Resilience Overview - Energy Exchange › wp-content › tracks › track4 › T4S… · Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade Welcome! 2 Photos: top left, visiting

Rhode Island Convention Center • Providence, Rhode Island

Resilience Overview

Session: Regional Resiliency Planning in the Federal Sector

Nicolas BakerDOE-FEMP

August 11, 2016

Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade

Welcome!

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Photos: top left, visiting a solar PV array in Antigua designed to enhance resiliency; top right, ASEAN nations addressing climate change resilience at the 4th Annual RE Week in Iloilo City; bottom left, Antigua and Barbuda acknowledge risks of sea level rise in their NDCs for COP21; bottom right, Cities like Frankfurt, Germany are beginning to discus s climate change and resilience. Photo credits: Eliza Hotchkiss, NREL


Overview

Resilience has many definitions, varying within sectors and between sectors:

Federal definitions:– Executive Order 13693 defines resilience as "the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing

conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions".

– DOE's Office of Electricity has a definition of resilience as "the ability of an energy facility to recover quickly from damage to any of its components or to any of the external systems on which it depends".

– Resilience is defined in the Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21) as the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. Resilience includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents.

– NIST has a number of definitions for resilience in their Community Resilience Planning Guide resulting from a series of stakeholder groups.

An example of a state’s definition:– The Colorado Resiliency and Recovery Office (CRRO) defines resiliency as “the ability of communities to

rebound and positively adapt to or thrive amidst changing conditions or challenges -- including disasters and changes in climate -- and maintain quality of life, healthy growth, economic vitality, durable systems and conservation of resources for present and future generations.”

An example of definitions cities can use:– The Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities defines urban resilience as “the capacity of individuals,

communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience.”

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/19/executive-order-planning-federal-sustainability-next-decade

https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/HR-Report-final-081710.pdf

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/presidential-policy-directive-critical-infrastructure-security-and-resil

http://www.nist.gov/el/resilience/upload/NIST-SP-1190v2.pdf

https://sites.google.com/a/state.co.us/coloradounited/resilient

http://www.100resilientcities.org/resilience#/-_/


Overview

Resilience is being used across the globe and is a new ‘buzz’ word.

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Disaster Recovery

Resilience


Overview

Resilience and Climate Adaptation are not technically the same thing.

5

Resiliency

Climate Adaptation

Progress Report of

the Interagency

Climate Change

Adaptation Task

Force

1st National

Disaster

Recovery

Framework

National

Action Plan for

Managing

Freshwater

Resources

Federal Agencies

Released Climate

Change Adaptation

Plans

Progress

Report:

Highlighting

Federal

Actions on

Climate

Preparednes

s &

Resilience

1st National

Preparedness

report

Exec Order

13514,

Federal

Leadership in

Environmenta

l, Energy &

Economic

Performance

Executive Order

13547

Stewardship of

the Ocean, Our

Coasts, and the

Great Lakes

Presidential

Policy

Directive/

PPD-8:

National

Preparedness

Presidential

Policy Directive

(PPD) on

Critical

Infrastructure

Security and

Resilience

Exec

Order

136531,

Preparing

the U.S.

for the

Impacts of

Climate

Change

National

Policy for

the

Stewardship

of the

Ocean, Our

Coasts, and

the Great

Lakes

Implement-

ation Plan

CCA Plans of

Federal

Departments

& Agencies

CCA

Policy

(EPA)

Exec Order

13690:

Establishing a

Federal Flood

Risk

Management

Standard & a

Process for

Further Soliciting

and Considering

Stakeholder Input

Exec Order

13693--

Planning for

Federal

Sustainability

in the Next

Decade

President’s

Climate

Action Plan

announced

Exec Order

13677-Climate

Resilient

International

Development

1st National Climate

Adaptation SummitWorkshop on U.S. energy sector

vulnerabilities to climate change and

extreme weather

Interagency Climate Change

Adaptation Task Force

Climate Change and Water Workgroup of

the Advisory Committee on Water

Information (ACWI)

Task Force on

State, Local, and

Tribal Leaders

Task Force on

Climate

Prepared-ness

and Resilience

Hurricane Sandy

Rebuilding Task Force


Overview

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Snapshot of DOE + Resilience:- FEMP

- CEQ Preparedness Pilot for the State of Colorado

- Resiliency tools and analyses- Office of Electricity

- CEQ Preparedness Pilot for the State of Colorado

- Resiliency tools and analyses- EPSA

- Partnership for Energy Sector Climate Resilience

- U.S. Energy Sector Climate Change Vulnerability Report

- Office of Indian Energy- Strategic, resilient energy planning

workshops with tribes- Sustainability Performance Office

- Vulnerability and resilience assessments of DOE’s own facilities

Just to name a few…


Overview

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NREL is helping others explore the interdependencies between operations, lifestyles, energy, and water in the context of resilience. Illustration: Bill Gillies, NREL (modified).


