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Results Q1 2011 Investor presentation

Results Q1 2011 Investor presentation - Tryg FINAL Investor presentation... · Certain statements in this presentation are based on th e beliefs of our management as well as ... Return

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Results Q1 2011

Investor presentation

2

ContentsFacts about Tryg 4Structure of the Nordic insurance markets 5Headlines Q1 2011 7Key figures 8Segment performance in Q1 2011 10Combined ratio drivers Q1 10 / Q1 11 11Quarterly claims ratio – Corporate 12Expenses 13Discount rates 14Investment results Q1 15Provisions and run-off 16Capitalisation 17Outlook 18Underlying claims development 20Average claims and frequency 21Large and weather claims development 23Premium hikes 25Development in average premiums 26Customer retention - Private 27Major claims initiatives – annual benefits 28Danish market workers’ compensation – challenging 29Makro development and inflation 30Key figures – Private, Commercial and Corporate 32Assets allocation 36Key figures 2004-2010 and concensus 2011-12 37

AppendixGeographical segments 38Economic key figures in the Nordics 39Nordic peers 40

3

Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by

and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of

historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and

future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”,

“plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.

A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking

statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the

competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or

terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance.

We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect

our future performance and the industry in which we operate.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be

incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as

anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.

We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual

results, except as may be required by law.

4

Share

performance since IPO (incl. dividends)

Shareholder breakdown

Facts about Tryg

• A true Nordic platform • Prudent underwriting and risk selection • Exceed customer expectation • Vision – to be perceived as the leading

peace-of-mind provider in the Nordic region

Gross

premium

split 2010

2.99.1

38.5

49.5

DenmarkNorwaySwedenFinland

Percentage

13

17

10

60

Danishinstitutional Non-DanishinstitutionalSmallershareholdersTryghedsGruppen

Percentage

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Oct/2005 Apr/2006 Oct/2006 Apr/2007 Oct/2007 Apr/2008 Oct/2008 Apr/2009 Oct/2009 Apr/2010 Oct/2010 Apr/2011

Tryg Euro Insurance index

5

Structure of the Nordic insurance markets

A lka, 3 .5

T ryg, 20 .7

C odan, 12.9

A lm. Brand,

10 .0

I f, 5 .1

O ther, 24 .1

Top, 17 .8

Gjens idige,

5 .9

If, 25 .7

T ryg, 17 .1

Gjens idige,

27.9Spare

bank1,

10 .8

O ther, 18.5

O ther, 17 .4

Läns forsäkri

ngar, 28 .8

Folksam,

15.2

C odan, 16.0Moderna,

3 .7

I f, 18 .9

If, 24.2

Tryg, 2.4

Pohjo la, 27.6Tapio la, 18.5

Fennia, 9.5

Other, 17.8

Denmark

DKK 46.7bn/EUR 6.3bn (Q1 10)Norway

NOK 43.0bn/EUR 5.4bn (Q4 10)

Sweden

SEK 60.4bn/EUR 6.4bn (Q4 10)

Finland

EUR 3.5bn (Q4 10) incl. Tryg (EUR 84m)

Percentage Percentage

PercentagePercentage

Folksam, 4.5

Codan, 9.6

Tryg, 11.7

Other, 29.3

If, 17.4

Topdan-mark, 5.4

Länsfor-sikring, 8.5

Gjensdige, 9.1

Pohjo la, 4.5

Nordic market

EUR 21.6bn

Percentage

66 13. maj 2011

Overview Q1 2011

7

Headlines Q1 2011

Premium growthOrganic growth in local currency

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Q108 Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310*

Q410

Q111

%

Combined ratio

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

• Combined ratio of 95.9 vs 108.6 in Q1 2010• 5.4% premium growth driven by Private Nordic with 9% growth• Claims ratio of 75.7 compared with 88.9 in Q1 2010. • Q1 2011 positively impacted by normal winter• Cost ratio of 16.6 underlines cost control. Denmark/Norway expense ratio of only 15.5.• Agreement on salary reductions for tied agents in Denmark and renewal of IT contract with CSC.

