RICS Just Imagine RICS Strategic Foresight 2030 report May 2011

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  • JustImagine!

    RICSStrategicForesight2030

    ProfessorJohnSRatcliffe

    ReportMay2011

  • TheAuthor

    JohnSRatcliffe

    JohnRatcliffeisaCharteredSurveyorandProfessorofStrategicForesightatTheHenleyBusiness

    School,UniversityofReadingandVisitingProfessorofBuiltEnvironmentFuturesattheUniversity

    Salford.

    Forover15years,ProfessorRatcliffehasacquiredaparticularexpertiseandreputationinthe

    FuturesStudiesfield,withspecialreferencetorealestatestrategyandthesustainabledevelopment

    ofcityregions.In2003heestablishedTheFuturesAcademywhichhasactedasaresearchand

    consultancypracticetocountries,cities,corporations,collegesandcommunitiesaroundtheworld.

    From2005to2007hewastheelectedSecretaryGeneraloftheWorldFuturesStudiesFederation,

    theglobalbodyforacademicfuturists,andheiscurrentlyVicePresidentoftheEuropeanFuturists

    Conference,theregionalorganisationforprofessionalfuturists.HeisalsoaConsultanttoShaping

    Tomorrow,andanAssociateofthefuturesconsultancyOutsightsintheUK.

    Acknowledgements

    Itwouldbeinvidioustosingleoutanyparticularindividualsfromthescoresofpeoplewho

    contributedtothisstudy.Theyarelistedattheend,andIamgratefultothemall.Tribute,

    however,mustbepaidtotwocolleagueswithoutwhosehelpandsupportthisreportwouldsimply

    nothavebeenproduced.First,DanCook,HeadofGlobalStrategyandPlanningatRICS.And

    second,LukeRatcliffe,DirectorofOperationsatTheFuturesAcademy.Myheartfeltthankstoboth.

    JohnRatcliffe

    May2011

    ClivedenGages

    Buckinghamshire

    UK

    Theobjectiveisnottoforecastthefuture,fornoonecantellwhatthe

    futurewillbe.TheobjectiveistotakeresponsibilityasanInstitution

    forthefutureoftheprofession.

    2 JustImagine!

  • CONTENTS

    PRELUDE............................................................................................................................. 6

    Exordium.............................................................................................................................................6

    AGrandTransformation..............................................................................................................7

    ImagineeringRICS:StrategicForesight2030 ....................................................................................11

    KeyThoughts:JustImagine!..........................................................................................................15

    STAGEONE:DIVERGENCE................................................................................................. 20

    TheStrategicQuestion......................................................................................................................21

    TheCruciblesofChange....................................................................................................................21

    1. FinancialMarketsandNewEconomics ................................................................................22

    2. GlobalGovernanceandEconomicDisparity.........................................................................23

    3. PlanetaryStewardshipinanAgeofScarcity.........................................................................24

    4. CreativeCitieswithConnectedCommunities ......................................................................26

    5. Productivity,PartnershipandPeople ...................................................................................27

    BuiltEnvironment:DrivingForces ....................................................................................................31

    SocietyandCulture .......................................................................................................................32

    TechnologyandInnovation...........................................................................................................33

    EconomicsandFinance.................................................................................................................35

    EnvironmentandEthics ................................................................................................................36

    PoliticsandGovernance................................................................................................................38

    SomeRegionalDynamics ..............................................................................................................40

    InstitutionalIssues ............................................................................................................................42

    TheFirst40....................................................................................................................................42

    40More.........................................................................................................................................46

    AndYetAFurther40.....................................................................................................................49

    3 JustImagine!

  • AndSomeFromAcademe.............................................................................................................52

    STAGETWO:EMERGENCE ................................................................................................ 57

    TheScenarios ....................................................................................................................................60

    Jazz ................................................................................................................................................63

    LordsOfMisrule ............................................................................................................................66

    WiseCounsels................................................................................................................................69

    STAGETHREE:CONVERGENCE .......................................................................................... 75

    TheBuiltEnvironment:APreferredFuture ......................................................................................76

    TheInstitution:StrategicPolicyFieldsandActionAgenda ..............................................................77

    CorePurpose.................................................................................................................................77

    FosteringForesight: ......................................................................................................................80

    EnlightenedLeadership: ...............................................................................................................83

    SynergywithAcademe: ................................................................................................................86

    CultivatingCollegiality: .................................................................................................................89

    SuffusingSustainability: ................................................................................................................ 92

    PROPOSITUM ................................................................................................................... 97

    CONTRIBUTORS,PARTICIPANTSANDINTERVIEWS99

    EXHIBITS......................................................................................................................... 102

    JANUSTheGodofTransitions

    4 JustImagine!

  • LISTOFEXHIBITSExhibit1:ASWOT'ofRICS .....................................................................................................................9

    Exhibit2:TheStrategicForesightProcess ............................................................................................13

    Exhibit3:TheVisioningProgression.....................................................................................................14

    Exhibit4:SixDimensionsofUncertainty ..............................................................................................30

    Exhibit5:KeyAxesofUncertainty ........................................................................................................59

    Exhibit6:CriticalDimensionsofUncertainty .......................................................................................59

    Exhibit7:Wildcards ..............................................................................................................................61

    Exhibit8:DimensionsOfUncertainty...................................................................................................62

    Exhibit9:StrategicPolicyFields............................................................................................................77

    Exhibit10:BehaveYourself! ...............................................................................................................104

    Exhibit11:WhatWouldGoogleDo? ..................................................................................................105

    Exhibit12:Brainstorming....................................................................................................................106

    Exhibit13:GlobalRisksLandscape2011 ............................................................................................109

    5 JustImagine!

  • PRELUDE

    Exordium

    Toshapethefutureyoumustfirstimagineit.

    Wetendtooverestimatechangeintheshortrunandunderstateitinthelong.Twentyfiveyears

    agonoonewouldhaveimaginedtheimpacttheinternet,theworldwidewebandthemobilephone

    wouldhaveintherealmofallpervasiveinformationandcommunication.TheHumanGenome

    Projecthadnotbegun;theBerlinwallwasstillstanding;therewasnoEuropeanUnionorWorld