Our Speakers

Dr. Judsen Bruzgul, ICF Kathleen Judd, PNNL

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Regional and Municipal Resiliency Planning

Session: Regional Resilience Planning in the Federal Sector

Judsen Bruzgul, PhDICF InternationalAugust 11, 2016

Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade11

Resilience Planning at Many Scales


Aligning Level of Analysis with Decisions

Source: DOE unpublished

NED elevation Updated Lidar Local GPS surveys

SLR with local tide gauge adjustments

SLOSH storm surge modeling

Advanced storm surge modeling on top of SLR projections

Asset capacity estimates

Regional asset cost estimates

Local asset cost estimates

Regional VOLL estimates from literature Local VOLL study

Land Elevation

Sea Level Rise

Storm Surge

Asset capacity Local asset capacities

Asset Replacement Costs

Asset Damage

Assume 100% damage

Generic damage functionsAsset-specific damage functions

Rapid screening analysis Detailed engineering-level analysis

Indirect cost estimates

Dir

ect

an

d

Ind

ire

ct C

ost

s o

f Im

pac

ts

Exp

osu

reV

uln

era

bili

ty


• Variation in:– Climate hazards

– Asset base and data quality

– Stakeholders (including their interests and responsibilities)

– Decisions

• Interdependencies

• Alignment of local and regional resilience strategies

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Challenges to Resilience Planning across and within Regions

Figure: Wilbanks, et al. 2012


Resilience Planning at the Regional Scale


USFWS Vulnerability Assessments

Objective: Provide the Pacific Region with information on the constructed assets most likely to be at risk to climate change impacts • Wildlife Refuges (63)

• Fish Hatcheries (25)

• Other (18)


USFWS Vulnerability Assessments

Objective: Provide the Pacific Region with information on the constructed assets most likely to be at risk to climate change impacts • Wildlife Refuges (63)

• Fish Hatcheries (25)

• Other (18)


Climate Stressor Coverage within the Region

Sea Level Rise Inland Flooding

Landslides Wildfire Extreme Heat

Washington

Oregon

Idaho

Hawaii -- n/a n/a

Midway n/a n/a n/a n/a

Guam n/a n/a n/a n/a

Baker Island n/a n/a n/a n/a

Howland Island n/a n/a n/a n/a

Jarvis Island n/a n/a n/a n/a

American Samoa n/a n/a n/a n/a

= Yes, with primary data source = Yes, with location-specific data sourcen/a = not applicable-- No coverage, though stressor may be applicable


Building Blocks of Vulnerability

Asset location & spatial analysis of exposure

Facility Condition Index (SAMMS)

Historic Status (SAMMS)

Adaptive Capacity

Sensitivity

Exposure

Current Replacement Value (SAMMS)

Asset Material (SAMMS)

Remaining Service Life (RIP)

Pavement Condition Rating (RIP)

Road/Trail Class (RIP)

Vulnerability


Linking Vulnerability Assessment to Resilience Planning within a Region


Resilience Planning at the Municipal Scale


• Why Climate Change Matters to Philadelphia– Sea Level Rise, Storm

Flooding, and Extreme Heat– Potential costs of climate

change

• Reducing the Risks– Existing resilience efforts– Early implementation

opportunities– Interdependencies and

opportunities for collaboration—system based strategies

• Capital Planning

Resilience Planning at the Municipal Scale: Philadelphia


Collaboration: Every Department!



Increase stormwater system capacity and functionality

Integrate flood protection strategies at vulnerable water and water pollution control plants and pump stations

Consider installing pumps at gravity-driven Philadelphia Water outfalls that discharge into tidal zones

Support a regional transportation and utility sea level rise vulnerability assessment to determine hot spots or weak links

Determine low-lying substation vulnerabilities and outline options for adaptation and mitigation; coordinate with DOE on vulnerable infrastructure

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System-Based Strategies


Example Decision Tree: Discrete Project, Existing Asset/Retrofit• Does the facility house

people, or contents that are climate or temperature sensitive?