108.6

95.9

8

Key figures Q1 2011 Change

Q1 2011/DKKm Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2010

Gross premiums earned 4,650 5,038 388

Gross claims ratio 88.9 75.7 13.2

Business ceded as % of gross premiums 2.5 3.6 -1.1

Claims ratio, net of ceded business 91.4 79.3 12.1

Gross expense ratio 17.2 16.6 0.6

Combined ratio 108.6 95.9 12.7

Combined ratio before run-off 112.0 99.5 12.5

Technical result -354 276 630

Return on investments after technical interest 204 105 -99

Profit/loss before tax -113 361 474

Profit/loss on continuing business -85 271 356

Profit/loss for the period -102 271 373

9

Key figures

Claims ratio (ex winter 2010)

67.565.1

71.6

66.2

69.5

72.771.6

74.7 74.373.0

82.1

73.475.7

60

65

70

75

80

85

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Gross premiumDKKm

4,000

4,400

4,800

5,200

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Expense ratio

15

16

17

18

19

20

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Combined ratio (ex winter 2010)

87.4 86.7

90.489.3

91.0 91.5 92.1

94.1 93.992.5

99.2

95.5 95.9

85

90

95

100

105

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

10

Segment performance in Q1 2011

107.8

95.194.3

70

80

90

100

110

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011

100.2

137.7

105.3

70

90

110

130

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011

Private Nordic -

CR Commercial Nordic -

CR Corporate Nordic -

CR

• 9% premium growth in local currency

• CR improvement driven by normal level of winter claims and premium hikes coming in as planned

• Average premium per customer increased 3% in Norway and 8% in Denmark

• Renewal of major partner agreements on better terms

• Satisfactory underlying claims development

• 2.6% premium growth in local currency

• Combined ratio of 105.3

• Positive influence from premium hikes made in autumn 2010

• More than 3,000 customers have been through individual risk assessments

• Agreement on reduction of salaries for tied agents in Denmark

• 0.4% growth in premiums covering (DK: -2%, NO: 0% SE: 18%)

• Still tough market conditions but January 2011 renewal went better than last year

• Decrease in portfolio on workers’ comp

77.8

85.389.3

70

80

90

100

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011

11

95.9

108.6

5.0

14.7

0.6

2.5

4.9

1.0

0.2

Q1 2010 Extraordinarywinter

Premium hikes Claims inf lat ion Storm Corporate-strong Q1 2010

Expense rat io Others Q1 2011

Combined ratio drivers Q1-2010 / Q1-2011

12

Quarterly claims ratio - Corporate

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

• When adjusted for winter, claims ratio Q1 2010 was extraordinary low

13

Expenses

Breakdown of Group expense ratio

16.5 16.0 15.5 15.614.5 14.1 13.8

0.4 0.8 1.3 1.52.7

2.92.8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11

17.0 16.9 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.0 16.6

Denmark & Norway Finland & Sweden

Expense ratio

16.616.2

15.5

16.4

15.515.6

16.0

50.0

60.464.5

45.8

24.130.1

22.9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11

Denmark & Norway Finland & Sweden

Data before 2009 is not corrected for the sale of Marine Hull business.

• Decreasing trend in no. of employees continues

• Strict hiring policy continues

• New agreement with tied agents in Denmark approved

No. of employees

42854280 4280

4291

4268

Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11

14

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0%

Discount rates

Interest rates are increasing after dive in 2010

Discounting effect Q1 2011 only slightly higher than Q1 2010

Market expects increasing interest rates in 2011

1% increase in interest level will:

-increase pre-tax profit by around DKK 300m

-improve combined ratio by approx. 1 % point

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

15

Investment result Q1

Gross

investment

return(mio. DKK)

Bonds

1,185

Equities

261

Real estate

300

Total

1,746

Match

Result

-28mMismatch

0.01%

Free

investment

Result

188mReturn

2.1 %

Assets Return

Q1 2011

32.2 mia. DKK

9.4 mia. DKK

Gross

investment

return(DKKm)

Bonds

5

Equities

99

Real estate

56

Total

160

Match

Mismatch

0.01%

Free

investment

Result

188mReturn

2.1%(≈

8.5% p.a.)

