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Risk

Risk Assessment Overv iew

Dr. Att ia Hus sien Gomaa

Maintenance Engin eer ing Cons ultant

2008

Engin eer ing s ervice - Am erican Un iversi ty in Cairo (AUC)

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Risk 2Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007

Objectives:

Minimize the risk of failures/hazards

Minimize Hazard (HSE effect)

Maximum Operation Efficiency

Optimal Program (Maintenance,

Inspection, Job, item) Maximize Reliability & Availability

Minimize Unplanned/Planned

Minimize Downtime

Minimize Cost

Risk Assessment

(Proact ive Approach)

It is a powerfu l systemat ic methodologyto m inim ize the risk of failure/hazards

for cr i t ical act iv i t ies o r i tems o r sys tems

Cost

Balance

Safety &

Quality

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Risk 3Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007

Modern Approaches: (System level)

Risk Based Maintenance - Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)Optimal maintenance Program

Risk Based Inspection (RBI)

Optimal inspection Program

Classical Approaches: (Item level) Application Root Cause Analysis (RCA) Item hazard

Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Item failure

Job Safety Analysis (JSA) Job hazard

Hazard Operation Study (HAZOP) Design hazard

Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis (FMEA) Failure hazard

Risk Assessment Approaches

(Proact ive Approach)

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Risk 4Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007

Top 5 Targets

(2)To

prevent

failures/

Hazards

(3)To

discover

hidden

failures/Hazards

(4)To

detect

early

Failures/Hazards

(5)To

Minimize

the r isk of

failures/Hazards

(1)To

correct

failures/

Hazards

Reactive

Pol icy 80 Proact ive

Pol icy >15

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Risk

Why Risk Assessment?

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Risk 6Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007

Causes Of Inc idents %:

1) 30% Poor Maintenance & Insp ect ion25% Backlog, 20% Qual ity, 15% Spares, 20% Planning & Feedback,

5% Poor housekeeping, 15% Others

2) 25% Process & Operator error

90% Unsafe acts & 10% Unsafe conditions such as poor layout

3) 20% Poor Management (Process, HSE, Maintenanc e, .. etc.)

70% Information, Planning & Control, 20% Awareness & Culture, 10% others

4) 15% Design Deficiency

50% Design error, 35% Mater ials, 15% others

5) 10% Oth ers

Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents

Based on d ata from 5 Egypt ian Companies

Last 10 years Acc ident & Incident History & Brain Storming

Prepared b y Dr. Att ia Gomaa, 2007, Inpr int.

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7/9Risk 7Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007

80%

12%

5% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Human factors Process

factors

Enviromental

factors

Others

Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents

Based on d ata from 5 Egypt ian Companies

Last 10 years Acc ident & Incident History & Brain Storming

Prepared b y Dr. Att ia Gomaa, 2007, Inpr int.

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8/9Risk 8Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007

%Main Item

301) Piping systems

252) Tanks

83) Heat Exchangers

74) Valves

55) Towers46) Compressors

37) Pumps

28) Gages

16Others100Total

Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents

Based on data from 5 Egypt ian Companies

Last 10 years Acc ident & Incident History & Brain Storming

Prepared b y Dr. Att ia Gomaa, 2007, Inp rint.

Crit ical Items

(A

Ru le 80/20)

Failure/Hazard

Improvement:

RCA

FMEA

RCM

RBI

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