• What is the lifetime of the facility?

• Is there a plan to install an HVAC system?

• If needed:– Reduce building thermal load– Increase HVAC reliability– Monitor temperatures over

time

Risk Screening: Extreme Heat


Lessons Learned

• Understand the decision context and stakeholders

• Use cost-effective and tiered vulnerability assessment approaches tailored to decision needs

• Use readily available data (asset, climate, etc.)

• Consider system-level impacts and resilience measures (even when assessing asset-level vulnerability)

• Utilize maps and other tools to reach varied audiences

• Integrate resilience planning into existing processes


Judsen [email protected]

http://www.icfi.com/markets/climate

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THANK YOU!!



Climate Resilience Planning at the Site-Level: A Tale of Two DOE Sites

Session: Regional resilience planning in the federal sector

Kathleen JuddPacific Northwest National Laboratory

August 11, 2016

PNNL-SA-119801


Site-Level Resilience Planning Framework

Impacts

Vulnerability of Core Systems & Infrastructure

• Sensitivity• Adaptive capacity

Climate Exposures• Past / Current • Future

Adaptation Plans• Reinforce existing measures• Identify new measures• Integrate into operations• Monitor change

Significance for Mission & Operations• Mission attainment• Operating/maintenance costs• System reliability• Safety

Adapted from Moss et al, 2016. http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1240754

http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1240754


• 1 mi2, developed and agric. land• 4,400 employees• 89 buildings, footprint growing• Lab-intensive facilities

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A Tale of Two DOE Sites… that share a border

• 586 mi2 of shrub-steppe desert• 5,000 employees• 1002 buildings, footprint shrinking• Extensive infrastructure (power, water…)

PNNL Site Hanford Site

Completing the safe cleanup of the Hanford Site and support the transition to

post-cleanup activities

Advancing the frontiers of science and addressing some of the most challenging problems in energy, the environment and

national security


Climate Exposures of Concern at Site Level


Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

• Buildings

• Power supply

• Water supply

• IT services

• Worker safety & health

• Transportation

Hanford Site

• Buildings & temporary structures

• Power supply

• Water supply

• Worker safety & health

• Transportation

• Public health

• Ecosystem health

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Core Systems & Infrastructure Assessed for Potential Vulnerability


Key Internal Stakeholders• Sustainability Program

• Climate & Earth Scientists

• Facilities/Campus Planning

• Facilities Engineering

• Energy Management

• Water & Sewer Management

• Facilities & Grounds Maintenance

• Ecological / Environmental Health

• Worker Safety & Health

• IT Services

• Emergency Services

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Targeted Stakeholder Engagement

Other External

Stakeholders

Key External Stakeholders

Key Internal Stakeholders

Core Planning

Team

May use/benefit from site vulnerability

assessment

Make decisions that influence site

vulnerability

Knowledge of climate impacts and

ownership of sustainability planning


5575

88 8974

97

117

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

# D

ays

>95

F

Days Per Year with Maximum Temperature above 95F in Benton County, WA

Observed Days Max Temp >95F Projected Median Days >95F (RCP4.5)

Projected Median Days >95F (RCP8.5)

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Example Input to Climate Exposure Assessment:More High Temperature Days

Source: Climate Explorer http://climateexplorer.habitatseven.work/

http://climateexplorer.habitatseven.work/


Review of Plans, Procedures & Assessments

Example Internal Plans

• Master construction & siting plans

• Emergency management plans

• Facility hazard assessments

• Environmental impact studies

• Building engineering design standards

• Adverse weather procedures

Example External Plans

• WA State Climate Response Strategy

• Columbia River Basin Climate Impact Assessment

• Utility infrastructure replacement redundancy/replacement plans


Defining Disruption Thresholds: Heat Stress Example

Acclimatized Worker(Wet Bulb Globe Temperature )

Work Demands Light Moderate Heavy Very Heavy

100% 85.1°F 81.5°F 78.8°F

75% Work;25% Rest

86.9°F 83.3°F 81.5°F

50% Work;50% Rest

88.7°F 85.1°F 83.3°F 81.5°F

25% Work;75% Rest

90.5°F 87.8°F 86.0°F 85.1°F

Screening Criteria for Heat Stress Exposure

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Increased degradation rate of building exterior and HVAC