Assets Return

Q1 2011

32.2bn

9.4bn

16

Provisions and run-off

561683

824

182

792 800

283

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011

21,261 20,410 21,104 19,71522,470

24,883 24,649

5,183 5,173 5,4035,100

6,208

6,8199,352

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q12011

Relative Run-off/claims provisions

Insurance provision, DKKm

1.8%

3.0%

4.2% 4.1%3.6% 3.9%

3.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q12011

Run-off net, DKKm

Premium provisions Claims provisions

• Total provisions increased by DKK

2.3bn in Q1 2011 due to seasonal

increase in premium provisions

• Stable run-off result

Q1 2011 annualised

17

Capitalisation

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

2008

bef

ore

payo

utQ1

09Q2

09Q3

09

2009

bef

ore

payo

utQ1

2010

Q2 20

10Q3

2010

2010

bef

ore

payo

utQ1

2011

Capital requirement Buffer (5%) Surplus capital

8%3%

18

Outlook

Mid-term

Medium term target is return on equity of more than 20% after tax

This implies a combined ratio level of 90% including potential run-off and

at current interest rate level

Annual impact fromprice increases

2011 2012

DKK ~1.0bn DKK ~0.6bn

ROE after tax

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Mid

term target

• Q1 result marks first step toward reaching the target

• Initiatives helps progress but further steps are needed

• Increasing interest rates will support lower combined ratio

Claims development

20

Underlying claims development

Q1 2010

Q1 2011

Gross claims ratio

89.0 75.7

Large claims -3.0 -1.0

Weather claims 0.0 -1.1

Run-off 4.2 4.3

Interest rate 4.0 3.7

Extraordinary winter

-14.7

Underlying 79.5 81.6

Q1 2010

Q1 2011

Gross claimsratio

99.7 78.4

Large claims -2.0 -0.3

Weather claims 0.0 -1.3

Run-off 0.6 1.1

Interest rate 2.9 2.5

Extraordinary winter

-17.1

Underlying 84.1 80.4

Group

Private andCommercial

Price increases startsTo improve underlying

development

80%

84%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11

Q1 usually has the highest claims ratio primarily due to normal winter effect

Private and Commercial – underlying claims ratio

21

8090

100110120130140150160

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1A t l Adj

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

Average claims and frequency

8090

100110120130140150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

Frequency

private cars

NO

Average

claims private house NO*Average

claims private cars

NO

Frequency

private house NO

Actual

vs

adj. average*

Actual

vs

adj. Average*

Actual

vs

adj. average*

Actual

vs

adj. average*

*Average

adjusted

for seasonal

effects

and long term trends

22

80

90

100

110

120

130

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

Average claims and frequency

80

90

100

110

120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

Frequency

private cars

DK

8090

100110120130140150160

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

Average

claims private house DK**

**Excl. Storm and extraordinary

winter

Average

claims private cars

DK

Frequency

private house DK**

80859095

100105110115120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1

Actual

vs

adj. average*

Actual

vs

adj. average*

Actual

vs

adj. average*

Actual

vs

adj. average*

*Average

adjusted

for seasonal

effects

and long term trends

23

Large and weather claims development

Large claims gross

466537 491

813

50

597

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11

• Large claims gross amounted to DKK 50m in Q1 2011 – lower than anticipated.

• Weather claims lower than expected.

• Expected large claims level increased by 15% in 2011 and weather claims increased by 30%.

