVulnerable v DaringStressed v Calm

    Impulsivity:Prudent v CarefreeCompliant v ChallengingConsistent v UnpredictableDetailed v VaguePlanned v ImpulsiveOrganised v Approximate

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    Four pure Risk Types.

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    .plus four complex Risk Types

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    The Risk-Type Compass

    Continuous spectrum

    Adjacent Risk Types blend

    Facing Risk Types opposites

    Central 10% Typical

    Strongest at the edge

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    Eight Risk Types SPONTANEOUS

    Uninhibited, excitable, unpredictable and distraught when things go wrong.

    INTENSE

    Enthusiastic and committed, but pessimistic and easily defeated by set-backs.

    WARY

    Well organised but, anxious and fearful of failure they passionately seek to control.

    PRUDENT

    Cautious, self-controlled and most comfortable with continuity and familiarity.

    DELIBERATE

    Imperturbable, confident and systematic they are fearless and well prepared.

    COMPOSED

    Calm, cool headed and optimistic they seeming oblivious to risk.

    ADVENTUROUS

    Calm and unemotional but impulsive, daring and up for any challenge.

    CAREFREE

    Unconventional and excitement seeking, their imprudence makes life exciting.

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    Prevalence of Risk Types

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    2. A CRUCIAL DISTINCTION

    2. A CRUCIAL DISTINCTION

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    Attitudes, the false lead Attitudes have causes, they are influenced

    Attitudes to disability Attitudes to seat belts Attitudes to drink-driving Attitudes to financial risk

    Attitudes are more effect than cause

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    Type, Attitude & Behaviour

    RISK TYPE

    BEHAVIOUR

    RISK ATTITUDE

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    Risk Type Aspect of temperament Deeply rooted Persistent Pervasive Measurable Long term prediction

    Kaleidoscopic Variable Superficial Readily influenced Not measurable Unpredictable

    Risk Attitude

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    Risk Attitudes

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    Risk Tolerance Index (RTi)

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    3. RESEARCH REPORT ROAD MAP

    3. SOME RESEARCH FINDINGS

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    Our IT Sample

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    Our Engineer Sample

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    Our Recruiter Sample

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    Our Auditor Sample

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    4. RELEVANCE & APPLICATIONS

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    Spheres of Application

    Project Management Team Building Risk Management Compliance Underwriting

    Coaching Auditor Certification Financial Advising Trader development Risk Culture

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    Individual Level Employment Screening Re-deployment Personal development Advising in financial services

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    Team/ Group Level Risky shift Risk polarisation phenomenon

    Team self-awarenessand awareness of others

    Team dynamics/ relationships/ communications

    Team risk balance

    Decision-making

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    Organisational Level The Risk-Type Compass in survey mode:

    The Risk Culture (monolithic or mosaic?)

    The Risk Landscape

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    Risk Landscape

    RTi 96THE BOARD EXEC IIEXEC I

    SALES

    PROMO

    HR

    ACCOUNTS

    FINANCE

    L&DRec

    RISK & COMPLIANCE

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    Risk and Compliance Team

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    Individual Summary"

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    Organisational Survey Risk Map

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    Positive Risk Management The world needs risk takers:

    Entrepreneurs Creatives Sales people Heroes Challengers of the status quo

    Enron vs Kodak two ways to fail Risk Culture & Friendly Fire Manage for more risk as well as for less?

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    The End WEBINAR: 16th April at 8.00am BST & 9.00am

    CEST. Also 4.00pm BST & 5.00pm CEST

    Tel: +44 (0)1892 559540Email: info@psychological-consultancy.com

    www.psychological-consultancy.comLinkedIn Group Risk Type Compass