Increased costs for energy use and facility maintenance; Setbacks and evaporative cooling will be less effective

Higher initial cost of building (envelope, HVAC)

Utility could limit power distribution if taxed by higher demand/lower supply

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PNNL Vulnerability Assessment Example:Impact of High Temperatures on Buildings

Preventative maintenance plans

reviewed annually

Cool roofs are the design default

Maximize use of light-colored materials

for roofs & hard-paved areas

Shade trees placed near buildings

Building orientation optimized

Evaluating a mobile chiller to boost

systems stressed by heat

Vulnerabilities

Assessment New Measures Integrate system degradation checks into

preventative maintenance plans

Add a check for remaining life expectancy in

the 5-year condition assessment

Track equipment life relative to life expectancy

assumptions; adjust in LCC analyses if needed

Use building control system to alternate

schedules to reduce power load if needed

Model temperature increases in new designs


High temperatures increase potential for heat stress on outdoor workers (high)

Worker productivity, work schedules, and costs are affected by more frequent enactment of heat stress management procedures (high)

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Hanford Vulnerability Assessment Example:Impact of High Temperatures on Worker Health & Safety (& Restrictions)

Outdoor workers are primarily at tank farms,

remediation sites, building demolition and

construction sites

Contractors have Heat Stress Control

Procedures in place, which manage risk for

different work conditions including use of

personal protective equipment (PPE)

Control strategies (e.g. 50/50 work rest regimens,

tropical shifts) protect worker health and safety

but impact schedule; can require more workers

Have 3 year baseline of wet bulb globe temp

(WBGT) data, but not examined for trends

Vulnerabilities

New Measures

Implement centralized data collection of

heat-related activity restrictions (days

exceeding WBGT work limits) and assess

impacts on long-term basis

Explore increased use of robotics and

automation in jobs subject to heat stress

Investigate new types of PPE to prevent

overheating in outdoor workers

Assessment


Risk Categorization: PNNL

What PNNL systems are most likely to be affected by climate change in ways that pose risks to mission or operations?

Core System for Mission

DeliveryWildfire

High

Temperatures

Intense

Precipitation

& Flooding

DroughtStorms and

WindsIce Storms

Buildings High High High Medium Medium Medium

Power Supply Low High Low Medium Medium Low

Water Supply Low Low Low Low Low Low

IT Services Low Medium Medium Low Medium Low

Worker Safety & Health Medium Low Low Low Low Low

Transportation Low Low Low Low Low Low

Climate Exposure


What Hanford systems are most likely to be affected by climate change in ways that pose risks to mission or operations?

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Risk Categorization: Hanford

WildfireHigh

Temperatures

Intense

Precipitation

& Flooding

DroughtStorms and

WindsIce Storms

Buildings & Temporary

Structures 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3

Power Supply1.3 1.42 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5

Water Supply (and

Quality) 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.1

Public Health 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6

Worker Safety & Health

(& Restrictions) 2.3 2.4 1.4 1.2 2.2 1.8

Ecosystem Recovery 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.9

Climate Exposures

Core Systems for

Mission Delivery


• Stakeholder engagement strategy should be site and topic-specific

• A well-planned data collection strategy improves the process

• Make it participatory but expert-driven - let core system reps prioritize actions that they’ll own

• Integrate resilience planning as an immediate follow-up to vulnerability assessment

• Don’t end the process without establishing real metrics to monitor and a plan for reviewing changes in vulnerability

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Lessons Learned


Climate Resilience Planning Project Leads

Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute [email protected]

Kathleen Judd, Building Performance Team [email protected]

Hanford Site POC

Scott Davis, Sustainability Coordinator [email protected]

PNNL POC

Mike Moran, Sustainability Program Mgr, [email protected]

More information on PNNL’s work with climate change

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Questions

mailto:[email protected]





Climate exposures & core systems identified

• Review regional climate hazards

• Identify at risk systems and infrastructure

Stakeholder team & roles established

• Planning leads

• Core system owners

• External system owners (targeted)

• Climate/earth science SMEs

Current plans & adaptive capacity assessed

• Review plans to manage core systems

• Interview core system owners

• Document potential vulnerabilities and measures in place

Vulnerabilities assessed

• Core system owners review draft vulnerabilities

• Vet assessment with climate SMEs and broader group

• Establish most significant vulnerabilities to focus planning

Adaptation plans defined

• Define measures to build resilience to priority vulnerabilities

• Plan to integrate measures

• Share with other stakeholders

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Climate Resilience Planning Process