Weather claims (gross)

202332

112 121291

570

200

400

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11

DKKm

Expected full year level based on history

DKKm

Expected full year level based on history

Profitability initiatives and focus areas

25

Premium hikes

02468

101214

2009 2010 2011

Private Property M otor Property

Norway

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011

Private Property Other Private Property

Denmark

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011

Private Property M otor Other Private

Finland

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011

Private Property M otor Other Private

Sweden

% %

%%

26

Development in average premiumsMotor insurance - average premium

(Index 2005 =100)

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

House insurance - average premium(Index 2005 = 100)

90

100

110

120

130

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Average price has declined for a number of years.

Increase past 12 months:

2.4 %

4.8 %

Pricing in House lagging claims development.

Increase past 12 months:

13.7 %

8.4 %

27

Customer retention – Private

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

Customer retention rate

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11

• Retention rate in Norway is gradually improving

• Retention rate stable in Denmark despite premium hikes.

• Retention primarily decreasing among customers with only one product

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011

2+ products

1 product

28

Major claims initiatives - annual benefits

Improved

processesE-auction

etc. DKK 50m

Improved

processesE-auction

etc. DKK 50m

RecourseDKK 10m

RecourseDKK 10m

Alarm agreementDKK 10m

Alarm agreementDKK 10m

Reduce

loanercar

costsDKK 10m

Reduce

loanercar

costsDKK 10m

Improved

discountCar

spare partsDKK 25m

Improved

discountCar

spare partsDKK 25m

Reduce

fraudPersonal

linesDKK 10m

Reduce

fraudPersonal

linesDKK 10m

Large claims Building insurance

DKK 25m

Large claims Building insurance

DKK 25m

Windscreen

claims DKK 20m

Windscreen

claims DKK 20m

29

Danish market workers’ comp. - challenging

Number of awarded loss of ability

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 year later 2 years later 3 years later 4 years later 5 years later 6 years later 7 years later

• Figures shows how loss of ability claims are determined by National Board of Industrial Injuries

• Rapid increase in number of awards between 2007 and 2008

• Especially many awards of temporary loss

• Underlines uncertainty in development

Source: NBII statistics

30

Macro development and inflation

Building costs

Motor repair costs

GDPChange

Change

Change

CPI

0.1

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 0.0

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.0

-0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.0

0.0

0.00.0 0.0

0%

2%

4%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2011 and 2012 are Tryg estimates

3131 13. maj 2011

Business areas

32

Private Nordic

Gross premium DKKm

1,900

2,150

2,400

2,650

2,900

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Expense ratio - Private

14

16

18

20

22Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

08Q1

09Q2

09Q3

09Q4

09Q1

10Q2

10Q3

10Q4

10Q1

11

Clams ratio(ex winter 2010)

60

65

70

75

80

85

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Combined ratio (ex winter 2010)

85

90

95

100

105

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

33

Commercial Nordic

Gross premium DKKm

800

900

1,000

1,100

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Expense ratio

20

22

24

26

28Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

08Q1

09Q2

09Q3

09Q4

09Q1

10Q2

10Q3

10Q4

10Q1

11

Claims ratio(ex winter 2010)

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Combined ratio (ex winter 2010)

80

90

100

110

120

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

34

Corporate

Gross premium DKKm

1,150

1,250

1,350

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Expense ratio

8

10

12

14

16Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

08Q1

09Q2

09Q3

09Q4

09Q1

10Q2

10Q3

10Q4

10Q1

11

Claims ratio(ex winter 2010)

50

60

70

80

90

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Combined ratio (ex winter 2010)