Temperature Change in Pacific Northwest

Figure source: Climate Impacts Group, based on projections used in IPCC 2013 Mote et al. 2013

Projected Change in Average Annual PNW Temperature

(relative to 1950-1999 average)

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Example Input to Exposure Assessment: Increased Wildfire Risk

496 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES

2 1 : N O R T H WES T

Adaptive Capacity and Implications for VulnerabilityAbility to prepare for these changes varies with land ownership

and management priorities. Adaptation actions that decrease

forest vulnerability exist, but none is appropriate across all of

the Northwest’s diverse climate threats, land-use histories, and management objectives.

86,110 Surface and canopy thinning

can reduce the occurrence and effects of high severity fire in

currently low severity fire systems, like drier eastern Cascades

forests,111

but may be ineffective in historically high-severity-

fire forests, like the western Cascades, Olympics, and some

subalpine forests. It is possible to use thinning to reduce tree mortality from insect outbreaks,

86,112 but not on the scale of

the current outbreaks in much of the West.

Key Message 4: Adapting Agriculture

While the agriculture sector’s technical ability to adapt to changing condit ions can of f set

some adverse impacts of a changing climate , there remain crit ical concerns f or agriculture

w ith respect to costs of adaptat ion, development of more climate resilient technologies

and management, and availability and t iming of w ater.

Agriculture provides the economic and cultural foundation

for Northwest rural populations and contributes substantively to the overall economy. Agricultural commodities and food

production systems contributed 3% and 11% of the region’s

gross domestic product, respectively, in 2009.113

Although the overall consequences of climate change will probably be lower

Figure 21.7.

(Top) Insects and fire have cumulatively

affected large areas of the Northwest and

are projected to be the dominant drivers

of forest change in the near future. Map

shows areas recently burned (1984

to 2008)97,98

or affected by insects or

disease (1997 to 2008).99

(Middle) Map indicates the increases in

area burned that would result from the

regional temperature and precipitation

changes associated with a 2.2°F global

warming100

across areas that share broad

climatic and vegetation characteristics.101

Local impacts will vary greatly within

these broad areas with sensitivity of fuels

to climate.14

(Bottom) Projected changes in the

probability of climatic suitability for

mountain pine beetles for the period

2001 to 2030 (relative to 1961 to 1990),

where brown indicates areas where pine

beetles are projected to increase in the

future and green indicates areas where

pine beetles are expected to decrease

in the future. Changes in probability of

survival are based on climate-dependent

factors important in beetle population

success, including cold tolerance,102

spring precipitation,103

and seasonal heat

accumulation.91,92

Insects and Fire in Northwest Forests

Source: 2014 National Climate Assessment, “Climate Impacts in the United States, Chapter 21 Northwest., p 496; Mote. et alAvailable at: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest

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http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest


1970’s

1980’s

1990’s

2000’s

Inputs to Exposure Assessment: Hanford Wildfires


Questions and Answers

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Questions for the Panel?


Questions and Answers

1. What are the drivers behind Federal resiliency planning?

2. Regional resiliency planning should be done in collaboration with multiple stakeholders.

3. Campus resiliency should be done in isolation without communicating broadly across jurisdictions.

4. What is the vulnerability of a site to climate change impacts a function of, exactly?

5. Are two installations or campuses in the same geographic area likely to have the same vulnerabilities to climate change?

Other questions from the audience?

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Conclusion and Resources

Thank you for joining us today!

Looking for more information? Please visit:Resilience Roadmap

www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/tech_assistance_resiliency_planning.html

ICF’s Climate Change Work:


PNNL Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change

http://www.pnnl.gov/atmospheric/

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit + Energyhttps://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/energy-supply-and-use

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http://www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/tech_assistance_resiliency_planning.html


http://www.pnnl.gov/atmospheric/

https://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/energy-supply-and-use


Stay in Touch

Email Us:

- Nic Baker (FEMP)

- Judsen Bruzgul (ICF)

- Kathleen Judd (PNNL)

- Eliza Hotchkiss (NREL)

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mailto:[email protected]?subject=Energy Exchange 2016 + Resilience

mailto:[email protected]?subject=Energy Exchange 2016+Resilience



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Resilience Overview - Energy Exchange › wp-content › tracks › track4 › T4S… · Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade Welcome! 2 Photos: top left, visiting