70

80

90

100

110

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

3535 13. maj 2011

Appendix

36

Assets allocation

Total assets allocation

6

22

53

91 5

4EquitiesReal estateCov. BondsGovt.DepositsHigh yieldOther

Percentage

Assets allocation

in the match portfolio

57

27 61

Cov. BondsGovt.DepositsOthers

Percentage

Assets allocation

in the free portfolio

726

2

48

15

2EquitiesReal estateCov. BondsGovt.High yieldOther

Percentage

37

Key figures 2004-10 and consensus for 2011-12Consensus

In DKKm 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gross

premium

income 15,266 15,705 15,715 16,262 16,976 17,862 19,475 20,362 21,143Gross claims incurred -10,425 -11,159 -10,292 -10,448 -11,473 -12,882 -15,617Operating expenses -2,611 -2,662 -2,662 -2,730 -2,964 -3,056 -3,304Ceeded business -708 -7 -554 -553 -598 -520 -313Technical interest, net 185 170 337 494 491 158 134Technical

result 1,707 2,047 2,544 3,025 2,432 1,562 375 1,609 2,012

Investment income, net 371 894 1,228 340 -988 1,086 570 311 318

Pre-tax

profit 2,052 2,913 3,741 3,314 1,395 2,610 941 1,905 2,312

Tax -556 -788 -632 -893 -513 -625 -265Net income 1,421 2,097 3,211 2,266 846 2,008 593 1,409 1,725

Total insurance

provision 25,212 26,757 25,957 26,916 25,193 29,042 32,031Shareholders' equity 6,802 8,215 9,951 10,010 8,244 9,631 8,458

Earnings

per share 22.0 31.3 45.5 33.5 12.8 31.2 10.8 23.1 28.6Cash dividend per share 10.0 21.0 33.0 17.0 6.5 15.5 4.0 12.51 15.40Stock

buy

back per hare 21.0 12.5 0.0

Combined

ratio 90.0 88.2 85.9 84.4 88.2 92.2 98.8 93.0 91.5

38

Geographical segments

Denmark SwedenDkkm Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Dkkm Q1 2010 Q1 2011

Gross premiums 2389 2498 Gross premiums 340 463

Technical result -139 240 Technical result -68 -28

Key ratios Key ratiosGross claims ratio 91.0 73.6 Gross claims ratio 92.9 80.1Business ceded as % of gross premiums 0.7 4.0 Business ceded as % of gross premiums -2.4 4.5Gross expense ratio 14.8 14.1 Gross expense ratio 30 23.3Combined ratio 106.5 91.7 Combined ratio 120.5 107.9

Norway FinlandDkkm Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Dkkm Q1 2010 Q1 2011

Gross premiums 1780 1925 Gross premiums 141 161

Technical result -133 65 Technical result -15 -1

Key ratios Key ratiosGross claims ratio 85.8 76.8 Gross claims ratio 83.7 82.0Business ceded as % of gross premiums 6.0 3.5 Business ceded as % of gross premiums 0.7 -0.6Gross expense ratio 16.4 17.4 Gross expense ratio 28.4 21.7Combined ratio 108.2 97.7 Combined ratio 112.8 103.1

39

Economic key figures in the Nordics

Denmark Sweden

2011 2012 2011 2012

GDP growth 1.8 1.9 GDP growth 4.5 2.8

Inflation 2.0 Inflation 2.7

Unemployment 4.2 Unemployment 7.3

Current account balance in % of GDP

4.2Current account balance in % of GDP

6.4

Budget balance in % of GDP 2010

Budget balance in % of GDP 2010

Norway Finland

2011 2012 2011 2012

GDP growth 2.2 2.3 GDP growth 3.0 3.4

Inflation 1.8 Inflation 2.5

Unemployment 3.5 Unemployment 7.7

Current account balance in % of GDP

13.8Current account balance in % of GDP

2,0

Budget balance in % of GDP 2010

Budget balance in % of GDP 2010

Source: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Nordea Markets, January 2011

3.8 6.8

3.4 7.1

2.0

3.8

3.0

6.4

2.0

16.1

2.1

2,1

1.1 1.7

12.0 14.5

-4.5 -3.3

-2,0 -1,3

40

Nordic peers

Premium growth in local currency (%)

If

GjensidigeTrygGjensidige

Tryg excl. Moderna

-4

-1

2

5

8

11

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q12011

Combined ratio

if…

Tryg

Gjensidige

82

86

90

94

98

102

106

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q12011

Gjensidige excl.Nykredit